Is it time to scrap electric cars? With Rory Sutherland | SpectatorTV
Summary
TLDRIn this discussion, Rory Sutherland and Freddy Gray delve into the electric vehicle (EV) market's challenges. They explore government incentives' impact, the market's resistance, and the need for charging infrastructure. Sutherland argues for a natural progression towards electrification, citing electric motors' advantages and the potential of plug-in hybrids as a transitional solution. They also address the risk of Chinese EV overproduction and its global market implications, suggesting a cautious approach to mandated timelines for technology adoption.
Takeaways
- 🚗 The electric vehicle (EV) market is facing challenges despite government incentives and mandates pushing for electrification.
- 🌿 Ross Clark's article discusses the 'great EV bust', suggesting that electric cars are not being adopted as expected despite efforts to promote them.
- 🔌 Rory Sutherland argues that the natural progression for vehicles is towards electrification due to the advantages of electric motors.
- 🏡 Sutherland points out that electric cars can be miniaturized and are more versatile in terms of energy source compared to internal combustion engines.
- 🚦 There is a debate on government mandates for EV adoption, with concerns that they might be premature and not aligned with market readiness.
- 🔌 Plug-in hybrid cars are presented as a compromise between traditional and electric vehicles, suitable for those with range anxiety.
- 📉 The market for early adopters of EVs is limited, and there are concerns about the sustainability of the current EV market model.
- 📉 There is a worry about the overproduction of EVs by China, which could lead to a flood of cheap EVs in Western markets, affecting local industries.
- 🔄 The discussion highlights the need for innovation and the potential for game-changing technologies to emerge in the EV space.
- 🔌 Battery technology is a critical issue for EVs, with concerns about China's dominance in the market and the need for more competitive alternatives.
Q & A
What is the main topic of discussion in the transcript?
-The main topic of discussion is the current state and future of electric vehicles (EVs), including government incentives, market adoption, and the challenges faced by the industry.
What does Ross Clark argue in his piece about electric cars?
-Ross Clark argues that despite government incentives and mandates, the electric car market is not functioning as required and is experiencing a breakdown.
What is Rory's opinion on the natural progression of vehicles towards electrification?
-Rory believes that the natural path of vehicle development is towards electrification, citing the advantages of electric motors in miniaturizing cars and the versatility of electricity production.
What is Rory's view on government mandates for electric vehicle adoption?
-Rory thinks that government attempts to mandate the pace of change towards electric vehicles may be misguided and that the market should be allowed to naturally progress.
What is the 'crossing the chasm' concept mentioned in the transcript?
-The 'crossing the chasm' concept refers to the difficulty of moving a product from early adopters to the mainstream market, which is complicated by the fact that not everyone buys new cars.
Why does Rory think plug-in hybrid cars could be a good compromise?
-Rory sees plug-in hybrid cars as a good compromise because they can run mostly on electricity for short distances while still having an internal combustion engine for longer trips.
What issue does Rory raise about the market saturation of early adopters for electric cars?
-Rory points out that the market quickly runs out of early adopters who are willing to buy new cars, which is a small segment of the population, potentially limiting the growth of electric car sales.
What is Rory's perspective on the affordability of electric cars?
-Rory suggests that as secondhand prices of electric cars fall, affordability issues may be resolved, but there are concerns about the impact of an oversupply of Chinese EVs on the market.
What does Rory suggest as a potential solution to the challenges faced by the electric vehicle market?
-Rory suggests that the government should encourage, but not mandate, the adoption of electric vehicles and allow the market to naturally evolve with innovations like self-driving cars or micro cars.
What is the 'mayor' concept that Rory refers to in the context of electric vehicles?
-The 'mayor' concept refers to producing something that is notably better than what preceded it but not so different that it is unrecognizable or alarming, which Rory suggests is a good approach for electric vehicles to be accepted by the mainstream market.
Why does Rory compare the current situation of electric vehicles to the荧光灯 bulbs incident?
-Rory compares electric vehicles to the荧光灯 bulbs incident because, like荧光灯 bulbs, EVs might be prematurely mandated without allowing for market innovation and the development of better technologies like LED lighting.
