Tesla Exploded | Here's What's NEXT [Important Heads Up]

Summary

The script celebrates Tesla's impressive Q2 performance, highlighting a significant increase in energy product sales, which could add $935 million to the company's bottom line. The video discusses potential strategies to solidify Tesla's financial position and speculates on market trends, including the impact of macroeconomic factors and the inverted yield curve. It also addresses Tesla's stock volatility and the possibility of future dips, suggesting that investors might see opportunities to buy the dip, especially with upcoming events like the robo-taxi unveiling.

Takeaways

• 🎉 Tesla has reported impressive Q2 results, with a significant increase in energy products, which is a positive sign for investors.
• 📈 The energy storage business has shown a 2.3x increase in deployment compared to Q1, potentially adding $935 million to Tesla's bottom line if the same gross profit margin is maintained.
• 💰 Tesla's pricing power is evident, and the profitability of the energy business could help address negative cash flow concerns.
• 🚗 Vehicle deliveries were down by 4.76%, possibly due to a strategic shift towards battery deployment to improve financial results.
• 🔄 There is speculation that some of the financial tactics used in Q2, such as discounted financing, may have been temporary to boost delivery figures and solidify the company's position.
• 📉 The lowest interest rate for a Model Y has increased from a promotional rate, suggesting that some incentives may no longer be available.
• 🤔 The sustainability of Tesla's current financial boost is questioned, with the possibility of a one-time spike in Q2 due to specific strategies.
• 📊 The script mentions macroeconomic risks, including an indicator suggesting a potential market peak and the impact of an inverted yield curve on market sentiment.
• 📉 The speaker anticipates potential dips in Tesla's stock price before the earnings date and after the robo taxi event, suggesting opportunities for investors to buy the dip.
• 🚀 Despite potential short-term volatility, the speaker remains bullish on Tesla, citing the company's energy business and upcoming humanoid robot as reasons for optimism.
• 📝 Morgan Stanley's positive note on Tesla highlights the company's Q2 delivery beat and the importance of its energy storage deployment, reinforcing the view that Tesla is more than just an auto company.

Q & A

What is the significance of Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers?

Tesla's Q2 delivery numbers are significant because they exceeded expectations, indicating a positive trend for the company and potentially setting a strong foundation for its financial performance in the quarter.

How did Tesla's energy product sales perform in Q2 compared to the previous quarter?

Tesla's energy product sales more than doubled in Q2, with 9.4 GWh deployed, which is 2.3 times the amount deployed in Q1, showing a substantial increase in the energy storage business.

What is the potential financial impact of Tesla's energy storage business on its bottom line?

If Tesla maintains the same gross profit margin as in Q1, the increase in energy storage deployment could contribute an additional $935 million to Tesla's bottom line due to the profitability and good margins of the energy storage business.

What strategies did Tesla introduce in Q2 to solidify vehicle deliveries?

Tesla introduced discounted financing options in Q2 to incentivize buyers and solidify vehicle deliveries, which could be amortized over time to manage costs.

What concerns are raised about the sustainability of Tesla's Q2 performance?

There are concerns that some of the strategies used in Q2, such as special interest rate offers, may not be sustainable and could have been deployed to boost delivery figures temporarily.

What is the current lowest interest rate available for a Tesla Model Y according to the script?

The current lowest interest rate available for a Tesla Model Y is 6.29%, which is an increase from the previously offered rates.

What macroeconomic factors are mentioned as potential risks to Tesla's stock performance?

Macroeconomic factors such as the Goldman Sachs bull/bear market indicator, the steepening of the yield curve, and the potential for a market sell-down before an election are mentioned as potential risks to Tesla's stock performance.

What is the yield curve spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries, and what does it suggest?

The yield curve spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries is approximately 28 basis points, which is slightly less inverted than before, suggesting that the market may be signaling some pause or potential softness.

What is the potential impact of Tesla's Q2 performance on its stock price?

Tesla's Q2 performance, with increased deliveries and energy storage deployment, could positively impact its stock price, but there may also be potential dips due to macroeconomic factors or pre-earnings volatility.

What does the script suggest about the outlook for Tesla's energy business?

The script suggests that Tesla's energy business is worth paying attention to due to its profitability and the significant increase in energy storage deployment, which could contribute substantially to the company's bottom line.

What is the context of the discussion about Tesla's Q2 performance in the script?

