Have ETFs Hit The Top For 2024?
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the performance of the speaker's Global ETF, which has seen a 14.62% return in the first half of the year, double the long-term average. Despite the expectation of a market correction, the speaker outlines factors that could drive the market upwards, including the US election year effect and potential interest rate drops. The speaker also shares their strategy for managing freed-up cash, including investing in ETFs, speculative assets like Bitcoin, and keeping a portion in a high-yield savings account. The script concludes with a cautionary note on the high-risk nature of crypto investments.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker's Global ETF has seen a significant increase of 14.62% in the first half of the year, which is double the long-term average of 7% per year.
- 🌐 Despite the positive performance, the speaker does not believe the market's upward trend will necessarily cease, citing potential headwinds that could drive the market further upwards.
- 📊 The speaker reviews the performance of their ETFs in June and shares the current status of their exit from peer-to-peer lending.
- 💰 The speaker has a strategy for the freed-up cash from their bank account, which they will not let pile up uninvested.
- 🏦 The Vanguard Total World ETF, which is the main ETF in the speaker's portfolio, has risen by 3.51% in June, contributing to the overall positive performance.
- 📉 The speaker mentions that while a market correction of around 10% is overdue, investor sentiment is not overly bullish, as indicated by the fear and greed index, suggesting the rally may continue.
- 🗳️ The speaker notes that election years in the US, such as the current one, tend to be positive for the stock market, especially towards the end of the year.
- 💹 The expected interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve and the subsequent increase in liquidity could further boost the market, particularly the US market, which significantly impacts the speaker's returns.
- 🌳 The speaker's long-term investment strategy involves buying more Global ETF shares on a monthly basis, regardless of market conditions or news.
- 💬 The speaker shares their experience with Trade Republic, a broker they use for both buying ETFs and as a high-yield savings account, highlighting the benefits of the platform.
- 🚨 The speaker warns of the high-risk nature of their speculative allocation to Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have performed poorly recently, and advises that crypto should only be a small part of one's portfolio.
Q & A
What is the performance of the Global ETF for the first half of the year 2024?
-The Global ETF has performed well, standing at a 14.62% increase in the first half of 2024, which is double the long-term average of 7% per year.
How does the current ETF performance compare to the historical average?
-The current ETF performance is significantly higher than the historical average, with a 14.62% increase in just six months compared to the average annual increase of 7%.
What are the potential headwinds that could drive the market further upwards in the coming months?
-The potential headwinds include investor sentiment, election years in the US, and the expected interest rate drop by the Federal Reserve, which could increase liquidity and boost the market.
What is the current year-to-date return of the Vanguard Total World ETF?
-The Vanguard Total World ETF has a year-to-date return of 41,000 euros as of June 2024.
How does the speaker's investment strategy in ETFs work?
-The speaker's investment strategy involves buying more Global ETF shares on a monthly basis regardless of market conditions or news.
What is the speaker's current total investment in globally diversified, low-cost ETFs?
-The speaker's current total investment in globally diversified, low-cost ETFs is over 332,000 euros.
How does the speaker view the current investor sentiment in relation to the market rally?
-The speaker notes that investor sentiment, as indicated by the fear and greed index, is currently hovering between fear and neutral, suggesting that the rally may not be over yet.
What is the speaker's experience with Trade Republic as a broker and high-yield savings account?
-The speaker uses Trade Republic not only to buy ETFs but also as a high-yield savings account, benefiting from the 3.75% per year interest rate passed on by the broker, secured by a €100,000 bank deposit guarantee.
What is the speaker's process for exiting peer-to-peer lending platforms?
-The speaker's process involves selling loans on secondary markets, disabling auto-invest strategies, and withdrawing funds as they become available or are repaid from loans.
How much of the speaker's peer-to-peer investments has been withdrawn so far?
-The speaker has been able to withdraw 23,450 euros, which is more than half of the sum invested in the peer-to-peer sector, within less than two weeks of stopping the investments.
What is the speaker's strategy for the cash freed up from exiting peer-to-peer investments?
-The speaker plans to invest 80% into globally diversified, low-cost ETFs, 10% into speculative assets like Bitcoin, and keep the remaining 10% in cash in a Trade Republic account earning 3.75% interest per year.
How has the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum been in June and early July 2024 according to the speaker?
-Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed poorly, with drops of 5 to 7% in June and further declines in the first week of July, pushing their 2024 returns down to 35.6% and 33%, respectively.
Outlines
📈 YTD ETF Performance and Market Outlook
The script opens with a reflection on the first half of the year, highlighting the impressive performance of the Global ETF, which has seen a 14.62% return in just six months, surpassing the long-term average of 7% per year. Despite the expectation of a market correction, the speaker does not anticipate a significant downturn due to several factors, including investor sentiment and the potential positive impact of the US election year and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate drop. The speaker emphasizes a consistent long-term investment strategy, which involves buying more global ETF shares monthly, regardless of market conditions or news.
