This Is The BIGGEST Trap I've Seen In My 6 Years In Crypto..

Summary

This video script reveals the truth about the altcoin market, debunking the misconception of a current bull run. Empirical data suggests altcoins have underperformed despite Bitcoin's rally, with a significant price action discrepancy. The presenter discusses potential reasons for this underperformance, including Bitcoin's dominance due to the spot ETF approval and a lack of retail interest in altcoins beyond select sectors like memes. The script also explores the impact of token dilution and suggests altcoins may not peak until late 2024 or 2025, encouraging viewers to stay informed and take advantage of market opportunities.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker believes we are not currently in an altcoin bull run, despite what many people think, based on empirical evidence.
• 📈 There is a significant price action discrepancy between altcoins and Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin has been leading the market rally, not altcoins.
• 📊 The 'Others BTC' chart shows that altcoins are underperforming and are currently trading at levels lower than in October 2023, contrary to the perception of a bull run.
• 🏁 Only eight coins have broken their previous all-time high against Bitcoin since the fall of FTX, suggesting a lack of a broad altcoin market recovery.
• 📹 Crypto YouTube views have significantly dropped, indicating lower retail interest and sentiment, despite Bitcoin's high price near 70k.
• 📌 The altcoin index (Total 3) is significantly lagging behind Bitcoin's price recovery, being 78% away from its previous all-time high.
• 🔄 The altcoin market has experienced a cycle of performance with a lack of sustained interest outside of specific sectors like memes and AI.
• 💡 The current market is influenced by a Bitcoin catalyst, primarily the Bitcoin spot ETF approval, which has led to a Bitcoin-led rally rather than an altcoin one.
• 🚫 There is a lack of interest in the general altcoin market, with retail investors gravitating towards meme coins, causing a shift away from utility coins.
• 💰 The market is experiencing high levels of token dilution, with new token issuance reaching an all-time high, affecting the value of existing tokens.
• 📝 The speaker suggests that the altcoin market may not peak until late 2024 or 2025, based on historical market cycles, and advises viewers to monitor key indicators for market entry.

Q & A

What is the main argument presented in the video script about the altcoin market?

The video script argues that contrary to popular belief, we are not currently in an altcoin bull run. The speaker provides empirical evidence suggesting that altcoins have underperformed compared to Bitcoin and have not seen the same level of growth or recovery.

What is the significance of the 'Others BTC' chart in the context of the video?

The 'Others BTC' chart is significant because it represents the performance of all altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies. The speaker uses this chart to illustrate that altcoins are not performing well against Bitcoin and are actually making new lows, indicating that they are not in a bull run.

What campaign is mentioned in the video, and what does it involve?

The video mentions a campaign in partnership with bofin, where new users who sign up for a blof account using a provided link and deposit $100 or more are eligible to receive 100,000 Pepe, 10,000 Flaky, and three Whiff tokens. Additionally, there is a lucky wheel that users can spin for a chance to win various prizes.

How many tokens are given away in the bofin campaign for new users who sign up and deposit $100?

For new users who sign up and deposit $100, the campaign gives away 100,000 Pepe tokens, 10,000 Flaky tokens, and three Whiff tokens.

What is the purpose of the lucky wheel in the bofin campaign?

The lucky wheel in the bofin campaign allows users to spin for a chance to win various prizes, including large amounts of different tokens. Users can earn spins by building up volume on the exchange, with one entry for every $10,000 in Futures volume.

What giveaway was mentioned in the video, and how can winners claim their prize?

The video mentions a $100 giveaway for people who commented on the speaker's Vlogs indicating their country of origin. Winners are asked to reply to the speaker in the YouTube chain with their Solana address, which should be a native Sol wallet, to receive their prize in Solana on the Solana blockchain.

What is the current sentiment in the altcoin market according to the video?

According to the video, the current sentiment in the altcoin market is not positive, despite Bitcoin being near 70k. Many altcoins have retraced a lot of their yearly gains, and the market is experiencing a shakeout, leading to a negative sentiment among retail investors.

What is the speaker's view on the future of the altcoin market?

The speaker is cautiously optimistic about the future of the altcoin market. They believe that while the current situation is not indicative of a bull run, there is potential for a recovery and that the market could turn around, especially considering historical patterns and the possibility of retail investors returning.

What factors contribute to the underperformance of altcoins according to the video?

The video suggests several factors contributing to the underperformance of altcoins, including the market being led by a Bitcoin Catalyst (the Bitcoin spot ETF approval), lack of interest in the general altcoin market except for a few select sectors, high token dilution due to new token issuance, and the rotation of retail investors into meme coins.

What is the potential bullish scenario for altcoins presented in the video?

