How Bet Size Tells Expose Opponents' Range (Pro Hack)
Summary
TLDRIn this poker discussion, Bart and Bob analyze a hand played at Bay 101 in San Jose, California. The hand involves a limp-calling strategy, a significant pot, and a tense decision-making process on betting sizes and player ranges. The conversation dives into the psychology of poker, considering the villain's possible holdings and the hero's stack depth. The hand culminates in a river bet, a jam, and a reveal of pocket fours, sparking a debate on optimal play and the importance of reading opponents in high-stakes poker games.
Takeaways
- 😀 The conversation is about a poker game taking place at Bay 101 in San Jose, California.
- 🎲 The game features a bad beat jackpot, which has increased the drop to $7, a point of contention for some players.
- 👤 A player named Joe, who is easily identifiable due to playing in a wheelchair, is mentioned as possibly being at the game.
- 💺 The game being played is a 2/3/5 No-Limit Hold'em game with a buy-in cap ranging from $2 to $800.
- 🃏 The hand discussed involves a player in the small blind with Ace of Spades and Ace of Clubs, making a pre-flop raise to $25.
- 🤔 The flop reveals a board with potential flush and straight draws, leading to a size-up bet by the small blind player.
- 🚀 A raise to $115 by the hijack player suggests a strong hand or a draw, prompting speculation about their range.
- 🛑 The turn brings a brick (five of spades), leading to a check from the small blind and a subsequent bet of $175 by the hijack player.
- 🔢 The river is the five of hearts, and the small blind player decides to jam the pot, suspecting the hijack player might have a weaker hand.
- 🏆 The hijack player calls with pocket fours, resulting in a full house and a loss for the small blind player.
- 🤷♂️ The discussion includes strategic considerations about betting patterns, hand ranges, and the importance of stack depth in decision-making.
Q & A
What is the location of the poker game being discussed?
-The poker game is taking place at Bay 101 in Sunny San Jose, California.
What is the buy-in cap for the game being played?
-The buy-in cap ranges from 2 to 800, but for the hand being discussed, the effective stack is 700.
Why was the drop increased to $7 in the game?
-The drop was increased to $7 due to the institution of a bad beat jackpot.
Who is the player known as 'Joe' and how is he identified?
-Joe is a poker player who is easily identifiable as he plays in a wheelchair.
What hand does the hero make a pre-flop raise with from the small blind?
-The hero makes a pre-flop raise with Ace of Spades and a Queen of Clubs from the small blind.
What is the flop in the discussed hand of poker?
-The flop consists of the Queen of Diamonds, 10 of Diamonds, and four of Clubs.
What is the significance of the turn card being a five of Spades?
-The five of Spades is a blank, meaning it does not improve the hand of the villain and allows the hero to continue with their betting strategy.
What is the final bet size by the villain on the turn?
-The villain bets 175 on the turn, which is a significant bet and not the same as the previous betting round.
What is the river card and how does it affect the hand?
-The river is a five of Hearts, which pairs the board and changes the dynamics of the hand, making it more difficult for the villain to have a good hand.
Why does the hero decide to jam all-in on the river?
-The hero decides to jam all-in on the river because they believe the villain might check back value hands like Queen 10, and the hero wants to extract value from worse hands.
What hand does the villain have that leads them to snap call the all-in bet?
-The villain has pocket fours, which makes a full house and leads them to snap call the all-in bet.
Outlines
🎲 Poker Strategy Discussion
This paragraph discusses a poker game scenario at Bay 101 in San Jose, California. The conversation revolves around the game's structure, including blinds and the bad beat jackpot. It introduces a player named Joe who plays in a wheelchair and is easily recognizable. The buying cap is mentioned, ranging from 2 to 800, and the current hand's stack is at 700 due to a previous loss. The hand's action begins with a limp from the hijack position and a subsequent raise by the hero in the small blind. The flop contains a Queen and two diamonds, prompting a continuation bet by the hero and a raise by the villain, indicating a possible draw or a pair of Queens. The discussion touches on the villain's potential hand range and the hero's decision-making process.
