How A Nuclear War Will Start - Minute by Minute

Summary

This gripping script imagines a president's first day in office turning into a nightmare as nuclear missiles are launched towards the country. With only minutes to decide on retaliation, the president is faced with the grim reality of nuclear warfare. The script underscores the urgency and complexity of such a decision, highlighting the potential for millions of immediate deaths and the risk of escalating to a global nuclear winter. It also touches on historical close calls and the ongoing challenges of nuclear disarmament, emphasizing the collective responsibility to prevent such a catastrophe.

Takeaways

• ⏰ **Urgency**: The President has only minutes to decide on a nuclear retaliation, highlighting the time-sensitive nature of crisis decision-making.
• 🚀 **Missile Dynamics**: ICBMs are launched into space and re-enter the atmosphere, making them difficult to intercept due to their high altitude and speed.
• 🌐 **Global Consequences**: Nuclear war affects not just the targeted countries but potentially billions worldwide through nuclear winter and fallout.
• 🛰️ **Satellite Detection**: Modern conflict relies on satellite technology for early detection of missile launches.
• 💥 **Casualty Estimates**: Immediate deaths could be in the millions, with long-term effects possibly reaching tens or even hundreds of millions.
• 🛡️ **Defense Systems**: Anti-ballistic missiles have a limited success rate, especially against a large number of decoys and under radar interference.
• 🌀 **Fog of War**: Misunderstandings and the uncertainty of war can lead to hasty decisions with catastrophic outcomes.
• 🔑 **Single Authority**: The power to launch a nuclear retaliation rests with a single individual, emphasizing the weight of such responsibility.
• 🌿 **Environmental Impact**: Nuclear conflict can lead to long-term environmental damage, affecting agriculture and ecosystems.
• 🔄 **Arms Reduction**: Historically, there has been progress in reducing nuclear arsenals through treaties, suggesting that continued efforts can lead to further disarmament.

Q & A

What is the estimated time until the nuclear missiles strike the country?

The estimated time until the nuclear missiles strike the country is 14 minutes.

What is the significance of the joint allied aerial defense exercise mentioned in the script?

The joint allied aerial defense exercise is significant because it began just minutes before the detection of the enemy's ICBM launches, potentially contributing to the misunderstanding that led to the attack.

Why can't all the incoming missiles be shot down?

Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are launched into space and re-enter the atmosphere at a higher and faster speed than anything that can be sent after them, making them difficult to intercept.

How many ICBMs were detected and what was unusual about the number of silos that fired?

One hundred twelve ICBM launches were detected, but only 20 of the enemy's 80 underground nuclear silos fired, which is unusual and suggests that most of the launchers were mobile transporters.

What are the primary and secondary targets of the enemy's strategic doctrine?

The primary targets are military and nuclear weapon systems, while the secondary targets include industry and infrastructure such as oil refineries, power stations, and deep water ports.

What is the potential immediate casualty count from the nuclear attack?

The immediate casualty count could be a few million, with deaths from the blast and burns occurring mainly during morning rush hour.

How does the script describe the potential long-term effects of the nuclear attack?

The script describes that the total fallout from the attacks might trigger a nuclear winter, potentially killing billions around the world.

What are the options available for the president to authorize nuclear retaliation?

The president can authorize the launch of 400 warheads in silos, prepare 46 nuclear-capable bombers for takeoff, or use 5 nuclear submarines at sea for retaliation.

What is the significance of the submarines being undetectable while submerged?

The submarines' undetectability while submerged makes them a reliable backup for nuclear retaliation if land-based silos and bombers are destroyed.

What is the impact of the enemy's pre-detonated warheads on high altitude on the interceptors?

The pre-detonated warheads ionize the atmosphere, creating radar interference that hampers the effectiveness of the interceptors, despite their 55% success rate in tests.

What historical examples does the script provide to illustrate the risk of false alarms leading to nuclear war?

The script provides examples such as the 1995 Russian radar detecting a scientific rocket as a missile, the 1979 US computers reporting a full-scale Soviet attack due to a training tape error, and the 1983 Soviet satellite alert system showing a false ICBM launch due to sunlight reflection.

How has the number of nuclear weapons changed since the Cold War?

During the Cold War, there were over 70,000 nuclear weapons. Through arms reduction treaties, that number has been reduced to about 12,500.