How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion? | Charles C. Mann

Summary

The speaker explores humanity's trajectory, comparing our exponential growth in consumption to biological outbreaks, questioning if we will face a similar downfall. They introduce two perspectives, 'wizards' who trust in technology to overcome challenges, and 'prophets' who advocate for conservation within natural limits. The talk urges both sides to unite, suggesting a blend of their strategies could lead to a sustainable future, challenging the audience to consider our collective role in shaping our destiny.

Takeaways

• 📊 The human species has seen a significant increase in measures of physical well-being and consumption in the past two centuries, often referred to as an 'outbreak' in biological terms.
• 🌐 The concept of an 'outbreak' in biology is likened to the rapid growth of human population and consumption, which traditionally does not end well in nature.
• 🔬 The speaker suggests that humanity, like other species, may be destined to face the consequences of overconsumption and overpopulation, challenging the idea that we are fundamentally different from other species.
• 🌳 The debate between 'wizards' and 'prophets' represents two opposing views on how humanity can address its challenges: through technological advancement or conservation and ecological balance.
• 🤖 'Wizards' advocate for a future driven by technology, including genetically modified crops, nuclear energy, and high-efficiency megacities, to overcome resource limitations.
• 🌿 'Prophets' envision a future based on smaller, interconnected communities, sustainable agriculture, and renewable energy sources that are closer to nature and emphasize conservation.
• 🌍 The speaker highlights the challenges of feeding, watering, and powering a projected global population of 10 billion people by the year 2050, while mitigating climate change.
• 💡 Both 'wizards' and 'prophets' agree on the importance of technology in shaping the future but differ in the types of technology and the envisioned outcomes.
• 🚫 The speaker points out the public's reluctance to embrace certain technologies, such as genetically engineered crops and nuclear power, despite scientific evidence of their safety and potential benefits.
• 🌡 The ongoing increase in fossil fuel energy generation, despite awareness of climate change, indicates a disconnect between knowledge and action in addressing global challenges.
• 🤝 The speaker proposes that 'wizards' and 'prophets' should find common ground, accepting the fundamental premises of each other's views to work towards a sustainable future.

Q & A

What does the term 'outbreak' mean in the context of biology?

In biology, an 'outbreak' refers to a situation where a population or species exceeds the natural limits set by factors such as natural selection, leading to a rapid and often unsustainable increase in numbers.

How does the speaker describe the exponential growth of human consumption in the 19th and 20th centuries?

The speaker illustrates the exponential growth of human consumption by comparing it to a graph that shows a low, steady level for millennia, followed by a sudden and sharp increase during the 19th and 20th centuries.

What are the two broad categories of solutions proposed by researchers to address humanity's challenges, as mentioned in the script?

The two broad categories are 'wizards' and 'prophets'. Wizards believe in using science and technology to produce our way out of problems, while prophets advocate for conservation and living within the limits of ecological processes.

What does the term 'wizards' represent in the context of the script?

In the script, 'wizards' represent those who believe in the power of science and technology to overcome humanity's challenges, envisioning a future of hyperefficient megacities and advanced technological solutions.

What is the vision of 'prophets' for the future, as described in the script?

Prophets envision a future of smaller, interconnected communities that are closer to the earth, with a focus on agrarian lifestyles, conservation, and reduced corporate control, powered by local renewable energy sources.

How does the speaker compare the human species to protozoa in a petri dish?

The speaker compares humans to protozoa in a petri dish to highlight that, from a biological perspective, we are not fundamentally different and are subject to the same outcomes as an outbreak species that overshoots its environment.

What is the main concern of the speaker regarding humanity's future in the context of climate change and resource scarcity?

The main concern is whether humanity will be able to feed, water, and provide power to a growing population while avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, and whether we can escape the biological fate of an outbreak species.

What is the speaker's suggestion for wizards and prophets to move towards a common goal?

The speaker suggests that wizards and prophets should accept the fundamental premises of each other's viewpoints, recognizing that they share the same concern for humanity's future, and work together to find sustainable solutions.

How does the speaker address the issue of public perception towards genetically modified crops and nuclear power?

The speaker points out that despite scientific evidence supporting the safety of these technologies, public perception and acceptance remain a significant challenge, affecting the implementation of these potential solutions.

