What is acceptable risk?

Summary

Mickey Leonard, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, discusses the concept of acceptable risk in the context of swine and poultry industries. She explains the process of risk assessment, which includes identifying hazards, evaluating likelihood and consequences, and implementing mitigation strategies. Leonard emphasizes the importance of collaboration with stakeholders and the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods to determine risk levels. She also highlights the role of pre-movement isolation periods and targeted surveillance in reducing the spread of diseases. The presentation concludes with the notion that acceptable risk is case-specific and must be balanced through dialogue between regulatory bodies and the industry.

Takeaways

• 🔬 Mickey Leonard is a researcher for the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota, focusing on risk assessments for the swine and poultry industries.
• 📈 Risk is defined by the World Organization for Animal Health as the likelihood of an adverse event occurring and the magnitude of its biological and economic impact on animal or human health.
• 🚨 The Secure Food Systems team conducts risk assessments to evaluate the potential spread of foreign animal diseases and their impact on agricultural continuity.
• 🤝 Risk assessments are collaborative, involving federal and state regulators, veterinarians, and industry representatives to understand the full extent of risk.
• 📊 Risk assessments combine both qualitative and quantitative analysis, looking at the probability of transmission and detection of viruses in farms.
• 🧩 The risk analysis framework includes hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.
• 🛡️ Pre-movement isolation periods are critical for biosecurity, minimizing the likelihood of exposure to pathogens and increasing the chances of detection before movement.
• ⚖️ Risk is calculated by multiplying the likelihood of an event by its consequence, considering both direct and indirect effects.
• 🏞️ Risk management involves implementing feasible mitigations based on scientific principles and considering the experiences and expertise of diverse stakeholders.
• 📉 Acceptable risk is determined on a case-by-case basis, balancing regulatory requirements with additional measures that farms can implement to reduce personal risk.
• 💬 Effective risk communication is essential, especially when dealing with different risk appetites and perceptions among stakeholders.

Q & A

What is the role of Mickey Leonard in the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota?

Mickey Leonard is a researcher for the Secure Fruit Systems team at the University of Minnesota. She works with a team to produce risk assessments for all species, focusing on the continuity of business movements for the swine and poultry industries, as well as the aquatic industry.

What is the definition of 'risk' according to the World Organization for Animal Health?

The World Organization for Animal Health defines risk as the likelihood of the occurrence and the likely magnitude of the biological and economic consequences of an adverse event or effect to animal or human health.

What are the main concerns when conducting risk assessments for swine and foreign animal diseases?

The main concerns are the likelihood that a farm might be infected and the potential spread of the disease to other farms, locations, or susceptible species.

How do the risk assessments facilitate agricultural continuity of business?

The risk assessments facilitate agricultural continuity by providing science-based evaluations of the likelihood and consequences of specific pathogens, allowing for the implementation of measures to reduce risk and maintain business operations.

What is the difference between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments?

Qualitative risk assessments evaluate the likelihood and consequences of a risk without numerical values, while quantitative risk assessments use numerical data to calculate the probability of transmission and the potential impact of an event.

What is the purpose of the pre-movement isolation period in risk management?

The pre-movement isolation period is a critical biosecurity component that minimizes the likelihood of a premises being exposed to a pathogen and increases the likelihood of detecting an infected premises, thereby reducing the risk of moving infected but undetected animals or animal products.

How does the risk assessment framework start with hazard identification?

The risk assessment framework begins with hazard identification by considering the pathogen of concern, understanding its concepts, and how it operates, which is essential for evaluating the likelihood and consequences of its entry, establishment, and spread within a region.

What are the components of risk management in the context of the risk assessment process?

Risk management involves taking the information from the risk assessment and implementing mitigation measures to reduce the level of risk, such as enhanced biosecurity measures, targeted surveillance, and ensuring compliance with good agricultural practices.

How is the overall risk determined in the risk assessment process?