Outlines
🚗 The Electric Vehicle Market's Struggles
The paragraph discusses the electric vehicle (EV) market's challenges despite government incentives and mandates. Ross Clark's article is highlighted, which uses the proverb 'you can lead a horse to water' to illustrate the EV market's struggle to meet expectations despite significant support. Rory Southern, a supporter of EVs, argues that the natural progression of vehicle technology is towards electrification, citing benefits such as miniaturization and the versatility of electricity production. However, he acknowledges the market's current limitations, including the rapid depletion of early adopters and the potential overproduction by China, which could flood Western markets with EVs.
🌿 Environmental Policies and Market Realities
This section delves into the government's dual role of guiding the automotive industry towards electrification and protecting domestic markets from foreign competition, particularly Chinese EVs. Rory suggests that mandated timelines for technology adoption, like those seen with fluorescent bulbs, can be premature and lead to suboptimal outcomes. He advocates for a more voluntary approach, encouraging those capable and willing to adopt EVs, while also recognizing the benefits of plug-in hybrids as a transitional technology. The conversation also touches on the psychological resistance to new electrical goods and the potential for game-changing innovations in EV technology.
🚦 The Future of Personal Transportation
The discussion turns to the potential for innovation in personal transportation, such as self-driving cars or micro cars, which could disrupt the EV market. Rory emphasizes the importance of allowing market forces to drive innovation rather than imposing theoretical ideals. He also points out the psychological barrier to adopting new electrical goods and the tendency for consumers to wait for technology to mature. The conversation highlights the need for a balanced approach that encourages innovation while being mindful of market realities and consumer behavior.
🏡 Heat Pumps and the Adjacent Possible
In the final paragraph, the conversation shifts to heat pumps and the concept of 'maximally advanced yet acceptable' (Mayor) in design. Rory uses the example of air conditioning units that can double as heat pumps to argue for incremental technological adoption that doesn't require a complete overhaul of existing systems. He criticizes the lack of subsidies for such incremental improvements, suggesting that they could be a more accessible and practical solution for many consumers. The discussion concludes with the idea that technology should evolve within the 'adjacent possible,' a concept from evolutionary biology that encourages gradual and recognizable advancements.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Electric Vehicle (EV)
💡Electrification
💡Green Ideology
💡Plug-in Hybrid
💡Charging Infrastructure
💡Early Adopters
💡Market Bust
💡Chinese EV Overproduction
💡Net-Zero Targets
💡Affordability
💡Heat Pumps
Highlights
The electric vehicle market is facing challenges despite government incentives and mandates.
Ross Clark's article discusses the potential 'great electric vehicle bust'.
Rory Sutherland is a fan of electric vehicles and has written extensively on the subject.
Governments worldwide are pushing towards electric vehicles due to green ideology.
The natural progression of vehicles is towards electrification, according to Rory.
Electric motors allow for the miniaturization of vehicles, unlike internal combustion engines.
Electricity can be produced from various sources, unlike the reliance on crude oil for electric cars.
The market for electric cars may be reaching a saturation point with early adopters.
Plug-in hybrid cars could be a good compromise for those hesitant about fully electric vehicles.
The average age of new car buyers is higher, which may affect the adoption rate of electric vehicles.
The fall in demand for electric cars could lead to more affordable second-hand options.
China's overproduction of electric vehicles could lead to them being 'dumped' on other markets.
Rory suggests that government mandates for electric vehicle adoption may be premature.
The idea that electric cars are better than those with internal combustion engines is discussed.
Rory argues that buying a new car is a form of wealth redistribution.
The conversation touches on the potential for self-driving cars to disrupt the electric vehicle market.
Rory discusses the psychological barrier to adopting new electric technologies.
The importance of a gradual transition to electric vehicles is emphasized.
The discussion concludes with the idea that the market should be allowed to innovate naturally.
