Former US negotiator: ‘Netanyahu is the worst possible leader, at the worst possible time’ | DW News
Summary
TLDRイスラエルとハマスの間で起こるガザでの紛争に関するビデオスクリプトを要約します。アメリカ大統領ジョー・バイデンは恒久的な停戦とハマスに拘束された人質の返還を提案しました。テロリスト集団であるハマスはこの提案に肯定的反応を示しましたが、イスラエルは軍事目標達成を賭けて戦争を継続すると述べています。この提案が実現されるかどうかは、イスラエル政府とハマスの意思決定者による緊張と協議次第です。また、この紛争はガザの市民に多大な被害をもたらしており、人道的な理由から停戦が求められています。
Takeaways
- 🕊️ イスラエルはガザでの戦争を全ての目標達成まで続ける予定としており、平和への期待を薄らせる。
- 🇺🇸 アメリカ大統領ジョー・バイデンは恒久的な停戦とハマスによる人質の返還を求める提案を提示。
- 📢 テルアビブでは政府による停戦の受け入れを求める群衆が集まり、人質家族は彼らの愛する人を解放するためにもっと行動を求める。
- 🤝 ハマスは停戦提案に肯定的な対応を示し、バイデンは戦争を終わらせることを逃すのは誤りだと述べる。
- 💡 アラン・デイビッド・ミラーはイスラエルとパレスチナの紛争に関する専門家であり、多くのアメリカ国務長官の顧問を務めていた。
- 🏛️ イスラエル政府は提案を内閣全体に持ち上げるかどうかが問題で、ハマスは迅速な包括的な返答に興味を持たない。
- 🔍 ハマスはイスラエルからの圧力が高まるにつれて時間と人質を取引に使い、彼らの指導力とハマスの継続を図る。
- 🚫 イスラエルの戦時内閣は提案に賛同していないかもしれないと示唆されており、ネタニヤフ首相は自らの権力維持を主目的としている。
- 🏫 スルタン・バラカトは公共政策の教授で、紛争管理の専門家でドゥハイ研究所の紛争と人道研究センターの創設者。
- 🔑 バイデンの提案は妥協点を提供しており、ハマスが10日前にも受け入れたことには大きな相違がないと評価されている。
- 🏡 ハマスは停戦、イスラエルからの撤退、再建のコミットメント、パレスチナ人拘禁者の交換を主張している。
- 🚨 ハマスはイスラエルがバイデンの提案をどの程度実行するのか疑問に思っているが、彼らは非常に限られた交渉材料を持っている。
- 🌐 イスラエルは国際的支持を失い、国際評判も失っていると指摘されており、ICCはネタニヤフとガントに対して逮捕状を要求している。
- 📉 オリバー・マクターンは紛争調停者として、バイデンの提案が新しいものではないが、計画を提示することは良いと述べている。
- 🔄 アメリカはイスラエル内閣に対して影響力を持つ唯一の国であり、彼らが戦争を終えたいと真剣に考えているなら、彼らに交渉を進める必要がある。
- 🚫 ネタニヤフは交渉にハマスの軍事的排除が必要と述べており、これはバイデンの提案にはなかった。
- 🤔 オリバーは停戦が達成される可能性について懐疑的であり、人道的な理由から両側が停戦に同意するかもしれないと期待している。
Q & A
イスラエルがガザでの戦争を継続する目的は何ですか?
-イスラエルは、ガザでの戦争を継続してすべての目標を達成するまで戦いを続ける予定です。
ジョー・バイデン大統領はどのような停戦提案を提示しましたか?
-ジョー・バイデン大統領は、恒久的な停戦とハマスによって拘束されている人質の返還を求める提案を提示しました。
テルアビブでの集会は何を求めていましたか?
-テルアビブでの集会は、政府が停戦を受け入れるよう促すことを求めていました。
ハマスは停戦提案にどのように反応しましたか?
-ハマスは停戦提案に肯定的に反応しました。
アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは提案についての見解は何ですか?
-アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは、提案は良い計画であると評価していますが、問題はテキストの内容ではなく、現在の指導層がそれを受け入れるかどうかということにあります。
ハマスはなぜ迅速に包括的な対応を求めていませんか?
-ハマスはイスラエルがアメリカと国際社会からの圧力を受けていると計算しており、彼らにとって重要なのはリーダーシップの維持とハマスの継続です。
スルタン・バラカト教授は提案についてどのように考えていますか?
-スルタン・バラカト教授は、提案が現在の状況下では衝突を終わらせ、両側が妥協点を探す唯一の希望であると評価しています。
ハマスが提案を受け入れる可能性はどのくらいですか?
