Israel-Hamas conflict, what is the diplomatic and economic impact on S. Korea?
Summary
TLDRDie Sendung 'Within the Frame' diskutiert die Auswirkungen des Konflikts zwischen Israel und der palästinensischen Gruppe Hamas, der weltweite Auswirkungen hat, einschließlich möglicher Ölpreisschwankungen, die die südkoreanische Wirtschaft betreffen könnten. Gäste wie Dr. Pixon Hun und Prof. Kim San analysieren die geopolitischen Folgen für Südkorea, einschließlich der möglichen Beeinträchtigungen des Handels und der Versorgungskette, sowie die Rolle Südkoreas in der internationalen Gemeinschaft und seine Reaktion auf die wirtschaftlichen und diplomatischen Herausforderungen, die durch den Konflikt entstehen.
Takeaways
- 🕊️ Die Konflikte zwischen Israel und Hamas sowie zwischen Russland und der Ukraine haben globale Auswirkungen, einschließlich möglicher Schwierigkeiten für südkoreanische Unternehmen in der Region.
- 🔫 Die israelische Reaktion auf die Hamas-Angriffe, die mehr als 1400 Personen in Israel getötet haben, umfasst eine anhaltende Bombardierung des Gazastreifens.
- 🌍 Die weltweiten Bemühungen zur Lösung des Konflikts beinhalten auch den geplanten Besuch des US-Präsidenten Joe Biden in Israel.
- 📈 Die Kriegsfolgen beeinflussen bereits die globale Wirtschaft, mit steigenden Ölpreisen, die die südkoreanische Wirtschaft belasten könnten.
- 🤝 Die Beziehung zwischen Nordkorea und Hamas wird als weit entfernt angesehen, da eine direkte Verbindung unwahrscheinlich erscheint.
- 🚀 Nordkorea könnte von den Hamas-Angriffen lernen und Überraschungsangriffe auf Südkorea mit unkonventionellen Mitteln ausführen.
- 🛑 Der Besuch des Präsidenten der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate (VAE) in Südkorea wurde aufgrund des Konflikts verschoben, aber die Investitionszusagen von 30 Milliarden US-Dollar blieben unberührt.
- 📊 Die südkoreanische Wirtschaft ist stark von der Versorgung mit Rohöl aus dem Nahen Osten abhängig, was ein Risiko darstellt, falls der Konflikt eskaliert.
- 💶 Die Aufregung könnte den Dollar als sicheren Hafen stärken und zu einer Schwächung des südkoreanischen Won führen.
- 📉 Die Kriegsmosphäre kann auch den südkoreanischen Aktienmarkt beeinträchtigen, da der Konflikt ein zusätzliches Risiko für globale Finanzmärkte darstellt.
- 🇸🇦 Saudi-Arabien und Israel haben Normalisierungsbestrebungen, die durch den Konflikt zwischen Israel und Hamas vorerst eingefroren sind.
Q & A
Welche Rolle spielt die palästinensische Gruppe Hamas in der aktuellen Eskalation der Spannungen im Nahen Osten?
-Hamas hat am 7. Oktober angegriffen und mehr als 1.400 Menschen in Israel getötet, was zu einer anhaltenden Eskalation der Spannungen im Nahen Osten geführt hat.
Was ist die Reaktion von Tel Aviv auf die Angriffe von Hamas?
-Tel Aviv hat auf die Angriffe von Hamas mit einer wochenlangen Bombardierungskampagne im Gazastreifen reagiert.
Wie wirkt sich der Konflikt auf globale Ereignisse aus, wie den geplanten Gipfel zwischen Präsident Biden und seinem Emiraten-Gegenpart?
-Der Konflikt hat bereits globale Auswirkungen, einschließlich einer Verschiebung des geplanten Gipfels zwischen Präsident Biden und seinem Emiraten-Gegenpart.
Welche möglichen Auswirkungen hat der Konflikt auf die südkoreanische Wirtschaft?
