UPDATE: Schnee und Eis im Februar! Wie stehen die Chancen? Kommt nochmal ein Wintereinbruch?

wetternet

26 Jan 202409:22

Summary

TLDRThe recent weather video from wetter.net discussed the quick transition from snowy conditions in the Rhine area to warmer weather, with temperatures reaching 15 to 18°C, causing the snow to melt rapidly. The meteorologist examined the winter weather patterns since 1881, noting the current winter's temperature is 1.2°C above the new climate median for 1991-2020, making it one of the warmer winters on record. The forecast for the next 10-14 days shows no significant winter weather, with a mild and dry outlook, including sunny spells and possible fog. The video also highlighted that while February, March, and April could still bring snowflakes, the immediate forecast suggests a continuation of the mild weather, with detailed temperature predictions and weather models indicating a generally warm and dry period ahead, with little chance for a winter comeback before February 11.

Takeaways

❄ Recent snow has melted quickly due to unusually warm temperatures, reaching 15 to 18°C in parts of Germany.
🛍 The possibility of snow returning this winter remains, with potential for winter weather in February, March, and April.
☁ Over the next 10 to 14 days, no significant winter weather is expected according to current forecasts.
🌞 The current winter is warmer than average, with temperatures approximately 1.2°C above the new climate mean for 1991-2020.
⛅ The weekend forecast includes partial cloud clearance, sunshine, and areas of dense fog, particularly near rivers and streams.
🌤 The coming days are expected to be dry with a mix of clouds and sun; temperatures range from +5 to +9°C.
🌡 Early next week will see continued dry conditions but with denser clouds moving in from the north.
💨 A new high-pressure system named Enno is bringing calm weather across Europe, blocking low-pressure systems from the Atlantic.
☔ No significant change in weather is expected for the first weekend of February, with mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures.
💧 Ensemble forecasts suggest a low probability of winter weather returning by February 11, with mild temperatures and occasional rain.

Q & A

What weather conditions were observed in the Rhine region last weekend?
-Last weekend in the Rhine region, there was a lot of snow on the trees, sometimes with hoarfrost on them. However, by Sunday evening, everything had melted rapidly.
What were the temperature readings in Germany by Wednesday following the weekend?
-By Wednesday following the weekend, temperatures in Germany were measured between 15 to 18 degrees Celsius, which led to the rapid melting of snow.
Is there a possibility of more snowfall in the coming months?
-Yes, there's a possibility of winter weather including snowfall in February, March, and even April, but in the next 10 to 14 days, no significant winter onset is expected.
How does the current winter compare to previous winters since 1881 in terms of temperature deviations?
-The current winter, as of 2023-2024, shows a temperature deviation of approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above the new climatic mean for the years 1991 to 2020, placing it among the warmer winters since records began in 1881.
What is the forecast for the weekend weather mentioned in the script?
-The forecast for the weekend mentions partly cloudy skies with sunshine in areas free of clouds, though patches of dense fog and mist may persist throughout the day in some areas, particularly near rivers and streams.
What weather pattern is expected to dominate Europe due to the high-pressure system named Enno?
-The high-pressure system named Enno, stretching from West to Central Europe, is expected to block low-pressure systems from the Atlantic, bringing overall calm weather across the European continent.
What are the temperature forecasts for the coming week?
-The temperature forecasts for the coming week range from +5 to +9 degrees Celsius, with dry weather expected to continue and colder temperatures at night potentially leading to frost.
What does the ensemble forecast indicate about the likelihood of winter weather by February 11?
-The ensemble forecast indicates a low probability of winter weather setting in by February 11, with mean temperatures expected to be between 5 to 10 degrees Celsius.
What are the predicted temperature anomalies for the current and following weeks according to the European weather model?
-For the current week (January 29 to February 5), the European weather model predicts significantly warmer air masses than usual for this time of year. The following week shows a return to normal temperatures in the North and East, with slightly milder conditions in the West and South.
Does the script suggest the possibility of a colder phase later in February according to the European weather model?
-Yes, the script suggests that there might be a gradual shift towards colder conditions later in February according to the European weather model, with the entire country expected to experience normal temperatures for the time of year.

Outlines

00:00

❄️ Recent Weather Transition and Winter Forecast

The video starts with a personal anecdote about experiencing snowy conditions in the Rhine area during the previous weekend, noting how quickly the snow melted by Sunday evening due to temperatures reaching 15 to 18°C in Germany. The speaker then poses the question of whether more snow could be expected this winter. The forecast does not predict a significant return of winter weather in the next 10 to 14 days, despite the possibility of snow in February, March, and April. A review of winter temperatures since 1881 compared to the new climate mean (1991-2020) reveals the current winter is warmer by approximately 1.2°C, placing it among the warmer winters on record. The weekend weather is described as mostly sunny with potential fog in some areas, leading to a dry and sunny forecast. A high-pressure system named 'Enno' is credited with keeping the weather calm by blocking low-pressure systems from the Atlantic, resulting in dry and mild conditions across Europe.

