Counter-Terrorism 12 - Geo-Politics and Terrorism

Summary

El video analiza la relación entre la geopolítica y el terrorismo, con un enfoque en el Medio Oriente como estudio de caso. Se explora cómo el terrorismo, tanto regional como internacional, se entrelaza con los intereses geopolíticos de los estados. Se destacan ejemplos como Hamas, Hezbollah y el conflicto sirio para mostrar cómo los actores estatales y no estatales afectan la dinámica regional y global. También se menciona el papel de potencias internacionales como Estados Unidos, Rusia y la posible implicación futura de China en los conflictos de la región.

Takeaways

• 🌍 La relación entre la geopolítica y el terrorismo es fundamental para entender el terrorismo en el Medio Oriente.
• 🏛️ La interacción entre el Estado y los actores no estatales es crucial, donde los intereses geopolíticos de los Estados afectan la dinámica del terrorismo.
• 🔍 La geopolítica del Medio Oriente es compleja y está en constante cambio, requiriendo una comprensión detallada para abordar los conflictos y el terrorismo.
• 🔒 Hamas se centra en la región de Gaza y rechaza la interferencia externa, lo que refleja una lucha intra-regional más que inter-regional o internacional.
• ⚖️ Hezbollah, aunque con influencia en Líbano, se ha visto afectado por la situación en Siria, mostrando cómo los conflictos locales pueden tener implicaciones geopolíticas más amplias.
• 🇸🇾 La guerra civil en Siria ha atraído a grandes potencias y ha complicado la geopolítica regional, con la presencia de ISIS y el papel del gobierno sirio.
• 🔁 La inestabilidad en el Medio Oriente puede tener efectos en la economía global, como se ve en la importancia de los recursos petroleros de Arabia Saudita.
• 🔄 La geopolítica puede crear alianzas inesperadas, como la colaboración entre Israel, la Autoridad Palestiniana y Egipto para resolver conflictos.
• 🌐 La expansión de la definición del Medio Oriente a MENA (Medio Oriente y Norte de África) ha incrementado la complejidad de la región y sus relaciones internacionales.
• 🚩 La posición de los Estados Unidos y Rusia en la región, así como la respuesta a los desafíos terroristas y estatales, muestra la importancia de definir y aplicar correctamente los intereses geopolíticos.

Q & A

¿Cuál es la relación entre la geopolítica y el terrorismo según el guion?

La relación entre la geopolítica y el terrorismo es esencial para comprender el terrorismo en el Medio Oriente, ya que el terrorismo puede ser local, internacional o inter-regional, y esto tiene un impacto directo en los intereses geopolíticos de diferentes naciones.

¿Cuáles son los tres objetivos clave que se deben recordar al discutir la relación entre geopolítica y terrorismo?

Los tres objetivos clave son: examinar la relación entre geopolítica y terrorismo, entender la relación entre el estado nación y el actor no estatal, y describir y articular la geopolítica del Medio Oriente.

¿Qué es la geopolítica según el guion?

La geopolítica es la relación entre los estados, los diferentes intereses y las regiones, y cómo conectar el rompecabezas de diferentes intereses, preocupaciones y ansiedades tanto en el contexto de la región como en el de la comunidad global.

¿Cómo muestra el guion la relación entre Hamas y la geopolítica?

Hamas, con sede en la Franja de Gaza, tiene intereses exclusivos en Gaza y rechaza la interferencia externa en su conflicto con Israel. Sin embargo, su conflicto con Israel impacta a otros países como Egipto, debido a la relación de Hamas con el Movimiento Musulmán Hermano en Egipto.

¿En qué se diferencia la situación de Hezbollah en el Líbano del caso de Hamas?

Hezbollah, ubicado en el sur del Líbano, ha estado involucrado en conflictos con Israel y más recientemente en la guerra en Siria, lo que ha cambiado su enfoque de ser principalmente un actor en el conflicto con Israel a uno más relacionado con la geopolítica de Siria.

¿Cómo impacta la guerra en Siria la geopolítica del Medio Oriente?

La guerra en Siria ha atraído a grandes potencias internacionales como Estados Unidos y Rusia, y ha complicado la geopolítica de la región debido a la presencia de grupos rebeldes, el gobierno sirio y la influencia de ISIS, lo que ha llevado a una situación en la que es difícil diferenciar entre grupos moderados y extremistas.

¿Qué complicaciones presenta la situación de los refugiados sirios para la geopolítica?

