Who Really CONTROLS The Markets!! Her Plans REVEALED!!
Summary
TLDREl Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, liderado por Janet Yellen, ha estado ejerciendo un control significativo sobre los mercados financieros a través de la gestión de la deuda y la política fiscal. La emisión de deuda del gobierno, especialmente en períodos de déficit, afecta los precios y rendimientos de los bonos, lo que a su vez influye en las tasas de interés y la liquidez en el mercado. La relación entre el Tesoro y la Reserva Federal es clave, ya que mientras la Reserva Federal se centra en la estabilidad del empleo y la inflación, el Tesoro busca promover la prosperidad económica y la seguridad financiera, objetivos que pueden entrar en conflicto. Las políticas del Tesoro, incluyendo la reciente autorización para comprar deuda de Estados Unidos y la gestión de activos rusos congelados, pueden generar incertidumbre en los mercados y afectar la confianza de los inversores en la deuda estadounidense. La implicación política en la economía y la gestión de la deuda es un factor importante a considerar para los inversores al evaluar la dirección futura de las economías globales.
Takeaways
- 🏛️ El Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos, encabezado por Janet Yellen, ha estado controlando los mercados financieros durante los últimos dos años.
- 💵 El Tesoro gestiona los impuestos, el gasto gubernamental, la financiación y la acuñación de moneda física, y tiene una influencia significativa en los mercados globales.
- 📉 La emisión de deuda por parte del Tesoro, cuando no hay suficientes ingresos por impuestos y tarifas, afecta los precios de los bonos y, por ende, los rendimientos, lo que a su vez influye en las tasas de interés.
- 🔗 Los bonos estadounidenses son una forma de garantía popular en el sistema financiero global, y su demanda fluctúa según diversos factores, incluida la política exterior de los EE. UU.
- 🌐 Las divisiones internacionales del Tesoro manejan relaciones con países aliados y enemigos, y sus decisiones pueden impactar la confianza y la demanda de bonos estadounidenses.
- 📈 La reciente decisión de Janet Yellen de mejorar la liquidez de los bonos y su disposición a intervenir en el mercado en momentos de crisis han tenido un impacto positivo en la recuperación de los mercados.
- 🔍 La relación entre la Reserva Federal y el Tesoro es compleja, y sus maniobras afectan la economía y los mercados de manera interconectada.
- 💸 El Tesoro tiene una gran cantidad de dinero en su cuenta general que eventualmente influirá en los mercados, y es probable que se gaste antes de las elecciones para estimular la economía.
- 🔄 La Fed ha comenzado a comprar más bonos estadounidenses, lo que dará lugar a una disminución en los rendimientos y tasas de interés, proporcionando así espacio para que el Tesoro emita más bonos a largo plazo.
- 🚨 La posible sequía de liquidez hasta junio debido a las decisiones de la Fed y el inicio de las operaciones de recomprá de bonos del Tesoro podrían causar una acción de precios lenta en el corto plazo.
- 🔍 El análisis de la liquidez y las decisiones del Tesoro y la Reserva Federal proporciona una ventaja en la inversión y el comercio, ya que afectan directamente los niveles de liquidez en el mercado.
Q & A
¿Qué es la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos y cómo ha estado controlando los mercados?
-La Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos es el banco central que regulaba los mercados principalmente mediante sus decisiones sobre las tasas de interés. Sin embargo, el script sugiere que en los últimos años, el Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos ha estado ejerciendo más control sobre los mercados.
¿Cuál es la función principal del Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos?
-El Departamento del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos es el brazo financiero del gobierno de los Estados Unidos, encargado de manejar todos los asuntos relacionados con los impuestos, la spending gubernamental, la financiación gubernamental e incluso la acuñación e impresión de moneda física.
¿Quién es la Secretaria del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos y cuál es su importancia en el contexto del script?
-La Secretaria del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos es Janet Yellen, quien anteriormente fue la presidenta de la Reserva Federal. Ella tiene un conocimiento profundo de cómo funciona la Fed y su alineación con la administración democrática actual es clave para entender la influencia del Tesoro sobre los mercados.
¿Cómo financia el gobierno de los Estados Unidos su gasto?
-El gobierno de los Estados Unidos financia su gasto principalmente mediante la recopilación de impuestos y tarifas, y emitiendo deuda cuando los ingresos por impuestos y tarifas no son suficientes para cubrir los costos. Esto se conoce como déficit presupuestario.