Transcripts
now before rishy sunak decided to throw
the spectators weekly Rhythm out of sync
uh we were running with our cover this
week which was electric shock uh which
is a fascinating piece by Ross Clark um
about the great electric vehicle bust um
it's a very important subject and Ross
has explored it very well uh I'm
delighted to be joined by Rory
southernland the wiki man our spectator
Wiki man uh who's also written a lot
about uh electric vehicles over the
years quite a fan Rory is of electric
vehicles and if I can just
find Ross's article uh Rory I thought
I'd start by asking by putting to you a
a a bit from Ross's
piece um where Ross says uh if there
ever was a real world demonstration of
the old proverb you can lead a horse to
water it is electric cars and what he's
referring to there is the fact that
governments the world over particularly
Western governments have because of
green uh ideology to a certain extent uh
pushed their public and push the car
industry towards electric vehicles with
huge incentives and mandates and so on
um and yet uh the electric car market is
not really functioning as required it's
having a bit of a breakdown on the side
of the road what do you think about
Ross's thesis do you agree with it I
think that it if you look at my opinion
in the on this I think the natural path
of migration of cars as with more or
less every other device which makes
something rotate in this case a drive
shaft I think the natural path of travel
is towards
electrification and I I think there are
reasons to be hopeful about
electrification not least in that
electric motors allow you to miniaturize
cars and other vehicles in a way that
the internal combustion engine doesn't
there are other advant for example you
can produce electricity with more or
less any fuel um or any source of energy
including nuclear whereas electric cars
run on crude oil effectively there you
know electric cars are
omnivorous so there are lots of reasons
I think to believe that that's the
direction of travel and there are
Arguments for accelerating that
direction of travel because obviously
it's dependent on things like charging
infrastructure however I think
government attempts to mandate the pace
of change
are very possibly wrong-headed uh just
to give one example I don't really see
what the objection is to plug in hybrid
cars if people are too nervous to have
an electric car or if most of the time
they only drive very short distances and
merely use the internal combustion
engine for the rare occasions when they
drive further out of town for example
for a Londoner the plug-in hybrid seems
a pretty good compromise or at least a
kind of gateway drug to
electrification but there is a problem
here which actually I should have
anticipated and the market should have
anticipated which is you do run out of
early adopters in a market quite quickly
there is always a kind of it's sometimes
called in marketing crossing the chasm
in other words it's reasonably easy to
produce a new product which gets adopted
by the 10% of the population who are to
put it very casually kind of relatively
wealthy novelty
Seekers but for that product to actually
then migrate to the mainstream or to
what's called sort of you know early
adopters the Early majority the late
majority and then you know the mass
Market isn't always that easy that's
Complicated by the fact by the way that
not many people actually buy cars from
new uh in the okay the electric car I
think has done very well with in the
fleet market and the corporate leasing
Market not least because there were very
generous uh tax concessions
um actually the average age for example
of someone who buys a Volkswagen Golf
from new is somewhere between like 58 58
and 64 okay most people in their 20s 30s
40s don't actually buy new cars unless
they're on some sort of company leas ski
and so what you're looking for with the
electric car is actually quite a small
Market which is the people who are
novelty Seekers who also buy a new car
now you could argue that the fallof in
demand is going to be the solution to
its own problem and that if secondhand
prices of electric cars fall fairly
dramatically as seems to be the case
well you are at least solving the
problem of
affordability but there are some worries
there I think Ross is right to worry
about the Chinese who made this mistake
massively overproduced electric cars and
are now effectively going to be dumping
them on you know either the European or
the American Market yes that's kind of
an unfair threat to the indigenous car
industry I think um and it is in some
ways for consumers you might argue it's
a bit of a bonanza at least to those
consumers who are adventurous enough uh
to actually go electric but this
probably isn't ideal I have to say and I
I I I blame myself a little bit because
as an evangelist for electric cars
regardless of any environmental message
by the way I will argue that they are
better cars my previous car was a 5 L
Jaguar V8 XJ and I switched to a Ford
Mustang macki a cheaper car certainly
from new and it's better okay it's
marketly better all kinds of reasons one
pedal driving regenerative breaking you
know quietness and actually a bizarre
kind of combination of being a limousine
when you wanted to be a limousine and a
go-kart when you want it to be a go-kart
in lots and lots of respects we're now a
two-car electric household once you have
home charging the whole issue with
charging is actually to be honest a
distraction you know unless you're one
of these people in the comments on my
last spectator piece is someone who said