The bullish scenario presented in the video is based on the idea that the real altcoin rally typically happens towards the end of the bull run, once the 'Tipping Point' on total market cap is broken. If altcoins were to rally by 100% from the Tipping Point level, it could lead to a significant increase in the altcoin market cap and a potential explosion in altcoin values.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Altcoin Market Misconceptions

The speaker clarifies misconceptions about the altcoin market, asserting that despite popular belief, we are not in an altcoin bull run. Empirical evidence suggests otherwise, and the speaker aims to provide data-driven insights into the current state of the altcoin cycle. The video promises to change viewers' market perspectives, investment strategies, and timing of investments. The speaker also highlights a campaign with bofin, offering token giveaways for new account sign-ups and deposits, and announces the winners of a $100 giveaway from a previous engagement campaign.

05:01

📈 Bitcoin's Dominance Over Altcoins

This paragraph delves into the performance discrepancy between Bitcoin and altcoins, with Bitcoin experiencing a bull run while altcoins have not seen similar gains. Retail investors, who predominantly hold altcoins, are not benefiting as much from Bitcoin's surge. The speaker presents data showing altcoins' underperformance over the past year and emphasizes the difference in market sentiment despite Bitcoin's high valuation. The analysis includes the 'Others BTC' chart, illustrating altcoins' failure to sustain pumps and the impact of market narratives like AI and memes on altcoin performance.

10:02

📊 Data Points Indicating No Altcoin Bull Run

The speaker discusses various data points that support the argument against an ongoing altcoin bull run. These include the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, the number of coins breaking their all-time high post-FTX, and the decline in crypto YouTube views, which correlates with market sentiment. The data suggests that altcoins are underperforming, and the speaker challenges the viewer to reconsider their market assumptions based on this evidence.

15:04

🤔 Reasons Behind Altcoins' Underperformance

In this segment, the speaker explores the reasons behind altcoins' failure to rally, despite the overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. The primary catalyst for the market has been Bitcoin, particularly the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has driven significant inflows and price increases for Bitcoin but not for altcoins. The speaker also touches on the lack of interest in the general altcoin market, except for a few select sectors like meme coins and AI, and how this has contributed to the overall underperformance of altcoins.

20:06

💡 Market Dynamics and the Impact of Meme Coins

The speaker examines the impact of meme coins on the altcoin market, noting that the retail investor's shift towards meme coins has affected the performance of utility coins and other alts. This behavior has led to a market dominated by meme coins, which are difficult to trade and carry high risks. The speaker also discusses the issue of token dilution, with new token issuance reaching an all-time high, contributing to the decrease in value per token and affecting the overall altcoin market cap.

25:06

🔮 Future Outlook for Altcoins

The speaker provides an optimistic outlook for the altcoin market, despite the current underperformance. They discuss the uneven distribution of returns in the market and the potential for an altcoin rally based on historical data and market cycles. The speaker suggests that the altcoin market may be a year away from a peak, taking a balanced view between the extremes of market timing. They also highlight the importance of monitoring market data and being prepared for potential opportunities in the market.

30:07

🚀 Preparing for the Upcoming Altcoin Rally

In the final paragraph, the speaker encourages viewers to be prepared for the potential altcoin rally, suggesting that the current market conditions may present opportunities for strategic entry. They discuss the possibility of a low chop period for altcoins and advise viewers to stay informed and engaged with the market. The speaker also mentions a campaign offering incentives for new deposits and trading volume, providing a positive note to conclude the video.

Keywords

💡Altcoin Market

The term 'Altcoin Market' refers to the cryptocurrency market excluding Bitcoin. It encompasses a variety of digital currencies that exist alongside Bitcoin. In the video, the speaker discusses the misconception that the altcoin market is in a bull run, providing data to argue against this notion and explaining the current state of the altcoin market in relation to Bitcoin's performance.

💡Bull Run

A 'Bull Run' in financial terms is a period of time when the prices of securities are rising or are expected to rise. The video script challenges the popular belief that the altcoin market is currently experiencing a bull run, suggesting instead that it is primarily Bitcoin that has been in a bull run, with altcoins lagging behind.

💡Empirical Evidence

Empirical evidence refers to information that is based on observation and experience rather than theory. The speaker intends to use empirical evidence to support the claim that the altcoin market is not in a bull run, implying that data and observable market trends will be presented as the basis for this argument.

💡Market Cycle

The 'Market Cycle' represents the natural progression of growth and contraction in financial markets. The video aims to provide context on where the altcoin market sits within its cycle, which is crucial for understanding the potential for future growth or decline.

💡Sentiment

In the context of financial markets, 'Sentiment' refers to the overall attitude or mood that investors have towards a particular market or security. The script mentions that despite Bitcoin's high value, the sentiment in the altcoin market is not positive, indicating a disconnect between Bitcoin's performance and that of altcoins.

💡Retracement

A 'Retracement' is a term used in technical analysis to describe a price movement opposite to the prevailing trend. The script notes that many altcoins have experienced significant retracements, suggesting that they have lost a portion of their gains.

💡Macro Events

Macro events are large-scale occurrences that can influence the broader economy and financial markets. The speaker mentions that the market is reacting to upcoming macro events, suggesting that these occurrences could have a significant impact on the altcoin market.