🃏 Deep Stack Poker Decision Making
The second paragraph continues the poker narrative, focusing on the hero's decision to call a raise on the flop with a deep stack. The conversation speculates on the villain's hand range, considering the possibility of top pair or a draw. The turn brings a brick, prompting a check from the hero and a substantial bet from the villain. The discussion explores the implications of the bet size and the potential hands the villain might hold. The hero decides to call, considering the stack sizes and the likelihood of the villain having a hand like Queen-10. The river card is a five, which changes the dynamics of the hand, and the hero decides to jam, or go all-in, based on the belief that the villain might check back with a weaker hand. The villain calls and reveals a full house, leading to a debate about the hero's decision to jam and the villain's hand range.
🤔 Post-Hand Analysis and Betting Strategy
In the final paragraph, the discussion shifts to a post-hand analysis of the betting strategy and the thought process behind the hero's actions. The conversation delves into the potential outcomes on different river cards and the hero's rationale for jamming the pot. It also considers the villain's possible hand ranges and the likelihood of them holding a hand like Queen-Jack or Queen-Nine. The analysis concludes with a reflection on the turn bet size and its implications for the villain's hand strength, as well as the hero's satisfaction with the river card and the decision to go all-in.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bay 101
💡Bad Beat Jackpot
💡Small Blind
💡Drop
💡235 Game
💡Buying In
💡Effective Stack
💡Hijack Position
💡Limp Call
💡Flop
💡Check-Raise
💡Value Bet
💡Bluff
💡River
💡Jam
💡Full House
Highlights
Introduction of the setting at Bay 101 in San Jose, California with a $2 button and a bad beat jackpot resulting in a $7 drop.
Mention of Matrix also having a $7 drop due to the bad beat jackpot.
Description of the game being played, which is a $2-$3 with a buy-in cap ranging from $2 to $800.
Discussion about a player named Joe who plays in a wheelchair and might be easily recognized.
Hero's hand situation described, having lost a pot with pocket Queens and now playing with a $700 stack.
Pre-flop action with the hijack limping and the hero in the small blind making it 25, only the limper calls.
Flop description: Queen of Diamonds, 10 of Diamonds, and four of clubs, with a discussion on the hero's hand strength and possible opponent's holdings.
Hero bets $40 on the flop, and the villain raises to $115, indicating a possible hand range including draws and top pairs.
Hero calls the raise with a deep stack, considering the villain's potential hand range and the dynamics of the hand.
Turn card is a five of Spades, a blank, leading to a discussion on check-raising strategies and hand ranges.
Villain bets $175 on the turn, prompting a discussion on the implications of the bet size and potential hands.
Hero calls the $175 turn bet, considering stack sizes and future play on the river.
River is a five of Hearts, changing the hand dynamics and leading to a discussion on the best play against Queen 10.
Hero jams the river, betting all-in, based on the perceived range of the villain and the board texture.
Villain snaps off, revealing pocket fours for a full house, leading to a discussion on the hero's play and the villain's range.
Analysis of the villain's possible holdings and the hero's decision-making process throughout the hand.
Discussion on the implications of the villain's betting patterns and the hero's stack size on the river.
Reflection on the hand and the thought process behind the hero's final jam on the river.
