Konflik Rusia & Ukraina, Pakar Hukum Internasional: Ada pelaku Separatis! | tvOne

Summary

The transcript details the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, focusing on Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's border and its justification for supporting separatists in the Donbass region. Ukraine counters this as an illegal invasion, seeking international support while dealing with internal unrest. Global reactions, especially from Western countries and China, are explored, with emphasis on economic sanctions and military responses. The situation's potential impact on Indonesia is discussed, highlighting rising oil prices and the need for diplomatic intervention, with Indonesia urged to leverage its position in the G20 for global peace efforts.

Takeaways

• 😀 Russia's military forces are moving closer to the Ukrainian border, with satellite images showing military vehicles advancing.
• 😀 Russia justifies its actions by claiming it is supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine who have declared independence and requested help.
• 😀 Ukraine views Russia's involvement as an act of aggression, threatening its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• 😀 The conflict has sparked condemnation from Western countries like the US and Australia, which view Russia's actions as a violation of international law.
• 😀 Russia is confident that sanctions will not significantly impact its economy due to preparations and its ability to withstand them over time.
• 😀 The conflict is not limited to Ukraine but has global implications, particularly regarding oil prices and the global financial market.
• 😀 Indonesia, as part of the G20, could play a diplomatic role in resolving the crisis, especially by advocating for a UN General Assembly resolution.
• 😀 The escalation of the conflict could potentially lead to a World War III scenario, making it a matter of global concern.
• 😀 The US may form alliances, similar to the 'Coalition of the Willing' in previous conflicts, to counter Russian aggression without direct UN involvement.
• 😀 Indonesia could face economic challenges from the conflict, especially through rising oil prices and disruptions in the global market.

Q & A

What is the current situation regarding Russia's military movements near Ukraine?

Russia has been moving military forces towards Ukraine's border, particularly near the Donbass region. These movements have been observed since Wednesday, indicating a significant military buildup, with the possibility of an impending military conflict.

What are the two main narratives regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

The first narrative, from Russia, claims that separatists in eastern Ukraine, who have declared independence, are seeking Russian assistance to defend themselves against Ukrainian forces. The second narrative, from Ukraine, views these separatists as illegal actors, and any Russian intervention is considered an act of aggression.

How is Russia justifying its military actions in Ukraine?

Russia justifies its military actions by supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, who have declared independence. Russia has recognized their self-declared republics and pledged military assistance if they are attacked by Ukraine.

What are the potential consequences if Russia launches a full-scale attack on Ukraine?

If Russia launches a full-scale attack, Ukraine may struggle to defend itself given the disparity in military power. This could lead to a larger geopolitical conflict, especially if NATO or other Western countries intervene. Additionally, economic sanctions and a potential rise in global oil prices could follow.

Why might Ukraine's attempt to join NATO complicate the situation?

Ukraine's desire to join NATO complicates the situation because NATO's principle of collective defense would require member states to come to Ukraine’s defense if it is attacked. However, Ukraine is not yet a NATO member, and any military action would likely not trigger direct NATO involvement.

What role does the UN Security Council play in addressing the conflict, and why might it fail?

The UN Security Council's role would be to address the situation and potentially authorize peacekeeping forces. However, Russia, as a permanent member with veto power, can block any resolutions that would mandate military intervention or sanctions against Russia, making the Council ineffective in this instance.

What kind of sanctions are being imposed by the West on Russia, and how effective are they expected to be?

The West, particularly the US, is imposing economic sanctions on Russia. However, these sanctions are expected to have limited immediate impact, as Russia has prepared for such measures and the effects may only be felt by its population months later. Additionally, Russia's strong position in energy markets and trade relations with China may buffer the effects.

How does China’s stance on the conflict influence global politics?

China has not condemned Russia’s actions but has called for restraint and a peaceful resolution. China’s neutrality, or possible alignment with Russia, could shift the balance of power in global geopolitics, particularly if China provides Russia with economic support, undermining Western sanctions.

What potential economic impacts could Indonesia face due to the conflict?

Indonesia could face higher oil prices as global energy markets are affected by the conflict. This, in turn, would increase the cost of imports and create inflationary pressures. Additionally, disruptions in global trade and financial markets could have a broader economic impact.

What actions does Professor Hikmahanto Juwana suggest for Indonesia in response to the conflict?

Professor Hikmahanto Juwana suggests that Indonesia should play an active diplomatic role, calling for an emergency session of the UN General Assembly, engaging in shuttle diplomacy with key international players, and pushing for peaceful conflict resolution. He emphasizes Indonesia's constitutional obligation to promote global peace and security.