لماذا تتردد السعودية فى الانضمام لبريكس؟ وكيف تربك قوة الاقتصاد الأمريكي حسابات الجميع؟

Summary

The video discusses economic news and developments in Egypt and globally. It covers Egypt's ongoing foreign currency shortage, companies like Al Shaya Group reducing operations due to hard currency access issues, and Moody's downgrading Egypt's credit outlook. Globally, it analyzes China's concerning demographic challenges, the resilience of the US economy versus expectations of slowing, and positive developments in Ghana and Turkey overcoming prior economic troubles.

Takeaways

• 😊 The script covers economic news and analysis related to Saudi Arabia, China, Ghana, Turkey, Egypt and the US.
• 😮 Saudi Arabia is still undecided about joining the BRICS economic bloc due to political and economic considerations.
• 😲 China faces serious demographic challenges with declining birth rates and an aging population.
• 🤔 Ghana has successfully restructured billions in debt with the Paris Club and bilateral creditors.
• 👍Turkey's credit outlook was raised by Moody's, signaling potential upgrades.
• 😟 Egypt faces currency shortage issues and lower remittances and tourism.
• 😐 Moody's warned Egypt may need debt restructuring despite potential IMF loan increases.
• 😀 The US economy remains resilient with strong jobs, consumption and wage growth.
• 🤨 The Fed may be less inclined to cut rates soon given persistent inflation.
• 💡 Turkey has raised interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, boosting its economic prospects.

Q & A

What is the main currency crisis facing Egypt currently?

The main currency crisis facing Egypt is a shortage of foreign currency, especially US dollars. This is making it difficult for companies to import goods and repatriate profits abroad.

How have banks in Egypt responded to the foreign currency shortage?

Banks in Egypt have responded by lowering the maximum withdrawal and purchase limits when using credit cards abroad. This reflects the lack of foreign currency availability.

Why did the Kuwaiti Al Shaya Group decide to downsize its Egypt operations?

The Al Shaya Group downsized its Egypt operations, closing 60 stores and laying off 375 employees, due to the difficulty of obtaining foreign currency needed to import goods and transfer funds abroad.

What warning did the ratings agency Moody's recently issue about Egypt's credit rating?

Moody's warned that Egypt's Caa1 credit rating could be further downgraded given the increased pressure on foreign currency reserves. They said external financial support may not be enough to avoid debt restructuring.

How has the foreign currency shortage impacted Egypt's sources of foreign income?

Key foreign income sources like remittances, tourism, and Suez Canal revenues have declined due to the dual exchange rate system, geopolitical tensions, and fewer ships traversing the canal.

What progress has Ghana made in renegotiating its debt?

Ghana successfully renegotiated $5.4 billion of its bilateral debt under the Common Framework. It is now poised to start negotiations with private creditors to restructure another $13 billion of Eurobonds and bank loans.

Why did Moody's improve Turkey's credit rating outlook?

Moody's upgraded Turkey's rating outlook from stable to positive based on its central bank's recent moves to combat inflation, such as aggressively raising interest rates.

What is the main difference between Egypt and Turkey's current credit ratings?

Both Egypt and Turkey's credit ratings are below investment grade, but Turkey is rated higher by Moody's - it is 6 notches below investment grade compared to Egypt's 7 notches below.

What are the two steps generally taken by ratings agencies when evaluating a country's credit?

Ratings agencies typically issue a report evaluating a country's current credit rating, then release an outlook report forecasting the likelihood of an upgrade or downgrade at the next rating review.

What is the outlook for further interest rate hikes by Turkey's central bank?

The market expects Turkey's central bank to raise rates by another 250 basis points at its next meeting, which would bring the policy rate to around 45% as Turkey battles high inflation.