The Biggest Bitcoin Warning Yet | WTF Is Going On With The ETFs?
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Nicholas Meron from DataDash discusses the current state of the crypto market as of September 16th, 2024. He emphasizes the importance of Bitcoin's price action, noting the establishment of higher lows but concern over the lack of higher highs. Meron alerts viewers to the significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which contradicts the narrative of institutional capital driving a new bull market. He also analyzes the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, expressing skepticism about the持续性 of the AI narrative in the market and warning of potential pullbacks in overhyped sectors like AI and meme coins.
Takeaways
- 📅 The video is from September 16th, 2024, discussing current crypto market trends.
- 📉 There's a concern over Bitcoin's price action, with lower highs and a struggle to reclaim moving averages.
- 🐂 The crypto market is at a critical juncture, with bulls needing to show strength or risk further decline.
- ⚠️ A significant narrative in the crypto space is the lack of ETF inflows, which is contrary to expectations of a new bull market.
- 🤔 The presenter is baffled by the lack of discussion around the importance of ETF inflows for Bitcoin's price direction.
- 📈 The video discusses the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, with many showing weak price action.
- 📊 The presenter highlights the importance of watching moving averages to understand market momentum and potential.
- 💡 A warning is issued about the potential for large sellers to distribute their holdings in the market, affecting prices.
- 🚫 The presenter advises caution, suggesting that now might not be the best time to heavily invest in the market due to lack of clear upward momentum.
- 🔄 The video concludes with a call to focus on data and price action, and to be patient for market opportunities.
Q & A
What is the main concern Nicholas Meron raises about the current state of Bitcoin?
-Nicholas Meron is concerned about the lack of ETF inflows into Bitcoin, which he sees as a key narrative that could have led to a new bull market but is not showing up, potentially impacting the price negatively.
What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the price action of Bitcoin?
-Nicholas Meron suggests that Bitcoin has established a higher low but is still establishing lower highs, indicating a critical moment for the bulls to show up and reclaim the 21-day moving average.
What is the significance of the 21-day moving average in the current Bitcoin market context according to Nicholas Meron?
-The 21-day moving average is significant because it represents a potential support level for Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin cannot hold above this moving average, it may lead to a breakdown and further decline in price.
Why is the ETF inflow situation concerning according to Nicholas Meron?
-Nicholas Meron is concerned because the ETF inflows, which were expected to bring institutional capital into Bitcoin, are showing net outflows instead. This could indicate a lack of institutional buying pressure and might contribute to a bearish market.
What does Nicholas Meron think about the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin?
-Nicholas Meron believes that altcoins are not showing the desired outperformance against Bitcoin, which is a concern as it suggests a lack of momentum and potential for further downside.
What is Nicholas Meron's stance on the current AI narrative in the market?
-While Nicholas Meron acknowledges the potential of AI and its disruptive impact, he advises caution and suggests waiting for clear signs of market momentum before getting involved in AI-related plays.
Why does Nicholas Meron mention the importance of waiting for price momentum before investing in altcoins?
-Nicholas Meron emphasizes waiting for price momentum because many altcoins are showing lower highs and lack clear upward trends, which could indicate a risky investment environment without a strong bullish signal.
What does Nicholas Meron suggest about the current state of Ethereum and its future prospects?
-Nicholas Meron suggests that Ethereum is struggling, with a broken 100-month moving average and a lack of innovation in the DeFi space, which might lead to further price decline.
What is Nicholas Meron's view on the role of institutional capital in the crypto market?
-Nicholas Meron views institutional capital as a significant factor in the crypto market's price dynamics. He is concerned that the absence of institutional buying, as indicated by ETF outflows, could lead to a bearish trend.
How does Nicholas Meron analyze the current market conditions for stocks and equities in relation to the AI narrative?
-Nicholas Meron analyzes the current market conditions by looking at the performance of companies like Nvidia and the FANG stocks, noting their resilience and the potential for a correction after a period of rallying based on the AI narrative.
