Blow Off Top 🔥 #tsla #btc #nke
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the speaker discusses the Federal Reserve's recent pivot from focusing on inflation to addressing unemployment, potentially leading to a recession. He outlines key job reports due this week, including JOLTS, ADP employment, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls. Despite concerns, the speaker remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting the market may experience a bullish trend, particularly in big tech stocks like Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia. He emphasizes the possibility of market manipulation during an election year and shares insights on cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting further growth.
Takeaways
- 💼 The Federal Reserve (FED) pivoted from focusing on inflation to addressing unemployment, which may lead to a major recession.
- 📉 The FED has moved from tightening the economy to easing policies, aiming to stimulate hiring and growth.
- 📊 Four key jobs reports are expected this week, including JOLTS, ADP employment report, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls, which will influence market reactions.
- 📈 A bullish market trend may occur if the jobs data aligns with market expectations, despite concerns about potential manipulation due to election year influences.
- 🤔 The speaker remains cautiously optimistic about a potential market rally but is skeptical of the reliability of government employment data, especially in an election year.
- 💡 There is a belief that powerful market forces could manipulate job data to influence market behavior leading up to the election.
- 🚀 The speaker is optimistic about crypto, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting a significant upward move after a period of consolidation.
- 👟 Nike's earnings report is anticipated, but the speaker is not optimistic about its long-term recovery, despite potential short-term gains.
- 📈 The speaker is bullish on Amazon and Nvidia, believing they could rise significantly if favorable jobs data is released, with potential targets above $200 for Amazon.
- 🚗 Tesla is highlighted as a key stock, with potential to reach new highs if it breaks out of a significant technical pattern, possibly reaching $380 or even all-time highs.
Q & A
What does the 'Fed pivot' refer to in this context?
-The 'Fed pivot' refers to the Federal Reserve shifting its focus from combating inflation to addressing unemployment and the potential of a major recession. It indicates a move from tightening the economy to stimulating growth by encouraging hiring and economic activity.
Why is there concern about the timing of the Fed's pivot?
-The concern about the timing of the Fed's pivot arises because some believe it may have come too late. Critics argue the Fed should have made this shift earlier, possibly in July, and that waiting until September may have worsened the economic situation.
What are the key economic data reports coming this week, and why are they important?
-This week, key reports include the JOLTS report (job openings), ADP employment report, jobless claims, and the non-farm payrolls. These reports are crucial because they provide insights into job creation, unemployment, and wages, which will influence market expectations and the Fed’s actions.
What is the speaker's perspective on how the employment data could affect the market?
-The speaker believes that despite technical concerns, the market may continue in a bullish trend. He speculates that in an election year, powerful figures could influence unemployment data to push the market higher, potentially setting up for a blowoff top later in the year.
Why does the speaker express cynicism regarding the reliability of employment data?
-The speaker is cynical because he believes the unemployment numbers can be manipulated for political or market purposes, especially during an election year. He suggests that the numbers could be 'fluffed' to maintain a bullish market and avoid a crash before the election.
What is the speaker's investment strategy in light of this week's data reports?
-The speaker plans to go in light, waiting for the market to reveal its direction before making significant moves. He prefers to wait for confirmation from the market rather than trying to predict its immediate behavior, reflecting a cautious approach to his investments.
What does the speaker say about the crypto market, specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum?
-The speaker is bullish on both Bitcoin and Ethereum. He believes Bitcoin is poised for a major move after consolidating, and he is particularly interested in Ethereum, considering it undervalued and ready for a significant breakout. He has taken an initial position in Ethereum, which he plans to grow.
Why is the speaker hesitant about investing in Nike before its earnings report?
-The speaker is hesitant to invest in Nike because he feels the company is still recovering from a long-term decline. While it has come off its lows, the fundamentals suggest a longer recovery period, making it less attractive as an earnings play. He is watching for potential short opportunities depending on the earnings outcome.
Which stocks is the speaker particularly interested in, and why?
-The speaker is particularly interested in Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia. He believes these stocks are setting up for potential bullish moves. Specifically, he likes Amazon's chart, believes Tesla could reach all-time highs, and sees Nvidia as a strong performer in the tech sector.