The discussion about Tesla's Q2 performance is in the context of analyzing the company's financial health, stock performance, and potential future opportunities or challenges based on recent business developments and macroeconomic indicators.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Tesla's Q2 Surge and Energy Product Profitability

The script opens with enthusiasm for Tesla's Q2 performance, highlighting a significant increase in energy product sales, which are more than double the previous quarter's figures. The narrator suggests that if Tesla maintains the same gross profit margin as in Q1, an additional $935 million could be added to their bottom line due to the profitability of the energy storage business. This is expected to help with cash flow concerns, similar to the financing strategies introduced in Q2. The narrator also discusses the potential for amortizing the cost of discounted financing over time and expresses optimism about Tesla's Q2 results, despite concerns about the sustainability of delivery figures and the impact of interest rate offers no longer being available.

05:01

📉 Analyzing Market Indicators and Tesla's Future Prospects

In this paragraph, the focus shifts to broader market indicators and their implications for Tesla. The narrator discusses the steepening of the yield curve and its potential to signal market flatness or decline, depending on its duration. The script also touches on the possibility of a market pause, suggesting that there could be another opportunity to invest in Tesla if the market corrects. The narrator expresses a personal belief that the current spike in Tesla's performance might be temporary and that future dips could present buying opportunities. The paragraph concludes with a mention of Morgan Stanley's positive note on Tesla, emphasizing the company's non-automotive aspects and the potential for positive surprises in the energy sector.

10:02

📋 Disclaimers and Personal Perspectives on Investment

The final paragraph provides a disclaimer, clarifying that the content is not personalized financial advice and should not be considered sufficient for making investment decisions. The narrator, identifying as a financial analyst and YouTuber, emphasizes that any third-party content shown is not endorsed and that promoted products or services may benefit the narrator. The paragraph also mentions the operation of an actively managed ETF and potential long or short positions in various securities, including those discussed in the video. The narrator advises viewers to always read the PPM at house.com if considering investing in house Haack and reminds them that there is no relationship with any issuer other than as a marketer or maker.

Keywords

💡Tesla

Tesla is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company that is central to the video's theme. The company's innovations and business performance are the main focus, with the script discussing Tesla's investors, pricing power, and energy products. The video highlights Tesla's Q2 delivery beat and its potential impact on the company's financials.

💡Pricing Power

Pricing power refers to a company's ability to set or increase the prices of its products without losing customers. In the context of the video, it is mentioned that Tesla's pricing power is evident, which is significant for investors as it can lead to higher profit margins and financial growth.

💡Energy Products

Energy products in the script refer to Tesla's line of energy storage solutions, such as the Powerwall and Powerpack. The video emphasizes the growth in energy product sales, which have more than doubled compared to the previous quarter, indicating a new area of potential profitability for Tesla.

💡Gigawatts (GWs) Deployed

Gigawatts (GWs) deployed is a measure of energy storage capacity installed by Tesla. The script mentions a 2.3x increase in GWs deployed in energy products, showcasing a significant expansion in Tesla's energy storage business, which is crucial for understanding the company's growth in this sector.

💡Gross Profit Margin

Gross profit margin is a financial metric that shows how much profit a company makes after deducting the cost of goods sold, expressed as a percentage. The video suggests that if Tesla maintains the same gross profit margin as in Q1, the increased energy storage deployment could add $935 million to Tesla's bottom line.

💡Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow indicates a situation where a company's cash outflows exceed its inflows. The script discusses how the profitability of Tesla's energy storage business could help alleviate some of the concerns related to negative cash flow.

💡Vehicle Deliveries

Vehicle deliveries refer to the number of cars that Tesla has successfully handed over to customers. The script notes a 4.76% decrease in deliveries, which could be a point of concern for investors, but also suggests that Tesla might have shifted focus to battery deployment.

💡Compensation Plan

A compensation plan outlines how a company's executives, such as Elon Musk in this case, are rewarded for their performance. The video discusses Elon Musk's compensation plan and how its approval might be related to the company's efforts to solidify its financial position.

💡Robo-Taxi Event

The robo-taxi event mentioned in the script likely refers to Tesla's plans for a self-driving taxi service using autonomous electric vehicles. The video suggests that this event could be a significant catalyst for Tesla's future, but also implies that there might be a dip in the stock price around the time of the event.

💡Macro Risk

Macro risk pertains to broad economic factors that can affect all companies, such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical events. The script cautions about the potential impact of macro risks on Tesla's stock price, despite the company's positive Q2 results.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a graphical representation of the interest rates on debt for a range of maturities. The script discusses the steepening of the yield curve, which can be an indicator of economic expectations and might suggest a period of market softness or fear.