💡Token Dilution

Token dilution occurs when new tokens are introduced into a market, increasing the total supply and potentially decreasing the value of existing tokens. The script discusses the issue of token dilution in the context of new token issuances, which could be contributing to the underperformance of altcoins.

💡Meme Coins

Meme coins are cryptocurrencies that are created as a joke or for fun, often based on internet memes. The video script notes that while meme coins have outperformed in certain periods, they have also contributed to market volatility and may not be sustainable investment options.

💡Liquidation Cascade

A 'Liquidation Cascade' happens when a significant drop in the price of an asset triggers a series of forced sales, leading to further price drops. The script refers to a liquidation cascade event that occurred in the altcoin market, indicating a sharp and potentially damaging decline in prices.

💡Crypto YouTube Views

This refers to the number of views that cryptocurrency-related content on YouTube receives. The script uses the metric of 'Crypto YouTube Views' as an indicator of market sentiment, suggesting that lower view counts may reflect a lack of interest or positive sentiment in the altcoin market.

Highlights

Contrary to popular belief, the altcoin market is not currently in a bull run, despite what the Bitcoin price and market sentiment may suggest.

Empirical evidence will be presented to challenge the misconception that the altcoin market is thriving.

Understanding the altcoin cycle is crucial for successful investing and timing investments in the current market.

Announcement of a new campaign with bofin, offering token giveaways for new account sign-ups and deposits.

Details of a lucky wheel feature where users can win various prizes, including tokens, based on trading volume.

Revelation of the winners for a $100 giveaway based on viewer engagement in a previous video.

Discussion of the price action discrepancy between altcoins and Bitcoin, indicating that altcoins are underperforming.

Only eight coins have broken their previous all-time high against Bitcoin since the fall of FTX.

Crypto YouTube views have significantly decreased, suggesting a lack of retail interest in altcoins.

Bitcoin's price action compared to the altcoin index shows Bitcoin outperforming and leading the market.

Altcoin performance has been lackluster over the last three quarters, with a few exceptions in select sectors.

The altcoin market has been primarily driven by a Bitcoin catalyst, specifically the Bitcoin spot ETF approval.

Interest in the general altcoin market has been limited, with a focus on meme coins and select sectors.

The ease of deploying smart contracts and the low barrier to entry in crypto have led to an increase in token dilution.

New token issuance on the EVM has reached an all-time high, contributing to market dilution and affecting altcoin prices.

The potential for an altcoin rally is still present, but the market may need to break a specific tipping point first.

Market cycles and historical data suggest that the altcoin market could peak in late 2024 or early 2025.

The current market sentiment is split between those who feel the market is hot and needs to cool off, and those anticipating a greater run.

The presenter's optimistic view of the market, suggesting that the real altcoin party has not yet started.

A reminder to stay informed, keep researching, and be prepared for potential opportunities in the market.