¿Cómo afectan los bonos emitidos por el Tesoro a las tasas de interés a largo plazo?
-Los bonos emitidos por el Tesoro, que son piezas de papel vendidas a inversionistas con una promesa de reembolso con intereses en el futuro, pueden ser negociados libremente en el mercado abierto. El rendimiento de un bono depende de su precio; si el precio de un bono cae, su rendimiento aumenta y viceversa. Estos bonos determinan las tasas de interés en la economía, ya que los rendimientos de los bonos son considerados la forma de interés de menor riesgo.
¿Por qué los bonos de los Estados Unidos son interesantes para los inversores internacionales?
-Los bonos de los Estados Unidos son interesantes para los inversores internacionales porque su supuesta seguridad los hace la forma más popular de garantía en el sistema financiero global. Un gran porcentaje de la demanda de los bonos de los Estados Unidos proviene del extranjero, lo que hace que la fluctuación de esta demanda esté influenciada por muchos factores.
¿Cómo ha influido la política en las decisiones del Tesoro y la Reserva Federal en los últimos años?
-La política ha influenciado las decisiones del Tesoro y la Reserva Federal al estar alineadas con los objetivos de la administración actual. Esto incluye garantizar que la economía sea robusta y la inflación moderada, y también asegurar que el gobierno pueda gastar lo necesario sin causar una perturbación excesiva en los mercados de bonos.
¿Qué es la Autoridad de Repos Reposición Inmediata (RRP) de la Reserva Federal y cómo ha ayudado al Tesoro?
-La Autoridad de Repos Reposición Inmediata (RRP) de la Reserva Federal permite a los inversores obtener un rendimiento similar a la tasa de interés a corto plazo establecida por la Fed. Esto ayudó a transmitir su política monetaria. La RRP ha sido utilizada recientemente por el Tesoro para financiar la emisión de bonos a corto plazo, sin necesidad de aumentar los rendimientos de estos bonos para atraer dinero de otros mercados.
¿Cómo podría afectar la decisión del Tesoro de comprar bonos de deuda de Estados Unidos a los inversores y al mercado?
-La decisión del Tesoro de comprar bonos de deuda de Estados Unidos, conocida como un programa de recomprá de bonos, podría causar volatilidad en el mercado de bonos. Al comprar bonos, el Tesoro liberaría dinero en el mercado, lo que podría aumentar la liquidez y afectar los precios de los activos y las tasas de interés.
¿Cómo podría la situación en Ucrania y la respuesta de los Estados Unidos afectar la percepción de los inversionistas sobre los activos en dólares de Estados Unidos?
-La decisión de congelar los activos de individuos y instituciones rusas por la invasión de Ucrania ha enviado una señal a los inversionistas de que los enemigos de los Estados Unidos y sus aliados podrían recibir un trato similar. Esto ha llevado a muchos países a alejarse de los bonos de Estados Unidos y otros activos en dólares, lo que podría aumentar una prima de riesgo para estos activos y afectar sus precios y rendimientos.
¿Cómo podría utilizar un inversor la información proporcionada en el script para obtener una ventaja en la inversión y el comercio?
-Un inversor podría utilizar la información para entender cómo las decisiones del Tesoro y la Reserva Federal afectan los niveles de liquidez en el mercado, lo que a su vez afecta los precios de los activos y las tasas de interés. Al anticipar estos movimientos, los inversores pueden tomar decisiones informadas sobre dónde colocar su dinero para maximizar sus ganancias.
Outlines
📈 Control de los mercados por el Tesoro de EE. UU.
Se desmiente la idea de que los bancos centrales, específicamente la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., controlan los mercados a través de sus decisiones de tasas de interés. Se argumenta que en realidad, el Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU. ha estado controlando los mercados desde hace al menos dos años. El Tesoro, liderado por Janet Yellen, quien anteriormente fue主席 ('presidente' en español, pero en el contexto se podría traducir como 'directora' o 'jefa') de la Reserva Federal, maneja asuntos fiscales y financieros del gobierno, incluyendo la emisión de deuda. La emisión de deuda del gobierno cuando los ingresos por impuestos y tarifas no son suficientes se llama déficit, y el valor del mismo en EE. UU. fue de dos billones de dólares el año pasado. La relación entre el valor de los bonos, su rentabilidad e intereses, y cómo estos afectan los tipos de interés en la economía se describe en detalle. Además, se destaca la importancia de los bonos de EE. UU. como colateral en el sistema financiero global.