05:01

🌦️ Mild Weather Continues with Limited Winter Prospects

The second paragraph details a stagnant weather pattern characterized by mild temperatures and minimal winter weather prospects. Despite the calm conditions, which negate the need for extra caution on roads and paths due to ice, the ensemble forecasts suggest a low probability of winter weather returning by February 11, with temperatures expected to remain between 5 to 10°C. The narrative then shifts to regional forecasts, indicating mild temperatures with occasional rain but no significant snowfall expected, especially at lower altitudes. The video mentions the European weather model's temperature anomalies, predicting a continuation of warmer than average temperatures for the current week, but a return to normal temperatures is hinted at in the following weeks. Despite these forecasts, the speaker reminds viewers that the winter season is not over and that cold spells can still occur, as seen in previous months. The video concludes by emphasizing the likelihood of a warmer February but leaves room for the possibility of colder days.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Snow

Snow refers to the precipitation in the form of ice crystals, originating from clouds. In the context of the video, it is discussed in relation to recent weather conditions where there was significant snowfall covering trees and landscapes, which quickly melted as temperatures rose. This creates a visual contrast between the snowy conditions experienced during a weekend and the rapid transition to snow-free landscapes, highlighting the variability of winter weather.

💡Temperature anomalies

Temperature anomalies refer to deviations from the average or expected temperature values for a specific period and region. The video discusses these anomalies in the context of comparing current winter temperatures to the new climate average of 1991-2020, noting a significant warm deviation. This concept is used to illustrate the broader trend of warmer winters, situating the current season within a historical perspective of climate change.

💡Weather forecast

The weather forecast provides predictions about future weather conditions based on meteorological data. In the video, forecasts cover the short-term outlook, including cloud cover, chances of sun, and temperature ranges. The detailed forecast for the weekend and upcoming week, including expectations of dry, sunny, or cloudy weather, serves to inform viewers about what weather to anticipate, emphasizing the absence of a significant winter return in the immediate future.

💡Climate averages

Climate averages refer to the statistical means of historical weather data over a specified period, used as benchmarks to assess current conditions. The video mentions the new climate average of 1991-2020 to compare current winter temperatures, indicating a warmer trend. This concept is crucial for understanding how current temperatures deviate from historical norms, highlighting the impact of climate change on weather patterns.

💡Fog and mist

Fog and mist are atmospheric conditions where visibility is reduced due to tiny water droplets suspended in the air. The forecast mentions the possibility of dense fog and mist, particularly affecting certain areas and potentially lasting all day. This detail is significant for understanding local weather variations and the potential impact on outdoor activities, driving conditions, and overall visibility.

💡High pressure system

A high pressure system, mentioned in the video as 'Enno', is a region where the atmospheric pressure is higher than the surrounding areas. It influences weather patterns, often leading to clearer skies and drier conditions. The video describes how 'Enno' extends across Europe, blocking low-pressure systems and stabilizing the weather, contributing to the dry and mild forecast for the coming days.

💡Temperature forecast

The temperature forecast predicts future temperature conditions, crucial for planning daily activities and understanding weather trends. The video provides specific temperature ranges for the coming days, highlighting mild conditions with no significant cold spells. This information is vital for viewers to adjust their expectations and preparations for outdoor activities, considering the lack of traditional winter weather.

💡Ensemble forecasts

Ensemble forecasts use multiple weather model simulations to predict future conditions, offering a range of possible outcomes. The video refers to these forecasts to assess the likelihood of winter weather returning within the next few weeks. By presenting a general trend towards mild conditions, it underscores the uncertainty in long-term forecasting while indicating a lower probability of significant winter weather.

💡Weather models

Weather models are mathematical simulations of the atmosphere used to predict weather conditions. The video compares predictions from European and American models, discussing their implications for future weather, especially regarding temperature trends and the potential for colder phases. This comparison helps viewers understand the complexity of weather forecasting and the variation between different model predictions.

💡Precipitation

Precipitation refers to any form of water - liquid or solid - falling from the sky, including rain, snow, sleet, and hail. The forecast mentions expectations of rain rather than snow due to the mild temperatures, contrasting with the winter scenario where snow would be more common. This shift from snow to rain is indicative of the overall warmer conditions and the specific impact on weather patterns and precipitation types.

Highlights

Recent weekend snowfall in the Rhine region, with significant snow on trees and frost.

Rapid thawing of snow by Sunday evening, with temperatures reaching 15 to 18°C in Germany.

Possibility of more snow in February, March, and April, despite the current mild trend.

Current winter is warmer, with a deviation of approximately 1.2°C above the new climate median of 1991-2020.

Weekend weather forecast predicts mostly sunny skies, with potential fog and persistent dense fog in some areas.

Dry weather expected through Monday, with chances of sunlight in the south but cloudy from the north.

The influence of high pressure system 'Enno' bringing calm weather across Europe.

Temperature predictions for the weekend range from +5 to +9°C.

Upcoming week's weather forecast: mild temperatures with plenty of clouds and some sunshine.

Meteorological outlook suggests a dull weather pattern with minimal precipitation.

First week of February forecast shows mild temperatures with dry conditions.

Ensemble forecasts indicate low probability of winter weather returning by February 11.

Predictions of mild weather continuing, with temperatures mostly above freezing, reducing chances of snow.

European weather model suggests a return to normal temperatures in mid-February.

Despite a warmer February forecast, cold spells and snow are still possible.