THE 4 BULL RUN CRYPTO CATALYSTS: M2, PRESIDENCY, 13F & RE-ALLOCATION.

Summary

The live stream discusses four catalysts that could potentially lead to the next Bitcoin Bull Run, as inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph. The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions but delves into historical patterns that Bitcoin is said to be repeating from 2016. The first catalyst is the involvement of major institutions, evidenced by recent 13F filings showing significant investments in Bitcoin ETFs. The second is the M2 money supply, which historically correlates with the rise in Bitcoin's price. The third is the impact of the U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty and subsequent resolution. Lastly, the speaker highlights the potential for reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold and real estate to cryptocurrency. The video also touches on the recent positive net inflows into ETFs and the activity of dormant Bitcoin wallets, suggesting a possible trend of smart money moving into the cryptocurrency space.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker discusses four catalysts they believe could lead to the next bull run for Bitcoin, inspired by an article from Coin Telegraph.
• 💬 The speaker is skeptical about technical analysis (TA) and price predictions, considering them to be of little value.
• ⚖️ Bitcoin's price history is compared to its performance in 2016, suggesting a pattern that might repeat with a significant price spike following a reaccumulation period.
• 💵 Major institutions are increasingly investing in Bitcoin, as evidenced by recent 13F filings, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment.
• 📊 The M2 money supply has historically influenced asset prices, including Bitcoin, and the current supply situation is being watched as a potential catalyst.
• 🤝 The outcome of the presidential election is seen as a potential market influence, with different implications depending on who is elected.
• 💼 The speaker suggests that reallocating funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to cryptocurrency could provide a significant boost to the crypto market.
• 🌐 Global wealth and derivatives markets are vast, and even a small reallocation of funds towards cryptocurrency could have a substantial impact.
• 📉 Despite recent inflows to ETFs, the speaker notes that the amounts are relatively small and that the overall trend had been negative prior to the most recent positive shift.
• 🐋 On-chain analysis, such as that provided by Lookonchain, can offer insights into the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, which can be informative for market participants.
• 🎉 The speaker will be attending the Consensus conference in Austin, providing an opportunity for networking and potentially meeting viewers.

Q & A

What is the speaker's opinion on technical analysis (TA) and price predictions?

The speaker believes that technical analysis has its place but is not a fan of price predictions, considering them to be worthless.

According to the speaker, what is the significance of the article from Coin Telegraph?

The article from Coin Telegraph is significant because it discusses how Bitcoin is repeating its 2016 history and presents a price prediction, which the speaker dismisses but uses as a starting point to discuss potential market catalysts.

What is the first catalyst for the next Bull Run mentioned by the speaker?

The first catalyst mentioned is the involvement of major institutions, such as Black Rock, and the 13F filings that reveal significant stakes in ETFs related to Bitcoin.

What does the speaker think about the role of the M2 money supply in the Bitcoin market?

The speaker believes that the M2 money supply plays a crucial role in the Bitcoin market, with an increase in money supply often correlating with an increase in Bitcoin's price.

What is the speaker's view on the impact of the presidential election on the market?

The speaker suggests that markets typically dislike uncertainty associated with elections but once the election is over, regardless of the outcome, the market tends to stabilize and move forward.

What is the fourth catalyst mentioned by the speaker?

The fourth catalyst is the reallocation of funds from traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate to the cryptocurrency market.

Why does the speaker find it interesting that major institutions are investing in Bitcoin ETFs?

The speaker finds it interesting because it indicates a growing acceptance and legitimacy of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle, which could potentially lead to increased market activity and growth.

What is the significance of the 13F filings in the context of the speaker's discussion?

The 13F filings are significant because they are a legal requirement for institutions to disclose their equity holdings, providing transparency into major investments, including those in Bitcoin-related ETFs.

How does the speaker feel about the recent movement of dormant Bitcoin wallets?

The speaker finds it intriguing and noteworthy, as it could indicate a shift in sentiment or strategy among long-term Bitcoin holders.

What is the speaker's perspective on the current state of ETFs in relation to Bitcoin?

The speaker is optimistic about the return of net inflows to ETFs after a period of outflows, suggesting that this could be a positive sign for the Bitcoin market.

What does the speaker suggest for individuals interested in following the strategies of large Bitcoin investors?

The speaker suggests following resources like 'Look on Chain' and 'Smart Money Crypto', which track and analyze the activities of large Bitcoin wallets to potentially copy their trading strategies.