Transcripts

today I'm going to tell you the truth

the truth about the altcoin market

despite many people getting trapped into

thinking the exact opposite I think a

lot of people have been trapped into

thinking that we're in an altcoin Bull

Run when we actually aren't we have

empirical evidence suggesting against

this which I'm going to get into in

today's video because it contextualizes

exactly where we sit in the altcoin

cycle and understanding and interpreting

this data is going to be so important if

you want to succeed this cycle because

it's going to change the way that you

view the market it's going to change the

way that you invest and it's also going

to change the way you time your

investment so I believe today's video is

going to be a very very very important

one we're going to go through all the

data relating to the altcoin market

looking at why I do not believe we're in

a bull run and a lot of people are

getting trapped as a result result of

that thinking and then I'm going to get

into what could happen next for the

altcoin market off the back of this data

when can we expect a recovery for TS

will there be a recovery for altcoins

and More in today's video so without

further Ado let's get into it as you can

see in front of you it's a little bit

nasty on the market right now for

altcoin a lot of them have retraced a

lot of their yearly gains over the last

few weeks especially over the last few

days Market a little bit shaky and

drisking into a few macro events that

are coming later this week but before we

get into the major data that I want to

take a look at because some of it is

negative data I want to give you a

little bit of joy in today's video

towards the beginning and that is

firstly the announcement of a new

campaign that I have going with bofin so

what we're going to be doing is giving

away 100,000 Pepe 10,000 flaky and three

whiff tokens to anybody that signs up to

a new blof account using the Link in the

description and deposits $100 or more so

just for signing up to a new account

you're going to get your hands on

100,000 pep Bay 10,000 flowy and three

whiff for the first 200 users only as

long as you deposit $100 and then after

you've done that you can move over to

the lucky wheel where you can spin the

wheel and win 5,000 Pepe 300,000 FY 100

whiff 5 million flaky 1 million Pepe or

any of the prizes here on the wheel you

don't need to deposit in order to spin

the wheel if you're an existing user you

can spin the wheel the way that you earn

lucky spins is via building up volume on

the exchange so you'll get one entry for

every $10,000 in Futures volume and it's

unlimited entries meaning the more you

trade the more you spin I had people in

my Discord from the last campaign that

we ran with just Pepe now we've got Pepe

whiff and Flaky spinning 40 50 times in

a month because they naturally acre

volume from from trading on the exchange

so little bit of good news to start this

video if you do want to sign up and get

access to this awesome campaign there is

a link in the description below to

blowen the second piece of good news for

today's video is I have selected the

winners for the $100 giveaway that I

discussed last week for people that

commented which country they're from on

my Vlogs to work out whether you're a

winner you want to go onto that video

and see if I've replied to your comments

you can see I've replied to team Melanie

here Jim Birdman a bunch of of people

randomly and basically all you have to

do if you are selected as a winner is

reply to me in this YouTube chain so

just click reply with your salana

address that should be a native Soul

wallet so I can send you salana on the

salana blockchain as you can see I've

selected a bunch of people here you're

each going to win $100 of salana so

congratulations to all the winners to

check if you're a winner go onto that

video and see if I've reply to your

comment in the top right of the YouTube

page on desktop there's also a little

notification bar which will let you know

if you've received a new reply so

congrats to everyone there I might run a

future giveaway for subsequent episodes

of the miles Deutsche Vlog Channel as I

start to upload more of this content but

let's get into the meat and the potatoes

of the video here there are a few

different sections the first section I

want to start with and it's the most

important for understanding where we

currently sit in the market in order to

be objective towards the market and

unbiased towards the market and that of

course is the data that suggests that

alt coin aren't in a bull run now I know

it sounds kind of weird um to sit here

and say look we aren't in a bull run

because you know you look at Bitcoin at

70k you look at Celebrities talking

about memes again coinbase in the top 10

on the app store again and all of these

typically positive signs tend to lend

towards the fact that retails back and

lend towards the fact that altcoins are

in a bull run but when you actually look

at the price action discrepancy between

alts and Bitcoin it becomes very clear

that we actually have not been in an

altcoin Bull Run we've been in a Bitcoin

Bull Run we've been in a mean coin bull

run but the majority of retail they

don't hold a large amount of Bitcoin

they aren't meme coin experts they hold

ults on centralized exchanges and then

it starts to become more obvious why

there is a major discrepancy right now

between the sentiment of retailing the

market sentiment on Twitter and even

YouTube right now is not that great

despite Bitcoin being near 70k and it

becomes much clearer when you look at

well alt coins actually haven't

performed that well this year haven't

really performed that well over the last

8 months and it's no wonder why people

do feel a little bit annoyed do feel a

little bit impatient are capitulating

just a tiny bit because a lot of them

aren't capitalized in these other assets

like Bitcoin and memec coins which have

been outperforming now there is a graph

here which contextualizes exactly what

I'm saying perfectly and this is the

others BTC chart others is the

cryptocurrency index outside of the top

10 so this should represent all of the

altcoins in the market falling outside

of the top 10 which is mostly

capitalized of things like Bitcoin e BNB

usdt usdc Etc so those are obviously

outliers when you go outside of that the

picture becomes very clear seeing that

we are currently at a lower level than

we were during October

2023 so sitting 8 months on from October

2023 where the major Bitcoin rally began

we are nowr ly lower so there was a

period during that initial rally when

Bitcoin started running up due to the