🕵️♂️ Comprensión del papel del Tesoro y su influencia
Se profundiza en el papel del Tesoro y su influencia en los mercados, contrastando las funciones de la Reserva Federal y el Tesoro. La Reserva Federal ajusta los tipos de interés para mantener la economía robusta y la inflación moderada, mientras que el Tesoro se encarga de financiar el gasto gubernamental. Se discute cómo los bonos emitidos por el Tesoro afectan los tipos de interés a largo plazo y su papel como colateral en el sistema financiero. Se menciona la relación entre Janet Yellen y la administración democrática actual y cómo su influencia ha impactado los mercados, especialmente en momentos de crisis.
💵 Operaciones del Tesoro y su estrategia económica
Se explora la dinámica entre la Reserva Federal y el Tesoro, y las razones detrás de las acciones del Tesoro. Aunque la Reserva Federal tiene objetivos claros en cuanto a la estabilidad económica, el Tesoro tiene un mandato abierto de promover la prosperidad económica y la seguridad financiera de EE. UU., lo que puede ser interpretado de diferentes maneras según el partido en el poder. Se sugiere que la estrategia del Tesoro, influenciada por la política, busca evitar recesiones y facilitar el gasto gubernamental sin afectar negativamente los mercados de bonos. Además, se discute el impacto de las relaciones internacionales en la economía y las decisiones del Tesoro, incluyendo la influencia de Janet Yellen en la política exterior y el manejo de relaciones con países aliados y enemigos.
🌐 Impacto geopolítico y preparación del Tesoro
Se discute la posibilidad de que el Tesoro de EE. UU. prepare un programa de recomprá de bonos por primera vez en más de 20 años como medida para enfrentar una potencial subida en los rendimientos de los bonos debido a la creación de un riesgo premium. Se menciona la posibilidad de que los activos de Rusia congelados en el sistema financiero de EE. UU. sean enviados a Ucrania, lo que podría generar inestabilidad en los mercados de bonos y una mayor demanda por activos como el oro. Se argumenta que el dinero del programa de recomprá de bonos y otros gastos del Tesoro eventualmente fluirá hacia los mercados, lo que podría estimular la economía y los mercados financieros.
📉 Consideraciones de liquidez y proyecciones del mercado
Se analiza la situación actual y futura de la liquidez en los mercados y su impacto en la economía y los precios de las acciones. Se sugiere que, aunque el Tesoro tiene $400 mil millones disponibles para estimular la economía, las acciones de la Reserva Federal y la inminente operación de recomprá de bonos podrían llevar a una situación de liquidez neutral o negativa en el corto plazo. Se destaca la importancia de la liquidez para el funcionamiento de los mercados y cómo los cambios en la política monetaria y fiscal pueden afectar los movimientos de los precios de las acciones y otros activos. Además, se menciona el impacto potencial de las operaciones de recomprá de acciones en las empresas de tecnología y su efecto en los mercados de valores.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Banco Central
💡Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU.
💡Emisión de Deuda
💡Tasas de Interés
💡Riesgo Crédito
💡
💡Colateral
💡Política Fiscal
💡Deficit Presupuestario
💡Inflación
💡Balance de Pagos
💡Reversión de Política Monetaria
Highlights
Los bancos centrales, especialmente la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., no controlan los mercados por completo; el Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU. ha estado ejerciendo influencia.
El Departamento del Tesoro, con su secretaria Janet Yellen, maneja los impuestos, el gasto gubernamental y la financiación, y supervisa la acuñación de moneda física.
Janet Yellen, ex presidenta de la Reserva Federal, tiene un conocimiento profundo de cómo funciona la entidad y está alineada con la administración democrática actual.
El gasto gubernamental de EE. UU. se finanza a través de impuestos, tarifas y la emisión de deuda, lo que se conoce como déficit presupuestario.
La emisión de deuda por parte del Tesoro implica la venta de bonos a inversores, lo que afecta los rendimientos y los precios de los bonos en el mercado abierto.
Los bonos de EE. UU. son importantes porque determinan las tasas de interés en la economía y son la forma más popular de garantía en el sistema financiero global.