💰 Portfolio Diversification and P2P Exit Strategy
The second paragraph delves into the speaker's personal investment portfolio, including the decision to exit peer-to-peer lending platforms. The speaker provides an update on the process of withdrawing funds from various P2P platforms, detailing the ease and speed of the process on some platforms like Robocash and the more gradual withdrawal from others like V-invest and Davum. The speaker's strategy for reallocating the withdrawn funds involves investing 80% into globally diversified low-cost ETFs, 10% into speculative assets like Bitcoin, and keeping 10% in cash in a high-yield savings account. The paragraph also touches on the speaker's speculative investments in Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have experienced a downturn in June, but the speaker remains optimistic about their potential performance for the rest of the year.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Global ETF
💡Long-term average
💡Headwinds
💡Fear and Greed Index
💡Election years
💡Interest rate drop
💡Trade Republic
💡Peer-to-peer lending
💡Speculative assets
💡Diversification
💡Risk management
Highlights
The Global ETF is up 14.62% in the first half of 2024, doubling the long-term average of 7% per year.
Several factors could drive the market further upwards in the coming months, including potential interest rate drops by the Fed and increased liquidity.
The speaker's main ETF, Vanguard FTSE All-World, increased by 3.51% in June and is up 14.62% since the start of 2024.
The ETF portfolio has an average return of 10.89% per year since 2017, now totaling over €332,000.
Despite market rallies, investor sentiment remains between fear and neutral, suggesting the rally might continue.
Election years in the US typically see positive stock market performance, especially in the last few months of the year.
The speaker continues to invest in global ETFs on a monthly basis regardless of market conditions or news.
Trade Republic offers a high-yield savings account with an ECB interest rate of 3.75% per year on uninvested cash, secured by a €100,000 bank deposit guarantee.
The speaker earned €70.69 in interest and €14 in cashback from Trade Republic in June, which was reinvested into their ETF.
Exiting peer-to-peer lending investments has been relatively easy, with substantial funds withdrawn from various platforms without major fees.
The speaker's investment strategy for freed-up cash is to allocate 80% into globally diversified low-cost ETFs, 10% into speculative assets like Bitcoin, and 10% into cash.
Bitcoin and Ethereum performed poorly in June, dropping between 5-7%, with further declines in early July.
Despite recent drops, the speaker expects Bitcoin and Ethereum to perform well over the rest of the year based on past market cycles.
The speaker emphasizes that crypto investments should only make up a small percentage of a portfolio due to high risk.
The speaker's long-term investment strategy remains unchanged since 2017, focusing on regular investments in global ETFs.
Transcripts
so the first half of the year is done
and the stock market is still moving
higher with our Global ETF standing at
Plus 14.62% in only 6 months since
that's double the long-term average of
7% per year that's surely it for the
rest of the year right well not
necessarily there are a few headwinds
which are likely to drive the market
further upwards over the coming months
which will get to today as usual we'll
also take a closer look at how my ETFs
perform in actual numbers in June and
how my exit from peer-to-peer Landing is
going in case you're here in about this
for the first time make sure you check
out my recent video for more context
since I'm not planning on having over
42,000 piling up on my bank account
uninvested I'll also tell you where I'm
moving this freed up cash instead let's
begin by looking at stocks in the form
of ETFs the largest portion of the
Investment Portfolio I share with my
wife our main ETF the Vanguard foty all
World continued moving higher Plus 3.51%
in June and is now up 14.62% since the
start of 2024 as for our ETF portfolio
in actual numbers with an average return
of 10.89% per year since 2017 we're now
sitting at over €
332,000 in globally Diversified lowcost
ETFs with a year-to-date return of plus
41,000 since it feels like the market
has gone up pretty much non-stop since
2023 many are expecting this rally to
end sometime soon and while that would
not surprise me as a correction of
around 10% is long overdue as those tend
to happen on a regular basis investor
sentiment is not as bull bullish as you
may think when looking at the fear and
greet index we were currently hovering
between fear and neutral this in turn
could mean the rally may be far from
over not only that election years in the
US like the one we're currently in tend
to be very positive for the stock market
especially during the last few months of
the year Additionally the first expected
interest rate drop by the fed and the
subsequent increase in liquidity later
this year could further boost the market
and yes in this case I'm talking about
the US market but with a current share
of 72% in an MSI world and 62% in the
footsie over world this significantly
impacts our returns AS Global Investors
either way whatever happens our
long-term investment strategy which has
served us very well so far since 2017
will remain the same we simply buy more
Global ETF shares on a monthly basis no
matter what is going on in the markets
or what the news are telling us we
should be worried about next by the way
you can find the best lowcost brokers
for ETFs in Europe linked Down Below in
the description which is a great way to
support me if you'd like to and don't
forget to subscribe whe they're there
this brings me to trade Republic one of
the Brokers I use the most not just to
buy ETFs but also as a high yield
savings account that's because they're
directly passing on the ECB interest
rate of 3.75% per year on uninvested
cash secured by a € 100,000 bank deposit
guarantee in June we earned €70 and 69
cents in interest on our savings here
plus 14 from the 1% save back using the