What is the speaker's view on the role of social movements in addressing global challenges?

The speaker believes that social movements are crucial for driving change and that a lack of significant public action, such as protests or demonstrations, indicates a disconnect between the urgency of the issues and the societal response.

What does the speaker imply about the potential for humanity to be 'special' in the biological sense?

The speaker implies that humanity's ability to accumulate and share knowledge, and to potentially use this knowledge to guide our future, sets us apart from other species in an outbreak situation, suggesting a unique capacity for self-awareness and change.

Outlines

00:00

🌱 Human Progress and the 'Outbreak' Phenomenon

The speaker begins by questioning how humanity is doing as a species, Homo sapiens. They discuss the typical approach to evaluate human progress, which involves selecting measures of physical well-being or consumption and observing their historical trends. The speaker notes that these measures show a sudden and exponential increase in the 19th and 20th centuries, a phenomenon biologists refer to as an 'outbreak.' The term 'outbreak' is used to describe a population or species that has exceeded the natural constraints of growth, leading to an unsustainable expansion. Examples of such outbreaks in nature are given, such as the crown-of-thorns starfish and zebra mussels, which have caused significant ecological damage. The speaker humorously points out that, from a biological perspective, humans are not fundamentally different from these organisms and may be destined to face a similar fate, hitting the 'edge of the petri dish,' a metaphor for ecological limits.

05:02

🔮 Divergent Visions for Humanity's Future: Wizards and Prophets

The speaker explores two opposing views on how humanity might navigate its future challenges, particularly by the year 2050 when the global population is expected to reach nearly 10 billion. The first group, referred to as 'wizards,' are optimistic about the role of science and technology in overcoming these challenges, advocating for increased production and innovation. They envision a future with hyperefficient megacities, advanced agriculture, and dematerialized economies. On the other hand, 'prophets' believe in the importance of ecological processes and natural limits, advocating for conservation and reduced consumption. They foresee a world of smaller, interconnected communities with a focus on local resources and sustainable practices. The speaker highlights the ongoing debate between these two groups and their differing visions of technology and societal structures, emphasizing that both sides consider technology as crucial for the future, albeit in different ways.

10:04

🌐 The Imperative for Unity: Bridging the Gap Between Wizards and Prophets

In the final paragraph, the speaker calls for unity between the wizards and prophets, suggesting that their common concern for humanity's future in a world of 10 billion people should be a basis for collaboration. They propose that each side accept the fundamental premises of the other, such as acknowledging the safety and benefits of nuclear power while recognizing its environmental risks, or accepting the safety of genetically modified crops while addressing the environmental impacts of industrial agriculture. The speaker suggests that by working together, wizards and prophets could explore innovative solutions that combine the best aspects of both approaches. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the potential for humanity to prove its uniqueness by not only surviving but also thriving sustainably, which would be a testament to our ability to use accumulated knowledge to shape a prosperous long-term future.

Keywords

💡Homo sapiens

Homo sapiens refers to the scientific name for the human species, emphasizing the biological aspect of our existence. In the context of the video, it is used to question the progress and future of our species as a whole. The script humorously points out that despite our advanced capabilities, we might not be fundamentally different from simpler life forms when it comes to our impact on the environment.

💡Outbreak

In biology, an outbreak is a sudden and rapid increase in the population of a species, exceeding natural limits. The video uses this term to describe the exponential growth of human consumption and population, drawing parallels with other species that have experienced similar unchecked growth, which often ends badly.

💡Natural selection

Natural selection is the process by which species adapt to their environment over time, with those best suited to their environment surviving and reproducing. The script mentions natural selection to highlight how it usually keeps populations in check, but humans, like the 'outbreak' species, have seemingly escaped these constraints.

💡Consumption

Consumption in the video refers to the use of resources such as energy, fresh water, and the world's photosynthesis. The script discusses how human consumption has dramatically increased, particularly in the last two centuries, indicating a potential unsustainable trajectory.

💡Wizards

In the context of the video, 'wizards' represent those who believe in the power of science and technology to solve humanity's problems. They advocate for innovation and increased production as a means to overcome challenges, envisioning a future with hyperefficient megacities and advanced technology.

💡Prophets

Conversely, 'prophets' in the video are those who see the world as having inherent ecological limits and advocate for conservation and reduced consumption. They propose a more agrarian lifestyle and smaller communities, focusing on sustainability and harmony with nature.

