Future Thinking | Jim Davies | TEDxCarletonUniversity

Summary

In this talk, the speaker explores the concept of future thinking and how humans often make errors when predicting future events. They discuss how people imagine the future with fewer details than the past and how this leads to biases, like overcommitting or underestimating challenges. The speaker also highlights how we overestimate future emotional responses, and how much of our happiness is genetically determined, not situational. The talk concludes by encouraging people to focus on what they can control and take better care of their future selves.

Takeaways

• 💭 Humans have the unique ability to imagine future events, a skill not found in other animals.
• ⏳ People perceive time differently. Some feel like they move through time, while others see time moving past them.
• 🔍 We tend to remember past events with more detail than we imagine future events, which often appear more generic and vague.
• ⛺ When we imagine future activities like camping, we often overlook the less pleasant details or challenges that may arise.
• 📅 We chronically underestimate how long tasks will take in the future, a phenomenon known as the 'planning bias'.
• 📈 Future-oriented individuals are more likely to take care of their future selves, such as by saving money and making healthier choices.
• 🔮 People often overestimate the emotional impact of future events, whether good or bad, and don't anticipate how quickly they'll adjust.
• 🌞 Factors like weather don't have a significant long-term impact on happiness, and much of our happiness is genetically predetermined.
• 🧘 Focusing on material or external factors like weight or promotions doesn't contribute as much to happiness as activities like exercise, meditation, and social interactions.
• 🙌 Your future self is still you, so it's important to plan and take care of yourself in a realistic and thoughtful way.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the speaker's presentation?

The speaker's presentation is focused on future thinking, how humans think about the future, and the common mistakes we make when planning or predicting future events.

How do people generally imagine the future compared to the past?

People tend to imagine the future in a more vague and generic way, while they recall the past with more specific details. Even when imagining a future event like a car accident, people include fewer details than when imagining a similar event that happened in the past.

What is the planning bias, and how does it affect people's time management?

The planning bias refers to the tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take because people don't imagine all the potential obstacles. This leads to overcommitment and unrealistic expectations about time.

Why do people tend to overcommit when planning for the distant future?

People overcommit to future tasks because the distant future often appears empty in their minds, leading them to think they will have more free time than they actually will. They fail to anticipate that they will be just as busy in the future as they are now.

How do people typically treat their future selves, and what are the consequences?

People often treat their future selves as separate individuals, leading them to compromise their future well-being by overcommitting, overspending, or engaging in unhealthy behaviors, assuming their future selves will handle the consequences.

What is one way people can become more future-oriented and improve their decision-making?

One way to become more future-oriented is to vividly imagine what your life will be like in 20 or 30 years, considering aspects like your appearance, finances, and job. This helps create a stronger connection with your future self and encourages better decisions in the present.

What is the 'focus effect' when predicting future emotions, and how does it impact decision-making?

The 'focus effect' refers to how people tend to overestimate the emotional impact of future events by focusing on the most salient aspect, like weather when considering a move to California. This leads to inaccurate predictions of future happiness or sadness.

What does research suggest about the role of genetics in happiness?

Research suggests that 60% of a person's happiness is determined by genetics and is largely out of their control. External factors like location or life changes have less impact on long-term happiness than people often believe.

How does the speaker illustrate the impact of time on emotional responses to events?

The speaker explains that after major life events, such as winning the lottery or experiencing a serious accident, people experience emotional changes for about three months before returning to their baseline level of happiness.

What practical advice does the speaker give for managing expectations about future happiness?

The speaker advises focusing less on material goals like losing weight or getting a raise and more on proven ways to improve well-being, such as exercising, meditating, and engaging in social interaction, which affect the 40% of happiness that people can control.