-ハマスは恒久的な停戦、イスラエルからの撤退、再建へのコミットメント、およびイスラエル人質とパレスチナ人囚人の交換など、彼らが求めていた要素が提案に含まれているため、提案を受け入れる可能性があります。
オリバー・マクターンはバイデンの提案についてどう言っていますか?
-オリバー・マクターンは、提案が新しいものではないと指摘し、しかし、計画を提示することは良いとしていますが、アメリカがその言葉を支持する準備があるかどうかが問題だと言っています。
ネタニヤフ首相はどのような条件で取引を結ぶと述べていますか?
-ネタニヤフ首相は、取引を結ぶにはハマスの軍事的排除を含める必要があると述べていますが、これはバイデンが発表した提案には含まれていません。
オリバー・マクターンは停戦が実現する可能性についてどう考えていますか?
-オリバー・マクターンは、ガザの住民が耐え難い状況を経験していることから、人道的な理由から停戦が実現する可能性があると言っています。
Outlines
🕊️ バイデン大統領の停戦提案とイスラエルの対応
イスラエルはガザでの戦争を全目的達成するまで続けると表明し、平和への期待をくじいています。アメリカのバイデン大統領は恒久的な停戦とハマスによる人質の返還を求める提案を行いました。テルアビブでは停戦を求める集会が行われ、人質家族は政府にもっと積極的な措置を取るよう訴えています。ハマスは提案に肯定的反応を示しましたが、イスラエル政府は戦争を継続するとしています。専門家アロン・デイビッド・ミラーは、提案は段階的で現実的であると評価しつつも、その実行には問題があると指摘しています。特に、イスラエル政府の意思決定者であるナイツ・シニールと彼の戦争顧問委員会がこの提案を支持するかどうかが鍵となります。
🤔 ハマスとの停戦交渉とイスラエル内閣の分裂
イスラエルの戦争顧問委員会はバイデン大統領の提案に賛成していますが、ネトニヤフ首相はハマスの軍事的排除を目指しています。ガラント国防長官もハマスの排除を求めており、提案に反対する動きが見られます。ハマスは停戦と人質交換、ガザの復興、パレスチナ人囚人の釈放という主張を持ち続けていますが、イスラエルがこれらの条件に応じるかどうか懸念しています。国際社会からの圧力とイスラエルの国際的信望の低下がネトニヤフ首相の立場を弱めており、交渉の進展には多くの障害が存在します。
🏳️ バイデンの停戦提案の詳細と交渉の難しさ
バイデン大統領はガザでの戦争を終わらせるための段階的な提案を行いました。6週間の停戦期間を設け、イスラエル軍の撤退、人質の交換、人道支援の拡大などが提案されています。2次フェーズではハマスによる残りの人質の釈放、全般的なホスilitiesの終結、ガザからの完全な撤退が求められています。しかし、ネトニヤフ首相はハマスの軍事的排除を提案から外すと述べ、交渉が複雑化しています。オリバー・マクターナンは、アメリカがイスラエル閣議に影響を与え、停戦を実現する唯一の国であり、人道的緩和のために停戦が急務であると指摘しています。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡平和
💡停戦
💡ホスト
💡ハマス
💡イスラエル政府
💡国際社会
💡人道支援
💡再建
💡交渉
💡テロリスト組織
Highlights
Israel is pursuing the war in Gaza until it achieves all its aims.
US President Joe Biden presented a proposal for a permanent ceasefire and return of hostages held by Hamas.
Crowds in Tel Aviv urged the government to accept the truce following months of rallies by hostage families.
Hamas responded positively to Biden's truce proposal.
Aaron David Miller, an expert on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, provided insights on the proposal.
The proposal's phase two has many aspects that need to be negotiated and finalized.
The current leadership's approval of the proposal is uncertain.
Hamas is under increasing pressure from the US and the international community.
Hamas's calculation involves trading time, tunnels, and hostages for leadership preservation.
The proposal is considered increasingly fraudulent due to the lack of urgency from both sides.
Sultan Barakat, a professor for Public Policy, discussed the proposal's potential as a compromise.
The proposal is not far from what Hamas had accepted previously.
There is a potential split within Israel's war cabinet regarding the proposal.
Netanyahu and Galant are determined to see the end of Hamas before considering withdrawal.
Hamas views the deal positively, focusing on key issues such as ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, reconstruction, and prisoner exchange.
Hamas is suspicious of Israel's commitment to implementing the proposal's three phases.
Both Hamas and Israel have limited bargaining power, with Israel losing international allies and reputation.
President Biden's proposal includes a detailed two-phase plan for ceasefire, withdrawal, and reconstruction.
Conflict negotiator Oliver McIn suggests that Biden's announcement lacks a sense of urgency and needs stronger commitment.