Highlights

Tesla investors celebrate an exciting day with strong energy product sales, doubling the previous quarter's results.

Tesla's pricing power is evident, especially in the energy products sector, indicating a profitable and margin-rich business.

An additional $935 million is expected to Tesla's bottom line if the energy storage business maintains the same gross profit margin as Q1.

Tesla's financing strategy in Q2 is aimed at solidifying vehicle deliveries and addressing cash flow concerns.

A potential amortization of the discounted financing cost over time could boost Tesla's Q2 performance.

Tesla's vehicle production was reduced, possibly shifting focus to battery deployment to improve financial results.

Tesla's Q2 performance is optimistic, despite the reduction in vehicle production and delivery.

The sustainability of Tesla's Q2 strategies is questioned, with some tactics possibly being one-time efforts.

Tesla's interest rate offers are no longer available, suggesting a strategic move to solidify financials before key events.

Tesla's stock is volatile and has the potential to explode, as it has recently shown a significant increase.

Macro risks are present, affecting not only Tesla but also the broader market, with indicators suggesting potential market softness.

The yield curve steepening and the Goldman Sachs bull/bear market indicator suggest a potential market peak.

Election periods often see market sell-downs, which could present buying opportunities.

Tesla's energy business is gaining attention for its profitability and potential impact on the company's valuation.

Morgan Stanley's positive note on Tesla highlights the company's Q2 delivery beat and energy storage deployment.

Investors are advised to consider buying Tesla shares incrementally, anticipating future dips for better entry points.