Outlines
📈 Crypto Market Analysis and Bitcoin's Key Narratives
Nicholas Meron from DataDash discusses the state of the crypto market as of September 16th, 2024. He emphasizes the lack of discussion around Bitcoin's key narratives that could influence a new bull market. Meron focuses on price action, altcoin performances relative to Bitcoin, and the AI narrative. He highlights the importance of the 21-day moving average and the potential for a market downturn if certain support levels aren't maintained. Meron also expresses concern over the lack of ETF inflows into Bitcoin, suggesting that this could be a significant factor in the market's performance.
📉 ETF Outflows and the Impact on Bitcoin's Price
Meron delves into the issue of ETF outflows and their potential impact on Bitcoin's price. He discusses the significance of the outflows from products like GBTC and iBIT, noting that these outflows are changing the supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin. Despite some people dismissing the importance of GBTC outflows, Meron argues that they are crucial. He raises concerns about the lack of institutional capital coming into Bitcoin and the potential for a market downturn if this trend continues, also touching on the broader implications for altcoins.
🚀 The Struggle of Altcoins and the Search for Innovation
Nicholas Meron addresses the struggle of altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, against the backdrop of Bitcoin's performance. He criticizes the lack of innovation in the DeFi space and the inability of altcoins to outpace Bitcoin's performance. Meron points out that many altcoins are showing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. He advises caution, suggesting that investors should wait for clearer signs of an uptrend before investing in altcoins.
📊 Analyzing Market Trends and the Dangers of Insider Selling
Meron continues his analysis by discussing the broader market trends, including the performance of equities and the potential impact of the AI narrative on the market. He warns of the dangers of insider selling in the crypto industry, suggesting that many projects lack strong fundamentals and that insiders are distributing their tokens to unsuspecting investors. He advises a cautious approach, emphasizing the importance of waiting for clear signs of market momentum before investing.
💹 The AI Narrative in Tech Stocks and Crypto
Nicholas Meron explores the AI narrative's influence on tech stocks like Nvidia and the broader market, comparing it to Bitcoin's performance. He discusses the potential for AI to drive market disruptions but also cautions about the historical patterns of market corrections following periods of rapid growth. Meron suggests that investors should be aware of these patterns and consider waiting for clearer signs of sustained market momentum before making investment decisions.
🔍 The Importance of Data and Price Action in Crypto Investing
In the final paragraph, Meron reiterates the importance of focusing on data and price action when investing in crypto. He reflects on the past few months of Bitcoin ETF outflows and the need for investors to be objective and patient. Meron stresses that the market should dictate investment opportunities, and investors should avoid making impulsive decisions based on bias or hype.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡Bull market
💡Altcoins
💡ETF inflows and outflows
💡Moving averages
💡Price action
💡Capitulation
💡DeFi (Decentralized Finance)
💡Meme coins
💡AI narrative
Highlights
Nicholas Meron discusses a potential breaking news narrative in the crypto space that could impact a new bull market for Bitcoin.
Emphasis on the importance of price action and its critical role in determining market trends.
Analysis of Bitcoin's recent price movement, highlighting the establishment of higher lows and the struggle to establish higher highs.
Discussion on the significance of Bitcoin reclaiming the 21-day moving average after a month.
Concerns about the potential breakdown of Bitcoin's price if it cannot hold above the 21-day moving average.
The role of ETF inflows and outflows in influencing Bitcoin's price and market sentiment.
Surprise at the lack of discussion around ETF outflows despite their importance to the market.
Detailed examination of ETF inflows and outflows for Bitcoin, including specific product analysis.
Critique of the current state of altcoins and their performance against Bitcoin.
Warning about the potential overvaluation and insider selling in the altcoin market.
Analysis of Ethereum's price action and its struggle with long-term moving averages.
Concerns about the lack of innovation in the cryptocurrency space and its impact on market momentum.
Discussion on the performance of Fetch, one of the few altcoins showing promise in the market.
Advice on trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of waiting for clear market momentum before investing.
Comparison of the current market situation with historical data to predict potential future trends.
Final thoughts on the importance of focusing on data and price action rather than personal bias when trading in the market.