La presencia de refugiados sirios en países como Turquía ha llevado a que el conflicto sirio se extienda más allá de sus fronteras, lo que implica que la geopolítica del conflicto sirio ahora incluye a países que antes no estaban directamente involucrados.

¿Cómo podría la caída del régimen saudí impactar la geopolítica internacional?

La caída del régimen saudí tendría un impacto enorme en la geopolítica internacional, especialmente debido a las reservas de petróleo en Arabia Saudita, y podría afectar la economía global y requerir la intervención de países como Estados Unidos.

¿Qué ejemplos de 'extraños cónyuges' en la geopolítica se mencionan en el guion?

Se menciona un ejemplo cuando Israel, la Autoridad Palestiniana y Egipto intentaron llegar a un acuerdo para poner fin al conflicto entre Israel y Hamas, lo que demuestra cómo en la geopolítica, intereses comunes pueden llevar a actores que generalmente no tienen la mejor relación a colaborar.

¿Qué sugiere el guion sobre cómo abordar la relación entre los estados y los actores no estatales en la geopolítica del Medio Oriente?

El guion sugiere que es necesario definir con precisión los intereses de los estados y entender cómo estos intereses se aplican, ya que la situación es más compleja que en el pasado y requiere sensibilidad hacia el papel de actores externos en la región.

Outlines

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Keywords

💡Geopolítica

La geopolítica se refiere a la relación entre los estados, los diferentes intereses y las regiones, y cómo se conectan los diferentes intereses, preocupaciones y ansiedades tanto a nivel regional como global. En el vídeo, la geopolítica es crucial para entender cómo los conflictos y las acciones de grupos terroristas pueden afectar a los estados y a sus relaciones internacionales, como se ve en el caso de Hamas y su relación con Egipto.

💡Terrorismo

El terrorismo es descrito como acciones que en algunos casos pueden ser locales, pero en otros, claramente internacionales o inter-regionales, y que tienen intereses geopolíticos entre diferentes naciones. En el vídeo, se discute cómo el terrorismo en el Medio Oriente es esencialmente vinculado a la geopolítica, y se ejemplifica con organizaciones como Hamas y Hezbollah.

💡Estado-nación

Un estado-nación es un territorio donde vive un pueblo que tiene una identidad común y un sistema de gobierno. En el vídeo, se discute la relación entre el estado-nación y los actores no estatales, como los grupos terroristas, y cómo estos últimos pueden influir en las políticas y la estabilidad de los estados-nación, como en el caso de Hezbollah y su influencia en Líbano.

💡Actor no estatal

Un actor no estatal se refiere a individuos, grupos o organizaciones que no son parte del gobierno de un país y que pueden influir en los asuntos políticos y sociales. En el vídeo, se menciona a grupos como Al Qaeda y ISIS como actores no estatales que tienen un impacto significativo en la geopolítica del Medio Oriente.

💡Conflitos asimétricos

Los conflictos asimétricos son aquellos en los que los combatientes tienen capacidades militares desiguales. En el vídeo, se discute cómo los grupos terroristas, como ISIS en Siria, luchan contra gobiernos y ejércitos estatales en conflictos asimétricos, lo que complica la resolución de los conflictos y tiene implicaciones geopolíticas.

💡Refugiados sirios

Los refugiados sirios son civiles que huyeron de la guerra en Siria. En el vídeo, se menciona cómo la crisis de los refugiados sirios ha tenido un impacto geopolítico en países como Turquía y Europa, y cómo ha complicado la geopolítica del conflicto sirio.

💡Califato islámico

El Califato Islámico es un término utilizado por grupos como ISIS para referirse a su objetivo de establecer un estado islámico que abarque amplias regiones. En el vídeo, se destaca cómo el objetivo del Califato Islámico de ISIS va más allá de Siria y tiene implicaciones para la estabilidad regional y global.

💡MENA

MENA es una abreviatura para Medio Oriente y Norte de África, y se utiliza para describir la expansión de la región de interés geopolítico más allá del Medio Oriente tradicional. En el vídeo, se sugiere que para entender completamente la geopolítica del Medio Oriente, es necesario considerar la región de MENA en su conjunto.

💡Intervención estadounidense

La intervención estadounidense se refiere a la participación directa o indirecta de los Estados Unidos en los conflictos internacionales. En el vídeo, se discute cómo la intervención de Estados Unidos en conflictos como el de Libia contrasta con su falta de participación en Siria, y cómo esto puede enviar mensajes sobre la resolución y la retórica de los Estados Unidos.