El secretario del Tesoro, Janet Yellen, ha tenido un impacto significativo en los mercados, especialmente en momentos de crisis.
La Reserva Federal ajusta las tasas de interés de tres maneras:变动 la tasa de interés para préstamos de una noche entre bancos comerciales, compra o venta de bonos de EE. UU. y a través de la orientación adelantada.
La dinámica entre la Reserva Federal y el Tesoro es clave para entender cómo controlan los mercados y sus objetivos divergentes.
El Tesoro ha estado controlando las tasas de interés y los mercados a través de la emisión de bonos a corto plazo y el uso de la facilidad de repo inverso de la Reserva Federal.
La misión abierta del Tesoro es promover la prosperidad económica y asegurar la seguridad financiera de EE. UU., lo que puede interpretarse de diferentes maneras según el poder en el gobierno.
La influencia del Tesoro en los mercados tiene raíces en el gasto gubernamental y la gestión de la deuda para evitar recesiones y apoyar al presidente en funciones.
La política exterior de EE. UU. y las relaciones con países como China son relevantes para la acumulación de bonos de EE. UU. y la estabilidad de los mercados.
La guerra de Ucrania y la congelación de activos rusos por parte de EE. UU. y sus aliados han influido en la percepción de riesgo de los bonos de EE. UU. y otros activos en dólares.
El Tesoro está preparándose para la posible sequía de liquidez y la volatilidad en el mercado de bonos con su primer programa de recomprá de bonos en más de 20 años.
El análisis de la liquidez en los mercados es crucial para entender cómo las acciones del Tesoro y la Reserva Federal afectan los precios de los activos y las tasas de interés.
El Departamento del Tesoro tiene aproximadamente 400 mil millones de dólares disponibles que eventualmente fluirán hacia los mercados, lo que podría estimular la economía antes de las elecciones.
La inversión en energía renovable y otras iniciativas gubernamentales podrían ser una fuente de liquidez adicional que finalmente beneficiaría a los mercados financieros.
El ingreso adicional a los trabajadores y la posibilidad de que el dinero se reinvestiga en activos, como las acciones de empresas listadas, podrían ser factores impulsores para el mercado bursátil.
Transcripts
over the last four years we've been
taught that central banks notably the US
Federal Reserve have been controlling
the markets with their interest rate
decisions well what if I told you that
this isn't true what did you say in fact
it appears that the US Treasury
Department has been in control for at
least the last 2 years this means that
if you want to make money in the markets
you need to know what the treasury is
doing and why that's why today we're
going to explain what the treasury is
how it's been controlling the markets
why it's been doing this and how you can
use this information to get an edge in
investing and
trading the United States Department of
the treasury whose acronym is ironically
usdt like the stable coin is basically
the financial arm of the US government
it handles everything related to taxes
government spending government financing
and even oversees the minting and
printing of physical currency more about
that rabbit hole in the description I
digress anyways the treasury doesn't
just deal with domestic financial
matters as you can see here it has two
divisions dedicated to International
financial affairs one of them includes
the infamous office of foreign assets
control or ofac which deals with
sanctions on enemies of the United
States keep this in mind for later now
the secretary of the treasury is Janet
yelen Janet is a fascinating character
because she used to be the chair of the
Federal Reserve this means that she has
an in-depth knowledge of how the Fed
works Janet is also partisan she is
closely aligned with the current
Democrat Administration this is
important to point out in part because
the treasury's influence over the
markets has its roots in government
spending you see when us politicians
vote to spend trillions of dollars on
stuff it's up to the treasury to figure
out how to finance it and it's up to
Janet to make sure this financing
happens as most of you will know there
are two ways the US government finances
its spending by collecting taxes and
fees and by issuing debt when taxes and
fees aren't enough to cover the costs
the US government will issue debt this
is called a deficit and last year the US
had a two trillion deficit in Practical
terms this means that the treasury had
to issue $2 trillion in debt now here is
where things get interesting but also a
bit complicated so pay close attention
when the treasury issues debt it
essentially sells pieces of paper to
investors containing a promise to pay
them back in the future with interest
these pieces of paper come in different
durations bills are issued for one year
or or less notes are issued for 2 to 10
years and bonds are issued for up to 30
years for the sake of Simplicity will
refer to all these pieces of paper as
bonds where we can anyhow us bonds can
be freely traded on the open market this
makes bonds interesting and that's for
three reasons the first is that the
yield on a bond depends on its price if
a Bond's price Falls its yield Rises and
VI Versa as with all assets the price of
bonds depends on supply and demand as
such the more the US government spends
the higher the supply in other words the