Transcripts
what's going on everyone my name is
Nicholas meron here from data Dash and
today is September 16th of 2024 well
folks I hope you all are having a
fantastic day wherever you are because
in today's video I got to bring you guys
what I would feel is breaking news in
the crypto space something that I think
is really imperative to discuss but I'm
seeing little to no one talking about
and it has to do with one of the key
signifying narratives of Bitcoin and
what people hope believe hopefully
believe could lead into a new bull
market but is simply not showing up
we're going to be talking about that as
we go throughout today's video I want to
dive into the price action which is the
most critical element but we'll also be
talking about altcoins we're going to be
talking about how they're performing
against Bitcoin we're going to talk
about the AI narrative the whole shebang
we're going to do a full macro Monday if
you guys happen to enjoy my rambling
consider dropping a like it's a great
way to support the channel grab a cup of
coffee and let's go ahead and kick
things off so I want to start here by
talking about price action here guys so
far at the moment was nice that we have
been able to establish what appears to
be a higher low here versus the August
lows here in early September but we are
still so far establishing lower highs
this may change over the next couple
days Bulls are at really a make or break
moment where they've got to show up here
I can't emphasize this enough we have
finally for the first time in nearly a
month reclaimed the 21-day moving
average and after facing some resistance
at a lower price point of the 100 day
are seeing whether or not after this
3-day pullback that we can find support
and make that momentum moving average
our friending and it can make a baseline
of support for price to accelerate
higher and get back to New all-time
highs if that can't happen if we cannot
hold in the 21-day as we've echoed
before this is likely going to break
through and will probably go through the
prior lows we've seen as the lows have
been accelerating the capitulation been
building up and we could whip saw down
here into the 200 we moving average
which again can very well happen I know
some people think that's too pessimistic
too bearish well if you do hear me out
on this right while I do believe that
there's a chance the Bulls could reclaim
and we're going to wait and see if it
can get above those moving averages from
there that would be maybe my point I
Look to start maybe building some
positions or maybe we wait for the break
on the previous all-time highs
especially if you're trading altcoins
like us the big thing I want to bring
your attention to and I'm I'm baffled I
don't see many people really talking
about this and sending off the alarm
Bells because so many people were
talking about it as the key Narrative of
this cycle that this alongside the
having event was going to send Bitcoin
to $100,000 maybe even 200,000 and of
course if you believe the permes and
people who are using the same time
tested methods because it's what they've
always relied on like Plan B Etc who are
telling you the bitcoin's going to
500,000 you know do that is what you
will I'm here to give you guys something
that I think is very critical to analyze
and it's something that is very easy to
forget about unless you're really
meticulous about watching it and and
that is the ETF inflows and I understand
some people may say I'm beating it like
a dead horse some people might be
wondering Nick this is boring why are we
talking about the ETF inflows the reason
we're talking about is because we got to
get down to some fundamental questions
and we're going to get to it in a moment
but we need to ask some serious
questions here if ETF inflows are not
showing up to the plate and that's what
I want to talk about here today if you
take a look here this is the U
essentially bi-weekly
analysis of uh this basically it's
monthly but so far uh we're seeing the
bi-weekly increase or increase of
Bitcoin across the board in these ETP
products and what we see here very
clearly is that across the board we have
a net outflow again and a pretty
significant one right around 5 to 6,000
Bitcoin being pulled out now I
understand a lot of people say Nick like
you know these are two weeks here maybe
things changed towards the end of the
week and this is probably just gbtc
outflows but I want to take time to
break it down because it can be very
easy to miss that if you take a look at
even ibit this is the Premier the
premier ETF for Bitcoin we can see here
that with ibit we have less than a
couple Bitcoin being added here right in
fact oh te actually technically here no
yeah I I was seeing that right here
before essentially this is a net outflow
I apologize so I B actually saw weekly
outflows
35759 Bitcoin down to 357 277 and yes
you've got gbtc outflows playing a role
in that but that's about half of the
story you've got ibit outflows you've
got
a Fidelity in this case or fbtc seeing
significant outflows and of course you
have some ETFs here that are seeing
slight increases but net overall it's
about half of it coming from the other
ATP products as well as another half
from gbtc now I want to make one thing
clear here a lot of people negate gbtc
and say that this doesn't matter it
absolutely does and I I want to make
that very Crystal Clear guys there are
things where we can debate about things
we can kind of have differences of