spot Bitcoin ETF where altcoins actually

outperformed this is likely by way of

the fact that ults were so oversold

during the 2022 FTX period and then

heading into 2023 so when Bitcoin

recovered SS recovered a little bit

faster because a lot of them had

aggressive repricing to do after being

smacked down into crazy lows right so

they outperformed but as the market

started to develop and we've seen some

other narrative rotations like Ai and

memes start to come to the foray of the

market the majority of the altcoin pumps

have failed to sustain and this is in

light of Bitcoin actually maintaining

its relative strength not only versus

crypto but also against the US dollar

being at 70k and a lot of other asset

classes I know Bitcoins are like 67 68k

but 65k 75 70 it's all pretty much the

same for Bitcoin obviously though within

that range where Bitcoin might move in

5K increments altcoins can do a lot of

upside or in this case a lot of damage

as they're kind of moving on a

heightened risk beta SL sentiment to the

Bitcoin price itself so this was one of

the most telling charts when I was

digging through the data to try and

understand this question of why is

sentiment so bad despite Bitcoin being

near 70k because this chart pretty much

sums it up exactly altcoins are not

performing well versus Bitcoin they're

actually making new lows now technically

we are still above the Wick low that we

made on April 14th during that

liquidation Cascade um but by and large

in terms of a consecutive period of

trading in a Range we are below that

level in October for the longest we've

been which is pretty crazy now the

second data point which I found super

interesting which also lends towards

this theory of us not actually being in

an altcoin Bull Run is the fact that

since the fall of FTX only eight coins

eight have broken their previous

all-time high versus Bitcoin now

obviously this sample size is inclusive

of coins that were around in 2022 so

it's naturally not going to include some

of the memes for example that I

mentioned earlier like Pepe with Etc

which have been performing simply

because they do not qualify under the

pretense of a coin that has been around

since FTX most Majors however have been

around since FTX when you think about

the majority of the altcoin market and

many of those coins in fact most of

those coins have not managed to break

their previous all-time high versus

Bitcoin and this is just another data

point going hand inand with the others

BTC chart which clearly demonstrates

that altcoins aren't performing that

strongly and then you have metric number

three which I find really interesting

and this is the crypto YouTube views so

you can see that Bitcoin at 70k in 2021

was yielding 4 million views a day on

crypto YouTube these are all the biggest

channels actually for some reason I

wasn't included but anyway uh Mr

Benjamin Cowan who made this indicator

uh I I do forgive you but if you want an

updated list I can give you some new

channels but basically he has listed a

lot of the major channels that were

around in the last bll and also around

now and it shows you that they were

getting 4 million views a day in 2021 in

2024 they're only getting 800,000 views

a day despite Bitcoin being near that

70k level and this is kind of the

reverse data point that I was showing

before because this is not

representative of altcoins Performing

poorly it's showing a major symptom

as to why altcoins are performing poorly

the symptom being the YouTube views

because YouTube views are

symptomatic of sentiment in the market

when retail because most retail holds

altcoins primarily and not Bitcoin when

altcoins are performing well sentiment

increases when all coins are performing

poorly sentiment decreases leading to

oscillating view counts AKA really high

views when alts are outperforming the

market in March 2021 and really low

views when altcoins are underperforming

the market

in June 2024 but it's really interesting

to look at versus the Bitcoin price

because it doesn't actually make sense

on face value and there's also this

hopium argument when you look at this

chart that you know it's only a matter

of time that retail is going to come

back and this discrepancy will

eventually be ironed out and then

there's a lot of upside during that

period that's something I'm going to get

into at the end of the video when I talk

about what I think is next for altcoins

because it is rational logic in a sense

but that's also a couple caveats uh that

I have to present when going tooo

heavily down that line of thinking the

fourth out of the fifth data point that

suggests that we are not in an allcoin

Bull Run um and I think it's becoming

quite clear by now but all of this data

is super important and interesting is

simply mapping out the Bitcoin price

action versus total 3 which is the

altcoin index you can see that Bitcoin

right now is currently sitting 9% from

its previous all-time high 67 to 73k but

if you look at total three the altcoin

index it's currently sitting 78% away

from its previous all-time high so

Bitcoin basically from the bottom has

managed to move up 315 in price whereas

the altcoin index from the bottom has

only moved up

122% in price which basically means

Bitcoin has been outperforming and

leading the market thus

far this chart actually does give me a

bit of hopium because when you purely

look at it from a price p performance

perspective you know one could consider

a potential discrepancy shortening here

resulting in altcoins catching up to

bitcoin given the fact that Bitcoin is

pushing up against its alltime high and

alts still have a long way to go but at

the end of the video I'll talk about

this in a little more depth but this

chart really does say it all if you want

a visual representation for the market

lagging and then the fifth data point

for why allcoins aren't in a bull run

and I found this really interesting is

how they've been performing cyclically

over the last three quarters I really

like this summary from Eugene which

contextualizes altcoin performance so

far and how it's transformed this cycle

so Q4 2023 everything off lows no fear

of the cycle being over many multiples

achieved on the majority of alts across

different verticals cool q1 2024 several

charts resetting but crazier moves on

select alts occur dispersion begins to

take effect with good Al still running

very hard but picking the wrong coin you

likely wouldn't have made a ton and I

did notice just anecdotally looking at

the YouTube views engagements on my post

Etc that the March period during that

final AI run was really the local top

for the market in terms of retail

sentiment there was a period of maybe