💡Genetically modified crops

Genetically modified crops are plants that have been altered at the DNA level to exhibit desired traits, such as higher productivity or resistance to pests. The script mentions these crops as a potential solution to feeding a growing population, but also acknowledges the public's reluctance to embrace this technology.

💡Desalination

Desalination is the process of removing salt and other minerals from seawater to produce fresh water. The video discusses large-scale desalination plants as a potential source of water, but also points out the environmental challenges, such as the disposal of toxic salt waste.

💡Megacities

Megacities refer to urban areas with a very high population density, often in the tens of millions. The script contrasts the wizards' vision of megacities as hubs of human aspiration and liberty with the prophets' concerns about corruption, inequality, and environmental impact.

💡Conservation

Conservation in the video is the practice of using natural resources wisely to ensure they are available for future generations. Prophets advocate for conservation as a key strategy for sustainability, criticizing the wasteful use of resources like fresh water due to leaky infrastructure.

💡Climate change

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the Earth's weather patterns, mostly attributed to human activities. The script highlights the challenge of mitigating the impacts of climate change and the need for alternative energy sources to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

💡Social engineering

Social engineering in the video refers to the deliberate manipulation of an environment to change people's behavior on a large scale. Prophets are criticized by wizards for advocating social engineering to achieve their vision of a more sustainable society.

Highlights

The exponential growth in human well-being and consumption since the 19th and 20th centuries is likened to an 'outbreak' in biological terms.

An 'outbreak' in biology refers to a population or species exceeding natural selection's limits, often leading to negative consequences.

The comparison of human growth to a petri dish experiment suggests a potential collision with the limits of our environment.

The speaker questions whether humanity is indeed different from other species that have experienced outbreaks.

The year 2050 is projected to have nearly 10 billion people with increasing demands for resources.

Two contrasting perspectives are presented: 'wizards' who trust in technology and 'prophets' who advocate for conservation.

Wizards envision a future with hyperefficient megacities and economies transitioning from atoms to bits.

Prophets prefer smaller, interconnected communities with a focus on agrarian lifestyles and reduced corporate control.

Both wizards and prophets agree on the importance of technology but differ on its application and vision for the future.

The debate between wizards and prophets has been ongoing for decades without a clear resolution.

The speaker suggests that both sides need to accept the fundamental premises of each other for a united approach.

A potential compromise could involve using nuclear power as a bridge technology while developing renewables.

Another compromise could be focusing on genetically modified tree and tuber crops for increased productivity and reduced environmental impact.

The speaker emphasizes the need for social movement and collaboration between wizards and prophets to address global challenges.

Despite the urgency of climate change, the increase in fossil fuel energy generation since the century's start is highlighted.

The lack of public engagement and protest on environmental issues is noted, contrasting with the need for action.

The speaker concludes by suggesting that if humanity can overcome its outbreak and safeguard the biome, it may indeed be special.

Transcripts

How are we doing?

No, no, no, by that, I meant,

how are we, homo sapiens "we" ...

(Laughter)

doing as a species?

(Laughter)

Now the typical way to answer that question is this.

You choose some measure of human physical well-being:

average longevity, average calories per day,

average income, overall population, that sort of thing,

and draw a graph of its value over time.

In almost every case, you get the same result.

The line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

Or choose a measure of consumption:

consumption of energy, consumption of fresh water,

consumption of the world's photosynthesis,

and draw a graph of its value over time.

In the same way, the line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.

An outbreak is when a population or species

exceeds the bounds of natural selection.

Natural selection ordinarily keeps populations and species

within roughly defined limits.

Pests, parasites, lack of resources prevent them from expanding too much.

But every now and then, a species escapes its bounds.

Crown-of-thorns starfish in the Indian Ocean,

zebra mussels in the Great Lakes, spruce budworm here in Canada.

Populations explode, a hundredfold, a thousandfold,

a millionfold.

So here's a fundamental lesson from biology:

outbreaks in nature don't end well.

(Laughter)

Put a couple of protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.

In their natural habitat, soil or water, their environment constrains them.

In the petri dish, they have an ocean of breakfast

and no natural enemies.

They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce,

until bang, they hit the edge of the petri dish,

at which point they either drown in their own waste,

starve from lack of resources, or both.