Transcripts
hello Bob what's going on hey Bart can
you hear me okay I can where you playing
out of Bob so this is at Bay 101 in
Sunny San Jose California 101 heavily
dropped heavily dropped environment with
a small blind on the button right that's
right yeah it's a $2 on the button and
uh yeah the drop is now $7 that they
instituted a a bad beat jackpot so it's
even a bigger drop now I heard that
actually I heard that from a buddy of
mine who uh was not pleased when they
instituted that do they have the bed
beat over at Matrix too uh they do now
yes so it's $7 over there as well so
what what size game are you playing this
is 235 235 you might know my buddy uh I
think I don't know if he plays in the
bay his name is Joe and he plays in a
wheelchair so he's easy to spot I don't
know if you ever see a guy playing in a
wheelchair who's a r there but yeah I
don't know um I don't know him off hand
but uh yeah I think there is a guy who's
in a wheelchair um yeah and he he needs
some help putting chips in the pot I
don't know the same great guy Joe he's
probably early 50s what's the uh what's
the cap in the game what's the buying
cap ranges from 2 to 800 um I always buy
in for the for the max but for this hand
we're at 700 because I I lost a pot with
pocket tween Queens earlier okay so 700
effective and we're e-hand
okay so pre flop holds over to the
hijack and he limps okay and then it
folds over to the hero in the small
blind and with a of of clubs Ace of
Spades hero makes it 25 to 25 okay and
only the limper calls limper calls so a
late position
limp and you make it 25 limper calls and
your head's up yeah the pots 50 after
the drop okay the Flop is Queen of
Diamonds 10 of diamonds four of
clubs and again you guys started 700
effective so fairly deep okay
all right so I'm first to act and this
board has a lot of connection with I
think a lot of his limp call range
there's also two diamonds on board so
unless he has some small pocket pair I
think I think he's going to connect with
this and so I size up and uh make it 40
I like it we talk about that
in single race pots a two flush draw
Broadway board like to size up
especially when heads up so herob bets
40 okay and after not too much thought
the villain makes it
115 so hijack
raises
to
115 interesting so what do you think the
hijacks range is here when he bumps it
up here to
115 so I think there's a lot of draws
out there
but I think he might also have a hand
like Queen Jack offit or queen9 suited
and might be just trying to figure out
whether his hand is good or not you mean
making like a little bump up raise here
with top pair yeah yeah I mean it could
be that you don't have the ace of
diamonds I mean his late position limper
maybe some combo draws like Jack D of
diamonds King jack of diamonds then for
value of course we wouldn't think queens
or tens but maybe Queen 10 Queen 10 off
I'm thinking yeah Queen 10 is big part
of his value range here I mean obviously
I'm not folding now I think I call I
mean you're definitely deep enough here
to call and see what develops and then I
mean planning ahead kind of like a chess
match here if you do think that this is
might consist some some top pair types
of raises although it might be a little
bit large for that if it gets checked
through on a blank turn like if it's
like an off like a black three and you
check and check check I mean value bet
all day right on the on clean runouts on
the river oh for sure yeah I would think
that um if he is drawing that um he'd be
happy to take his free card on the turn
so you call I do call so it looks like
the pot's now
280 that's what I have yeah okay turn is
a five of Spades so that's a pretty big
brick this is exactly what we're talking
about here right yeah so I check and
villain goes he didn't take too long and
puts out
175 well that's definitely not a small
bet here not even the same bet talk
about CLP same bet when somebody there a
lot of when somebody check raises you
actually as opposed to raise in position
but you could make the same case here
where if someone raises on a subsequent
Street and you've got the betting lead
like in an exact spot like that if they
follow up with the same bet or less it
usually is not strength on a blank and
we have a blank here but 175 is
certainly not a same bet got to do a
little math here so if you make the call
the pot's going to be
630 and you guys have put in over 300 of
your stack so it's like you would have
what 400 left if you call just under 400
I mean you definitely have enough stack
depth to call I guess my question comes
in is that do you have a plan for rivers
are you ever check folding on complete
brick runouts and what I would say by
complete brick runouts would be like
offsuit deuce offit 3 probably down to
like maybe offit seven types of Holdings
here yeah I think I would just have to
close my eyes and and flip it in there
if it's one of those cards if he's got
all the queen tens I'm not sure so you
call I do yeah all right so here are
calls and again now we are at
6:30
okay the river is the five of Hearts oh
