Have ETFs Hit The Top For 2024?

Summary

The video script discusses the performance of the speaker's Global ETF, which has seen a 14.62% return in the first half of the year, double the long-term average. Despite the expectation of a market correction, the speaker outlines factors that could drive the market upwards, including the US election year effect and potential interest rate drops. The speaker also shares their strategy for managing freed-up cash, including investing in ETFs, speculative assets like Bitcoin, and keeping a portion in a high-yield savings account. The script concludes with a cautionary note on the high-risk nature of crypto investments.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker's Global ETF has seen a significant increase of 14.62% in the first half of the year, which is double the long-term average of 7% per year.
• 🌐 Despite the positive performance, the speaker does not believe the market's upward trend will necessarily cease, citing potential headwinds that could drive the market further upwards.
• 📊 The speaker reviews the performance of their ETFs in June and shares the current status of their exit from peer-to-peer lending.
• 💰 The speaker has a strategy for the freed-up cash from their bank account, which they will not let pile up uninvested.
• 🏦 The Vanguard Total World ETF, which is the main ETF in the speaker's portfolio, has risen by 3.51% in June, contributing to the overall positive performance.
• 📉 The speaker mentions that while a market correction of around 10% is overdue, investor sentiment is not overly bullish, as indicated by the fear and greed index, suggesting the rally may continue.
• 🗳️ The speaker notes that election years in the US, such as the current one, tend to be positive for the stock market, especially towards the end of the year.
• 💹 The expected interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve and the subsequent increase in liquidity could further boost the market, particularly the US market, which significantly impacts the speaker's returns.
• 🌳 The speaker's long-term investment strategy involves buying more Global ETF shares on a monthly basis, regardless of market conditions or news.
• 💬 The speaker shares their experience with Trade Republic, a broker they use for both buying ETFs and as a high-yield savings account, highlighting the benefits of the platform.
• 🚨 The speaker warns of the high-risk nature of their speculative allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have performed poorly recently, and advises that crypto should only be a small part of one's portfolio.

Q & A

What is the performance of the Global ETF for the first half of the year 2024?

The Global ETF has performed well, standing at a 14.62% increase in the first half of 2024, which is double the long-term average of 7% per year.

How does the current ETF performance compare to the historical average?

The current ETF performance is significantly higher than the historical average, with a 14.62% increase in just six months compared to the average annual increase of 7%.

What are the potential headwinds that could drive the market further upwards in the coming months?

The potential headwinds include investor sentiment, election years in the US, and the expected interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve, which could increase liquidity and boost the market.

What is the current year-to-date return of the Vanguard Total World ETF?

The Vanguard Total World ETF has a year-to-date return of 41,000 euros as of June 2024.

How does the speaker's investment strategy in ETFs work?

The speaker's investment strategy involves buying more Global ETF shares on a monthly basis regardless of market conditions or news.

What is the speaker's current total investment in globally diversified, low-cost ETFs?

The speaker's current total investment in globally diversified, low-cost ETFs is over 332,000 euros.

How does the speaker view the current investor sentiment in relation to the market rally?

The speaker notes that investor sentiment, as indicated by the fear and greed index, is currently hovering between fear and neutral, suggesting that the rally may not be over yet.

What is the speaker's experience with Trade Republic as a broker and high-yield savings account?

The speaker uses Trade Republic not only to buy ETFs but also as a high-yield savings account, benefiting from the 3.75% per year interest rate passed on by the broker, secured by a €100,000 bank deposit guarantee.

What is the speaker's process for exiting peer-to-peer lending platforms?

The speaker's process involves selling loans on secondary markets, disabling auto-invest strategies, and withdrawing funds as they become available or are repaid from loans.

How much of the speaker's peer-to-peer investments has been withdrawn so far?

The speaker has been able to withdraw 23,450 euros, which is more than half of the sum invested in the peer-to-peer sector, within less than two weeks of stopping the investments.

What is the speaker's strategy for the cash freed up from exiting peer-to-peer investments?

The speaker plans to invest 80% into globally diversified, low-cost ETFs, 10% into speculative assets like Bitcoin, and keep the remaining 10% in cash in a Trade Republic account earning 3.75% interest per year.

How has the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum been in June and early July 2024 according to the speaker?

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed poorly, with drops of 5 to 7% in June and further declines in the first week of July, pushing their 2024 returns down to 35.6% and 33%, respectively.