The outbreak ends, always, badly.

Now, from the viewpoint of biology,

you and I are not fundamentally different than the protozoa in the petri dish.

We're not special.

All the things that we, in our vanity, think make us different --

art, science, technology, and so forth, they don't matter.

We're an outbreak species,

we're going to hit the edge of the petri dish, simple as that.

Well, the obvious question: Is this actually true?

Are we in fact doomed to hit the edge of the petri dish?

I'd like to set aside this question for a moment

and ask you guys another one.

If we are going to escape biology, how are we going to do it?

In the year 2050,

there will be almost 10 billion people in the world,

and all of those people will want the things that you and I want:

nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes,

the odd chunk of Toblerone.

I mean, think of it: Toblerone for 10 billion people.

How are we going to do this?

How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody,

provide power to everybody, avoid the worst impacts of climate change?

I'm a science journalist,

and I've been asking these questions to researchers for years,

and in my experience, their answers fall into two broad categories,

which I call "wizards" and "prophets."

Wizards, techno-whizzes,

believe that science and technology, properly applied,

will let us produce our way out of our dilemmas.

"Be smart, make more," they say.

"That way, everyone can win."

Prophets believe close to the opposite.

They see the world as governed by fundamental ecological processes

with limits that we transgress to our peril.

"Use less, conserve," they say.

"Otherwise, everybody's going to lose."

Wizards and prophets have been butting their heads together for decades,

but they both believe that technology is key to a successful future.

The trouble is, they envision different types of technology

and different types of futures.

Wizards envision a world of glittering, hyperefficient megacities

surrounded by vast tracts of untouched nature,

economies that have transitioned from atoms to bits,

dematerialized capitalist societies

that no longer depend on exploiting nature.

Energy, to wizards, comes from compact nuclear plants;

food from low-footprint farms with ultraproductive,

genetically modified crops tended by robots;

water from high-throughput desalination plants,

which means we no longer exploit rivers and aquifers.

Wizards envision all 10 billion of us

packed into ultradense but walkable megacities,

an urbanized world of maximum human aspiration

and maximum human liberty.

Now, prophets object to every bit of this.

You can't dematerialize food and water, they point out.

They say, you can't eat bits,

and industrial agriculture has already given us massive soil erosion,

huge coastal dead zones and ruined soil microbiomes.

And you wizards, you want more of this?

And those giant desalination plants?

You know they generate equally giant piles of toxic salt

that are basically impossible to dispose of.

And those megacities you like?

Can you name me an actually existing megacity

that really exists in the world today, except for possibly Tokyo,

that isn't a cesspool of corruption and inequality?

Instead, prophets pray for a world of smaller, interconnected communities,

closer to the earth,

a more agrarian world of maximum human connection

and reduced corporate control.

More people live in the countryside in this vision,

with power provided by neighborhood-scale solar and wind installations

that disappear into the background.

Prophets don't generate water from giant desalination plants.

They capture it from rainfall,

and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.

And the food comes from small-scale networks of farms

that focus on trees and tubers

rather than less productive cereals like wheat and rice.

Above all, though, prophets envision people changing their habits.

They don't drive to work, they take their renewable-powered train.

They don't take 30-minute hot showers every morning.

They eat, you know, like Michael Pollan says,

real food, mostly plants, not too much.

Above all, prophets say submitting to nature's restraints

leads to a freer, more democratic, healthier way of life.

Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.

They see it as a recipe for narrowness, regression, and global poverty.

Prophet-style agriculture, they say, only extends the human footprint

and shunts more people into low-wage agricultural labor.

Those neighborhood-run solar facilities,

they sound great,

but they depend on a technology that doesn't exist yet.

They're a fantasy.

And recycling water? It's a brake on growth and development.

Above all, though, wizards object to the prophets' emphasis

on wide-scale social engineering,

which they see as deeply anti-democratic.

If the history of the last two centuries was one of unbridled growth,

the history of the coming century may well be the choice we make

as a species between these two paths.

These are the arguments that will be resolved, in one way or another,

by our children's generation,

the generation that will come into the world of 10 billion.

Now, but wait, by this point, biologists should be rolling their eyes

so loud you can barely hear me speak.

