Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Dolar terhadap Daya Beli Masyarakat: Analisis Data Terbaru Tahun 2021-2023

Summary

In this video, Sis Nurhik from Group 7 explains how the US dollar exchange rate affects the purchasing power of Indonesian society from 2021 to 2023. Using data from Bank Indonesia and Statistics Indonesia, she demonstrates how to process and analyze the data in Excel. The analysis shows a strong positive relationship between the exchange rate and GDP per capita, with significant statistical findings. The regression model reveals that changes in the exchange rate impact GDP per capita and, consequently, the purchasing power of the population. This provides valuable insights into the economic influence of currency fluctuations.

Takeaways

• 😀 The speaker, Sis Nurhik, from Group 7, presents an analysis on the impact of the dollar exchange rate on the purchasing power of society from 2021 to 2023.
• 😀 The data sources include the dollar-to-rupiah exchange rate from Bank Indonesia and per capita GDP data from Badan Pusat Statistik.
• 😀 Excel is used to process the data and perform regression analysis to examine the relationship between the exchange rate and purchasing power.
• 😀 The regression analysis shows a strong positive relationship between the dollar exchange rate and purchasing power, with a Multi R value of 0.71.
• 😀 ANOVA results indicate that the overall regression model is statistically significant, with a very small significance F value (8.19604 * 10^-7).
• 😀 The regression coefficients are divided into the intercept (-227,035,392) and the dollar exchange rate coefficient (121,831.81).
• 😀 The intercept value (-227,035,392) represents the constant in the regression equation but does not have a direct meaningful interpretation in this context.
• 😀 The dollar exchange rate coefficient (121,831.81) suggests that for every unit increase in the exchange rate, per capita GDP (and thus purchasing power) increases by 121,831.81.
• 😀 The t-statistic of 6.0165 and the p-value of 8.19604 * 10^-7 confirm that the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and purchasing power is statistically significant.
• 😀 The analysis concludes that the dollar exchange rate significantly affects purchasing power, explaining approximately 51.6% of the variation in per capita GDP.

Q & A

What is the main objective of the video?

The main objective of the video is to explain how to process and analyze data related to the impact of the exchange rate of the US dollar on the purchasing power of the public in Indonesia from 2021 to 2023 using Excel.

What data sources are used in the analysis?

The two data sources used are the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah from Bank Indonesia and the purchasing power of the public, measured by GDP per capita, from the Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia.

What tool is used to analyze the data?

The data is analyzed using Microsoft Excel, particularly using regression analysis to explore the relationship between the exchange rate and purchasing power.

What is the significance of the 'Multi R' value in the regression analysis?

The 'Multi R' value of 0.71 indicates a strong positive correlation between the exchange rate (X variable) and purchasing power (Y variable), with values closer to 1 showing a stronger positive relationship.

What does the 'Significance F' value in the ANOVA table represent?

The 'Significance F' value of 8.19604 * 10^-7 is the p-value for the overall regression model. A very small p-value (less than 0.05) indicates that the regression model is statistically significant.

What does the intercept value of the regression model represent?

The intercept value of -227,035.392 represents the predicted value of purchasing power (Y) when the exchange rate (X) is 0. Although it might not have a direct meaning in this context, it is important for building the regression equation.

How is the coefficient for the exchange rate variable interpreted?

The coefficient for the exchange rate variable (121,831.181) indicates that for every 1-unit increase in the exchange rate, the purchasing power (GDP per capita) is expected to increase by 121,831.181 units.

What does the p-value for the exchange rate variable suggest?

The p-value for the exchange rate variable (X variable) is very small (8.19604 * 10^-7), which is less than the 0.05 threshold. This suggests that the exchange rate has a statistically significant effect on the purchasing power (GDP per capita).

What is the meaning of the t-statistic value in the regression output?

The t-statistic value of 6.0165 indicates how much the coefficient for the exchange rate variable differs from 0. A value greater than 2 (either positive or negative) shows that the coefficient is statistically significant, which is the case here.

What is the overall conclusion of the analysis presented in the video?

The analysis concludes that the exchange rate (as the independent variable) significantly influences the purchasing power (GDP per capita, as the dependent variable). About 51.6% of the variation in purchasing power can be explained by the exchange rate, indicating a strong and statistically significant relationship.