💡Línea roja

La 'línea roja' es un término que se utiliza para describir un límite o condición que, si se cruza, desencadenará una respuesta específica. En el vídeo, se menciona cómo la amenaza de intervención de Estados Unidos si el gobierno de Siria usaba armas químicas fue percibida como una 'línea roja' no cumplida, lo que puede enviar la señal de debilidad diplomática.

Highlights

The discussion will focus on the relationship between geopolitics and terrorism using the Middle East as a case study.

Three key objectives for understanding the relationship between geopolitics, nation-states, and non-state actors.

The importance of understanding geopolitics in relation to terrorism in the Middle East.

Definition of geopolitics as the relationship between states, interests, and regions.

Terrorism can be local, international, or inter-regional, impacting geopolitical interests.

Hamas' conflict with Israel is specific to Gaza, but has broader geopolitical implications for Egypt.

Hezbollah's focus has shifted from Israel to the Syrian conflict, impacting regional geopolitics.

The Syrian civil war exemplifies the complex relationship between geopolitics and terrorism.

The difficulty in defining 'moderate' groups in the Syrian conflict and the risks of arming them.

The involvement of major powers like the U.S. and Russia in the Syrian conflict due to geopolitical interests.

The Syrian government's role in the conflict and its impact on international geopolitics.

The role of ISIS in the Syrian conflict and its broader goals beyond Syria.

The impact of Syrian refugees on neighboring countries and international geopolitics.

The potential geopolitical implications if Al Qaeda had succeeded in undermining the Saudi regime.

The importance of understanding the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in geopolitics.

The changing dynamics of state and non-state actor relationships in the Middle East.

The need for state leaders to define their interests narrowly in the context of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

The potential for major powers outside the region to become interested in the Middle East due to geopolitics.