-Die südkoreanische Wirtschaft könnte durch einen Anstieg des Ölpreises, der durch den Konflikt ausgelöst werden könnte, beeinträchtigt werden.
Was ist die Beurteilung des Nordkorea-Hamas-Verhältnisses laut Dr. Pixon Hun?
-Dr. Pixon Hun glaubt, dass direkte Beziehungen zwischen Nordkorea und Hamas zu weit hergeholt sind, da es zwar eine Vermutung gibt, dass Hamas nordkoreanische Waffensysteme verwendet, aber wenig Beweise für eine direkte Verbindung gibt.
Gibt es eine Möglichkeit, dass Nordkorea Hamas-Angriffsmethoden für einen Überraschungsangriff auf Südkorea nutzt?
-Ja, es gibt immer die Möglichkeit, dass Nordkorea asymmetrische Kriegsführung, einschließlich des Einsatzes unkonventioneller Waffensysteme, nutzt, um einen Überraschungsangriff auf Südkorea durchzuführen.
Wie wirkt sich der Konflikt auf die wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen Südkorea und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten aus?
-Obwohl der Präsident der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate seine Reise nach Südkorea verschoben hat, bleibt die 30-Milliarden-US-Dollar Investitionszusage unberührt.
Was ist der Hauptinhalt des abgeschlossenen Freihandelsabkommens zwischen Südkorea und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten?
-Das Freihandelsabkommen zwischen Südkorea und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten sieht vor, dass beide Länder ihren Markt für nahezu 90% der Produkte öffnen und die Tarife für 90% der Produkte innerhalb von 10 Jahren abschaffen werden.
Wie könnte der Konflikt die Handels- und Energiesektoren beeinflussen, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Südkorea und den USA?
-Der Konflikt könnte die Handels- und Energiesektoren beeinträchtigen, da Präsident Biden geplant hatte, an einer Verteidigungs- und Handelsmesse teilzunehmen und bestimmte kooperative Bemühungen in den Bereichen Energie und Verteidigung zu bestimmen.
Wie sollte Südkorea sich in Bezug auf die gegenwärtigen Konflikte positionieren?
-Südkorea sollte seine Rolle in der internationalen Gemeinschaft spielen, indem es Israel für das Verurteilen von Hamas unterstützt, aber auch die palästinensischen Menschen unterstützen muss, insbesondere bei der Bewältigung der durch den Krieg entstehenden Flüchtlingsproblematik.
Was ist die Beziehung zwischen Saudi-Arabien und Israel und wie könnte der Konflikt zwischen Israel und Hamas diese beeinflussen?
-Saudi-Arabien und Israel haben Normalisierungsbestrebungen, die aufgrund des Konflikts zwischen Israel und Hamas vorerst gestoppt wurden. Hamas könnte die Anschiffe auf diese Normalisierungsbestrebungen abzielen, um die Möglichkeit, das Land zurückzuerobern, zu reduzieren.
Welche Auswirkungen hat der Konflikt auf die südkoreanischen Unternehmen, die im Nahen Osten tätig sind?
-Bisher wurde keine schwerwiegende Schädigung südkoreanischer Unternehmen im Nahen Osten gemeldet, aber die Unternehmen sind auf die Lage bedacht und könnten bei Verschlechterung der Situation evakuiert werden.
Welche Versorgungsunterbrechungen könnte Südkorea aufgrund des Konflikts erleben?
-Die größte Sorge ist die des Rohöls, von dem Südkorea zu fast 70% vom Nahen Osten abhängig ist. Eine Verschlechterung der geopolitischen Lage könnte den Rohstofftransport beeinträchtigen.
Wie wirkt sich der Anstieg des Ölpreises auf die Inflation in Südkorea aus?
-Der internationale Ölpreis steigt bereits, und der Konflikt kann diesen Anstieg beschleunigen. Eine Beteiligung des Iran an dem Konflikt könnte den Ölpreis über 130 Dollar pro Barrel treiben und somit die Inflation in Südkorea erhöhen.