two to three weeks where retail really

quite quickly came back to the market

and then really soon left after the

market started to reverse and we got

that ShakeOut in the beginning of April

so it shows that if you want to look at

it from the positive lens retail does

have the the propensity to come back in

droves when there are catalysts and when

there is a little bit of hype but that

hype is very reflexive and shortlived

because it's highly reliant on price so

I guess when you're asking the question

of what's it going to take for retail to

get back this cycle the answer could be

as simple as higher prices and higher

prices don't necessarily have to be a

result of retail coming back higher

prices can be driven by insiders and

liquid funds Etc driving price up due to

crypto specific macro Catalyst and then

retail can come in and give it that

final push so that is one of the

positives in the market when you do look

at you know the whole when is retail

going to come back question but q1

really did show how quickly they can

come back but also how quickly they can

leave and then heading into Q2 I mean we

had that Big D leveraging event at the

start of April things started to become

choppy dispersion really increased

Bitcoin chopped within a range and most

alts blade a lot of their gains and

that's why you see the others BTC chart

bleeding during this period despite

Bitcoin being pretty stagnant in that

range here between 60k and 70k it looks

quite small when you zoom out on the

weekly but you'd be really surprised

looking at the one day 4 hour for the

alts because they've been so volatile

even though Bitcoin really is just

moving sideways in a Range so now you

have a better understanding of what's

happened in the altcoin market I think

the next really important thing to

understand before we of course get into

what's next Vol coins is wild haven't

rallied so we've talked about the data

and it gives you maybe 50% Insight but

the other really important 50% Insight

is why alts haven't rallied what are the

reasons for this underperformance

because it's easy to sit back and say

look alts have underperformed blah blah

blah but you know why why is this the

case you have to ask the way in order to

really really really understand the

inner workings of this market and thus

become a more profitable Trader the

first reason ult have significantly

underperformed is because this Market

was led by a Bitcoin Catalyst primarily

this is of course the Bitcoin spot ETF

approval and its subsequent inflows

which surprised a lot of people and we

know this is the major driver behind the

market because the real rally for

Bitcoin began in October 20123 at

27k and the most extended leg happened

during the period of a lead up into the

approval and then B the second leg

happened post approval when the inflows

surprised people for the positive and we

saw that second leg to the upside from

40K to 70k so this was largely a spot

ETF rally a Bitcoin Le rally and

although the rising tide does lift All

Ships and although we did see altcoins

still perform well during that period

don't get me wrong like if you do look

at the altcoin market uh from October it

still went up 100% it just didn't go up

300% like Bitcoin because it was a

Bitcoin Le rally and then SS were a

beneficiary but not a major beneficiary

and this is because the macro conditions

weren't really lined up for alts in this

stage of the cycle they were lined up

for a Bitcoin rally and look one can

make the argument that Bitcoin leading a

rally is actually quite positive and

healthy for the market because we want

Market structure to begin with a strong

Bitcoin pump and then we want that

siphoning effect happening when the time

is right and when the stars are lying

for an altcoin run which they haven't

yet so part of me is bearish on the fact

that altcoins have underperformed versus

Bitcoin um but pomy is also optimistic

and bullish because that is healthy

Market structure and we do need Bitcoin

to typically lead rallies otherwise

there simply a won't be enough liquidity

to sustain a pump in the General market

and B Bitcoin going up is great

marketing for crypto it lends a lot of

legitimacy to crypto I mean the spot ETF

approval for Bitcoin led to the E ETF

approval which is obviously a major

positive for crypto so these are all

positive advancements but of course in

the short to medium term not all of

these advancements are necessarily

realized in the way of price in the

market the next reason why altcoins have

underperformed is because of interest

there hasn't been interest in the

General altcoin market aside from a few

select sectors so you have mem coin

significantly out performing you have

rwa performing AI we saw some lsds

perform but apart from these very select

sectors most stuff is down nfts are down

derivatives are down options are down

real yields down l1s are down dexes are

down l2s are down gamei is down it's

basically a meme coin super cycle

because a lot of the retail that's come

into the market they haven't gravitated

towards the centralized exchange olds

they've gone straight to the meme coins

they've gone straight to the bottom of

the barrel and look this is a deep per

problem which I'll probably get into in

a future video but one of the major

reasons I believe this is the case is

because a lot of retail don't see the

moneymaking potential in the market by

holding

High fdv alts by holding you know big

utility old coins a lot of the price

Discovery by the time a lot of these new

coins list on the market has already

been realized in the early stage the VCS

have priced it at $10 billion it lists

at $10 billion getting into a coin at 10

billion even if it's the shiniest newest

most amazing piece of technology it's

not that enticing so retail that wants

to make money in crypto they've had to

jump right down the risk curve into

things like memes to have a shot at

turning $1,000 into $100,000 because

you're not going to do it on a lot of

majors and I think a lot of the issues

in the current altcoin market are

actually a symptom of what has been

happening in the pre-market the VC

Market the early stage rounds Market the

fact that price Discovery is now

happening prior to launch this is a

major issue that has resulted in

valuations that are simply too high

unsustainable an insane amount of

dilution coming into the market and and

a lot of people don't know where to turn

and they've jumped straight for memes

but this is also tricky right because a

lot of you won't be meme coin experts

most people aren't mcoin experts memes

are hard to trade like I've hit some

good memes hit a 50x on Pepe did well on

