Nvidia has 3-5 years of AI dominance, analyst says
Summary
TLDRNvidiaの株価は1年で3倍に増加し、AIブームが投資家から支持されています。Deepwater Asset ManagementのDoug Clinton氏は、AI市場の成長が持続可能であり、まだ初期段階にあり、AIバブルが形成されるまで不安を感じる必要はないと考えています。Nvidiaは株式分割を実施し、ビジネスモメンタムを維持していますが、AI分野でのシェアを維持し、他のハイパースケーラとの競争に勝つことが重要です。AI技術のブームは常に期待を超える収益を生み出し、Nvidiaのチップの需要は膨大です。
Takeaways
- 📈 Nvidiaの株価は約1年間で3倍に増加し、その成長が持続可能であると見なされています。
- 🤔 AIブームへの投資家への報酬が持続するかどうかは疑問視されていますが、現在はAI市場の早い段階にあるとされています。
- 🏠 Deepwater Asset Managementの共同経営者であるDoug Clintonは、AIブームがまだ終わっていないと語りました。
- 📊 Nvidiaは株式分割を実施し、市場への期待と興奮を高める要因となっています。
- 💡 Nvidiaはビジネスモメンタムを維持しており、チップの需要が減少するという懸念はまだ現実にはならずにあります。
- 🌐 NvidiaはAI分野における加速計算市場シェアの80~90%を有しており、そのシェアを維持する必要があるとされています。
- 🔮 AI企業がモデルを構築し、それらを収益化することができるかどうかは未解決の質問です。
- 🛠️ Nvidiaは今後3~5年間はAIモデルの「脳」を提供する企業としてその地位を維持できると予想されています。
- 💼 銀行のグローバルテックカンファレンスでの議論では、他のプレイヤーが現れるにつれて市場は現実を見直す必要があるとされています。
- 📉 テクノロジードリブンのブームには日々の変動があり、投資家は収益化までの期間について再評価する可能性があるとされています。
- 🌟 NvidiaのCEOは、企業のチップへの需要が非常に強いと語り、データセンターでのGPUの活用が求められていると強調しました。
- 🔢 データセンターにおけるチップの需要は膨大であり、多くのハイパースケーラや主権国家、産業界がAIを活用する中で、チップの需要は数百数千枚にのぼると予想されています。
Q & A
Nvidiaの株価が1年で3倍になった背景には何があると思われますか?
-AI技術の急速な発展とそれに伴う需要の高まりが背景にあります。特に、NvidiaはAI分野における強力なプレイヤーとして位置づけられており、その成長が市場に期待されています。
AIブームが持続可能かどうか、どのような指標を見れば良いでしょうか?
-AIブームが持続可能かどうかは、AI技術の進歩やそれに伴うビジネスモデルの収益化、さらには市場での需要の継続性を見極めることが必要です。
Nvidiaの株価のホッケースティックチャートはなぜ恐ろしいと感じられるのでしょうか?
-ホッケースティックチャートは急激な成長を示しており、投資家にとってはその持続可能性やリスクの高さが懸念されるためです。
AIブームのどの段階にあると思いますか?
-現在、AIブームは3〜4のインニングにあって、まだ早期段階にあり、AIバブルが形成されるまでの途中だと考えられています。
Nvidiaの株式分割はどのような影響を与えると予想されますか?
-株式分割は一時的な株価の上昇に寄与するかもしれませんが、長期的なビジネスモメンタムや市場での地位に比べて、それほど大きな影響は与えないでしょう。
NvidiaがAI分野で維持する必要のある市場シェアはどれくらいでしょうか?
-Nvidiaは現在、AI分野のアクセラレートコンピューティング市場で80〜90%の市場シェアを有しており、このシェアを維持することが今後の成長にとって重要です。
AI技術がビジネス収益を上げるにはどのくらいの時間がかかると思いますか?
-AI技術がビジネス収益を上げるには、投資家が期待するよりも長い時間がかかるかもしれませんが、最終的には大きな収益を生み出すことができるでしょう。
NvidiaのCEOはデータセンターのチップ需要についてどのように述べていますか?
-NvidiaのCEOは、データセンターでのチップの需要が非常に強いと述べており、人々がこれらのGPUをすぐに稼働させ、金钱を稼ぐために熱心です。
AI技術の進歩によりデータセンターのチップ需要はどのように変化すると思いますか?