Wie könnte der Konflikt den Wechselkurs des US-Dollars beeinflussen?
-Der Konflikt erhöht die Unsicherheit im Devisenmarkt, was zu einer stärkeren Nachfrage nach dem als sicherem Vermögenswert angesehenen US-Dollar führen kann und somit den Wechselkurs beeinflusst.
Was ist die Auswirkung des Konflikts auf den Kapitalfluss und Aktienmärkte?
-Der Konflikt ist ein zusätzliches Risikofaktor für den globalen Finanzmarkt, was zu einem negativen Einfluss auf den südkoreanischen Aktienmarkt führen kann, insbesondere wenn ausländische Investoren zu sicheren Anlagen migrieren.
Outlines
📺 Nahost-Konflikt und globale Auswirkungen
Der Nahost-Konflikt hat nach den Hamas-Angriffen am 7. Oktober die Spannungen im Nahen Osten weiter verschärft. Israel hat daraufhin mit einem AAL-Bombardement auf den Gazastreifen reagiert, was weltweite Auswirkungen hat, darunter die Verschiebung des geplanten Gipfels zwischen Präsident Biden und seinem UAE-Kollegen sowie die Befürchtungen von Ölpreisschwankungen, die die südkoreanische Wirtschaft beeinträchtigen könnten. Dr. Pixon Hun, Forscher an der Universität für Außenpolitik, diskutiert die Auswirkungen auf die Diplomatie und die möglichen Verbindungen zwischen Nordkorea und Hamas. Er betont, dass direkte Beziehungen zwischen beiden als weit hergeholt angesehen werden und dass die Waffenlieferungen aus Nordkorea wahrscheinlich über Syrien und den Iran stattfinden. Zudem werden die Möglichkeiten einer Überraschungsangriffsstrategie durch Nordkorea, die von der Effizienz der Hamas-Angriffe inspiriert sein könnte, besprochen.
🤝 Wirtschaftspartnerschaft zwischen Südkorea und den UAE
Der Präsident der Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate hat seine geplante Reise nach Südkorea aufgrund des Konflikts in der Region verschoben, jedoch bleibt die 30-Milliarden-US-Dollar Investition unberührt. Vor drei Jahren wurde eine umfassende Wirtschaftspartnerschaftsvereinbarung geschlossen, die die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Südkoreas steigern soll. Über 90% der südkoreanischen Produkte sollen innerhalb von zehn Jahren关税frei in den UAE sein. Die Befreiung von 3% Tariffs auf den Rohölimport aus dem UAE kann dazu beitragen, die Versorgungskette zu stabilisieren und die Preiswettbewerbsfähigkeit auf dem Weltmarkt zu erhöhen. Darüber hinaus wurde eine zusätzliche Vereinbarung zur Energie- und Ressourcenkooperation aufgenommen, die für erneuerbare Energie, Wasserstoff und CCS (Carbon Capture and Utilization and Storage) von Bedeutung ist. Dr. Beck diskutiert auch die möglichen Auswirkungen des Konflikts auf Präsident Yuns 'Verkaufsdiplomatie', insbesondere im Energie- und Verteidigungssektor.
🌍 Südkoreas Rolle in der internationalen Gemeinschaft
Südkorea sollte in der internationalen Gemeinschaft ihre Rolle spielen und sowohl Israel unterstützen, Hamas für ihr Fehlverhalten verurteilen, als auch den palästinensischen Flüchtlingen helfen. Dr. Beck erklärt, dass die Hamas-Angriffe möglicherweise auch mit den Bemühungen Saudi-Arabiens und Israels, ihre Beziehungen zu normalisieren, zusammenhängen. Die Hamas-Angriffe könnten die Pläne zur Normalisierung des Dialogs zwischen Israel und den Golfstaaten beeinträchtigen, was Saudi-Arabien in einer besseren Verhandlungsposition für die Teilnahme an den Abraham-Abkommen platzieren könnte.