more the US government spends the more
bond prices fall and yields rise
assuming demand stays the same of course
and this ties into the second Reason Why
Us bonds are interesting and that's
because they determine interest rates on
similar durations of debt in the economy
this is because bond yields are seen as
the lowest risk form of Interest the
interest rates on riskier debts are
therefore priced at bond yields Plus
Credit spread this relates to the third
Reason Why Us bonds are interesting and
that's because their assumed safety
makes them the most popular form of
collateral in the Global Financial
system in plain English wealthy
individuals and institutions often use
us bonds as collateral to borrow even
more money or as Savings in other words
a large chunk of the demand for us bonds
comes from overseas around 25% in fact
obviously this demand fluctuates based
on many factors which we'll come back to
in a moment in the meantime if you've
already learned more here than your
teachers taught you in school be sure to
smash that like button to help others
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so ma'am where exactly were you on the
night of the murder I was right here
detective all night long you got anyone
who can back that up you mean an alibi
yeah that's the one no I was all of my
lonesome and what exactly were you doing
all on your lonesome if you don't mind
me asking well keep it under your hat
detective but I was looking through the
coin bu deals page what's a coin Bureau
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what do you mean I mean trading fee
discounts of up to 60% and sign up
bonuses up to $60,000 on some of the
best exchanges holy smokes they got
discounts on Hardware wallets too by any
chance they sure do detective like you
wouldn't believe well that sure sounds
kind of swell lady but just you give me
one good reason why I should believe a
single word you say you don't have to
take my word for a detective take a look
at the link down below and see for
yourself she wasn't kidding those deals
really were something else turns out
that crypto ain't such a bad place after
all you just got to know your way
around okay now that we understand a bit
about the treasury Janet yelen and US
bonds we can start to unpack how and why
the treasury has been controlling the
markets over the last few years this
requires taking a closer look at the
Dynamics between the fed and the
treasury and and what drives them as all
of you will know the FED is tasked with
ensuring the US economy remains robust
and inflation stays moderate by
adjusting interest rates to be exact the
FED aims to ensure that unemployment the
percentage of people actively looking
for work stays at around 4% and that
inflation stays at around 2% for those
unaware raising interest rates causes
inflation to fall but causes
unemployment to rise as it lowers
economic activity by restricting lending
conversely lowering interest rates
causes inflation to rise and
unemployment to fall as it increases
economic activity by encouraging lending
news flash the entire economy runs on
debt but that's a topic for another time
anywh who the FED adjusts interest rates
in three ways by changing the interest
rate for overnight lending between
commercial Banks which affects
short-term interest rates by buying or
selling us bonds via the commercial
Banks which affects long-term interest
rates and through so-called forward
guidance forward guidance includes all
manner of comments and indications that
are meant to inform investors about what
the FED plans to do next the most famous
form of forward guidance is fed chairman
Jerome Powell's speeches which are given
after each interest rate decision these
are treated as gospel now this makes
sense because the markets are
forward-looking put simply the prices of
assets today reflect what investors
believe will happen tomorrow be it
related to interest rates or otherwise
by the time the Catalyst actually comes
the markets have fully priced it in
meaning it has a muted effect on markets
the thing is though that Jerome isn't
the only preacher that investors are
listening to Janet is another and she's
had just as much if not more of an
impact on the markets than Jerome for
example when markets crashed in October
2022 Janet said that Bond liquidity
needed to improve and the markets
recovered and when Banks started to
collapse in March 2023 Janet came out
and effectively said that the treasury
was ready to do whatever it takes to
bail them out the markets subsequently
recovered and in November last year when
interest rates were Rising Janet pushed
them back down with her words
specifically she made a speech saying
that interest rates were high enough and
it was about time they came down
referring directly to the FED shortly
after Jerome spoke after the fed's
meeting and announced that the central
bank was planning to cut rates a dovish
pivot signaling lower rates that duly
got priced in the treasury
simultaneously began issuing more
short-term bonds reducing the supply of
long-term bonds on a relative basis the
fed's signaling of lower short-term
rates and the treasury's issuance of
short-term bonds collectively caused
long-term interest rates to fall
resulting in a market rally on that note
the treasury had already been issuing a
large amount of short-term bonds to
ensure that long-term interest rates
didn't rise too much recall that the