I you know I need to drive to Glasgow
and back from Northwest London in a day
well personally I think that person is
mad I think that's what trains and
airplanes are for but nonetheless if you
are that person you probably shouldn't
buy an electric car you should buy a
diesel is is the problem Rory that uh
governments trying to do different
things at once they're trying to uh
plate uh the the car industry and show
the car industry A Way Forward which the
car IND have hopped on board with at the
same time as they're trying to encourage
electric car use by everyone for Net
Zero targets and so on at the same time
as they want to block out Chinese cars
because the Americans are doing it
because they want to protect their
domestic car Industries related to that
question what what do you think Rishi
sunak should do about uh this abundance
of Chinese EVS that are going to be
dumped a bit like fenyl or steel is
being dumped all around the world when
China has an over
Supply my personal view is that
um the extent to which in some cases I
me broadly speaking as I say I support
electrification as a direction of travel
I support renewable energy in terms of a
direction of travel but I think we have
a kind of precedent in the case of
mandated fluorescent bulbs the way in
which we got rid of the incandescent
bulb and we got rid of it about two
years years too early because um we
mandated that everybody bought these
piece of crap bulbs that took 10 minutes
to reach full brightness okay and then
two years later LED lighting came along
which rendered the whole thing
completely
Moot and I think I'm very uncomfortable
with mandated time scales that are
universally applied I think as far as
possible you know I would encourage
people whose motoring requirements are
um you know within normal range and who
have their own driveway I would
encourage those people to at least
consider an electric car because I think
they're very very good I mean you know
looked at from the point of view of an
alien the internal combustion engine is
an insanely complicated mechanism for
simply rotating a shaft okay all those
parts the air filter the oil filter the
tapet the big end the cylinders the
gearbox okay all of those things are
eliminating an electric car it's
electricity in rotation out okay okay so
there are you know very there's a very
good reason why your toothbrush I assume
you have an electric toothbrush doesn't
run on an internal combustion engine
there's a very good reason why radio
controlled helicopters in my childhood
they ran on tiny little sort of one
stroke or two-stroke engines okay they
don't anymore okay the movement of
travel should be electric and the
government should at least the very
least kind of encourage that and I might
also add that people go it's disgusting
that my taxes went to subsidizing you
having a new electric El car can I make
the point that anybody who buys a car
from new is practicing a massive form of
wealth redistribution through voluntary
means if you go and buy a new Jag Freddy
what it means is that four years later
someone will be able to buy a really
really good car for half the price you
paid if only the property Market worked
like that you know I've got I've got
this three-bedroom house in Mayfair but
I've used it for three years so you can
have it for half price okay you are you
are you are a massive massively generous
social person because it means that
someone half as wealthy as you can have
a car that's nearly as good as yours
Rory let me interrupt isn't isn't the
key word voluntary there yes absolutely
I I don't think it's I don't think it's
wrong in the early days of a technology
for a government to at least make sure
that the tech I mean you know I was very
much in favor of a light's touch on
vaping because I think you you know in
the early days of a technology the
natural reaction is kind of fear and
hostility it's worth noting by the way
I'm old enough to remember in 1989 I
used a mobile phone on Oxford Street and
two people shouted abuse at me from
passing cars okay right most
Technologies encounter quite a lot of
hostility in their early days sometimes
deservedly sometimes not you touch on a
what could be the key Point here which
is that Innovation uh always always
comes up with something unexpected that
that government action hasn't provided
for and that markets can provide for uh
and that might be in the case of cars
self-driving cars which might come along
just at the moment as the EV Market is
ready to go and in fact we'll replace it
entirely or actually mini cars somewhere
between the electric cargo bike and the
car there is the opportunity for an
electric car which people use for short
range Journeys it's kind of absurd I
take a four-seater car to my local
station three miles away with a bloody
gra battery weighing a ton okay to be
honest for that Journey what I need is
is is some sort of micro vehicle yes
okay the Citron Amy isn't a totally
insane idea it's probably a bit ahead of
its time but I can see the micro car
being quite a major solution here
because they don't need very big
batteries they don't need huge range in
fact in the case of the Citron Amy you
just plug it into a three pin socket you
don't even need a
charger but I agree with you that I
think that the attempt to take a kind of
theoretical ideal set a timeline for it
and impose it on the market without
allowing the market to do its ingenious
best and we have you know exactly the
case of those you know fluorescent light
bulbs which were ghastly you know um
there's also a problem by the way which