🛑 Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Konflikts auf Südkorea
Der Konflikt hat Auswirkungen auf südkoreanische Unternehmen, die in der Nähe des Konflikts tätig sind oder in den Nahen Osten exportieren. Professor Kim San von Ewha Women's University erklärt, dass die südkoreanische Wirtschaft von der Versorgung mit Rohöl abhängig ist und dass eine Versorgungsunterbrechung oder ein Anstieg der Ölpreise die Inflation in Südkorea verschlimmern könnte. Die internationale Ölpreise steigen, selbst ohne dass der Konflikt die Produktion und Lieferung aus Israel beeinträchtigt, und eine mögliche Beteiligung des Iran könnte den Ölpreis noch weiter in die Höhe treiben. Die südkoreanische Regierung und Industrie bemühen sich, solche Auswirkungen zu minimieren.
📉 Wechselkursschwankungen und Marktturbulenzen
Professor Kim San warnt vor Wechselkursschwankungen und Marktturbulenzen aufgrund des Konflikts. Der Konflikt hat die Unsicherheit im Devisenmarkt erhöht, was zu einem stärkeren Dollar und einer schwächeren Won führt. Die Zentralbank Koreas ist unwahrscheinlich, ihre Schlüsselzinssatz zu erhöhen, während die US-Notenbank eine hohe Zinsrate aufrechterhält, was zu einer weiteren Schwächung der Won führen wird. Darüber hinaus könnte der Konflikt den Kapitalfluss in Aktienmärkten beeinträchtigen, da ausländische Investoren aufgrund der anhaltenden hohen Zinsen in den USA und des Konflikts in Israel zu sicheren Anlagen wie den USA strömen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Hamas
💡Israel
💡Gaza Strip
💡Joe Biden
💡Konflikt
💡Nordkorea
💡Südkorea
💡UAE
💡Energie
💡Wirtschaft
Highlights
Tensions in the Middle East are escalating due to Hamas' attacks on October 7th, which resulted in over 1,400 casualties in Israel.
Tel Aviv has been conducting a week-long bombardment campaign in the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas attacks.
US President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit Israel, which may have diplomatic implications.
The conflict has global impacts, including the delay of a summit between the UAE and South Korea and potential oil price surges affecting the Korean economy.
Dr. Pixon Hun, a researcher, suggests that direct relations between Hamas and North Korea are unlikely due to lack of evidence.
North Korea could potentially learn from Hamas' unconventional warfare tactics for a surprise attack on South Korea.
South Korea and the UAE have a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, which is significant for trade and competitiveness.
The UAE's investment commitments to South Korea, amounting to 30 billion US Dollars, remain unaffected by the conflict.
President Yun's sales diplomacy might face obstacles due to the conflict, but the impact is expected to be limited.
South Korea should support Israel while also aiding Palestinian refugees in the face of the conflict.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas has put plans for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel on hold.
Korean companies operating in Israel are closely monitoring the situation, with some switching to remote work.
South Korea is concerned about potential supply chain disruptions, particularly for crude oil from the Middle East.
A rise in oil prices due to the conflict could exacerbate inflation in South Korea.
Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market is a concern, with potential impacts on the value of the South Korean won.
Market turbulence and capital flows in stocks are being monitored closely due to the conflict.