-AI技術の進歩により、データセンターでのチップ需要は増加し続けるでしょう。特に、ハイパースケーラ企業や主権国家、産業界がAIを活用する中で、チップの需要は数十万から数百万にのぼる可能性があります。
Nvidiaが今後3〜5年で維持できる市場地位についてどう思われますか?
-Nvidiaは今後3〜5年でもAIモデルの「脳」を提供する企業としてその地位を維持できると考えられていますが、他のハイパースケーラ企業による競争にも注意が必要です。
AI関連企業の株価が現実的な評価から遠ざかっていると思いますか?
-一部のAI関連企業では、現在の評価が現実的な価値から遠ざかっている可能性があります。しかし、技術革新が進展し、収益性が高まれば、その評価は合理化されるでしょう。
Outlines
📈 AIブームの持続可能性と株分割の影響
Nvidiaの株価が1年で3倍に増加し、AIブームが持続するかどうかが議論されています。Deepwater Asset ManagementのDoug Clintonは、AI市場はまだ初期段階で、AIバブルが形成されるまで成長が続くと見ています。また、Nvidiaの株分割が近々行われることについても触れていますが、これは一時的な株価上昇に過ぎないと見ています。重要なのは、Nvidiaがビジネスの勢いを維持し、AI分野での需要が減少する兆しを見せていないことです。NvidiaはAI市場でのシェアを維持し、将来もAIモデルの中心となる企業になる可能性があるとClintonは述べています。
💡 Nvidiaのチップ需要とデータセンターの拡大
Nvidia CEOのJensen Huangは、企業のチップ需要について語り、Blackwellの発表後、需要が高まっていることを示唆しています。データセンターにおいて、NvidiaのGPUを活用して現金化やコスト削減を図る動きが強まっています。Deepwaterが最近投資したXaiの例では、Elon MuskがNvidiaのハイエンドAIアクセラレータチップ100,000個必要としており、これは単一の顧客からの数十億ドルのCAPEXです。データセンターや超スケーラ企業、さらには主権国家や業界全体におけるAIの適用を考えると、チップの需要は数百数千もの規模に達する可能性があります。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Nvidia
💡AIブーム
💡株式分割
💡市場シェア
💡加算コンピュート
💡ハイパースケーラ
💡収益化
💡技術的ブーム
💡データセンター
💡AIチップの需要
Highlights
Nvidia's value has tripled in about a year.
Growth of Nvidia is considered sustainable by Doug Clinton.
AI bull market is in its early stages, possibly leading to an AI bubble.
Investors should worry when they stop worrying about the market being over.
Nvidia's stock split is effective after the end of the trading day tomorrow.
Stock split may cause a brief blip or bump to the upside.
Nvidia's business momentum is the most exciting part of the story.
Demand for chips has not slowed down as expected.
Nvidia is seen as the de facto AI play in the market.
Nvidia's market share for accelerated compute chips is 80 to 90%.
AI companies need to generate revenue to justify their investments.
Nvidia is expected to maintain its dominant position for the next 3 to 5 years.
Hyperscalers building their own chips pose competition to Nvidia.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discusses strong demand for the company's chips.
Data centers are eager to deploy Nvidia's GPUs for immediate benefits.
Demand for chips in data centers could scale into the millions.