The overall risk is determined by qualitatively combining the likelihoods of individual pathways, assuming all applicable preventative measures are in place, and considering the potential consequences and mitigations that can be implemented.

What is the concept of 'acceptable risk' and how is it determined?

Acceptable risk is a level of risk that is deemed appropriate and tolerable by stakeholders, including regulatory bodies and the industry. It is determined on a case-by-case basis, considering the specific circumstances, potential consequences, and the effectiveness of implemented mitigation measures.

How does the Secure Food Systems team approach the challenge of balancing personal experiences with empirical data in risk assessments?

The team balances personal experiences with empirical data by ensuring that the risk assessment is representative of the farms in general, considering the evidence supporting different thoughts, and incorporating the expertise and experiences of the diverse work group members.

What is the 'Swiss cheese' approach in risk management and how is it applied?

The 'Swiss cheese' approach in risk management refers to layering different mitigation measures to enhance protection against risks. Each layer represents a different control measure, and by stacking these layers, potential gaps in individual measures can be covered by others, creating a more robust defense against risks.

How does the Secure Food Systems team communicate the results of risk assessments to stakeholders with different risk appetites and perceptions?

The team communicates risk assessment results by working closely with individual farms, state, and federal regulators to provide support and understanding on a case-by-case basis. They also create permit guidances that condense important information from lengthy risk assessments, making it more understandable and accessible.

How are risk assessments conducted by the Secure Food Systems team, and what factors drive the decision to do them remotely?

Risk assessments are primarily conducted remotely through Zoom work groups and literature reviews. The decision to conduct assessments remotely is driven by the ability to gather comprehensive information from stakeholders and industry representatives, as well as the practicality of conducting extensive reviews without the need for on-site visits.

Outlines

00:00

🔬 Introduction to Risk Assessment in Agriculture

The first speaker, Mickey Leonard, introduces the concept of risk assessment within the context of the swine and poultry industries. She explains that her team at the University of Minnesota's Secure Food Systems conducts risk assessments to evaluate the likelihood and impact of adverse events affecting animal and human health. The assessments are crucial for maintaining business continuity and are based on scientific evidence and collaboration with stakeholders, including federal and state regulators and industry representatives. The talk outlines the framework for risk analysis, including hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.

05:00

📈 Understanding Risk: Definition and Equation

Mickey Leonard delves deeper into the definition of risk, as provided by the World Organization for Animal Health, emphasizing the importance of evaluating both the likelihood of an event and its potential consequences. She introduces the risk equation, which multiplies the likelihood of an event by its consequences, and discusses the direct and indirect effects of such events. Leonard also touches on the variability of risk assessments, which can differ based on the type of movement and the specific conditions of each farm.

10:02

🚫 Pre-Movement Isolation Period: A Key Biosecurity Measure

The speaker explains the critical role of the pre-movement isolation period (PMIP) in biosecurity, which is a period of intensified biosecurity measures prior to the movement of animals. These measures include restrictions on the movement of animals and people, enhanced biosecurity for vehicles, and the prohibition of waste removal from the premises. The PMIP is essential for minimizing the risk of exposure to pathogens and increasing the chances of detecting an infection before movement.

15:02

🔍 Risk Management: Strategies and Feasibility

Mickey Leonard discusses the importance of risk management in reducing the identified risks through scientifically grounded mitigations. She stresses the need for feasibility, ensuring that farms can implement the measures without significant disruption. The speaker also highlights the importance of stakeholder involvement in determining the effectiveness of these mitigations and ensuring that the selected measures result in an appropriate level of protection.

20:04

🏆 Maximizing Risk Management Through Layered Mitigations

The speaker illustrates how risk can be managed by layering different mitigations, drawing an analogy with the Swiss cheese model, where multiple layers of protection reduce the likelihood of risk. Leonard provides examples of general and specific biosecurity measures, such as dedicated PPE and targeted surveillance, that can be implemented to enhance protection. She emphasizes the need to balance the effectiveness of mitigations with their practicality and the potential for reducing risk to acceptable levels.