Transcripts
[Music]
hello everyone it's Tuesday and you're
watching within the frame I'm Kim buang
ever since the Palestinian military
group Hamas attack on October 7th
tensions in the Middle East have been
escalating in response to Hamas attacks
that killed more than 1,400 people in
Israel Tel aiv has been continuing its
week-long AAL bombardment campaign of
the Gaza Strip worldwide efforts are
being taken including US President Joe
Biden's scheduled visit to Israel soon
but the impact of such a war is already
affecting the globe the planned Summit
between pres newer and UAE counterpart
has already been delayed and authorities
are bracing for a surge in oil prices
which should affect the Korean economy
we first invite Dr pixon hun a
researcher at The Institute for Middle
Eastern studies from huk University of
Foreign Studies to ask about impact on
diplomacy Dr backck
welcome thank you thank you for having
me thank you for being with us dror now
first question the Israel Hamas conflict
has Amplified the ominous North current
presence on the Korean Peninsula a Joint
Chiefs of Staff official even assessed
that Hamas is believed to be directly or
indirectly linked to North Korea in
various areas what do you think of this
view uh I believe
uh the uh the relation with Hamas and
North Korea direct direct relations are
kind of like too far-fetched
because yes the reason why Hamas is
using Korean North Korean weaponary
system is because North Korea has a
close tie with Syria and also a uh ilc
which is Iranian uh Iranian government
Iranian Revolution 4 so there are
possibility that Korean North Korean
nucle uh North Korean weapon system and
weapon might uh spill into a Hamas
through that channel but uh currently
there's you know small evidence that
there are direct Channel or direct
relation with North Korea and Hamas are
less uh likely all right I see so direct
relationship between North Korea and
Hamas could be considered too
far-fetched now Dr Pac what we are
concerned about the most is the
possibility that North Korea could use
Hama
attack methods for a surprise attack on
South Korea what are the chances of
this I mean it is so obvious because if
there are a Warfare happens uh between
uh the uh agent that has a dis dis
frequencies on their uh military
capability there's always possibility
that the this a symetry uh Warfare could
happen like gerilla Warfare proxy
warfare using drawn or using uh the
chemical weapons and all that using an
unconventional weapon system could be
always uh possible for the osmet Warfare
and we all know that North Korea and
South Korea has significant like
asymmetri power uh uh on in terms of of
in Terms about ammunition and uh
military weaponry system etc etc so yes
after witnessing how Hamas efficiently
maneuvered the uh the iron the mid-range
missile defense system and how they use
uh this uh unconventional like strategy
to to uh to what do we call overcome
this security uh forces of IDF really
affect on uh North Korea by seeing Oh by
even though there's a a symmetry of like
military uh the capability they could
they could success sucessfully uh strike
at the South Korea uh although they have
like what do we call the more strong
military capability so of course but but
they uh North Korean government or
military will going to uh thly see how
this uh strike attack I mean surprise
attack was successfully done carried out
by the Hamad so yes there is always a
possibility of this uh yeah strategies
for us Warfare yes all right I see so to
sum up there's also POS always
possibility for North Korea to use
unconventional attack methods like Hamas
I see now uh Dr Beck meanwhile the
president of the United Arab Emirates
postponed his visit to South Korea amid
a rising conflict in the region and the
presidential office said the uae's
investment commitments of 30 billion US
Dollars would not be affected what are
the details of
this yes uh 3 days years ago on the 14th
of October both countri has successfully
concluded the negotiation for a
comprehensive economic partnership
agreement I mean this a achievement was
reached in just two years and six months
since the negotiation beginning April
2021 notably the United States Japan and
European Union have not yet concluded
the ftas or sepa agreement with the UA
so which is expected to to us that it
significantly enhanced our
competitiveness of like export
so under this uh uh South Korea UA sepa
both country will open their Market to a
high degree and like more than 90% of
our products the Tariff of our 90% of
products will uh going to uh lessen our
taret within 10 years and uh we're going
to have no tax between uh these two
country products and for South Korean uh
site because South Korea Imports about
9.2 billion dollars uh worth of crude
oil an ually from UAE the elimination of
3% tariff can contribute to stabilizing
supply chain but also since we import
crude oil and refine the crude oil to
resell it's in various form of other