What does the speaker expect from Tesla's price movement, based on its current chart patterns?
-The speaker expects Tesla to potentially break out of its current cup-and-handle pattern, which could lead to a price target of $380. He believes Tesla is at a crucial deciding point, with the potential to reverse back to all-time highs if the market remains favorable.
Outlines
🔄 The Fed’s Pivot: From Inflation to Unemployment
In this segment, the speaker explains the Federal Reserve’s recent shift from focusing on inflation to tackling unemployment, which could potentially lead to a recession. This change involves transitioning from tightening the economy to easing, encouraging corporate growth and hiring. The speaker reflects on whether the Fed's decision to wait until September, rather than pivoting in July, was a mistake. Upcoming economic reports on jobs and unemployment this week will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the economy, with the potential for either a soft landing or a severe downturn.
📈 Market Speculation Amid Employment Data
The speaker provides an overview of the key employment data releases expected throughout the week, starting with the JOLTS report, ADP employment report, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls. These reports are vital in assessing the strength of the labor market. Although there are concerns about unemployment rates, the speaker suggests that wage growth could still support economic growth. However, the speaker expresses a cynical view that the data could be manipulated due to the upcoming elections, potentially setting up a short-term market rally before a more significant downturn.
📊 Employment Data and Election-Year Market Movements
This paragraph delves into the idea that the employment data could be influenced by political factors due to the election year. The speaker believes that powerful entities may manipulate unemployment data to reflect positive outcomes, thereby pushing the market higher. The speaker leans towards the view that this could lead to a 'blowoff top,' where the market experiences a rapid increase before a potential decline. Despite these speculations, the speaker intends to remain cautious, entering the market only after data is released and trends become clear.
💰 Crypto Insights: Bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum
Shifting to cryptocurrency, the speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin and Ethereum. While warning about a recent peak and pullback, the speaker remains optimistic, suggesting that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised for significant growth. Ethereum, in particular, is highlighted as undervalued, with the speaker revealing plans to increase their investment to six figures. The speaker also advises taking profits when necessary, emphasizing a disciplined approach to trading. Upcoming live events and deep dives into crypto markets are mentioned, signaling future discussions on this topic.
👟 Nike’s Earnings and a Focus on Big Tech Stocks
In this segment, the speaker discusses upcoming earnings reports, particularly Nike, and expresses skepticism about its long-term recovery. Despite being beaten down, Nike’s fundamentals suggest it may struggle for years, and the speaker is not optimistic about its performance in the short term. The focus then shifts to big tech stocks, notably Amazon, Tesla, and Nvidia. The speaker is adding to positions in Amazon and Nvidia, citing positive analyst recommendations and higher price targets. Concerns about supply chain disruptions for Amazon are noted, but the speaker believes the stock is poised for a potential upward move.
📈 Amazon's Technical Analysis and Future Outlook
This paragraph dives into the technical analysis of Amazon's stock performance. The speaker breaks down recent price movements, pointing out a potential bullish setup despite concerning signals on the MACD indicator. A potential channel breakout and the opportunity for Amazon to reach new highs around $205 are discussed. The speaker also considers the possibility of a pullback before a further rally, and a bullish crossover on the weekly chart could signal a major price rise. Overall, the speaker remains optimistic, anticipating a potential blowoff top for Amazon.
🚀 Big Tech: Tesla, Nvidia, and Market Momentum
The speaker reflects on past successful calls with Nvidia and Tesla, emphasizing that large, well-thought-out trades often yield the highest returns. Tesla’s recent price movements are analyzed, with the speaker highlighting a potential breakout to all-time highs based on a 'cup and handle' formation. A bullish scenario is presented, suggesting that Tesla could reach $380 if the breakout is confirmed. The speaker advocates patience and discipline, advising the use of stop losses to manage risk while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on Tesla.
