What might Hezbollah, Israel and Iran do next? | BBC News

Summary

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has heightened tensions in the Middle East, potentially escalating to a broader conflict. Hezbollah, despite losses, vows to retaliate, posing a threat to Israel and Lebanon. Iran, also reeling from the loss, may incite its allied militias to action. Israel continues military operations against Hezbollah, with the possibility of a ground invasion into Lebanon. The situation is tense, with international implications and the potential to significantly alter the regional landscape.

Takeaways

• ⚔️ The Middle East is on the brink of a larger regional war due to the assassination of a key figure, which has escalated tensions.
• 💥 Hezbollah’s leadership has been decimated, and much of its infrastructure has been destroyed, but the group vows to continue fighting Israel.
• 🚀 Hezbollah still has a significant missile arsenal capable of reaching Tel Aviv, and there is internal pressure to use these before they are destroyed.
• 🇮🇱 Israel is pressing on with its military campaign against Hezbollah and may soon initiate a ground invasion into Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah's missile threat.
• 🇮🇷 Iran has been significantly affected by the assassination and is expected to coordinate a response through its network of allied militias across the region.
• 🧭 Iran is likely to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a war it cannot win while still seeking to avenge the blow to its influence and prestige.
• 🔗 Hezbollah remains a formidable force in Lebanon despite its losses, with political, military, and social influence that extends deep into the country.
• 👥 Public sentiment in Israel is strongly supportive of the campaign against Hezbollah, with celebrations following the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader.
• ⚠️ A potential Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon comes with risks, as past experiences have led to heavy casualties and difficulties withdrawing.
• 🏥 Lebanon is facing a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced and hospitals under severe pressure amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes.

Q & A

What is the potential consequence of the assassination discussed in the transcript?

The assassination could bring the Middle East closer to a much wider and more damaging regional war, though it's not inevitable.

How has Hezbollah been impacted by recent events?

Hezbollah's command structure has been decapitated, its communications sabotaged, and many of its weapons destroyed, but it still has a large missile arsenal and has vowed to continue fighting Israel.

What is the current status of Hezbollah’s missile capabilities?

Hezbollah still has a large arsenal of missiles, many of which can reach Tel Aviv. However, there is internal pressure to use them soon before they are destroyed.

What risks could arise from an Israeli response to Hezbollah's missile attacks?

If Hezbollah launches a mass missile attack, Israel's response could cause significant damage to Lebanon or even escalate to Iran.

How is Iran affected by this assassination and what is its potential course of action?

Iran is deeply affected, as the assassination is a blow to both Hezbollah and Iran itself. Iran may ask its allied militias in the region to step up attacks on Israel and US bases but is likely to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a war it cannot win.

What is Israel's current military strategy in response to Hezbollah?

Israel is continuing its military campaign against Hezbollah and is not considering a ceasefire. It aims to press on until the missile threat is removed, and an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon seems likely.

What is the mood in Beirut following the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader?

The mood in Beirut and across Lebanon is tense and anxious, as people wait to see how Hezbollah will respond. Despite political divisions, Hezbollah remains a powerful political and social force in Lebanon.

How is Hezbollah regarded within Lebanon versus outside Lebanon?

In Lebanon, Hezbollah is viewed as more than just a militia—it is a political party with parliamentary representation and a large social organization. However, it is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, UK, and other Western countries.

How is the Israeli public reacting to the potential for a ground invasion of Lebanon?

The Israeli public seems more united in support of the war against Hezbollah compared to the war in Gaza. However, there are risks, as previous ground invasions in 2006 led to heavy casualties for Israel.

What role does the US political landscape play in Israel's decision-making during this conflict?

The US political backdrop, including the upcoming election, could influence Israel’s actions. While President Biden has been supportive of Israel, there is an acknowledgment in Israel that Prime Minister Netanyahu might prefer Donald Trump as the next US president.