trade Republic card for our expenses
which was invested into our ETF of
choice the broker started rolling out
fully featured bank accounts in Germany
last month which they're able to since
they have a ger German banking license
these could be quite interesting once
they become available in other countries
across Europe like Austria where I live
however since it will likely still take
a few months for that to happen I don't
think it makes much sense to waste your
time going into too much detail just yet
after all some of the features could
change until then and I prefer sharing
my firsthand experience with you once I
have access to the new bank account
myself all right let's see how my exit
from peer to-peer larning has been going
since I've shared my experience as an
investor in this sector so far I feel
like it's only fair to share the other
side of it as well namely when you want
to withdraw money from each platform by
the way I made this decision at the end
of June if you want to find out more
about the details why make sure you
check out this recent video of mine all
right let's quickly go over my process
and what I've been able to do so far on
MOS I started last month with an account
value of over €1,000 after I made the
decision to exit peer peer Landing less
than 2 weeks ago I was already able to
sell and withdraw over 60% of what I
invested in loans dropping my account
balance below €4,000 I did not sell any
loans at a discount the fees you see
here are simply because MOS charges a
0.85% fee to the seller when using the
secondary Market this fee does not apply
if you're using the cash out function
via their automated strategy which I
wasn't using meanwhile I actually sold
my loans with rates above 13% per year
at a premium of 0.85% which you can see
here simply to cancel out the secondary
Market fee for these loans with higher
demand my overdue payments of around
2,500 will likely take some time to be
fully resolved so I'll keep checking on
my MOS account over the coming months
and years to withdraw what comes back
from this as well now es it was the
easiest to cash out I simply disabled my
aut invest strategies and set the amount
to zero and as you can see in my account
statement within only 7 minutes all of
my loans were sold to other investors
and the cash was back on my account in
this case with zero fees which is great
robocash was the second easiest to exit
as I could easily sell 98% of my loans
on the secondary Market once again with
zero fees or discounts here's how it
works just click on my investments
filter by current select each loan own
and click on sell now you just need to
wait for another investor to buy it
usually be there Auto invest it only
took a few minutes here as well and
almost everything was back in cash on my
account make sure you stop and set your
auto invest regist to Zero by the way if
you want to withdraw your money as for
Lon they luckily also have a secondary
market so I simply selected every loan I
was able to sell and place it on the
secondary Market on June 28th and within
that same day I was able to have €
1,194 back in cash on my account also
without any fees or having to Discount
my loan and since V invest does not have
a secondary Market I was only able to
withdraw about €600 worth of available
funds from repaid loans after stopping
the auto invest so far and based on my
outstanding Investments it will likely
take up to 197 days for me to be able to
withdraw everything income Marketplace
also doesn't have a secondary market so
I simply stopped my auto invest and I'm
withdrawing the money that is paid back
over time €
1,187 so far last but not least I was
able to withdraw 1,030 from davum so far
and I'll withdraw the rest as my loans
paid back over time since there's no way
to sell loans early here either all in
all I've been able to withdraw
23,45 within less than 2 weeks of
stopping my peer-to-peer Investments
more than half of the sum I had invested
in this sector now you may be asking
yourself where I'm putting this money my
strategy is pretty simple I'm investing
80% into globally Diversified lowcost
ETFs 10% into speculative assets like
Bitcoin and the remaining 10% will stay
in cash on my trade Republic account
earning 3.75% interest per year all
right now let's finish things off by
looking at a portion of my portfolio
that carries the highest Risk by far my
small spective allocation to the two
largest crypto assets Bitcoin and
ethereum both of them performed poorly
in June dropping between 5 and 7% sadly
the first week of July is looking even
worse so far pushing the 2024 returns
for both assets down to 35.6 and 33%
respectively if you're new to this
highly speculative asset class drops
like this may shock you but they're
actually quite frequent when looking at
the past all also during bull markets
and it's once again a good reminder that
crypto carries a lot of risk and should
only make up a small percentage of your
portfolio if you decide to included at
all as it's definitely not for everyone
based on previous Market Cycles I do
expect these to perform well over the
rest of the year but we'll have to wait
and see all right guys that's it for my
latest investment update I hope all of
you are having a great summer so far
before I off don't forget to gently type
the like button if you enjoyed the video
and to subscribe if you haven't yet if
you'd like to support me you can find
links to my favorite Financial tools in
the description below and of course none
of our talked about today was Manda
investment advice I'm just sharing my
personal opinion based on my own
experience as an investor thank you guys
so much for watching have a wonderful
day and until next time
Ver Más Videos Relacionados
TOP 3 Altcoins To Buy Now BEFORE Crypto Pumps [100x Growth]
This does NOT Happen often...
[BTC]🚨PRICE ACTION🚨KOREKSI JADI DUMP!! | MASSIVE LIQUIDATION!! | LANJUT SIDEWAYS | #DYOR
Revealing My Entire $500K Investment Portfolio
Should We Ditch our Dividend Stocks for 5.2% on Cash?
💰 What is a Bitcoin ETF? - Complete Beginner's Guide on Bitcoin ETFs (2024 Updated)
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)