Transcripts

in this session

we are going to discuss the relationship

between geopolitics and terrorism

in order to have this discussion i'm

going to use the middle east as our case

study

to have this discussion there are three

objectives that you need to remember at

all times

one you must be able to examine discuss

the relationship between geopolitics and

terrorism

two you must be able to discuss and

understand

the relationship between the nation

state and the non-state actor

and three you must be able to describe

and articulate

the geopolitics of the middle east

i think it's fair to state that if we

would be having this discussion

20 years ago we would not have asked

ourselves

what is the relationship between

geopolitics and terrorism

we reviewed terrorism as part of the

middle east

but i don't think we would have asked

ourselves what's the relationship

between geopolitics

terrorism and the middle east and

particularly the geopolitics of the

middle east

however given the extraordinary

complexity

both of terrorism and of the middle east

i am one of those who firmly believe

that to truly understand

terrorism in the middle east it's

essential to understand

the relationship between geopolitics and

terrorism

so definitions are important

what is geopolitics geopolitics is the

relationship between

states between different interests

between different interests amongst

different regions

how to connect the puzzle of different

interests

different concerns different anxieties

um

in the context both of the region of the

region in its small sense region largely

speaking

and the of the global community

while terrorism is perceived by some and

justifiably so

in some cases to be local in other cases

clearly it's international or if it's

not

international it's inter-regional and

therefore

because in some cases inter-regional and

other cases international there are

clear

geopolitical interests amongst different

nation states

to give some examples

when one thinks of the organization

hamas

which is located in the gaza strip i

would argue

that hamas's exclusive interest

is gaza and they are unwilling

and forcibly so to have outside

interests

try to interfere their conflict with

israel based on the gaza strip

to that extent hamas over the years

has rejected efforts from hezbollah to

interfere or help depends how one looks

at it

they have clearly rejected efforts from

al qaeda

to interfere slash help they've clearly

rejected efforts

by isis to interfere help and they've

also rejected international efforts

more than that hamas's terrorist actions

occur only in gaza in the gaza strip

slash israel

hamas has never attacked israeli targets

outside of the immediate region meaning

that their focus is solely and

exclusively intro region not inter but

intra however

in the context of geopolitics note

that when hamas is engaged in conflict

with israel

it is of concern to egypt why is it a

concern to egypt

because the egyptians view hamas as an

offshoot

offspring of the muslim brotherhood

located in egypt and when there's

an uptick in tension violence between

israel

and hamas from egypt's perspective

that means that that may impact muslim

the muslim brotherhood in egypt

and therefore geopolitically that has an

impact

on egypt so note the following even

though hamas's

conflict with israel from hamas's

perspective is

very very specific to the region between

israel

and hamas from egypt's perspective

it has potential ramifications on

egyptian policy

with respect to the muslim brotherhood

which impacts

egyptian domestic policy that's a clear

example

of of a specific geopolitical impact of

conflict a

how it impacts nation state be egypt

let's look at hezbollah hezbollah is

located in

southern lebanon it literally

aims its guns directly at israel

over the years there has been there have

been a number of conflicts

between hezbollah and israel

note that hezbollah which is the party

of god

largely controls if not exclusively

controls southern lebanon the government

of lebanon

really does not exercise any authority

and or power in southern lebanon

meaning that a terrorist organization

hezbollah

occupies a significant swath of land in

southern lebanon

largely independent of the lebanese

government

clearly to the chagrin of the lebanese

government but conducting its own policy

attacking israel when it when it so

wishes

independent of any any input by the

lebanese government

however if one really tracks this very

carefully

one will see that over the course of the

past

months and year years perhaps during the

course of the conflict in syria

hezbollah has largely become involved in

the syrian conflict

so that means from a geopolitical

perspective

hezbollah at the moment is less focused

on

israel more focused on the conflict in

syria and therefore from a geopolitical

perspective

at least temporarily more relevant to

the syrian conflict

than to a former conflict between

hezbollah and

israel that of course does not mean

that tomorrow everything may change and

hezbollah may

refocus all of their efforts on israel

but

given its its interests its direct

interest in syria

that only complicates the geopolitics of

syria

so that's obviously a segway to the

civil war

in syria and how that impacts the

geopolitics

not only intra regionally but clearly

inter-regionally

if not internationally

a number of years ago i was invited to

testify on the syrian conflict

before the dutch parliament the question

that

the dutch parliament asked me was the

following

should the european union or in this

case should holland

provide arms to quote moderate

syrian terrorist organizations

rebels guerrillas whatever term of art

one wishes to use

in preparing my testimony before the

dutch parliament

i focused on the following how do you

define a moderate

group and even if you provide arms only

to a moderate group

what's the guarantee that the moderate

group a won't become extremist tomorrow

or b that it won't transfer its weapons

to a terror to an extremist organization

so i recommended to the dutch parliament

that the netherlands

not provide arms to any syrian group

self-described moderate and certainly

not self-described extremist

but if we think about the conflict in

syria which has raged for a number of

years

which has led to hundreds upon thousands

of

innocent civilians being killed a

tragedy

that is beyond tragic

if we think about the number of foreign

actors engaged in the conflict

that is the manifestation of the

relationship between geopolitics and

terrorism

both the united states and russia

perhaps haltingly limpingly

stumbling sought to interfere intervene

in an effort to bring an end to the

syrian civil war

the effort ultimately was unsuccessful

because

clearly both the united states and

russia

had different and distinct interests

which they could not sufficiently or

satisfactionally resolve