Netanyahu's goals of eliminating Hamas and returning hostages are seen as incompatible with the proposal.
The challenge lies in moving from the first stage of the proposal to the second stage successfully.
The potential end of military operations could lead to Netanyahu's political downfall.
A ceasefire is urgently needed for humanitarian reasons in Gaza.
Transcripts
Israel has dampened hopes for peace in
Gaza saying it will pursue the war until
it has achieved all of its aims US
President Joe Biden has presented a
proposal for a permanent ceasefire and
the return of hostages held by Hamas
crowds turned out in Tel Aviv to urge
the government to accept the truce
following months of rallies by hostage
families demanding more actions to free
their loved ones Hamas has responded
positively to the truce proposal Biden
says it would be a mistake to pass up a
chance to end the
war let's bring in Aaron David Miller
now he's an expert on the Israeli
Palestinian conflict and served as an
adviser to several us secretaries of
State welcome to the program so I'd like
to start off by asking you and thank you
for joining us I'd like to start off by
asking you what your take on the
proposal is uh as it was laid out by
President
Biden I mean it's a fine plan it's
phased It's relatively realistic
although there's so much about phase two
that needs to be negotiated nailed down
problem is not the text of a 4 and a
half page agreement problem is whether
or not the current leaderships uh
principal decision maker yakis sinir on
one hand in the government of Israel on
the other the war cabinet has already
approved this the question is whether or
not if brought to the full
cabinet um the full cabinet will approve
it Hamas has no stake in
responding comprehensively
uh quickly I mean their calculation is
um Israel is under increasing pressure
from the US the International Community
hostage families senoir is trading Time
Tunnel and hostages for what he really
wants which is the preservation of his
leadership and the uh the continuation
of Hamas in some form uh in the politic
of post October 7 Gaza so right now I
think this proposal is increasingly
fraud because you don't hand the sense
of urgency on either side that matches
the Pres President Biden's let's talk a
little bit about that sense of urgency
if we could uh this proposal was
essentially laid out by Biden but he
said it was put forward by Israel
however Israeli leaders have walked that
back and say they will continue to
pursue their military AIMS in Gaza can
you make sense of that well the war
cabinet approved it it doesn't mean that
every cabinet minister
agreed uh and netan also has Al put out
several statements which raise some
questions
although I know one thing about
negotiations parties interpreted to
their respective publics uh as they want
um so I I I think again uh if Hamas
responds with a yes or a no or imposes
additional conditions uh there may be no
need for um the proposal to be brought
to the full cabinet
if if Hamas wants to play this game
tactically they would agree to this and
let the full cabinet the full Israeli
cabinet decide which could prove highly
embarrassing to the Prime Minister uh
whose concent majority rests with 65
seats and above all his his major
objective is to main maintain himself in
power that's part of the problem I have
no brief for Hamas a vicious terrorist
organization that killed in discre ently
raped and U murdered and tortured and
took hostages let's be very
clear Benjamin netan was the worst
possible
leader at the worst possible
time in the worst possible
circumstance and therein with respect to
both hamas's and Israel's motives in
this therein lies the
problem all right I'm afraid that's all
we have time for right now that was
Aaron David Miller thank you very much
for your anoun is thank
you now let's bring in Sultan Barakat
he's a professor for Public Policy an
expert on conflict management and the
founder of the center of for conflict
and humanitarian studies at the Doha
Institute welcome to DW what's your take
on this proposal is it a good
one well obviously it's a good one in
the sense that it is probably the only
hope we have at the moment to bring an
end into the conflict and to allow the
two sides to reach a reasonable uh
agreement it will never be it will never
meet the main objective of either side
but I think it provides a compromise and
it's interesting that if you look at the
details it's not really very far from
what Hamas has
accepted uh 10 days ago or so uh the
real problem remains on the side of
Israel and I think what's happening now
it seems like there is a split within
the war cabinet within Israel with Gans
Benny Gans may be taking the lead now
and I suspect what he what has been
proposed by Biden has largely been
worked by him and the head of the
Israeli intelligence because it is very
much against what Netanyahu would like
to see and what Galant would like to see
Netanyahu and Galant are still
determined to see the end of Hamas first
uh that the total Destruction of its
military capability and its Governor's
capability and for them that is total
Victory and then they're willing to talk
about uh potential withdrawal so what we
have at the moment I think it's it's
potentially could be a good a good start
it uh it really depends on how Israel
reacts to the
proposal um Hamas says it views the deal
positively why would Hamas take any deal
as long as Israel has a stated goal of
eliminating them
militarily well I mean what they've
taken from the deal are the key issues
the deal talks about a ceasefire
permanent ceasefire it is it is calling
for Israeli withdrawal although it's
talking about withdrawal from inhabited
areas and there aren't many inhabited