I remember this now remember this now so
five of Hearts here on the
river and so what is that change
obviously you beat Queen 10 right yeah
right you beat Queen 10
one thing of note is that 5x of diamonds
If You Ever Raised with a hand like that
like if you had five four that would be
two pairs so 5x of diamonds comes in
that beat you now but I think if I
remember correctly you actually do
something a little bit different here
and it caused me a little bit of thought
because obviously usually like the
standard Play here's the thing if the
villain is always going to Value bet
Queen 10 here anyways and sometimes it's
have Bluffs in the play is to check call
sometimes too I check call right because
he could be value owning himself with
Queen 10 however it kind of a low stakes
hack if a guy is not a thin value better
here and won't bet Queen 10 because the
board pairs now even though he beats any
other Queen I mean in all honestly like
I'm betting Queen 10 at the end here I'm
not just always scared that you've got
Aces or or Kings but a lot of guys are
just going to check it back then you
might want to bet yourself especially if
you don't think there's going to be like
a fre a lot of frequency because you've
called the whole way down of him
bluffing I I'll repeat that again so if
he's not going to Bluff that much and
check back Queen 10 you might want to
bet up front yourself if he is betting
Queen 10 and he is betting some Bluffs
and obviously the play is to check yeah
I was pretty happy with this run out
because I put Queen tan as a as a big
part of his value range here and I was
worried that like what you said is that
if if I just check here that he's going
to check back a lot of times I think
even Queen Queen 10 that I wouldn't I
would lose some value because he would
certainly I think call off a bet if he
had Queen 10 or maybe even something
like king queen off suit you mean oh
because you think him he's still like
driving forward like sometimes on the
turn so let me just throw a quick at you
what if the river was an offsuit deuce
or an offsuit three I think I would
probably check well I think that that
you should for sure because you're
losing to Queen 10 so that's the
difference here and again he might have
slivers or 5x of diamond so what did you
do
here so because I was worried about him
checking back value here I decided to
jam Jam ah so hero
jams and again I mean for this first of
all I I kind of agree with Bob's
thinking he's always going to call with
Queen T now the question is is that does
he have Queen T off that limp calls if
he does there's nine combos of it right
if it's only Queen 10 suited there's
only three there are three combos
obviously of you know pocket fours right
that you lose to so that's kind of
really the cross and then if you do
think he might have some Queen X here
but again you know you go back to the
fact that it was a late position limp so
he probably doesn't have Ace Queen I
don't know if he's doing this with king
queen you know what I'm saying yeah it
depends on the player if you think he
does have some Queen X I actually and
again this is 235 the way that the hero
has played this hand for this line if a
guy limp calls and plays king queen in
this fashion let's say if he has king
queen and gets her I don't think he's
folding so there is that so it is fairly
close depending on how much Queen 10 I
think that the guy has and like I said
just go back three or four minutes of
what I talked about why I would bet
versus why I would check thinking about
his range so you jam here yeah and what
happened he snaps oh snaps huh yeah and
has pocket fors for the Full
House well we don't necessarily DET I
mean that that doesn't even tell us
anything necessarily about this hand
right because we always know that he's
calling with pocket force and we know he
has three combos of it right right so I
don't think that your play is terrible
if you think that what I said about
Queen 10 and if you think that he might
have some Queen X because again if Queen
X is played in this manner it is is
going to get called but I'm not I I I
don't necessarily get on board with you
that he does have Queen X here like in
the form of Queen Jack or queen n has
played okay I just don't know if it
raises and then follows up with 175 here
on the turn I mean maybe he thinks that
sometimes you've got a that would be
really way more consistent with a
smaller bet on turn like I could get on
board with this play a lot more if the
turn bet was like he rised a 115 on the
Flop and then the turn bet was 115 or
less like me he went to
115 and now in the turn he bet 100 I
really get on with this play if that was
the case for his turn bet this one's
pretty close though because of the 175
on turn so that's that that's kind of I
think the Crux of this hand all right so
the smaller bet on the turn would
indicate that maybe it was some sort of
blocker with a marginal made hand I
think it would lean more towards Queen X
yes okay yeah so thank you very much for
the call appreciate it Bob
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