in order to work together to resolve the

conflict

from a geopolitical perspective then

syria is very important to our

conversation

because it highlights the following a

terrible conflict

that sucks in major international powers

particularly russia and the united

states with the lines

or the sides not clearly marked meaning

there's not clear demarcation

between which side or who's on whose

side who represents whom

who's fighting on behalf of whom and we

need to recall

that in addition to the syrian rebel

groups

and the presence of of or the interests

of the united states and of russia

there also happens to be a syrian

government

that is in control of at least part of

syria

and the syrian government which is

committing endless amount of war crimes

causing unimaginable damage and horrors

to the syrian population

but it is a legitimate government or at

least legitimate in its own

eyes legitimate in the eyes of most

nations

of the world never say all but from a

geopolitical perspective the fact that

there is a syrian government

that is engaged in killing its own

civilians

has also played a role in again bringing

in

the united states russia various ngos

in order to try to bring an end to the

conflict

but because it is largely impossible

to differentiate or to articulate the

difference between a moderate group and

an extremist group

the syrian government is able to play

literally all sides against each other

and thereby staying in power

add to the complexity the fact that isis

is playing is playing an important role

in the syrian

conflict and given the fact that

most not all most nation states

view isis as posing the greatest danger

to stability in the middle east the

syrian conflict must then

be viewed not only as intra-syrian in

terms of the rebel groups in syria

but note inter-regional because of the

active presence of isis

and because isis has clearly articulated

that its primary purpose the primary

goal is the re-establishment of the

islamic caliphate

we cannot view their presence in syria

as

limited slash restricted only to syria

we must understand that isis's goals go

far

beyond syria

what accentuates and exacerbates the

tension and conflict

obviously is the following syrian

refugees

are spreading or syrians as refugees are

spreading

whether it's to jordan whether it's to

europe but particularly for our purposes

for the moment

to turkey means that the presence of

syrian refugees

in turkey means that the syrian conflict

again in the context of geopolitics

because it now goes outside of syria

because of the refugee question

also brings turkey into the geopolitical

discussion

so if you look at the map of syria and

you ask yourself what resources are

there in syria

the answer is largely none but

look what has happened because of the

conflict in syria because of the number

of terrorist organizations

and because of the active role played by

isis in syria

there are three major powers that have a

stake in what's happening in syria

if not four three for sure united states

russia turkey and the fourth would be

israel which has largely if not

not quite exclusively but largely stayed

out of the conflict

saying the syrian internal conflict is

for syria to resolve

but there's obviously um something

disingenuous about that

given that the syrian conflict is now

inter-regional because of the presence

of syrian refugees in turkey because of

the presence

in syria of isis and because of the

potential danger posed to israel

by terrorist organizations in syria

let's continue the discussion there is

no doubt

that before bin laden was killed by

the navy seals that one of his primary

goals efforts was to undermine if not

overthrow

the saudi the regime in saudi arabia

the impact on geopolitics

if bin laden had been successful in al

qaeda had been successful

in undermining overthrowing weakening

this the saudi regime

from a geopolitical perspective is

enormous

obviously given the oil reserves in in

saudi arabia

given that it's like literally like a

house of cards if saudi arabia falls

would the other gulf states fall how

would that impact

obviously oil reserves how would that

impact the international

economy so again think about it not only

intra regionally not only inter

regionally but clearly internationally

so i would suggest

that had as an example had al qaeda been

successful

in undermining the saudi regime

the impact on the international economy

would have been

more than enormous may well have

required the united states

to come to the aid of the saudi regime

keep in mind that the saudi government

is the beneficiary of an enormous

arsenal from the united states military

there are deep concerns as to the sonic

military capability does it know

the difference it's not enough to have

the arms you also have to be capable in

how you use them

so while the united states has provided

arms to

the saudis over the years and the best

of the best and the most sophisticated

of american military of

american hardware that does not

automatically translate

to saudi capability in terms of using

the weapons

so if again hypothetically

bin laden would have been successful in

penetrating into saudi arabia

and undermining or potentially

undermining the saudi regime

from a geopolitical perspective we would

need to ask ourselves

would that then justify or would have

justified an american president whoever

it may have been

to come to saudi arabia's aid with not

only advisors

but actually with american servicemen in

saudi arabia in order to

assist the saudis in putting down bin

laden

it's obviously not the first time the

united states has come

to the aid of a country in the middle

east i take us all

back to the first iraq war where when

after saddam hussein attacked

kuwait the americans clearly took the

fight to the to saddam hussein

as we say the rest is history but what's

really

important then is to understand in the

context of the larger geopolitics

that the impact of terrorism today

is far more significant than it had been

in years past

and we therefore need to understand the

interlinking pieces

in the context of geopolitics

one of the interesting aspects of

geopolitics is

how reality makes for quote-unquote

strange bedfellows

and the best example is the following a

couple of years ago

during the last conflict or one of the

last conflicts between israel and

hamas there was an almost peace

settlement peace agreement imposed on

hamas

by israel the palestinian authority

and egypt interesting think about it

look at a map

and you'll see israel and hamas are in

conflict

the palestinian authority which is

distinct from hamas

reaches the conclusion that this does

not serve the interests of the

palestinian authority

brings to the table both israel to end

the conflict

and the and egypt remember what i told

you earlier about what happens in hamas

and gaza impacts egypt the three parties

come together

