Can NVIDIA Bottom Here? - NVDA Stock, SPY, QQQ Update

TheTeslaGuy
3 Sept 202508:45

Summary

TLDRIn this Nvidia daily update, the host reviews the stock's recent performance, noting it closed flat at around $170.6, underperforming the broader market. Short-term momentum has slowed, with stabilization expected near 169–171, while reclaiming 174–175 is key for bullish setups. Technical indicators like the 9 EMA and MACD suggest a potential consolidation before the next move. Broader market trends, including QQQ and SPY divergences, signal caution. Options flow shows modest bullish activity, hinting at possible short-term bounces. Overall, the host emphasizes monitoring price action day by day to determine whether Nvidia and the market will resume upward momentum or continue consolidating.

Takeaways

  • 📉 Nvidia closed nearly flat at $170.6, underperforming the broader market like QQQ which is up 8%.
  • ⚡ Nvidia has lost short-term momentum but could regain it if key levels are recaptured.
  • 📊 Key support level: $169 – daily closes below this may indicate further downside risk.
  • 📈 Key resistance/bullish target: $174-$175 – holding above this range is necessary for bullish momentum.
  • 🟢 Longer-term potential entry point: ~$150, retesting previous all-time highs with Fibonacci alignment.
  • 📉 MACD is cooling off after being elevated, suggesting possible further consolidation before the next move.
  • 📅 Weekly chart shows Nvidia holding around 9 EMA, caution advised until strength is confirmed above $174-$175.
  • 📌 Broader market influence: Nvidia closely follows QQQ; bearish signals in QQQ could impact Nvidia’s trend.
  • 🔮 QQQ shows a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern with critical levels at 575 (bullish) and 560 (bearish risk).
  • 💹 Options flow indicates moderately bullish activity, including a notable $175 call for Friday expiration, supporting potential stabilization.
  • 🛑 Short-term outlook: Nvidia may remain range-bound near $170-$171 with minor bounces before direction is clarified.
  • 🌟 Overall, a decisive move above $174-$175 signals bullish continuation, while dropping below $169 increases downside risk.

Q & A

  • What was Nvidia's closing price in the latest update?

    -Nvidia closed roughly flat at $170.6, down approximately 0.1% for the day.

  • How has Nvidia's recent performance compared to the broader market?

    -Nvidia has underperformed compared to QQQ, which was up around 8%, indicating a loss of momentum relative to the broader market.

  • What short-term bounce level does the analyst suggest for Nvidia?

    -The analyst expects a potential short-term bounce to around $174, assuming stabilization continues.

  • Which key levels indicate a bullish outlook for Nvidia?

    -A bullish outlook would be considered if Nvidia reclaims and holds above $174–$175, with daily closes above these levels signaling potential upward momentum.

  • Which levels indicate potential bearish risk for Nvidia?

    -A daily close below $169, which is also below the 50 EMA, would be a key bearish signal indicating potential further downside.

  • What is the analyst's long-term target area for Nvidia retracement?

    -The analyst finds Nvidia more exciting for long-term positions if it retraces to previous all-time highs around $150, which aligns with key Fibonacci levels.

  • What is the current technical state of Nvidia's momentum indicators?

    -Momentum indicators such as MACD are cooling off, and the SMI is curling down, showing that bullish momentum has slowed and stabilization is occurring.

  • How does the broader market context, specifically QQQ and SPY, affect Nvidia?

    -QQQ is showing a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern, with SPY making a higher high while QQQ made a lower high, indicating a bearish divergence. This suggests Nvidia could experience similar retracement patterns as the broader market.

  • What critical levels in QQQ should traders watch according to the analyst?

    -Critical levels for QQQ are 575 for bullish confirmation and 560 for bearish risk. Closing above 575 signals faster-than-expected bullish momentum, while closing below 560 could indicate further downside.

  • What recent Nvidia options activity was observed and what does it imply?

    -A 200k call option at a $175 strike for Friday expiration was noted, suggesting decently bullish sentiment and potential stabilization or minor bounce toward $174.

  • Why does the analyst suggest patience before entering aggressive long positions?

    -Because Nvidia has had an aggressive rally and momentum is cooling, the analyst prefers waiting for key retracement levels or stronger confirmation above resistance before entering higher-risk long trades.

  • How does the analyst summarize Nvidia's current market state?

    -Nvidia is currently neutral to slightly bearish, with potential for stabilization or a short-term bounce, but confirmation of a bullish reversal requires reclaiming $174–$175. Key support is $169, and retracement to $150 could provide more favorable long-term trading opportunities.

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NvidiaStock AnalysisMarket UpdateTechnical AnalysisBullishBearishOptions FlowQQQTrading StrategyInvesting TipsDaily UpdatePrice Targets
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