chemical it will give us our uh product
of price competitiveness in Global
Market so that's uh the thing that we
should uh look at and particularly
significant particularly significant is
in the inclusion of supplementary
agreement related to energy and resource
cooperation which had previously uh been
excluded from sepa agreement that the US
conclude with any other country so this
is expected to excal our coroporation in
renewable energy hydrogen and carbon
capture and utilization and storage well
known as a cost CC us which is uh one of
the main agenda uh uh uh within the era
of uh carbon
neutrality I see so there was definitely
significant development between the ties
uh between South Korea and UAE but uh Dr
be though PO said the presidential
office said the latest uh pledge about
the investment is unaffected there are
still some Reports say uh president un
sales diplomacy inevitably had to face
some obstacles given that the US
president was set to attend defense
trade show index and also specify
certain Cooperative efforts in the
energy and defense sectors what impact
do you expect this war to have on
President yun's sales diplomacy overall
regarding this
region uh so you mean like uh the
current War and what will be the impact
on our
sales uh I wish I I would be but I'm not
a wizard with a crystal ball so I I
don't know how this uh the conflict and
the Israel and Hamas Ware we're going to
live but but what I could say is uh that
uh this uh this Israel Hamas War are the
impact of Israel Hamas will I think in
current situation is quite limited
because United stat are doing their best
to restain this Israel Hamas conflict as
a limited War that's why blinkin has
reached out for wangi and uh uh they
have centered their uh the aircraft
carrier in mediterian Sea to control and
manage this Warfare
and uh as an exit and the the the
entrepreneur in the field are kind of
bit worried because they have witnessed
what Ukraine and Russia Warfare had led
uh to the global market and Etc but like
the problem is uh the the reality is
this I mean the Gaza palestin
Palestinian they uh I mean they are all
caught up from value Global value chain
so the impact of gajan uh to Global
Market uh is limited and also for Israel
cases I know Israel only has 900 99
million uh population uh uh there so
their Market is not a big Market but
yeah they do have some kind of
technology so there they might the war
might have an influential on the nich
market but in the global wise uh the
impact that's uh impact of this Warfare
won't be that massive so the global
market of uh Financial Market interest
rate unemployment rate and oil price are
uh there's no significant change because
of the after the Warfare so the market
already uh kind of reacted to uh what is
happening and uh they uh through the
process so I don't think it's for
example Ukraine Ukraine was the the what
do we call the field uh was the one of
the country that produced a lot of like
uh uh crops and the Russia is a country
energy country who export natural gas
and oil so compared to that of uh the
ukraini and Russian wol war this uh
Hamas isra has less limited impact in
global uh you know market so I don't
think there will be a obstacle but I
don't believe it will be massive on like
preventing the uh uh yun's
Administration uh uh the the diplomacy
of Middle East on sales diplomacy on the
Middle East all right I see so it could
have impact but it will be quite limited
I see now uh Dr be we are already
witnessing two major Wars uh the war in
Ukraine involving Russia and the Israel
Hamas conflict now how should South
Korea position itself in dealing with
these
conflicts I think I have to say
since it's uh I think uh I I know it
sounds very dull and uh insignificant if
but what we could do is now is just just
play our role in International Community
so we're going to support Israel for
condemning Hamas for their ill Behavior
but also we have to support the people
of palestin Palestinians so since there
will be a lot of refugees uh uh uh uh
created by this Warfare so we have to be
very uh supportive on uh aiding the
Palestinian refugee but also also uh uh
uh stand aside with Israel on condemning
Hamas I think that is what we could do
in uh this moment and yes I think that
that is the Diplomatic uh the the stance
that we could take on on this moment all
right I see we need to play our own role
now Dr Beck Before I Let You Go I'd like
to ask you several uh issues regarding
this conflict so uh Saudi Arabia and
Israel tried to normalize time TI but as
the conflict between Israel and
Palestinian militant group Hamas
escalated these plans have apparently
been put on ice and some say intention
behind Hamas attacks is related to this
as well how they see this
yes yes I mean it's a very uh we have to
go back to a little bit of History to
understand all this like diplomatic uh
uh the the The Diplomatic Behavior but
let let's phrase this I mean the Israel
place in peace of process was uh has a a