📊 Tesla's Long-Term Potential and Market Risks
This segment further explores Tesla’s potential price reversal, suggesting that the stock could return to all-time highs if the technical patterns play out. The speaker discusses the significance of a weekly chart breakout and advises holding Tesla to capitalize on the potential upside. The narrative also touches on other electric vehicle stocks like Nio, which has shown recent signs of life. Despite this, the speaker prefers Tesla, believing it to be the best-performing stock in the EV sector. The segment concludes with an invitation to the speaker’s Discord community for deeper discussions on trading and investing.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡FED Pivot
💡Inflation
💡Unemployment
💡Recession
💡Jobs Data Reports
💡Election Year
💡Market Rally
💡Non-farm Payrolls
💡Wage Reports
💡Bullish Trend
Highlights
The Federal Reserve (FED) has pivoted from focusing on inflation to addressing unemployment, signaling a shift in economic priorities.
The pivot suggests a move from tightening economic measures to easing, aiming to stimulate corporate growth and hiring.
There’s a debate on whether the FED’s pivot was too late, with some arguing it should have occurred in July instead of September.
Key data reports this week, including the JOLTS report, ADP employment report, jobless claims, and non-farm payrolls, will influence market reactions.
Non-farm payrolls report, expected on October 4th, is crucial as it is predicted to show a rise in jobs and stable unemployment, which could drive market sentiment.
Wage reports are also critical; strong wages can offset job losses, keeping the economy afloat.
The speaker expresses skepticism about the reliability of employment data, especially in an election year, suggesting potential manipulation by market makers.
Despite technical concerns in the charts, the speaker believes there may be a bullish trend by the end of the week, driven by market forces and election-year dynamics.
Bitcoin and crypto markets are anticipated to make a significant move after a consolidation period, with the speaker bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The speaker is particularly interested in Ethereum, having recently taken a position and planning to grow it to a six-figure investment.
Upcoming earnings for Nike are viewed with caution, with the speaker not expecting strong results but seeing potential for future shorting opportunities.
The speaker is bullish on Amazon and Nvidia, citing strong price targets from analysts despite some negative news around Amazon.
Tesla is highlighted as a stock that could see a significant breakout, with a potential price target of $380 if technical patterns hold.
Tesla’s momentum is compared to other big tech stocks, with the speaker confident that it may return to all-time highs.
The speaker advises cautious optimism in the market, recommending a wait-and-see approach until key data is released, while still maintaining positions in select big tech stocks.
Transcripts
all right you guys know that the FED
pivoted but I don't know that everybody
really understands exactly what that
means just yet it means that he has
moved from one problem to another he's
moved from thinking his biggest concern
is inflation to now realizing that his
biggest concern may be unemployment
which would lead to a major recession so
he has moved away from tightening and
putting a break on the economy to easing
trying to get things moving again and to
stimulate corporations to hire and to
grow that's what the big pivot was now
the question is whether or not he was
too late should he have pivoted in July
was he wrong to have waited till
September did he give a 50 basis point
cut because he was scared of what he saw
coming around the corner well around the
corner is this week we've got four data
reports on jobs and unemployment and
payroll and these are the things that
the Market's going to look at very
carefully to assess whether the FED has
truly given us a soft Landing or it's
the Tipping Point for a huge recession
and a slowing economy now I'm going to
give you my opinion today and as I was
reflecting on what I'm sharing with you
today I thought you guys are getting
cynical Josh today and I'm going to lay
out for you why but let's just go over
which data reports we're waiting for and
then I'm going to explain to you why I
think we may continue in a bullish Trend
by the end of this week now you say well
bullish Josh I mean things are not
looking that great uh aren't you scared
yes I have concerns there's technical
concerns in a lot of the charts I've
talked about them in the last couple of
videos that I've made but I'm going to
give you my reason why there may be a
catalyst or there may be a reason to
Trump all of those technical concerns
and we're going to fall back on the fact
that it's an election year okay so let's
talk about the jobs reports that we're
getting this week and then I'll give you
guys my opinion starting things off
tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. we're getting the
jolts report that's the new job openings
that occur each and every month now
following that on Wednesday we get the
ADP employment report that comes out
pre-market at 8:15 Eastern Standard Time
and if you are a doubter of the
employment reports that we're getting