deficit was two trillion dollar in
2023 such a large issuance of bonds
would have high yields to to attract
money from other markets causing them to
crash in this case however the treasury
was able to finance all this short-term
Bond issuance using the fed's overnight
reverse repo facility or
RRP now without getting too technical
the RRP allows investors to earn a yield
similar to the short-term interest rate
set by the fed this is to help transmit
its monetary policy Janet convinced the
investors in the RRP which held over 2
.2 trillion at its peak to invest most
of their Capital into the treasury's
short-term bonds which offered a similar
yield this eliminated the need for the
treasury to raise yields on these bonds
to attract money from other markets such
as stocks in some the treasury has also
been controlling interest rates and this
has been controlling the
markets so now that we understand a bit
about the Dynamics between the fed and
the treasury we can dig deeper into why
the treasury is doing what it's doing
whereas the fed's Mandate is to ensure
that unemployment and inflation remain
stable the treasury has an open-ended
mandate with no numbers according to its
website the treasury's Mandate is to be
quote responsible for promoting economic
prosperity and ensuring the Financial
Security of the United States what's
meant by economic prosperity and
Financial Security you may ask well it's
whatever it means to whoever is in power
now this is where politics comes in and
I'll kick it off with a fun factoid
according to Goldman Sachs quote
incumbent US presidents tend to win
elections except during recessions in
case you missed the memo there's going
to be an election in the US this
November and President Biden is the
incumbent given that Janet is on team
blue it's incumbent on her to ensure
that a recession does not occur before
the election in practice this means
making sure the current Administration
can spend as much as possible while
providing minimal disruption to the bond
markets namely limiting yields on bonds
at the same time though it's incumbent
on Jerome to make sure that inflation
doesn't get too high because of all this
government spending besides the fact
that it's his job to ensure that it
doesn't Jerome also seems to want to
leave a legacy he's also by the way a
republican though it's not clear if he's
partisan regardless the fact of the
matter is that the imperatives of the
treasury and the FED are at odds this
has resulted in a delicate dance that's
been LED mostly by Janet remember that
she used to run the Fed she knows which
levers Jerome needs to pull and it seems
he's been reluctantly pulling
them sorry I just accidentally
visualized Jerome and Janet
dancing in all seriousness it's easy to
forget that it's not just the domestic
issues that determine who will win an
election international issues also have
an effect I'll reiterate that the
treasury has two divisions dedicated to
International Affairs naturally one of
these deals with friends and the other
deals with foes on the friend side it's
believed that Janet has been trying to
convince countries such as China to
continue accumulating us Bonds in case
you forgot most most countries will
invest the US dollars they get from
international trade in US bonds China
and others have been reducing their bond
purchases as you've learned this
reduction of foreign bond purchases has
made it more difficult for the treasury
to issue bonds without raising yields
and raising interest rates by extension
the reason why foreign purchases of us
bonds have declined is because of what
the treasury has been doing on the foe
side when Russia invaded Ukraine in
February 2022 the US and its allies made
what many considered to be a
geopolitical mistake and that was
freezing the assets of various Russian
individuals and institutions this sent a
signal to the world that enemies of the
US and its allies could get similar
treatment in the future the result has
been that many countries have since
started moving away from us bonds and
other US dollar assets and accumulating
other internationally recognized assets
such as gold to be clear this had
already been happening prior to the
freezing of Russian assets but it seems
this accelerated the trend in any case
here's where politics and Janet come
back into the picture the Ukraine war
appears to be popular with Democrat
voters and it's geopolitically
imperative to the US regardless of what
voters think this has put pressure on
Janet to act accordingly and she may be
about to act in a big way back in
February Janet called on the US and its
allies to seize the Russian assets they
had Frozen and send them to Ukraine last
month us politicians passed a bill
giving the treasury the authority to do
this unlocking an estimated $6 billion
of Russian assets Frozen in the US
Financial system although this seizure
hasn't happened yet it's likely that it
will happen due to its popularity with
Democrats and the US government's own
geopolitical imperatives there's just
one problem and that's that this will be
an even bigger watershed moment for
anyone holding us bonds or indeed other
US dollar assets as many macro analysts
have pointed out seizing Russia's assets
and sending them to Ukraine or wherever
else would likely create a risk premium
for us bonds and similar assets put
differently it will likely cause their
prices to drop and yields to rise as