They should be saying, all of this, wizards, prophets,

it's a pipe dream.

It doesn't matter which illusory path you think you're taking.

Outbreaks in nature don't end well.

I mean, you think the protozoa see the edge of the petri dish approaching

and say, "Hey guys, time to change society"?

No. They just let her rip.

That's what life does, and we're part of life.

We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.

Well, if you're a follower of Darwin, you have to take this into consideration.

I mean, the basic counterargument boils down to: "We're special."

How lame is that?

(Laughter)

I mean, we can accumulate and share knowledge

and use it to guide our future.

Well, are we actually doing this?

Is there any evidence that we're actually using our accumulated, shared knowledge

to guarantee our long-term prosperity?

It's pretty easy to say no.

If you're a wizard,

and you believe that hyperproductive, genetically engineered crops

are key to feeding everyone in tomorrow's world,

you have to worry that 20 years

of scientists demonstrating that they are safe to consume

has failed to convince the public to embrace this technology.

If you're a prophet

and you believe that key to solving today's growing shortage of fresh water

is to stop wasting it,

you have to worry that cities around the world,

in rich places as well as poor,

routinely lose a quarter or more of their water

to leaky and contaminated pipes.

I mean, Cape Town, just a little while ago, almost ran out of water.

Cape Town loses a third of its water to leaky pipes.

This problem has been getting worse for decades,

and remarkably little has been done about it.

If you're a wizard, and you think that clean, abundant,

carbon-free nuclear power is key to fighting climate change,

then you have to worry

that the public willingness to build nukes is going down.

If you're a prophet, and you think that the solution to the same problem

is these neighborhood-run solar facilities shuttling power back and forth,

you have to worry that no nation anywhere in the world

has devoted anything like the resources necessary to develop this technology

and deploy it in the time that we need it.

And if you're on either side, wizard or prophet,

you have to worry that, despite the massive alarm about climate change,

the amount of energy generated every year from fossil fuels has gone up

by about 30 percent since the beginning of this century.

So, still think we're different than the protozoa?

Still think we're special?

Actually, it's even worse than that.

(Laughter)

We're not in the streets.

No seriously, if there's a difference between us and the protozoa,

a difference that matters,

it's not just our art and science and technology and so forth --

it's that we can yell and scream, we can go out into the streets,

and, over time, change the way society works,

but we're not doing it.

Wizards have been arguing literally for decades

that nuclear power is key to resolving climate change.

But the first pro-nuke march in history occurred less than two years ago,

and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke marches of the past.

Prophets have been arguing, again literally for decades,

that conservation is key to keeping freshwater supplies

without destroying the ecosystems that generate those freshwater supplies.

But in the history of humankind, there has never been a street

full of angry protesters waving signs about leaky pipes.

In fact, most of the political activity in this sphere

has been wizards and prophets fighting each other, protesting each other

rather than recognizing that they are, fundamentally, on the same side.

After all, these people are concerned about the same thing:

How are we going to make our way in the world of 10 billion?

The first step towards generating that necessary social movement,

creating that critical mass and getting that yelling and screaming going

seems obvious: wizards and prophets join together.

But how are you going to do this, given the decades of hostility?

One way might be this:

Each side agrees to accept the fundamental premises of the other.

Accept that nuclear power is safe and carbon-free,

and that uranium mines can be hideously dirty

and that putting large volumes of toxic waste on rickety trains

and shuttling them around the countryside is a terrible idea.

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of small,

neighborhood scale, temporary nukes,

nuclear power as a bridge technology while we develop and deploy renewables.

Or accept that genetically modified crops are safe

and that industrial agriculture has caused huge environmental problems.

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of plant scientists

devoting much more of their attention to tree and tuber crops,

which can be much more productive than cereals,

use much less water than cereals, and cause much less erosion than cereals.

These are just ideas from a random journalist.

I'm sure there's a hundred better ones right here in this room.

The main point is,

wizards and prophets working together have many paths to success.

And success would mean much more than mere survival,

important though that is.

I mean, if humankind somehow survives its own outbreak,

if we get food to everybody, get water to everybody,

get power to everybody,

if we avoid the worst effects of climate change,

if we somehow safeguard the biome,

it would be amazing.

It would say, I think,

even to a hardened cynic like me,

maybe we really are special.

Thank you.

(Applause)