from the federal government this is the
one that would be the most interest to
you and then we've got jobless claims on
Thursday at 8:30 a.m. this is the third
jobs report that we've got this week and
this is going to be jobless claims so
people who are filing to receive
unemployment new unemployment claims
this week that's what we're going to be
getting Thursday but the big one that
the Market's really going to react upon
because this is the one that drives the
data is the non-farm payrolls that we
get out Friday October 4th now in that
report jobs are actually expected to
rise we're we're actually expecting to
see an a tick up and an increase in jobs
added to the economy we're actually
expecting to see unemployment rate stay
flat so we're not looking for a major
change there we're looking for that to
hold steady and we're also going to get
wage reports now we can afford to lose
some jobs we can afford to not add jobs
as long as the wage Factor continues to
show strength because even if some folks
are unemployed if the folks who are
working can afford to keep this economy
afat and they're not afraid to spend
money well then the economy stocks can
continue to grow and can continue to go
higher those are the things that we're
watching for this week and so what why
did I say I was cynical well because is
the data besides the ADP report how
reliable is it if the if the market
makers and those who control and pull
the strings in this country want to tell
us that unemployment remained flat well
they can tell us that this week and they
can cause the markets to Rally matter of
fact if they wanted to come out and say
that uh unemployment shrunk and people
got jobs and there's new jobs coming on
the market they could fluff those
numbers as well to push the economy pre
the election right now if they don't
like the candidate or they want to force
a crash later well then they'll just
revise the numbers giving correct data
to show that things have changed and so
I would say that now forgive me if I've
gotten too cynical for you guys but I
think it's just too easy this last uh
stretch before the election to make
those unemployment numbers reflect
whatever it is that the market makers
want them to reflect now what that could
be setting up for is the blowoff top off
of an incredible run and the Elation
that many people would be feeling seeing
their portfolios rise thinking to
themselves as sky is not falling in this
economy that things are okay and may
maybe a major change isn't needed and so
all of that causes me to think that we
might not be crashing this week uh I'm
leaning towards the fact that the
numbers can be manipulated because we're
in an election year and there's very
powerful people that pull the strings in
this country and they're the ones who
put people into office or take people
out of office so it's going to be very
interesting to see how the market acts
this week I'm going to lean towards the
idea that we're getting ready to set up
for an incredible run that all the
employment data is going to come in the
way the market makers want it to and we
could be setting up for the blowoff top
that we've been slowly moving towards
all of 2023 and 2024 just my opinion now
having said all of that I'm going in
light until I get the data I'm going in
light till I see the Market's reaction
I'm not trying to get ahead or in front
of the train I'm waiting for the train
to stop I will get on at my leisurely
Pace I will take my seat buckle myself
in order a drink and I will take off to
the next stop with it I'm not going to
try to jump on the fast moving train I'm
going to wait until the market decides
what it wants to do that's how I see the
markets today I hope you guys found that
interesting I'd love to know how you see
the markets let me know in the comment
section this is the stocks with Josh
show I appreciate you guys hit the like
say hi in the comments watch out for
scammers that pretend to be me if
something doesn't feel right it probably
isn't me uh but if you want to connect
with me more you can do it in the stocks
with Josh Discord the chart goat
University where we're doing a 3K to 10K
Challenge and I'm dropping education
pieces we entered another trade today on
Amazon and this is one of the stocks
that I'm going to talk to you guys about
today we're also keeping an eye on a
number of other plays and in addition to
that I've got to talk briefly about
what's going on with crypto because in
my last video I believe it was Friday I
warned that we were peing and likely
needed to cool off for a moment before
going higher now my bias is that we're
gonna scream higher on bitcoin and
crypto and that we're getting just a
momentary pullback to support so that we
can go go higher I want to remind you
guys that Bitcoin typically consolidates
for 200 days and then it makes a major
move we've gotten there we've done that
and now we're in the stage of getting a
major move now if you uh heed my caution
going into this weekend you would have
taken profits and you would have been
selling at the top of your favorite
cryptos and your favorite altcoins I did
and locked in a ton of money now I'm
anxious and eager to get back back in so
I'm watching it very carefully guys I'm
going to shout out ethereum because
lately I've become more interested in
ethereum it would take very little for
ethereum to take off like a rocket I'm