25:14

🤔 The Concept of Acceptable Risk and Its Determination

Mickey Leonard addresses the complex issue of determining what constitutes an acceptable level of risk, which varies depending on the specific circumstances and stakeholders involved. She explains that while zero risk is unattainable, risk can be reduced to levels that are deemed acceptable through a collaborative process involving regulatory bodies and industry experts. The speaker also discusses the importance of communication in conveying the findings of risk assessments and managing different perceptions of risk.

🗣️ Balancing Empirical Data with Personal Experiences in Risk Assessment

In the concluding part of the script, the discussion turns to the question-and-answer session where the balance between empirical data and personal experiences in risk assessment is explored. Mickey Leonard explains how the team considers the representativeness of experiences and the evidence supporting different viewpoints. She also discusses the process of communicating risk assessments, particularly the challenges of dealing with diverse risk appetites and perceptions among stakeholders.

🏭 Remote Risk Assessments and Their Implications

The final part of the script addresses a question about the method of conducting risk assessments, whether remotely or on-site. Mickey Leonard explains that while remote assessments are common, the team is open to on-site visits when possible. She details the process of understanding the pathways and steps involved in a movement, working closely with stakeholders and conducting literature reviews to ensure the assessments are as representative as possible.

Keywords

💡Risk Assessment

Risk assessment is a systematic process of evaluating the likelihood and potential consequences of an adverse event or effect. In the context of the video, it is used to evaluate the risk of disease transmission in the swine and poultry industries. The speaker, Mickey Leonard, discusses how risk assessments are conducted by considering the likelihood of infection and the potential spread of disease, which is crucial for maintaining business continuity and ensuring animal health and welfare.

💡Secure Food Systems

Secure Food Systems is a team at the University of Minnesota that Mickey Leonard is a part of. Their focus is on producing risk assessments for various species, particularly in the context of foreign animal diseases. The team's work is vital for the continuity of business in the swine and poultry industries, as they help to identify and mitigate risks associated with disease outbreaks.

💡Continuity of Business

Continuity of business refers to the ability of an organization to continue its operations during and after a disruptive event. In the video, Mickey Leonard explains that the risk assessments conducted by the Secure Food Systems team are aimed at facilitating agricultural continuity, ensuring that the swine and poultry industries can continue to operate even in the face of potential disease outbreaks.

💡Aquatic Industry

The aquatic industry is mentioned as another area of focus for the Secure Food Systems team. This industry involves the farming of aquatic organisms, such as fish and shellfish. The team's work in this area is similar to their work in the swine and poultry industries, focusing on risk assessments to prevent the spread of diseases in aquatic species.

💡Animal Health and Welfare

Animal health and welfare is a central theme in the video, as it is the primary concern driving the work of the Secure Food Systems team. The term refers to the physical and mental well-being of animals, including their protection from disease and suffering. Mickey Leonard's interest in this area led her to join the team, where she contributes to the development of risk assessments that aim to protect animal health and welfare.

💡Pathogen

A pathogen is a biological agent, such as a bacterium, virus, or parasite, that causes disease. In the script, the term is used to describe the focus of risk assessments, where the Secure Food Systems team evaluates the potential for specific pathogens, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) or African swine fever (ASF), to infect and spread among animals.

💡Risk Management

Risk management is the process of identifying, evaluating, and implementing measures to reduce or control the impact of potential risks. In the video, Mickey Leonard discusses how risk management involves taking the findings from risk assessments and putting mitigations in place to reduce the likelihood of disease spread and its consequences in the agricultural industry.

💡Mitigations

Mitigations are actions or measures taken to reduce the likelihood or impact of a risk. In the context of the video, mitigations are implemented as part of risk management strategies to prevent or control the spread of diseases in the swine and poultry industries. Examples given in the script include pre-movement isolation periods and PCR surveillance.

💡Pre-movement Isolation Period

A pre-movement isolation period is a critical biosecurity measure discussed in the video. It is a time period before a permitted movement where biosecurity measures are intensified to minimize the likelihood of a premises being exposed to a pathogen. This includes restrictions on the movement of animals and people, as well as enhanced biosecurity protocols for those who do enter the premises.