whiff maybe like a 5 10x there hit a

couple other memes like a 10x this year

but a lot of them would just luck and

there's also been five or six examples

of times where I put you know $510,000

into a meme and lost all my money so

you're kind of spraying and praying to

try and catch a couple mcoin winners but

you're going to hit eight losers along

the way and by and large that's really

the strategy behind investing in meme

coins this cycle unless you know you're

going a bit safer some have talked about

on these shows and going for the leaders

but because it's not easy to make money

in memes or at least it's harder than

some people think it's kind of created

an issue for the market because a lot of

people that are in the utility coins

have rotated out of those positions to

chase the mcoin runs like if you've been

sitting in you know madic optim M

arbitrum Etc you would be fomo because

you're seeing everyone everyone make

money in memes right and then you get

trapped into selling your quality bags

and putting it into memes and then

spraying and praying and getting wrecked

on eight coins and then it's just bad

for the market overall you're putting

your money in the hands of the Insiders

that got into the memes early these are

the big whales they're they're not

genuine holders in the market you have

real retail exiting because they've just

rotated their utility bags and gotten

wrecked on that trade and then you see

even more people leaving crypto so it's

an interesting argument because although

memes are a good attractor genuinely for

retail to come into crypto they're also

a bit of a detractor especially if

you're a fundamentalist because this

Cycle's been so frustrating to trade and

a lot of people that have moved into the

meme coins out of these utility

positions have gotten burnt and that's

people getting burnt in the market is

not great for the market and it's

probably another reason why SS haven't

rallied because people are still getting

over the PTSD from the FTX days Etc and

then of course one of the issues I was

alluding to before and this is a result

of the mem coin Mania as well is the

crazy token dilution we're getting we

can see that the new token issuance on

evm in one month in May was two times

the total amount of tokens ever created

between 2015 and 2023 so there's an

all-time high amount of dilution coming

onto the market which means although

alts might be creeping up in terms of

overall market cap a lot of major caps

simply aren't running or they're

bleeding because liquidity is rotating

into these new coins and it's just a

constant case of dilution it's it's it's

very very simple if you're going to

inflate a currency and in this case

we're looking at the token economy as a

whole if you're going to inflate that

Supply the value per unit is going to

drop it's the same thing that's happened

if you want a real world example to the

US dollar pretty much every major

Central Bank currency over the last 50

years as they continue to issue currency

so you know the US government printing

US dollars that dollar is going to go

down in value and that's why relative to

Goods the US dollar is weaker so petrol

is higher you know your iPhone costs

more they used to be $199 now they're

what $15,000 food's more expensive

shopping's more expensive rent's more

expensive that's a result in part to

inflation of money Printing and it's the

same in the crypto Market as more tokens

are created the price per token actually

decreases if you want to average it out

by the total Market C divided by the

total amount of tokens in the market to

get that number that number doesn't

matter though because we have the data

here we know that the tokens on the

blockchain being issued are pretty much

at their alltime high and it's for a few

reasons mcoin Mania obviously is one of

the major reasons but also the ease of

deploying smart contracts with things

like pump. fun the salana stats weren't

even referen here but they're crazy

they're even more crazy than this and I

excluded them because they were a bit of

an outlier but you know that's obviously

crazy um and obviously it's easier than

ever cheaper than ever to get developers

Etc and crypto is a very easy industry

to to deploy a project and raise Capital

that's a low barrier to entry compared

to tradire where it's actually really

hard to get a product off the ground

which I guess the low barrier to entry

in crypto is a good thing because it

democratizes entrepreneurship and

creativity but it's also a negative

thing because it means it's easier for

grifter to enter the space and easy for

people to extract value from the space

with less downside risk or or less

barriers and of course this new token

launch craze has also resulted in a lot

of dilution now the official number is

that there's $60 Million worth of linear

unlocks per day across the majors but I

can tell you this number is a lot higher

if you want to look into the market

that's not priced on token unlocks so

the you know top 500 top 1,000 top 2,000

tokens you'll notice that the number is

closer to $200 million of new dilution

per day so this is new Supply from

existing tokens not even new tokens

launching that was the first point the

next point is existing tokens that are

looting World coin salana avac you know

Stark arbitrum Aptos all these coins

putting Supply Supply Supply onto the

market and look what happens when you

get a bunch of new Supply on the market

and not a bunch of new retail coming in

and buying alts prices are going to go

down so it's not really hard to work out

now why prices have been going down on a

lot of vaults it's it's not hard to work

out at all it's a dilution issue it's a

sentiment issue it's everything combined

everything I've talked about to really

paint this overall picture of look we're

not in an allcoin bull run but you may

have already known that and look I hope

you found some of the data interesting

and helpful in the way that you view and

approach the market but what can you do

about it now when will things turn

around if so when I don't want this

video to be overly bearish or sound

overly scared or worried because that's

actually not how I view the market at

all I am quite bullish on the mid to

long-term prospects of the market um I

do believe things are going to turn

around around it's in the data as well

so let's discuss that even though I

think you got to be wary of these things

to actually make better decisions which

we're going to get into now part of the

reason why there's disagreement if you

ask people where we are in the cycle is

as cred points out here the sheer

discrepancy and difference between

returns so returns this cycle have been