very interested in ethereum right now
and I took a initial position which I'm
going to grow to six figures very soon
I'm giving everybody the heads up that
I'm bullish on ethereum right now now I
could be wrong this is a risk position
but I think it's just beat down and I
think when
when something gets beat down like this
and there's nothing wrong with the
project and it's still uh sort of the
backbone of a lot of
cryptocurrencies it's around that time
that I begin to think okay well it's
something that I want to buy more of so
just wanted to throw that out there not
tomorrow I'm gonna be having uh some
folks on the show we're going to do a
live and a deeper dive and we're going
to chart some cryptos for you guys so
don't miss tomorrow's live okay let's
talk a little bit about earnings we've
got an earnings tomorrow before the
Market opens and it's Nike and I'm just
going to come right out and tell you
guys that I don't love it I would have
called it as an earnings play at least a
Lotto Play small position size because
it has been beat down and that means
that the options uh could be pretty
profitable I didn't I took the time to
analyze Nike and I just came across too
many people that understand the
fundamentals of Nike better than me and
they more or less said that it's going
to take years for them to recover so
it's come up off of its lows it came up
off of its lows it there's room for it
to continue to fall so I'm not touching
Nike for tomorrow now many analysts have
maintained their price Target on Nike at
$85 and it's currently trading at 88 and
so that's not a good setup going into
earnings so what I'm going to be doing
is I'm going to be watching the earnings
because if it doesn't go well then I
think there's going to be more
opportunity to potentially short Nike
now I could be wrong let's see how Nike
goes tomorrow if you're in Nike if
you're long nike I wish you the best I
hope it takes off like a rocket and you
make hundreds of percent on your
Investments And Trades okay let's talk
about the trade that I am interested in
right now and that's Amazon and Tesla
and Nvidia I actually like a lot of big
Tech right now H I also like meta but
the ones that I'm most interested in
right now that are new positions for me
so positions that I'm currently adding
to or growing are Amazon and Nvidia
Tesla I've got my bags packed meta I
bought a couple weeks ago and so I'm
more interested right now in Amazon and
Nvidia and today we're going to be
specifically talking about Amazon and
what I like about the charts now we are
seeing some fud in the news but there's
a number of companies that came out and
have maintained Amazon as a buy and
given it a higher price target of around
$265 is one of the higher price targets
that trust Securities gave it today
caner Fitzgerald maintained their $230
price Target and maintained them as a
buy so I think that there are
interesting negative news stories
circulating Amazon right now one of them
is the potential strike at the ports
which could cause disruption to Goods uh
coming into the holiday season and
obviously affect Amazon's profitability
but at the moment the chart is setting
up that if we get a good uh jobs data
this week I think Amazon could rip it
already had a massive dip so there was
already this moment of profit taking and
we might actually be making another wave
higher all the way above 200 let me show
you that chart real quick okay here's
how we're set up right now and in some
cases you would look at this macd and
see that it's rolling over and it would
be a pretty bad warning sign that this
could actually be the beginning of a
breakdown right in momentum similar to
what we saw here once we had a cross
under on the macd there it led to this
huge price fall right and so right off
the bat we're looking at the daily time
frame you know you might say Josh you
got to be crazy to be interested in
Amazon well let's go through a couple
things that are just a little bit
different right now than they were when
we got this other crossover first off
I've traded the macd for a long time and
you can see that the macd just continue
to come along and bounce off of this
line and go higher and higher right so
we don't know that we're going to get
this crossover just yet second of all
it's very consistent that we get these
channels that eventually get broken let
me just kind of take you over to this
one the last time we had this major
price breakdown we actually uh had two
patterns that were warning us one was
this ascending wed which was very
bearish that preceded this move here the
second was this ascending Channel which
preceded this gap down and move here
well so even if we're going to go
lower in my mind we've got to actually
go higher before we do that and I could
easily see us getting back to 190 and
creating this ascending wedge before
going lower if that's ultimately what
the stock wants to do but there's also
the opportunity of a potential bounce
here I do believe that if we can uh find
support at the moment here at this
18440 I believe there's actually
opportunity for us to move all the way
up to this 205 and even top touch the
top of this uh ascending resistance line
putting the stock between 205 and 208
and this is sort of the blow off top
that I'm looking for in Amazon now if we
shift from this daily view to this