💡Risk Communication

Risk communication is the process of sharing information about risks with stakeholders, including industry representatives and regulators. In the video, Mickey Leonard emphasizes the importance of risk communication in ensuring that all parties understand the risk assessment process, the findings, and the mitigation measures that have been put in place.

💡Acceptable Risk

Acceptable risk refers to the level of risk that is considered tolerable or appropriate by stakeholders, including regulatory bodies and the industry. In the video, Mickey Leonard discusses the concept of acceptable risk, noting that it varies depending on the context and must be determined on a case-by-case basis through collaboration and consideration of various factors, including scientific evidence and personal experiences.

Highlights

Mickey Leonard, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, discusses risk assessments for the swine and poultry industries.

Risk is defined by the World Organization for Animal Health as the likelihood and magnitude of consequences of an adverse event.

Risk assessments consider the likelihood of infection and spread of foreign animal diseases in farms.

The Secure Food Systems team works closely with stakeholders, including federal and state regulators and industry representatives.

Risk assessments are both qualitative and quantitative, evaluating the probability of transmission and detection of viruses.

The risk analysis framework includes hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.

Mickey explains the equation for risk involving the likelihood of moving infected animals and the consequences of such movement.

Risk can vary depending on the type of movement and individual farm circumstances.

Pre-movement isolation periods are critical for minimizing the likelihood of exposure to a pathogen.

Risk management involves creating mitigations based on scientific principles and considering their feasibility.

Acceptable risk is determined on a case-by-case basis through collaboration between regulatory bodies and the industry.

The presentation includes a practical example of calculating the risk of tripping while leaving the podium.

Mickey discusses the importance of balancing personal experiences with empirical data in risk assessments.

Risk communication is key, especially when dealing with different risk appetites and perceptions among stakeholders.

The Secure Food Systems team provides support for risk assessments, including creating permit guidances for easier implementation.

Remote work is the primary method for conducting risk assessments, though on-site visits are also conducted when possible.

The importance of layered mitigations in risk management, akin to the Swiss cheese model, is highlighted to enhance protection.