basic principle which is two-state
solution so that's what international
communities have kind of like uh
searched for but after Trump
Administration came into Power uh this
principle has changed which uh that sums
up with Abraham so two- State solution
is that if Israel gives return back the
Palestinian the land that they took over
after third uh the Arab Israeli War then
Palestinian and AD were going to give
back the the peace to the Israel but
after Trump Administration came the land
for peace uh principle has changed to
peace to piece peace for piece uh
principle which means yes let's forget
about the L I mean it's very difficult
because all the players doesn't want uh
to return this land and we don't know
how to do it so let's just first build a
pce through economic uh cooperation join
and if the economic cooperation happens
then we're going to build up on pieace
through there but this kind of really
hardly uh kind of give a uh what do we
call uh the the threat to the Hamas and
other Palestine Palestine agent because
it means oh we might have lost our
chance to retry back our land because
the United State and other countries are
doing a different method to build a
so-called peace process and Saudi Arabia
was kind of first uh uh rejected the
saying that uh we will stick to the land
for peace not the peaceful peace uh
process but because uh the all this work
of uh Biden Saudi Arabia was tilting
toward to accept and become a part of
abrah Accord but this Hamas the attack
and this isra Hamas woare kind of bring
a halt to this process so yes like what
you said it it is the ice on the
Diplomatic process but uh in the
perspective of a United State state but
for Arabia the country who always been
supported on two-state solution it kind
of give more favorable condition for is
Saudi Arabia to play their game so in
this situation Saudi Arabia will uh see
uh wait and see and uh to see okay now
in this situation we could not I cannot
go go I cannot go go and participate at
AB BR ports but the Saudi Arabia we
going to wait to see uh what Biden can
bring to them and if they see it is much
beneficial then they'll go a little bit
further to be part of the abrt so it
kind of uh in Saudi Arabian perspective
uh it's giving it's bringing more uh
favorable uh environment for them to
choose uh between uh uh whether they're
going to join the abort or they were
going to just wait and see and uh uh
make some more leverage on uh to see
what United State could give them for in
term in the tradeoff of like
participating that aborts all right I
see it's quite interesting to hear from
uh the Saudi Arabia's point of view now
uh that's all the questions we have for
you for now thank you Dr Beck for your
insights on how this conflict in the
Middle East region might affect Soul's
diplomatic efforts thank
you thank
you now as we have said earlier the
diplomacy is not the only area South K
needs to consider it is highly likely
this war is going to have much more
impact on the economy and thus we invite
Professor Kim San from Ewa Women's
University to discuss this welcome
Professor Kim thank you for having me
thank you for being with us now
Professor first of all there are krent
companies located close to the conflict
and they're worried about the potential
business Fallout and not just those
there but also businesses that mainly
export to the Middle East region are
concerned about the war escalation how
serious are such
issues uh Korean companies doing
businesses in in Israel region are
closely monitoring the Israel Hamas
conflicts as uh deadly clashes go on in
the country uh until now fortunately no
serious damage to Korean businesses has
been reported yet but if the situation
get worse uh Korean staff are ready to
be
evacuated uh the two representative
Korean corporations
uh Samsung electronics and Hyundai model
have larger businesses in Israel and
Israel is a an important Sales
Management Hub that distribute their
products to Middle East regions uh
Samsung Electronics runs to research
centers and sales uh Corporation in
Israel it says 100% of its local
employees have been switched uh to
remote work for the sake of their safety
uh Hundai and his sister company Kia
motor are also deeply involved in
Israel's auto market as as the best and
second best selling car brands there uh
no damage of cars exported from Korea
has been reported yet at the dealership
uh other Korean corporations like LG
Electronics are also converting to
telecommuting in
Israel I see is quite nice to hear that
there wasn't major damage reported up
until now and I hope that continues now
Professor Kim there are also growing
concerns over the need to manage the
supply chain for specific materials
South Korea is highly dependent on
Israel what kind of Supply disruptions
might we have to face and is there a way
to tackle
this uh regarding timely supply of uh
parts and natural resources the number
one concern goes to crude oil uh Korean