Transcripts
so let's keep on with it here with
Nvidia this morning as the company has
tripled in value in about a year is this
growth sustainable as investors continue
to reward the AI hype here with more
we've got Doug Clinton Deepwater Asset
Management managing partner here all
right so let's start there is it
sustainable I think it is sustainable
and you know it always sounds smart to
ask the question you know when will this
be over you look at the hockey stick
that you just described Brad it feels a
little scary it looks a little scary on
the chart but I think the reality is
this we are in inning three or four of
this AI bull market I think that we are
still early as uncomfortable as that
sounds and maybe feels but I think it's
going to feel uncomfortable all the way
until we get to eventually being in a
true AI bubble which we think is kind of
the culmination of this bull market and
then people will stop talking about
valuation altogether so that that's the
odd sort of counterintuitive reality is
we're worried right now that things
might be over it's probably not over
when we stop worrying that's when you
should start worrying and also dou just
taking a step back we also have this
stock split that's going to take place
or be effective um after the end of the
trading day tomorrow I guess we just
talk about some of that near-term
excitement that buildup that we've seen
within AI how big of a driver do you see
that it's probably just going to be a
very brief blip or move bump to the
upside but how big of a driver do you
see that in terms of just the narrative
and excitement surrounding
AI I think the stock split for in video
as you said Sean I think that will just
be kind of a blip here obviously that
gets certain people excited mentally you
see a lower stock price and people feel
like it may be cheaper even though it's
not I think the reality though with
Nvidia is they continue to show business
momentum I think that's really what is
the most exciting piece of the entire
story is that despite all of us worrying
that eventually this demand for chips
will slow down we haven't really seen
that slow down happen yet and it may
take longer to slow down than we think
that's kind of the the new opinion that
I think the street might think about and
so as we're thinking about what the
street is going to continue to rally on
the backup here I mean we just laid out
the entirety of the companies that are
really within this $3 trillion
conversation and for NVIDIA it's really
been the artificial intelligence demand
that they continue to site and how
people are essentially looking at them
as this de facto AI play what about the
market share that they need to retain in
order to continue to maintain this type
of sentiment in the
street I think that's the right question
going forward I mean right now from a
market share perspective they likely
have 80 to 90% of accelerated compute
market share market share for chips that
do power this AI Revolution and I think
going forward they probably need to
maintain share in that realm so the
question really is number one can AI
companies companies that are building
these models like Google like open AI
with their partnership with Microsoft
can they eventually generate Revenue
that makes this investment Justified
that's an outstanding question I think
they will it may take longer than
investors hope but I think they will the
second question to your point is can
Nvidia maintain its dominant position
providing the brains to these artificial
intelligence models and I think they can
for the next three to 5 years I do think
that we should pay attention to all of
the hyperscalers building their own s
there is going to be competition out
there but I still think at least for the
next three years Nvidia is going to be
the go-to
company I was just out at uh Bank of
America's Global Tech conference uh
earlier this week in San Francisco and I
was talking to some Executives the nck
as CEO reie ramaswami was one of them we
ALS I was also speaking with the founder
of Pure Storage and they've raised that
issue that you were just bringing up
right just in terms of how realistic
maybe these timelines are until we see
some real return when it comes to some
of those secondary players I'm curious
of you think that the market almost
needs a reality check at this point and
maybe the excitement in some of these
plays maybe not Nvidia and certainly
doesn't seem like Nvidia but when we
talk about some of those secondary plays
has it gotten a little ahead of itself
at this
point I think it depends on your
timeline and I when you look at sort of
these technologically driven booms
they're never purely up and to the right
when you zoom out they always look like
they are but when you live through it
day to day and week to week there are
pullbacks I mean even in viia had a 20%
pullback earlier this year that's
painful if you bought the stock at the
top and so I wouldn't be surprised if we
do see some of those right sizings
temporary right sizings you know in the
next 3 six months as investors do think
about how do revenues ultimately
translate and I think the story with
emerging technology is often the same
which is it usually does take a little
bit longer than everybody hopes to
generate meaningful Revenue but once
that Revenue comes it's often bigger
than people even imagine I think that's
probably going to be the case for AI too
just why we have you here Nvidia CEO
Jensen Wong talked about demand for the
company's chips in an exclusive
interview with yo Finance this came
after the company's first quarter
results last month want to play for you
a clip of what he had to say copper
demand grew throughout this
quarter after we announced
Blackwell and so that kind of tells you
how much demand there is out there
people want to deploy these data centers
right now they want to put our gpus to
work right now and start making money
and start saving money and so so that
that demand is just so strong do you
have an assessment of Within These data
centers the makeup or the total number
of chips that we could even potentially
see some of these data centers grow out
to as we're looking for even more demand
that is going to be needed well not
needed but even more that is going to be
asked of the chips within the data
centers because of gener of
AI it's a big number and the reality is
you can you can look at several data
points I mean xai for example a company
that deep water actually just invested
in recently Elon Musk has talked about
needing a 100,000 of nvidia's topend AI
accelerator chips uh to build the
supercomputer that they want to build
that's three to four billion dollars of
capex there from a single customer and
obviously that's just one data center
that's one supercomputer they will
continue to build more infrastructure
over time um and I think you can look at
the same thing for many of the other
hyperscalers we're talking about
hundreds of thousands of chips that are
needed there and maybe even if you
expand out you look at Sovereign Nations
that are looking at AI you look at
industry that are thinking about how to
apply AI the demand for the chips could
scale into the Millions
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