Transcripts

um with that in mind we've got three

speakers today our first speaker is

Mickey Leonard Mickey Leonard is a

researcher for our secure fruit systems

team at the University of Minnesota she

works with a team to produce our risk

assessments um for all species and these

are for continuity of business movements

for the swine and poultry Industries we

also work with the um aquatic industry

as well prior to joining the secure Food

Systems team Mickey worked at the

University of Minnesota's laboratory and

and that's where she found her interest

in Animal Health and Welfare and that's

where I stole her

away and brought her to our team so

without any further Ado um we have a

progressive set of talks we're going to

talk about risk then we're talk about

how risk assessment and then we're going

to talk about um a pathway analysis um

all um dealing with the swine industry

because we're at the Layman wine

conference take it away Mickey thanks

Marie all right so as Marie said I'm

Mickey Leonard and I will be talking to

you about what is acceptable risk so

let's just start off with what is risk

uh the world an World Organization for

Animal Health defines risk as the

likelihood of the occurrence and the

likely magnitude of the biological and

economic consequences of an adverse

event or effect to animal or human

health so that's just a lot of words to

say that you know you're going to figure

out how likely something is going to

happen and then what's going to happen

because that event occurred um and so

when we're talking about uh swine and

foreign animal diseases we're concerned

about what's the likelihood that a farm

might be infected and then with the

secure Food Systems team our risk

assessments that we conduct um we then

are also looking at whether or not that

spread might occur and that could be to

the farm or location that a an animal or

Animal product is moving to or we're

also concerned about the risk of move of

spread to other susceptible species so

other Farms that are in the area or

along the Route um and as Marie was

saying before we are facilitating

agricultural continuity of business uh

with our risk assessments and that's why

we we do this these are science-based so

we're really looking at the way that

these very specific pathogens um react

and move um and they're also

collaboratively created we work very

closely with stakeholders and so we have

federal and state uh Regulators that are

on our teams we also have veterinarians

and other industry Representatives uh

Allied Industries as well anyone who has

some stake in this movement and this

industry we appreciate being on our team

so we fully understand what the full

risk is and then our risk assessment are

both qualitative and quantitative so I

don't speak as much about the

quantitative part today but when we're

thinking about quantitative we're

looking at that risk of actual

transmission within a barn that

probability of detecting a virus that is

in the farm before movement um and then

also if you can detect the virus after

movement to understand if maybe virus

was introduced during load out or at

another point in the

process so

waa has this risk analysis framework

that we also work on and so you start

off with your hazard identification so

you think about what is the pathogen

that I'm concerned about and so with

swine we've looked at fmd we're now

working on one with ASF and you really

need to understand what those uh

Concepts and the way that that virus is

and works uh from there we go into the

risk assessment and so that's the

evaluation of the like likelihood and

the biological and economic consequences

of Entry establishment and spread of

that pathogen within a given region so

again thinking about moving from Farm a

to farm b or Farm a to slaughter

something like that uh you're thinking

about what might happen if that were to

occur uh risk management is then taking

what you've just thought about with that

risk assessment what you've just learned

and then putting mitigations in place so

that way you can Implement these

measures that can potentially reduce the

level of risk and then finally bringing

it all together you have risk

communication so that's communication

with your

stakeholders um communication just with

the industry with Regulators making sure

that there is open communication

understanding you know what risk was

what are the different things that went

into this analysis

um what are the different perceptions

among risk assessors uh the risk

managers these different things and

making sure that everyone understands

what it is that occurred during this

risk

analysis and so risk can be uh defined

by an equation so the risk of in our

case moving infected but undetected

animals or animal products is going to

be the likelihood of moving those

infected but undetected animals or

animal products times the consequence of

moving that uninfected animal uninfected

but undetected animal or Animal product

and so you know again that likelihood

the chance that your hazard ha hazardous

event can occur and the consequence is

that potential result of the Hazardous

event occurring and so with the

consequence you need to remember that

there are direct results so spread

spreading a pathogen but then there are

also going to be indirect consequences

as well um thinking about financial

implications things that are going to

affect the industry that sort of thing

and situations are going to be different

so when you think about the different

types of movements that could be

occurring those are going to come up

with different risks but even within the

same type of movement it's going to vary

on a farm byarm basis because as you all

know Farms are not going to the same

across the industry so you are going to

be assessing it very individually um and

depending on the circumstances of each

event your likelihood may be weighted

higher than your consequence or your

consequence may be weighted higher than