investors Run for the hills or rather to
Gold it seems the treasury is preparing
for this because it recently announced
its first Bond buyback program in over
20 years Yes you heard that right the US
government is going to buy back its own
debt these BuyBacks will start at the
end of this month so that's presumably
when we'll get bond market volatility
this brings me to the big question and
that's how you can use this information
to get an edge in investing and trading
the answer is one word liquidity that is
the amount of money in the markets the
reason why the fed and treasures actions
affect the markets is because they
change liquidity levels this is where
the fed's recent decisions come into
Focus while everyone was focused on the
fed's interest rate decision at its most
recent meeting the bigger news was the
change to its balance sheet in short it
would begin buying more us bonds each
month mainly longer term us bonds
logically this will cause the yields on
those bonds to fall along with interest
rates more importantly it will give
wiggle room for the treasury to issue
more long-term bonds at a time when the
fed's RRP is running out I'll remind you
that the RRP was where the treasury was
getting money from in recent months the
RP has flatlined at around $400 billion
meanwhile the amount of money in the
treasury general account or TGA the US
government's bank account has ballooned
to over 800 billion FYI the treasury has
historically kept around $400 billion in
the TGA for operational expenses what
this means is that the treasury has an
extra $400 billion sitting around that
it can use to juice the economy and the
markets a portion of this will likely go
towards the aforementioned Bond BuyBacks
it's not clear though where the
remainder will go but it doesn't really
matter that's because all this money
will eventually find its way into the
markets in the case of bond BuyBacks the
investors who have the bonds being
bought back will have money they can
spend elsewhere these investors will
either put their money into other assets
like stocks which will cause them to
rise or if they put the money back into
bonds instead stocks will still rise
because investing in other bonds will
cause their yields to fall which will
cause interest rates to fall and boost
economic activity this lowering in
yields will also make bonds less
attractive causing Capital outflow into
other assets with higher yields in the
case of any other spending the treasury
does into the economy this Capital will
likewise eventually find its way back
into the markets for example suppose it
gives a few billion to some Renewable
Energy company as part of the
administration's trillion dollar
ridiculously titled inflation reduction
act this will allow this Renewable
Energy company to hire workers these
workers will spend their money on goods
and services owned by publicly listed
companies these publicly listed
companies will take this capital and buy
back their own stocks or just hand the
money to their Executives who will buy
other stocks speaking of which this is
why Universal basic income or Ubi will
never work any money that's handed out
to people in need will be spent on goods
and services that means it gets funneled
right back to the top and that money
will be used by the rich to invest in
assets like real estate making said
assets ever more unaffordable but anyway
back to the topic at hand the key
takeaway here is that the treasury has
$400 billion in its back pocket that
will eventually find its way into the
markets this money will likely be spent
before the election to boost the economy
and reduce the risk of a recession
Janet's gift to Biden in the short term
However the fact that the FED isn't
lowering short-term rates and won't
begin its balance sheet Shenanigans
until June means that liquidity will
likely be neutral to negative until then
and don't forget that the treasury's
bond BuyBacks won't begin until later
this month either the consequence could
be a few weeks of sluggish price action
and some would say that we're already
seeing this the caveat though is that
the blackout period for stock BuyBacks
ended last Monday to bring you up to
speed the blackout period prevents stock
BuyBacks around weeks when quarterly
earnings come out as it so happens Apple
recently announced the largest stock
buyback in history a whopping $110
billion it's safe to say that this will
be a huge Tailwind for stocks and come
to think of it it could be why stocks
have been rallying while cryptos on the
other hand have been falling behind this
though should change as overall
liquidity improves according to macro
analyst Michael how crypto lags
liquidity by about 6 weeks which means
that it may not start to catch up until
sometime in Late July or even August
this assumes that there's no additional
liquid
coming from other sources because
someone somewhere is always printing
money and that's all for today's video
folks so if you found it informative
smash that like button to let us know if
you want to stay informed subscribe to
the channel and ping that notification
Bell and if you want to help inform
others about what the treasury has been
up to be sure to share this video with
them and with all that said Thank thank
you so much for watching and I'll see
you in the next one this is guy over and
out
[Music]
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