Transcripts

holy smokes welcome to an amazing day

for Tesla congratulations to all Tesla

investors this is so exciting where is

this button when you need it nice PP yes

exactly ah the pricing power at Tesla's

coming through especially something that

not a lot of folks are paying attention

to this line right here 9.4 gaws on

Energy Products folks that's more than

double it's 2.3x what we saw in the last

q1 gig uh uh gws deployed of energy uh I

mentioned over here that if we have the

same gross profit margin as we did in q1

we should be seeing an additional $935

million to Tesla's bottom line because

the energy storage business is

profitable it's got good margins this is

going to help with some of those

negative cash flow concerns just like

you know the financing that Tesla

introduced in Q2 to really try to

solidify a vehicle deliveries bottom I

personally think they'll probably

amortize the cost of that discounted

financing over time it that might sound

really complicated so I'm going to

translate that to English Majin could be

really good in Q2 okay so I'm I'm

actually pretty optimistic here uh uh

now I these were the deliveries were

down uh

4.76% uh deliveries

14.3% uh on uh Vehicles produced so we

reduced some vehicle production probably

shifted some of that to battery

deployment uh and uh really made some

dollar hollas now uh this is great Q2

fantastic really trying to solidify a

bottom here in the same quarter that

Elon was fighting for his Compensation

Plan this makes a lot of sense how

sustainable this is going to be remains

to be seen this is not me being bearish

this is just me being reasonable to

argue that there is a potential that

some of the tricks that were deployed in

Q2 to pump these delivery figures right

here specifically some of those interest

rate offers are now no longer available

at all which makes me think that there

was a little bit of um a desire to

really solidify a bottom right before

the robo taxi event and at the same time

of elon's comp compensation plan vote uh

again this is not me trying to be jaded

it's just look 6.29 is the lowest rate I

could get on a Model y right now after

they did 0.99 on the Y they went to 1.9

and even that's gone now which is kind

of wild I thought they would have kept

doing this if it was so successful but

I'm starting to think ah but the idea

wasn't to always have this the idea see

even 6.29 on all the threes the idea was

to just do this at the time it mattered

most now this is not me trying to be a

Tesla bear it's just trying to set

expectations that yes this is a great

way to try to set a bottom for Tesla yes

I've been calling for Tesla to hit 221

and break a above it frankly since like

April and May and then the beginning of

June we're like oh my gosh volatility is

so low volatility is going to explode

and when it does the stock is going to

explode and that's literally exactly

what's happening right now at the time

of this recording the stock is up over

9% had some call options this morning

print some tendies which is delicious as

always I send those alerts to everyone

in my stocks and sight group when I see

a trade or I see a swing trade or I see

something that could be an opportunity

which is great but what we have to also

consider is there is a risk to macro and

so this is nothing to do with Tesla

because Tesla specifically I think the

Bottom's in on Tesla I don't actually

believe we're going to go below 200 and

if we do go below 200 again I think

it'll be a gift however there are some

warning signs for example the Goldman

Sachs bull SL bear Market indicator this

is a chart that goes all the way back to

1955 and this chart because it goes all

the way back to

1955 it's not so horribly precise but it

does show us up here at a peak level but

then again it also if you look very very

closely shows us off of that peak level

a little bit already but what's

fascinating is if you consider what's

already off peak level a little bit we

think of Nvidia being off peak level a

little bit we think of the q's yes kind

of green right now after JP Pal's done

yapping his trap which is to be expected

but it makes you wonder are we hitting a

ceiling here at the same time we're

getting a steepening of the yield curve

we look at those two t the spread

between those is suggesting we could be

in for a period of somewhat softness or

potentially some fear going into the

pretty classic Catalyst of an election

usually in the months before an election

you do end up having a sell down which

could be an opportunity to buy the dip

if you feel like you're missing out and

your Foo a little bit there might be

other opportunities to buy I don't know

that the market is going to continue to

go straight up from here but hey

anything is possible so let's consider

the following uh first we do have the

2os 10 continuing yesterday we caught up

on how the 210s falling or or rather the

210 spreads steepening so so the yield

Rising is often indicative of either a

flat Market if we get the steepening for

a week to two weeks we're at day seven

or a market that falls if we get more

than that right now the 210 spread which

you can calculate on screen here all you

have to do on the right side of the

screen is grab that 2-year treasury

yield which you can grab from CNBC so we

write down

4.72 7 we're going to minus that uh from

this 10year

4446 uh technically I should be minusing

the 10 from the two but whatever I'm

going to flip that to negative what're

about 28 basis points inverted right now

28 basis points have inverted is U you

know more more uninverted than where we

were yesterday again a sign that okay

markets could be giving us a reason for

some pause mostly because we haven't

seen some pause that is not a bearish

thing it's just saying if you feel like

you're missing out on Tesla there could

end up being another opportunity to get

in I personally think the opportunity to

get in is much in line with what I said

yesterday I think between today and the

earnings date you could potentially try

to price in some bad news although it's

also possible you just get a bunch of

Industry upgrades although usually those

don't come out until you actually get

the earnings you could get some industry

upgrades stock could go up more

absolutely but I wouldn't be surprised

to see some red days between now and

earnings day and then almost certainly

am I expecting some red when it comes to

the robo taxi event so don't get me

wrong heavily exposed to Tesla it's the

larg just position in a fund that I

manag it's not an advertisement for that

fund I'm very very happy because now my

performance uh gets boosted again we're

not comparing returns we're trying to be

relative here we're just simply saying

I'm bullish I just do see that it's

possible this Q2 Spike could be a little

bit of a one-time

misnomer uh and it's possible that after

the 88 event and once we start getting

Q3 delivery numbers which would be about

three months from now so July is month

7th so about the beginning of October it

could start see which would be right

before the election October could be a

really big Tesla by the dip opportunity

now is that because it ran up to 300 and

then down to 270 or do we go back to 200

I have no idea I'm just saying I do

believe there's not just a clean path

forward here though this is very very

exciting for Tesla and I'm very excited

to see what the margins are going to end

up looking like uh for that energy

business that energy business is

something a lot of people don't really

pay attention to and I think it's really

worthless uh worth worth paying

attention to now Morgan Stanley did

throw out a note uh which we could take

a peek at uh here I see on X first

positive surprise of the Year Tesla

started its independence Day celebration

early with a positive Q2 delivery beat

33k lower inventory and a large store G

beat to remind investors it's not just

an auto company while this is one of the

first and only positive Auto surprises

of the year we still believe matching

last year's delivery number would be

difficult to achieve we did also see an

inventory reduction which should

increase our networking capital and we

saw the show stealer of the energy

storage deployment now there's the

question is Tesla getting its mojo back

elon's comp plan was approved fast

forward clients are beginning to ask us

about positive results into Q2 and

Beyond we're getting asked about Tesla

energy the humanoid robot Tam so a lot

of really bullish things ahead for Tesla

as well so possibly the way to look at

Tesla is if you feel a little bit of Foo

you buy a little knowing there are going

to be dips again in the future and I'm

just trying to provide a balanced

perspective here but congratulations to

anybody exposed to Tesla this is great

news and uh folks good job out there

good luck and we'll see you in the next

one we'll keep paying attention to

volatility we'll also keep paying

attention to that inverted yield curve

thanks so much goodbye can notot

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

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are either paid affiliations or products

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personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house act nor am I presently acting as a

marketer maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house Haack to

always read the PPM at house.com