your likelihood so they're not going to

go into that with that exact same effect

on the

risk and so risk can be impacted and it

can be impacted by things that we do um

or it could just be impacted because of

the way that things are so if you were

to have a farm that is in a very high

density area your likelihood of being

exposed and having that infection is

likely going to increase which could

then result in Risk

increasing uh but you could also have

things that affect the consequence and

that could decrease which would also

then reduce the risk but you can really

have any combination of increase or

decrease in both likelihood and

consequence as well as of course the

risk and when you think about how to

come up with this overall risk

determination uh what we do is we

qualitatively combine the likelihoods of

individual Pathways assuming that all

applicable preventative measures are in

place so for example the the

pre-movement isolation period which I

will explain in just a second but when

you think about how risk occurs and

thinking about the overall movement

you're going to think about ways that a

virus could enter into a farm so those

are going to be your input Pathways and

when you're thinking about these

Pathways you're not going to have again

all of them be the same sort of weight

some of these are going to affect your

risk and your likelihood a lot more

heavily than the others are so that's

always something you need to consider

when going through a risk assessment but

we start with our input Pathways and

then we put in place different

mitigations so um start with this

pre-movement isolation period and then

also add on some PCR surveillance to

help bring down and mitigate that risk

from there you might have more uh inputs

though and more risk coming in or um

regarding spread so then you have load

out and and transport Pathways where

again you could have virus introduced

into a farm and also start to think

about the risk of spreading that virus

but we put in place even more

mitigations to hopefully bring down that

overall risk and you know depending the

overall risk is going to vary in

different sizes and it might not just be

one specific risk there may be a range

because there's a lot of

uncertainty um but that's the general

idea of how we get to an overall risk

for a

movement so that pre-movement isolation

period that I was just talking about is

a critical biocurity component of the

process and really it's a time period of

greatly intensifi intensified biocurity

for the entire premises prior to a

permitted movement and so some examples

are of that are no movement of live or

dead animals onto or off of the premises

in this amount of time um only have

critical operational visits coming onto

the premises during this this time

you'll also have manure and garbage not

being removed from the premises and then

you're also going to be looking at a lot

of enhanced bios security measures for

people and

vehicles and so why is the pmip so

critical well you have these

requirements that are going to minimize

the likelihood of a premises being

exposed to a pathogen in the first place

and then you're going to also have it

increase the likelihood of detection of

an infected premises because if you have

more time for that virus to be on a farm

you're going to be able to have a higher

likelihood of detecting it which will

then decrease that likelihood of moving

infected but undetected animals or

animal

products and again you need to think

about these potential unintended

consequences as well so you may have

animal public public and Environmental

Health and Welfare options that are

happening um the economic state of

things again these are just different

unintended consequences so you really

have to think about the whole picture as

it could potentially turn into this sort

of domino

effect now when we talk about risk we

have these specific risk ratings so at

the very severe end of things we have

extremely high which is this event is

basically it's almost certainly going to

occur and if it does these are going to

be really severe or catastrophic results

and then you have high moderate and

you're kind of ticking down the

likelihood and also ticking down that

consequence and then you get down to

negligible at the very other end of the

spectrum where it's really um it's

insignificant that if this event would

occur because of results or it's just

really unlikely that it's going to occur

and it's not really worth considering so

these are the risk ratings that we use

in our

analyses and another way to kind of look

at that and remember or think about how

likelihood and consequence come together

you can look at how you have these

different uh levels and also um for the

likelihood and the consequence and how

they can come together to come up with

an overall risk

rating now talked a lot about kind of

these different components and what they

mean so let's move through a potential

example of how to calculate risk and so

I'm going to step away from the

agricultural side of things just for a

second for ease of talking through this

and so let's consider what the risk of

me tripping while leaving the podium

after this talk is going to be so let's

start with the

likelihood I know myself I feel pretty

confident that I know how to walk and

I've got good balance today but but

that's possible so I'm going to call it

low to moderate there's that uncertainty

that I was talking about before where

you're going to have a range of

possibilities of what could occur now

let's think about the consequence you

know it could be a little trip and the

only thing that happens is I have a

little hurt ego or I could really biffet

and hurt myself physically so I'm going

to call that low to high because I'm not

really sure what could happen there is a

lot of uncertainty so when I think about

the overall risk we weighing these

different likelihoods and consequences I

think it's going to be a moderate risk

it's pretty unlikely but it could occur