areas continue me liveable lived in
areas by the Palestinians in Gaza and it
is also talking about a commitment to
reconstruction and a commitment to
release Palestinian prisoners in
exchange for the Israeli hostages so
those elements have always been the
elements that Hamas uh has called for uh
obviously they will continue to be
suspicious of Israel and its reaction
and whether it will implement the three
phases as Biden uh forese them because
from The Experience so far they don't
seem to listen to what Biden say and
Biden is not able to
really Implement any of his threats he
has introduced a number of lines for
Israel over the last seven months all
those red lines were crossed and there
was no consequence so uh I think the
only worry on the mind of Hamas today
would be whether if they were to go into
this uh phased approach whether the
Israelis will go phase one phase two the
release of the hostages and then they
will have have a change of mind of heart
and go after them for the total
Destruction uh but at the moment uh both
sides really have very little to bargain
with uh Hamas as you you could see are
pushed right against the fence and the
Israelis day by day are losing their
International allies they're losing
their International reputation now it's
not only the icj after Israel the ICC
has called for the uh warrant by for
Netanyahu and Gant so they are really in
a very difficult position thank you very
much silan Barakat Professor for Public
Policy thanks for your analysis let's
take a look at the proposal in more
detail President Biden said that in a
first phase lasting six weeks Israel and
Hamas would enter a full and complete
ceasefire Israeli forces would withdraw
from populated areas of Gaza Hamas would
release a number of hostages including
the elderly women and the wounded in
exchange Israel would release hundreds
of Palestinian detainees humanitarian
aid for Gaza would surge at this point
with at least 600 trucks being allowed
into Gaza each day in the proposal's
second phase Hamas would release all
remaining living hostages including male
Israeli soldiers all hostilities would
end and Israeli forces would fully
withdraw from Gaza once these steps have
been accomplished Hamas would hand over
the remains of all dead hostages it
still holding Rubble in gaza's cities
would then be cleared and reconstruction
of the territory backed by the us Europe
and international institutions would
begin turn to conflict negotiator Oliver
mcin who joins us Oliver uh thanks for
your time there's a lot of detail in
what Biden announced as a conflict
negotiator do you think that was a good
idea well there's nothing new in what he
is saying is what they have done is
reordered the the timetable as where
now um I think it's good to have a an
overall plan if he had just announced
okay a 60-day ceasefire in which certain
hostages will be exchanged and then
we'll see what'll happen I think it
would be less appealing and we probably
wouldn't have got the positive response
we did from Hamas but at the end of the
day I think he needs to go further um
it's no good announcing it unless he is
prepared to really stand by his words
it's time to see the war in Gaza end it
um only America I think can actually
achieve that goal um because it's only
they that can have the real influence on
the Israeli um cabinet at present and
that is they Supply the means by which
America um Israel can prosecute the war
if they are serious about ending it then
they must tell them this this is the
time you have to make a deal and then
meanwhile you have Netanyahu saying that
any deal must include quote the
elimination of Hamas militarily that
wasn't in the proposal announced by
Biden so where do things stand what does
that mean for
negotiations well I say I would think
Min it complicates it unbelievably and I
think intentionally right from the
beginning Netanyahu set two goals first
the elimination of Hamas and alongside
that the return of the hostages now
those goals for anyone familiar with
hostage negotiation and achieving a
level of agreement that could um enable
this to happen is acutely aware that
these are incompatible and I see um in a
way Netanyahu um nodding the head to
Biden on the one hand but at the same
time saying to his support and those in
his cabinet and outside his cabinet
there's a real cross party consensus
that Hamas should be eliminated for the
future security of Israel he's he's
nodding to them as well so you know it
remains to be seen how this will
progress the Big Challenge I think is
moving from not getting number one the
30-day ceasefire but it will be moving
from that first stage if it goes
successfully into the second stage and
what effectively I think the Americans
are asking Netanyahu to do in agreeing
to a permanent ceasefire is in fact to
end his political career because many
would say that once the military
operation is over then the day of
accountability begins and many predict
that will be when Netanyahu will have to
stand down as prime minister so I see
lots of obstacles in in the way and
along the way very quickly I mean you
mentioned ceasefire How likely is that
part of
it well a good positive response if the
reporting is right from a m hopefully
it's a first step the people of Gaza 2.3
million people are enduring insufferable
conditions daily which will have
long-term consequences on their whole um
way of life there it's Prof changes have
taken place we need a ceasefire now and
hopefully both sides will for no other
reason than pure humanitarian reasons
will agree to um that stage and then
hopefully political pressure will affect
the second stage Oliver mcternan thank
you so much for joining us
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