How Russia is Losing to Ukraine | 7 Months Later | Dhruv Rathee ft. @mohak_mangal

Summary

The video delves into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, detailing the growing unrest in Russia as citizens face partial mobilization and desperate attempts to flee. The script explores the significant shift in momentum, with Ukraine successfully defending its territory and reclaiming areas previously occupied by Russia. It discusses the impact of advanced military aid from the U.S., especially the HIMARS rocket systems, and assesses the war’s potential outcomes. The video concludes by examining the political ramifications for Putin, suggesting that while a total victory for either side seems unlikely, the war may eventually end through negotiations.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Russia-Ukraine war has taken a new turn, with many Russians attempting to flee the country due to Putin's partial mobilization declaration.
• 😀 The cost of international flights leaving Russia has skyrocketed, with some flights becoming unaffordable for most Russians.
• 😀 A bizarre trend emerged in Russia, with people searching for ways to break their arms in order to avoid being drafted into the military.
• 😀 Partial mobilization by President Putin forces average Russians to fight on the frontlines, even if they oppose the war.
• 😀 Protests against the war are intensifying in Russia, with demonstrators chanting for Putin to join the frontlines, while others flee the country.
• 😀 Initially, Russia believed it would quickly capture Ukraine, but the Ukrainian army proved resilient, forcing Russia to pull back from Kyiv.
• 😀 The war in Ukraine has shifted focus to the Donbas region, where the situation remains relatively stable, but Ukraine has recently started to reclaim territories.
• 😀 High-tech military support, such as American HIMARS rocket systems, has significantly boosted Ukraine's ability to fight back and disrupt Russian supply chains.
• 😀 Russia’s increasing reliance on conscripted soldiers highlights its weakening position, while Ukraine’s morale remains high due to the fight for national independence.
• 😀 The outcome of the war depends on three key factors: which side controls the initiative, which side is winning the war of attrition, and which side has the capacity to continue fighting.
• 😀 Despite ongoing heavy casualties, both sides are locked in a stalemate, with the war likely to continue for some time, though experts believe negotiations may ultimately end the conflict.
• 😀 Russia's political landscape is increasingly fragile, with growing dissent against Putin’s leadership, and mysterious deaths of critics fuel speculation about government involvement.

Q & A

Why are international flights out of Russia becoming unaffordable for most Russians?

International flight prices have skyrocketed due to the Russia-Ukraine war, with many flights being sold out. For example, the cheapest flight from Moscow to Dubai cost around 300,000 Rubles (₹400,000), which is five times the average monthly salary of a Russian.

What was the most common search term on Google in Russia during this time?

The most common search term in Russia was 'How to break your arm at home.' This search spike occurred due to Russians attempting to avoid the military mobilization ordered by President Putin, hoping that a broken arm would provide a medical reason to be exempt from fighting.

What is the reason behind the mass migration of Russians during this period?

The mass migration was largely due to Putin's declaration of Partial Mobilization, which forced ordinary Russians to join the military and fight in the war. Many people were desperate to leave the country to avoid being drafted.

What does the term 'partial mobilization' mean in the context of Russia's actions?

Partial mobilization refers to the Russian government's decision to call up reserve military personnel and conscripts to fight in the war. It specifically targets ordinary citizens who are being forced to join the frontlines, even if they did not volunteer.

How has the war affected Russia's international position and economy?

The war has led to economic hardship, with international sanctions imposed on Russia. Many American companies have exited Russia, but for most Russians, daily life continued with some disruption. However, as the war escalated, even ordinary citizens were drawn into the conflict, which deeply affected the domestic situation.

What did Russia initially expect from its invasion of Ukraine, and how did this plan fail?

Russia initially expected to quickly take over Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, within three days, hoping to overthrow the government with minimal resistance. However, this plan failed due to Ukraine's strong defense and the unexpected resilience of its military.

How did the conflict shift after Russia's initial failure to capture Kyiv?

After failing to capture Kyiv, Russia refocused its objectives on securing the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. The conflict then turned into a prolonged stalemate, with both sides digging in, and the frontlines largely remaining static.

What role did American technology play in Ukraine's resistance against Russia?

American technology, especially the HIMARS rocket launchers, played a crucial role in Ukraine's ability to target Russian infrastructure. These advanced systems allowed Ukraine to destroy Russian supply trucks and military targets, weakening Russia’s logistical capacity.

What are the three tests suggested by experts to evaluate the progress of the war?

The three tests to evaluate the war are: 1) Who has the initiative in the conflict, meaning which side sets the course of events. 2) The War of Attrition, where the goal is to exhaust the enemy over time. 3) The capacity to sustain the war, meaning which side has the resources to keep fighting.

What is the most likely outcome of the war, according to experts?

Experts suggest that the war will likely end through negotiations rather than a military victory. Both sides are exhausted, and neither will achieve total victory. Negotiations may take place when one side can set the agenda, with Ukraine's recent progress possibly allowing them to lead the peace talks.