and you know the

consequences have a range of what could

happen so we've got a moderate risk and

we'll see what happens at the end of my

talk how well I

do now moving into the risk management

side of things these are going to be

like I was talking about before those

mitigations that are going to help

reduce reduce your risk so after you

have your risk analysis done and you

have identified what those risks are

we're going to use scientific principles

to create these mitigations and you may

have National or International

mitigations considered so things that

are um already out there we don't need

to reinvent the wheel we can borrow what

other people are doing and we found out

that that can be a really useful thing

cuz some people are like oh that's a

good idea that's one great thing about

our work groups as we get to learn these

sorts of things another important thing

with risk management is making sure that

these me these measures are feasible we

want to make sure that Farms are going

to be able to do them especially when

you have these greatly enhanced

biocurity measures you can't just change

everything about your farm and the way

that things are running at the drop of a

dime so you just really need to think

about what could we re reasonably put in

place and again this is going to involve

stakeholders so that you can understand

and determine whether or not these are

going to be feasible measures and really

how effective they are and when we're

thinking about acceptable risk the

selected mitigations must result in some

appropriate level of protection you want

to make sure that you're putting forth

mitigations that are going to reduce

that

risk and so what are some examples of

risk management

on a larger scale you have good

agricultural practices good

manufacturing practices standard

operating procedures and also the

enhanced targeted surveillance that

you're going to be putting in place and

looking even specifically for some real

life examples um having Danish entries

or having something that has perceived

higher uh protection such as a shower in

shower out facility and you also want to

ensure that these procedures are being

followed uh you know another example is

having required uh dedicated PPE for

farm and barn level entry and you know

thinking about the other side of things

not just what you can do at the first

Farm but what your destination premises

is if you're moving animals to a single

age Farm if you have that opportunity

you're not going to be potentially

spreading disease to those other animals

that are already on the farm so you do

have a slightly lower consequence in

those

regards now maximizing that risk

management you can layer these different

mitigations and you can have this

enhanced protection you know each

additional mitigation can help manage

that risk but you do need to think about

the fact that not all M mitigations are

going to measure risk

equally um and so an example of this is

thinking of how we measure these

different levels

so you're going to see some tables very

similar when Caitlyn gives her talk in

just a minute but if we start off with

our Indo industry biocurity standards

you know maybe you have something that

has low to moderate

likelihood and then you're going to

layer on whatever your secure Supply

plan so in our our case secure pork

Supply um what their enhanced biocurity

recommendations are and from there you

might be able to lower that likelihood

down to

low and then on top of those two already

good um biocurity measures you could add

on that targeted enhanced biocurity

measures that um we've been talking

about things that are developed with the

stakeholders and that could bring you

down even lower potentially so you're

going to want to think about what these

layered mitigations could be and another

way to think about that as we've all

seen with covid kind of the Swiss cheese

approach where you know if you just have

one piece of Swiss cheese you're going

to have a higher likelihood but then

once you start layering on more it's

possible that you're going to get more

protected by the end of

this now thinking about minimizing risk

you're never going to be able to achieve

zero risk but you can reduce it to

acceptable Le levels so again assess

those potential hazards Implement

mitigations to reduce likelihood and

when possible consider changes to reduce

consequences now finally getting back to

the big question what is acceptable risk

I've talked to you about what risk is

ways that we can help management know

what's acceptable risk and unfortunately

I don't just have a single answer for

you it's going to be very um it's going

to veryy B by case so again depending on

what kind of movement you're doing um

what kind of farms you have the

different types of animals it's going to

vary greatly so you do need to assess it

on a case-by casee basis this is going

to be a collaboration between regulatory

bodies and industry it's a nice way

again to have those two pieces working

together certain measures that are going

to be um put in place for determining

whether or not risk is acceptable are

going to be polic

and so they're regulated Again by those

state and federal agencies but then you

have these other additional measures

that maybe not all Farms can put in

place but you could specifically put in

place that would help lower your own

personal

risk and really just kind of the bottom

line is you want to think about what

level of risk are you willing to allow

what are you going to feel comfortable

with and again that's that discussion

with the regular atory bodies when

you're trying to decide whether or not a

movement can occur and whether or not

you should attempt it and so with that

I'd like to thank the rest of the secure

Food Systems team um we all work

together on creating these risk

assessments and our modelers do a lot of

really great modeling to give that

quantitative view that again I didn't

touch on today but they do a lot of

