Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers | Steven Pinker

Summary

In this thought-provoking talk, the speaker challenges the pessimistic view of the modern world by presenting data-driven evidence of human progress. Despite troubling headlines, statistics show significant improvements in health, safety, education, and overall well-being over the last few decades. The speaker argues that while the world faces challenges like climate change and political unrest, progress is real, driven by human ingenuity and the principles of reason and science. The message is clear: while not perfect, the trajectory of human civilization is one of improvement, and we must focus on solving problems rather than succumbing to fatalism.

Takeaways

• 😀 The modern world is often perceived negatively due to media focus on crises, but this perception is influenced by cognitive biases and the nature of journalism.
• 😀 While people long for a 'better' past, objective data shows that human well-being has improved significantly over time.
• 😀 The year 2016 was widely deemed the 'Worst Year Ever,' but in reality, many indicators of global well-being are better than in the past.
• 😀 Progress is measurable, and the decline in violence, poverty, and environmental harm over the last few decades is substantial.
• 😀 Life expectancy has more than doubled over the last 250 years, and child mortality has decreased dramatically across the globe.
• 😀 The global rate of extreme poverty has fallen from 90% to under 10% in the last 200 years.
• 😀 Despite recent challenges, wars have become fewer and less deadly, and the last major power war occurred over 65 years ago.
• 😀 Today, two-thirds of the world’s population live in democracies, which is a higher percentage than ever before.
• 😀 Safety has significantly improved: people are far less likely to die in car crashes, from natural disasters, or even from lightning strikes.
• 😀 Knowledge and education have expanded, with global literacy rising and work hours declining, leading to greater leisure time for individuals.
• 😀 Progress is not inevitable, but it is the result of human efforts driven by reason and science to improve well-being, and solutions to current problems should be pursued with the same mindset.

Q & A

What does the speaker argue about people's perception of the world in the 21st century?

The speaker argues that people tend to view the world negatively, often comparing current issues like shootings, inequality, and war to an idealized past. However, he suggests this view is misleading and driven by poor memory of past challenges.

What evidence does the speaker present to argue that the world is improving over time?

The speaker presents data showing a decline in homicide rates, poverty, pollution, and wars, while life expectancy has increased. He compares current statistics to those from 30 years ago, highlighting significant progress in various areas such as health, safety, and prosperity.

What is the speaker's perspective on intellectuals and the concept of progress?

The speaker suggests that intellectuals, particularly those who call themselves progressive, often oppose the idea of progress, viewing it as an outdated belief. He emphasizes that intellectuals tend to focus on the negatives and resist acknowledging the improvements humanity has made.

How does the speaker define 'progress'?

The speaker defines progress as measurable improvement in human well-being across aspects like life, health, sustenance, prosperity, peace, freedom, safety, knowledge, leisure, and happiness. He stresses that progress is not a matter of faith or optimism, but a testable hypothesis based on data.

What is the speaker's stance on pessimism, especially in relation to the progress humanity has made?

The speaker argues that while pessimism can help safeguard against complacency, excessive pessimism can lead to fatalism or radicalism. He believes it's essential to recognize both the suffering in the world and the progress made in alleviating it.

How does the speaker address the role of the media in shaping perceptions of the world?

The speaker notes that media outlets often focus on negative news and sensational stories, which can skew the public's perception of reality. This is compounded by cognitive biases, like the availability heuristic, which leads people to overestimate the frequency of negative events.

What historical changes does the speaker highlight to demonstrate the improvement in human well-being?

The speaker highlights several historical changes, such as the dramatic decrease in child mortality, the reduction in famine, the rise of democracy, and the decline in violence. He also points to significant progress in areas like education, life expectancy, and safety.

What does the speaker mean when he says, 'progress is not inevitable'?

The speaker means that progress is not a guaranteed outcome but the result of human effort and problem-solving. He acknowledges that while progress has been made, challenges remain, and solutions to new problems must be actively pursued.

Why does the speaker believe that the Enlightenment ideals are important for progress?

The speaker believes that Enlightenment ideals, such as the application of reason, science, and skepticism of authority, have been essential for progress. These principles allow for continuous problem-solving and the improvement of human well-being.

What is the speaker's view on the future of progress and the role of humanity in shaping it?

The speaker is optimistic about the future of progress, emphasizing that humanity has the potential to continue improving by applying knowledge to enhance human flourishing. He acknowledges that challenges remain, but the pursuit of solutions can lead to a better world.