weekly view I want to point out that the
story changes a little bit and what you
see is that on the weekly time frame
we're setting up for a potential bullish
crossover and we're still in Bull
territory and we have been for a very
long time and so if we get this
crossover on the weekly which is sort of
bent down a little bit and that's why
we're seeing that problem on The Daily
but if this actually begins to move up
based on good Catalyst leading us into
our last phase before the election this
could actually be the blowoff top this
crossover on the signal line is actually
when we got this in the past it actually
is what led to this Monumental move up
in price and we could be getting ready
to get the exact same thing later on we
could see this head and shoulders play
out of momentum but but if we got that
crossover on the weekly we would
absolutely get to 205 or 208 or even
much higher you know as I reflect back
on the last quarter I have given
extremely clear and accurate guidance on
some very big plays and I've reminded
you that it's the big plays that are
well thought out with your highest
amount of capital that ultimately will
be your largest winners not your scalp
trades that you do in the morning okay
those are typically just going to be
picking up little pieces along the way
building small amounts of money over the
course of time it's your big plays that
are going to be the most profitable now
we have called on this channel Nvidia
perfectly ran it all the way up and then
when it came down and people were saying
the runup was over called it a buy again
we ran up again we've done the exact
same thing with Tesla and people were
selling at 240 248 250 5
n261 and I kept telling them hold on
pump the breaks on selling Tesla okay
because we have a great Catalyst ahead
of us we're moving into an environment
that could be a secondary Catalyst good
data with an easing fed right sort of a
goldilock environment and Tesla's not
breaking down hm who told you that Tesla
wouldn't break down I told you that
Tesla wouldn't break down let's go look
at at the charts because this could be
setting up for a move that people are
not expecting and I don't want you guys
to come tardy to the party I don't want
you to ask me should I get in it you
know after the moves occurred that's
when everybody on the news is going to
be pumping it up now I'm not advocating
not using a stop loss one of my
disciplines is to have a stop loss and
I've got a stop loss set right now on
all of these plays that I'm talking to
you about and I take profit I told you
about taking profit with Bitcoin even
when it's hard to do but not taking
Profit just yet on Tesla let's go look
at that chart okay we've talked about
this talked about it way back here
cup and handle okay now we're right at
the line of getting above this cup and
handle the cup and handle price is
around 261 we still have time ahead of
us but here's the point I want to make
today and I've been making this point
I'm just going to make it again you take
the low of the cup okay to the
neckline and you place that at the
potential breakout
Zone and that tells you where the stock
could possibly go and the number I just
want you guys to be aware of is back to
380 if we actually got a confirmation of
a breakout of this cup and handle and we
got that Above This 261 so the price
explodes even if we consolidate here for
a little while it's ultimately telling
us that Tesla's entered into a new phase
with a potential price target of 380 and
let me talk to you about why that's so
significant let's jump to the weekly
candles because it's actually pointing
potentially to a total and complete
price reversal taking us back to
all-time highs that's why it's
interesting now do we know that's going
to happen no we don't know that but if
you're ever going to take risk on TES to
be honest with you it would have been in
this last 30 60 90 days because Tesla is
been slowly building back its momentum
to a potential breakout back to all-time
highs Tesla has been the worst
performing big tech company but it's
potentially getting ready to catch up
with its peers or at least we're at the
deciding line and so I'm definitely
going to be holding Tesla and not
selling it in any form of a panic until
I see what it does with this cup line
and this historic line of resistance
again love to hear from you guys in the
comment section if you are not touching
Tesla even Neo has come back to life
even Neo's hitting the radar of Interest
now I'm not buying any Neo because I
like to be in the best performing stock
in a sector and I personally believe
that for EVS that's Tesla but if you've
made some money this week on Neo let me
know in the chat let me know in the
comment section if you've gotten excited
about being a Neo holder again I'm
excited about holding Tesla for now all
right guys that wraps it up for me today
hit me up over in the stocks with Josh
Discord come join us over there it's not
just me it's me and the crowned Traders
there's a number of very talented
investors over there you can come trade
with us you can learn to chart and you
can be in a great positive Community
each and every day I'll leave a link in
the top pin comment peace and blessings
hit the like and the subscribe let's see
what these markets do this week
[Music]
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