really good work um and we also of

course couldn't do this without funding

and support from from our partners usdaa

USDA USDA Nea afre USDA apas fad prep

the state of Minnesota and other a

industry groups and so with that I would

like to open the floor to any

questions thank

Mickey and then we've got uh two

microphones one on this end one on that

end on this um interre Talk setting the

stage for what is um appropriate risk

any questions um from the audience

going once going twice going three times

no we can take our

time for

that presenter that nobody has any

questions everything is completely

completely solid in their

minds no I of course I have a question

for you um um Mickey is um we're getting

at um um the risk discussion and I think

you put it up there about um that the

the science has to be there as well to

inform that and so how do you balance um

when you're um when you're getting at

acceptable risk um balance personal

experiences the empirical data like once

I found I saw this you know versus the

published data how do you balance that

out there with a a diverse work group

and especially if we think of of of the

poultry side that you've worked a lot

with um you know um in and then and any

of the work groups how do you balance

that yeah absolutely so you are going to

have these different experiences that

people will have and so one thing you

think about is how representative is

this of your risk assessment and farms

in general um so that's one thing you

think about making

sure

represent Farm or body um but you also

want to make sure that there is that

evidence supporting these different

thoughts um you know if there's more

evidence kind of against one argument

than there is for it that's something

that you want to consider but then we

also have these workg groups that are

made up of you know a lot of different

experiences and people and experts and

they're also able to put forth their

thoughts onto things so whether or not

um other people have experienced this as

well is something that we can also take

into consideration when we're doing

these risk assessments and coming up

with final risk risk

determinations and I guess the any other

questions from the audience because I

could have one more you have one go

ahead you have one oh you

you um no thank you very much for a

great presentation um my question is a

bit further down the line that sometimes

you get um once you once you're done

with this stage you need to communicate

that risk and then you have people with

different risk appetite and perception

and I was just wondering how you've

navigated that space um given the

different uh projects that you've had to

work with sure yeah so there's

a a lot

of where these are some of the results

for this very specific risk assessment

we're doing and so what we're going to

do is talk about that specifically but

then we also will layer it where we have

worked very closely with individual

farms and also with individual um state

federal Regulators to kind of help work

through that on a caseby casee basis um

so that's another thing where our team

is there for those Outreach

opportunities where we like to be able

to provide the support since we're very

familiar with it and our risk

assessments are pretty lengthy you know

close to about 200 pages so uh there's a

lot to sift through there and we also

create these permit guidances which is

just kind of condensed information

really pulling out those important

pieces that you can Implement um and

that's just another way that we're able

to share the information a little bit

more of an understandable

way thanks John coren has a question

sure you

do

so it is a

mitig because what you're G

is bread

um

know all right if I just hold it and

hope for the best at this point but um

yeah so in a way where we're thinking

about reducing that spread of disease so

even though you would unfortunately be

detecting that disease um and you're not

getting a benefit out of it at that

point you are able to at least try and

stop it before it gets too bad and

you're also thinking about that viral

load where you know at least maybe

you're not going to be spewing out a lot

of virus into the environment or um you

know just these other considerations

that you're not going to have to be you

know you should be concerned of course

but maybe not as concerned when you're

doing clean like that if you're going to

be having those um smaller viral loads

by catching it when you only have one

boore perhaps versus having 10 bores

that are

positive one last question um it's a

quick question so do you do your risk

assessments at the farm or do you do

them remotely and if you do them

remotely what drove that decision so we

do them remotely but if we do have the

chance to be able to go to Farms um i'

certainly never say no um there's been a

couple of times where we've been able to

go out to farms and talk with people um

and that's really great but for the most

part we just do um remote Zoom work

group thingss where we just kind of walk

through what these pathways are so we

really think about the entire process of

everything that's going on for a

movement Seaman for

Bo's talking about we really think about

the different steps going into this

whole process we work with our

stakeholders and our industry

representatives to tell us what going on

and then we're also being able to

conduct a literature um review at the

same time to kind of put both of those

pieces together and from there we just

try and come up with a way to be the

most representative that we can but then

if you do have a farm that were to you

know really want that additional help

really understand their personal risk um

that's something that probably would be

better done on an IND individual Farm um

we are able to talk about their

individual experiences but then at the

same time you have those Regulators who

are going to be out at the farm too so

they might be able to help you out in

that regard