economy relies on Middle for nearly 70%
of his oil supply uh so along with Japan
this is one of the largest dependency on
uh on Middle East oil so far the war in
Israel gets so as the world in Israel
gets longer one of the largest victims
could be uh Korean
economy uh the the straight of Horus a
major rout transporting oil and gas to
Korea has remained intact despite the
recent clashes but the geopolitical
situation can
be got worse anytime in the straight of
hormos if Iran uh decide to get involved
in Israel war in addition Korean export
and imports uh uh from Euro Zone take a
root of SW Su Canal so if Su Canal
region is seized by military action uh
uh the supply Channel with Euro Zone
will get stuck as we have in a stranded
cargo ship caused Maritime traffic chaos
in the Swiss Canal a year ago uh cran
government and Industry make an all out
effort to prevent these ra Harless
conflicts from uh affect affecting
Korean Supply loot I see so the biggest
worry is about crude oil now Professor
what's more concerning is that this rise
in oil prices could also worsen
inflation right to what extent would
this affect inflation in South
Korea the international oil price was
Rising seriously even before this Ral
War so this war can accelerate the rise
of oil price in international market as
as we talked about there is no serious
impact on oil Productions and deliveries
from Israel world yet but the situation
is very much fragile depending on other
uh Middle East countries actions on the
world
uh most of the market analyst point out
that Iran's uh possible intervention in
the world can change both of oil
production and safety of major
transporting Roots like the straight of
hormos uh according to bromberg's recent
survey without Iran's intervention uh
International oil price is expected to
rise less than $5 per barrel but as as
the worst scenario if Iran takes part in
the the word oil price will be
skyrocketed above $130 per barrel so to
summarize this isra world itself gives a
stronger uh pressure on Korean inflation
by raising uh oil price I see so uh the
rise and oil prices would mainly depend
on Iran's participation in the war I
guess now uh Professor Kim shift and
gears a little bit here volatility in
the Foreign Exchange Market also needs
to be monitored as cash flow over to the
safe haven dollar there are worries that
this conflict will affect the $1
exchange rate and make the one
depreciation more serious how do you see
this and if volatility does get high how
should South Korean authorities tackle
this basically Foreign Exchange Market
has
uncertainty uh so when uncertainty goes
up there go stronger dollars a demand
for dollars uh which is a safe asset and
one of the most certain phenomena would
be the world uh Foreign Exchange Market
is already hit by his seriously by uh
Ukraine world and we have additional
impact that increases the value of US
dollar from the world in Israel and
given us fast 5.5% base rate uh Bank of
Korea is not likely to raise its key
interest rate above
3.5% therefore stronger dollar or higher
$1 exchange rate will be Contin
as words in in in both Ukraine and
Israel go on and interest rate gap
between us and Korea is not likely uh to
decrease for Korean government and Bank
of Korea the only solution of
stabilizing uh exchange rate would be
raising domestic interest rate but
thanks to declining domestic economy it
would be very difficult to hide the
based interest rate this time right I
see see so I believe there will be high
chances that b is going to freeze the
rate uh for the upcoming rate setting
meeting on Thursday now uh Professor Kim
uh I believe this would be our last
question what also matter is possible
Market turbulence many are worrying
about Capital flows in stocks how do you
see the
market as we talked about the world in
Israel is an important additional risk
factor to Global Financial market and in
Global Market standards uh Korean St
Market is still you know part of
Emerging Market which is relatively
riskier place to invest uh recently a
market consensus that Korea is becoming
less attractive to for investor is
rising a the uptrend $1 exchange rate uh
driven by concerns over sustained High
interest rate in the United States
appears to have negative impact uh
foreign investor sentiment uh this has
been further exacerbated by ongoing
conflicts between Israel and Hamas uh
leading them to gravitate toward Safe
Haven assess uh foreign investors posted
a net outflow of of more than $1.4
billion Incas Securities Market in
September and September marked the
second consecutive month of uh net
outlow of foreign
investors all right I see Professor Kim
well that are all the questions I have
thank you professor for your time and
insights we really appreciate it thank
you very much thank
you all right that's all for within the
frame tonight we'll be back tomorrow
with more in-depth stories thank you for
watching and
[Music]
goodbye
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