ส่องอนาคต “อิหร่าน” หากผู้นำสูงสุดสิ้นชีพ | World Stories

Summary

The video script discusses the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, focusing on Israel's military operations aimed at weakening Iran's nuclear and defense capabilities. It explores the potential future of Iran without its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delving into political unrest, the oppression of Iranian citizens, and the impact of external pressures like Israeli and U.S. actions. Amid these complex dynamics, the script raises questions about regime change in Iran, the challenges of leadership succession, and the potential for chaos or transformation in the country, all while considering Israel's long-standing strategic goals.

Takeaways

• 😀 Israel has launched a significant military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the most devastating airstrike since the Iraq war 20 years ago.
• 😀 The operation, known as 'Operation Rising Lion', took Israel a year to prepare, focusing on weakening Iranian-backed militant groups and their support networks in the region.
• 😀 Israel's objective is to cripple Iran's nuclear capabilities, especially its efforts in developing nuclear weapons, which Iran has denied.
• 😀 Israel has also been targeting key figures, including senior military commanders and nuclear scientists, with at least 10 people killed in the operation.
• 😀 There's speculation about Israel attempting to assassinate Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but Israel denies such intentions.
• 😀 Netanyahu’s long-term goal is to destabilize the Iranian regime and possibly prompt regime change, citing oppression and human rights violations, especially the treatment of women in Iran.
• 😀 Public protests in Iran, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Masa Amini, highlight widespread dissatisfaction with the regime's treatment of women and the enforcement of morality laws.
• 😀 A 2022 poll revealed that nearly 90% of Iranians view democracy positively, with 67% rejecting the current religious system and 76% against military rule.
• 😀 If Israel were to target Iran’s supreme leader directly, Iran would likely retaliate violently, possibly escalating the conflict into a dangerous cycle of attacks.
• 😀 Iran faces an uncertain future, with no clear successor to the supreme leader and internal divisions within the leadership, including the loss of influential figures like Qasem Soleimani.
• 😀 The situation in Iran is marked by high public dissatisfaction, widespread protests, and a challenging economic situation, making the future of the regime unpredictable.

Q & A

What is the main objective of Israel's 'Ring Lion' operation against Iran?

The primary objective of Israel's 'Ring Lion' operation is to weaken Iran's nuclear capabilities and disrupt the infrastructure supporting Iranian-backed militant groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

How long did Israel prepare for the 'Ring Lion' operation?

Israel took a year to prepare the 'Ring Lion' operation in order to carefully plan and execute the air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and support systems.

What event is described as the most devastating air attack Israel has launched since the Iraq War?

The 'Ring Lion' operation is described as the most devastating air attack Israel has launched since the Iraq War 20 years ago.

How did Israel's operation affect Iranian-backed militant groups?

Israel's operation weakened Iranian-backed militant groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels, by targeting their support systems and reducing their capacity to operate effectively.

What is Netanyahu's stance regarding Iran's nuclear development?

Prime Minister Netanyahu views Iran's nuclear development as a significant threat to Israel's security and has made it clear that Israel will take necessary actions to dismantle Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

What was the significance of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani?

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani, a key Iranian military commander, was a major event as he was one of the most influential figures in Iran after Khamenei. His death highlighted the vulnerability of Iran's leadership structure and raised concerns about the future of its regime.

What has been the Iranian government's response to the speculation about Khamenei's health?

When there were reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was seriously ill and in a coma, the Iranian government released images of him attending events to counter rumors and assure the public of his well-being.

What role do Iranian protests, particularly about women's rights, play in the geopolitical situation?

Iranian protests, sparked by issues like the treatment of women and the death of Masa Amini, highlight domestic dissatisfaction with the regime. These protests have drawn international attention and could influence future political dynamics in Iran, possibly contributing to pressure for regime change.

Why is there uncertainty about the future of Iran's leadership?

There is uncertainty about the future of Iran's leadership because there is no clear successor to Ayatollah Khamenei. The current political system lacks a unifying figure with the same influence, which could lead to instability when Khamenei’s reign ends.

What is the potential risk if Israel targets Iran's supreme leader?

If Israel were to target Iran's supreme leader, it could lead to a violent and catastrophic response from Iran, possibly resulting in a cycle of retaliatory attacks and escalating tensions in the Middle East.