unevenly distributed the Bitcoin eth

large cap midcap small capup trade

hasn't really panned out so you really

have two camps in the market right now

you have Camp a who rode things like

Bitcoin soul and memes they feel like

the Market's really hot and probably

needs to cool off and maybe they aren't

as bullish on the prospects of the

market and then you have the second Camp

which have barely made any money because

they're in altcoins they feel like stuff

hasn't even picked up yet you know

they're not heavily in Bitcoin Solen

memes and they're anticipating a greater

run coming at some point soon because

for them they've already made insane

profits in the market so I thought this

was a great tweet by cred because it's

shows why there's a bit of an argument

but argument aside there's clear data

that actually indicates or can give us

at least a bit of a bearing because not

every cycle is the same as to where we

sit so what you're looking at here is a

chart the red line is each harving 2016

2020

2024 the blue line here is the line

which represents how many days it took

for the total crypto market cap

excluding Bitcoin so altcoins and

ethereum to pick so in 2016 it was 546

days from Haring to Peak in 2020 it was

546 days from Haring to Peak again now

2024 we've just had the harving so

actually we're in this period now we're

in this period

now we're in this period of the market

shouldn't even be that bullish for

altcoins if you want to look at the past

two cycles because the Run typically

doesn't happen until the year prior that

would suggest in 546 days from the

harving in 2024 uh in mid April that we

would see a bull run peak in October

2025 this suggests we're over a year

away from an altcoin

Peak now this is interesting data

because look I don't believe you can

look at two data points one two and say

look three is going to play out exactly

the same it's also going to be 546 days

that means we're going to hit a peek in

October that means we're so early I

don't think you can say that because

markets evolve markets are tied to macro

2021 and 2022 respectively for macro and

crypto knocked things around a lot we

are seeing alltime High delution we're

seeing a left leing cycle from a Bitcoin

perspective Bitcoin broke its alltime

high the earliest in a cycle that it

ever has so that suggests that we are

left

leaning however if I had to guess I

would say it's somewhere in the middle

of these two

expectations we aren't left leaning

enough in my opinion for us to have

topped already but we aren't elongated

enough for us in my opinion to be

topping next year in October I think the

answer is somewhere in the middle

somewhere in this range here more

conservatively Q4 late Q4 this year to

early to mid q1 next year to maybe a bit

more of a mild expectation of maybe a Q2

Peak 2025 this is my best expectation

currently based on the price action that

we are seeing

as to when I do think we we get see an

altcoin rally and remember altcoin

rallies the real run typically doesn't

happen until you break the Tipping Point

on total three now the Tipping Point was

on February 15th in 2021 where altcoins

after breaking out from that level

rallied

144% The Tipping Point for this cycle

because that was the initial High we've

seen a rejection we're now in this flag

is at 790 billion so if we do similar

gains from that level and rally another

100 % this would take us to 1.5 trillion

on the altcoin market cap which honestly

if this happens alts would absolutely

explode things would be crazy we're all

rich and you know amazing

basically so this is the bullish

scenario here that this final leg for

altcoins are where pretty much all of

the gains are made and we haven't even

broken that Tipping Point yet so the

real altcoin party does not start until

we break that level and it's usually in

the final months of the bull run that

you get that extended leg to the upside

and if you do want to look at where

altcoins sit right now I know we're

currently in a bit of chop and there's a

bit of panic online look we're still in

this

wedge the low for alts is 560 if we if

we do want to go down and we break down

and test range low we're probably going

to come down to this level I imagine

we're going to respond off this level if

not we could end up actually recovering

here breaking out to the upside of this

flag and testing range highs it's all

about monitoring the data this week

there's a lot of macro data I'm very

cautious to say on this stream you know

where my bias lies in the short term

because data can change things quick

this is a drisking prior to these events

but we are still actually in this flag

overall overall though if you want to

look from a macro perspective because

this is a more of a macro related show

it's this level 780 that you want to

look out for until then we can chop

sideways this could be a low vault chop

period for crypto and what I would say

to you um is just be prepared for it you

know if summer ends up being a low chop

period for crypto it's an amazing period

to actually start exposing yourself to

the market taking advantage when you get

low volume you can get these Cascades

these Wicks some altcoins can be

relatively liquid this can give you

price action which leads to entries so

do keep that in mind and I did mention

this on my show on Friday that this can

actually be an opportunistic period for

people that are willing to get involved

during this period because you know we

know Q4 historically is a better quarter

for cryptocurrency and lining up with

previous cycle performance if you look

at the fractals like I just showed you

crypto typically does start to wake up

uh towards the end of the Haring year

and the early stages of the post harving

year and that's really positive for the

market so stick in there keep

researching keep hustling because these

short-term sentiment swings are super

fickle I think you can take this video

in in two ways you can take it in one

way damn we're not an all coin Bull Run

I was misled I was trapped you know it's

over or you can take it in the positive

light of we are not even in an all Cen

Bull Run look at what happened with a

tiny slice in March what happens when we

get a bigger slice and that is more of

the optimistic approach that I tend to

take to the market and then obviously we

can use PA technicals Etc to give us a

bit of bearing of when we are

potentially getting into that mode total

3 is one basic way that you can look at

this the clearing of the previous highs

here but also there are many other

indexes you can use others BTC BTC as

the leader of the alt Etc are all

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out