to articulate a way to end the conflict

between israel

and hamas

at the last minute that very interesting

um agreement particularly interesting

given that three different entities that

generally don't have the best of

relations

came together for a very specific

purpose

at the end of the day unfortunately that

agreement did not come

to fruition why

because secretary of state kerry

preferred an alternative agreement that

had been

put together by qatar and turkey

but note in the context of geopolitics

the following

the turkish qatari agreement arrangement

did not include israel as part of the

discussions

did not include the palestinian

authority as part of the discussions

obviously did not include egypt as part

of the discussions

and secretary of state carries

unfortunate decision to support the

turkish qatari agreement

at the expense of this very interesting

three-part

puzzle between israel the palestinian

authority and

egypt from my perspective reflected a

lack of understanding of long-term

geopolitical possibilities

because always remember that out of bad

situations for if the cards are played

correctly

good things can happen needless to say

israel and hamas rejected the turkish

qatari agreement

the conflict while ultimately coming to

an end from my perspective in the

context of geopolitics

a very important opportunity was missed

when we think about the middle east we

need to also ask ourselves

what is the middle east and who does the

middle east include today

if we would have had discussion this

discussion 20 years ago

safe to assume we would have discussed

five countries israel

egypt jordan syria lebanon

and perhaps saudi arabia so that's five

or six

most experts when they look at the

middle east today

don't only talk about the middle east

but they use a new term called

mena menas middle east north africa

which means extending from north africa

through the traditional middle east

and perhaps even as far out as

afghanistan perhaps

down to saudi arabia the emirates plus

minus it's between 20 to 22 countries

that means then in the context of

geopolitics

and the relationship between non-state

and non-state between state actors

and non-state actors the situation is

far more complex than it used to be

it also requires therefore state leaders

to do the following

a to narrowly define their

their interests because how you define

your interest is also how you will

apply your interests two problematic

examples

one i remind all of us that the united

states as

after gaddafi fell in libya the united

states intervened along with other

countries in libya

that's in direct contrast to at the end

of the day not really involving

themselves in syria

in the context of geopolitics and the

requirement

the recommendation that i make to you to

truly understand the relationship

between the state and the non-state

actors

why the united states involved itself in

libya as compared to why the united

states didn't involve itself in syria

is a very important issue for you to

examine

because it highlights how interests are

defined

and then how interests are applied

in that sense i also remind all of us

that president obama drew the mythical

red line that if the syrian government

will engage in in biological weapons and

mustard gas and cross that magical line

then the united states will intervene so

yes the syrian government did

exactly what was clear they were going

to do and no

president obama didn't respond to that

note then in the context of geopolitics

and particularly with respect to

rogue regimes like syria and clearly

with respect to terrorist organizations

if a nation like the united states draws

that line in the sand

says if this line is crossed such and

such and such and such will happen

and if the na rogue state and or

terrorist organization

crosses that line and the nation state

doesn't respond

it is clearly a message that the nation

state

is good at rhetoric good perhaps at

robust

rhetoric but does not deliver quote

unquote the goods

from a geopolitical perspective it sends

the following messages

we engage in rhetoric

but we resist the actual engagement

sending a message to the other side

that can be interpreted as weakness

a failure to stand behind your words

and because terrorist organizations and

rural countries barbara countries like

syria

are engaged at all times in reading the

tea leaves and i'm trying to understand

exactly what was meant

as compared to what was done i would

suggest that president obama's

again drawing up that line that red line

in the sand

and that not standing behind it sent

absolutely the wrong message to

terrorist organizations

that it indicated that when push comes

to become when push comes to shove

the united states will not stand behind

its word

in the context of geopolitics that

is again from my perspective a profound

mistake because again note this very

complicated

three-part aspect to geopolitics

terrorism in the middle east

intra-regional inter-regional

and international and in the

internationalization of the geopolitics

to really understand this you have to

view this as a

jigsaw puzzle and it requires you go

back to the three objectives

i gave you the very beginning i'm going

to repeat them because you must

understand this lecture

in the context of these three one

the clear relationship between terrorism

and geopolitics the second is the

relationship

between states and non-states

clearly at the moment the most profound

non-state actor in the middle east is

isis so you need to be able to examine

from a geopolitical perspective

the relationship between isis and the

united states

isis and russia isis and turkey

and isis in syria and the four the third

issue that you must be able to resolve

and discuss and resolve

is the geopolitics of the middle east

but when you do so i warmly recommend

that you not limit yourself

to the middle east narrowly defined but

rather to the

broader middle east because that's the

way that you most effectively

will be able to understand what i refer

to as the interlocking pieces

amongst the nations again intra inter

and international i would suggest

that when you think about these three

objectives in the years to come

the geopolitics of the middle east

because of

terrorism will become far more

complicated

because of the increasing visibility

role

of outside actors not only the united

states

obviously not only russia not only

russia

is it possible for instance that the

chinese would become interested in the

middle east

while that is presently an unknown i

would certainly suggest

in the context of geopolitics that you'd

be very sensitive

to the increasing or rather the possibly

increasing role

of major powers who view their

self-interest

as relevant to the middle east and their

need to protect their self-interest

and how that plays off with respect to

again terrorism

role countries and the international

community