is a psychological one I mentioned the
fact that not many people buy new cars
okay it's a it's a narrow slice of the
market that buys cars from new and they
tend to be much much older and therefore
potentially more conservative ative who
knows okay less experimental there's
also the problem that 25 years of
experience if you are over 50 actually
50 years of experience has taught you
that with electrical Goods it always
pays to wait okay the people who bought
the flat first flat screen televisions
paid an insane premium for a not
particularly good plasma screen LCD came
along changes the game I think there's
potential for a similar game-changing
invention in um in electric Locomotion
uh to be honest but but you're right in
the sense that a lot of people have this
instinctive feeling if it's got if it's
got a plug of some kind okay and it's
relatively new the trick is to wait five
years until until the problems have been
ironed out or human Ingenuity has had
the opportunity to do its best well and
a problem that a lot of people want to
get ironed out is batteries which as
Ross says towards the end of his piece
uh have um they're all
China seems to have cornered the market
to a large extent uh British attempts to
develop our own battery Market have been
pretty unsuccessful uh for electric cars
and uh until this gets ironed out or
becomes a more competitive uh Market by
itself um EV the EV Market is going to
struggle the bigger EV Market is going
to struggle yes I mean again um I'm one
of the things I think that's often true
in terms of migrating people there's a
concept in design called mayor which is
Maxim advanced yet acceptable and it
comes from Raymond Loy the designer who
said that it's your job to produce
something that's notably better than
what preceded it but not so weirdly
different that people find it
unrecognizable or alarming or simply
can't make sense of it I don't
understand the antipathy to plug-in
hybrids which seemed to me a pretty good
compromise okay most of your Journeys if
you if you do plug them in are going to
be electric with all the benefit that
brings you know one one thing with my
electric car I very rarely use the
brakes at all okay I took my car in for
a service and they said the brakes are
fine and the tires are fine I said what
about all the other stuff they said
there isn't any other stuff okay you
know there are huge advantages to this
but actually the plug-in the plug-in
hybrid seems to me actually a pretty
healthy compromise if someone reduces
not 100% of their carbon emissions and I
don't think this is all about carbon by
the way anyway
okay um but if someone reduces a very
large part of their carbon emissions but
still has um a um an electric you know
an internal combustion engine for longer
range Journeys and therefore has a
lighter smaller battery that that
doesn't strike me that doesn't TR me
there's anything insane about this it's
very similar to the argument about heat
pumps where to get a grant for a heat
pump you have to rip out your whole
boiler and your central heating system
okay well you know I'd like to keep them
in reserve if you don't mind you know
I'm quite happy getting a he heat pump
which maybe reduces my use of gas by 80%
I'm not going to get rid of my boiler
just yet if you don't mind that's kind
of a leap in the dark and interestingly
if you want to know a very interesting
thing about heat pumps an air
conditioning unit which you can install
one room at a time for about 1,500 which
is a very very long-established
technology made by recognizable
companies like you know mitubishi and so
forth that's a heat pump you can install
an air iing unit and run it in reverse
it's has basically the same level of
efficiency it's an air-to-air heat pump
and you can keep your boiler for really
really cold spells why don't you get a
grant for that and I asked my brother
he's doing this whole air conditioning
thing he's an astrophysicist so he knows
all the bloody mathematics and the
physics involved okay and he said it's
very simple they don't want people
installing air conditioning units
because you might use them for air
conditioning okay which would then
increase energy consumption to which my
answer is wait this is the UK okay
that's a reasonable exam reasonable I
think objection to air conditioning
units if you're in Algeria or if you're
in southern Italy or if you're in Greece
in the UK a lot of happy people would
enjoy air conditioning for the two weeks
of the year when it's painfully hot and
they'd have a heat pump for the rest of
the year they could still keep their
boiler which they'd use if it were just
egregiously cold for a couple of weeks I
think that's a happy compromise many
people could adopt which is Mayor
maximally advanced yet acceptable it's
what an evolutionary biologist as I said
in this week's article would call the
adjacent possible you can get people to
do that the number of people who have
spend 40,000 in one go ripping out their
boiler and their radiators digging out
their lawn to install piping the number
of people who will do that rather than
say having a holiday in the MDES with
the available money is very very small
and they're probably enormously Rich to
begin with so why the hell are we
subsidizing them well quite Rory I'm
afraid I'm going to have to unplug you
there because we're running out of time
but uh thank you very much indeed uh
it's always fascinating to talk to you
about any subject uh and particularly
one as curious as this thank you Rory
it's a joy Freddy thanks very much
[Music]
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