opinion the gbtc outflows irrespective
of if the Bitcoin are going to other ETP
products or is being withdrawn is
absolutely changing the supply and
demand Dynamic of Bitcoin right this was
the original spot ETP product it was an
exchange traded note converted into an
ETF once all the ETFs got approved by
the SEC irrespective though if there is
Bitcoin outflowing from this ETP product
it's got to go somewhere hopefully it
goes into one of the other ETP products
which is what I think in many cases is
happening because there's lower
management fees but even with that
it is still removing spot Bitcoin that
was already being held in these ETP
products in some cases there is a clear
outflow from the Genesis bankruptcy Etc
but here's the kicker right it's okay if
we see the other ETFs coming in and
seeing the increase basically absorbing
that Bitcoin and maybe taking on new
liquidity outside the market but what
we're seeing now is not just gbtc we're
seeing ibit we're seeing Fidelity the
most premier ETP products actually
seeing net outflows in significant ones
this should be sending alarm Bells I
don't care if someone's bullish or
bearish this is very concerning here
because at the end of the day well we
like to sit here and say we don't need
Wall Street Bitcoin is all about you
know decentralization let's get the big
Banks out right some people were against
the ETP products coming out and
institutions getting involved in Bitcoin
from a moral perspective if you are
coming to me on this channel guys as
much as I love Bitcoin for the
philosophical reasons that you do at the
same time we are talking about market
price and market price is not some
hypothetical thing it is a equilibrium
or or in a balance between supply and
demand and you've got to ask the
important question of if the ETF
products are not coming to save the day
if we do not have institutional Capital
coming and in fact institutional capital
is becoming that seller then who is
going to be the
buyer some will say dollar cost
averagers who are buying on coinbase uh
you know some family funds hedge funds
whatever guys we got to be real here we
are exhausted from our inflows into this
market right and it's been like this for
a while in fact over the next two weeks
if we don't really get back up here to
92,000 Bitcoin we will have essentially
outflowed Bitcoin from the ETB products
for nearly two months it's already Mon
and a half here right since back in Late
July towards the close of the month
so I I don't know how to paint this in
any different picture I wish I could be
more optimistic about it but you see
very clearly that this is having an
impact on price here and you've got a
lot of large sellers like the US
government that might continue to unload
you got Mount gaau distributions that
still going through at that moment a lot
of people who probably withdrew and
still haven't sold right that still
could play a weighing effect on
bitcoin's price here and I I want to
emphasize that again altcoins are not
you know void of this criticism in fact
they're even more of a concern for me
personally if Bitcoin isn't able to
really formulate an uptrend of higher
lows and higher highs because if Bitcoin
can't do that altcoins which are still
setting in lower highs here slightly
higher lows right this could easily
continue to break back down we are
getting way too comfortable with the 200
we moving average and I would expect a
lot more resiliency at this level a lot
more buyers coming in but to be fair
with the ETF inflows looking or outflows
for that matter looking the way they are
I can understand why altcoins are not
really catching a bid and people aren't
buying them up right these are things
that again we talk about within the
newsletter we also have our our midon
webinar coming up here guys uh later on
today if you guys want to sign up for
the dash report it's our newsletter here
on the channel we've been really trying
to warn about this trying to take a look
at it from a data perspective over the
last couple of months and a lot of our
momentum moving averages as well as some
of our key indicators that we utilize
are starting to Signal some warning
signs around bitcoin's price if you guys
want to get access to these additional
insights it's less than a dollar a day
less than a cup of coffee it's a great
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again you guys get a whole range of
different things you can join the
webinar ask me some questions dive into
the charts we'll look at some of your
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out the link down below again just
overall it's a great way to support the
channel and you get a ton of great
additional content but getting back to
this key like thesis here of of markets
really struggling at the moment we take
a look at alt coins especially in their
Bitcoin comparative pairs right it could
be one thing you know Bitcoins train up
a little bit of course all coins are
going up a little bit terms we care
about whether or not altcoins are
outpacing Bitcoin because if they aren't
we don't want to touch them with a 10-ft
pole why hold something that's going to
pay you less than the King right than
Bitcoin which is a very kind of probably
the safest play in crypto the most time
tested right we see ethereum here I
think ethereum is having a real uh
identity crisis right now uh the base
ecosystem as well as hundreds of layer
twos have just completely eaten alive uh
any kind of demand for eth uh not to
mention as well at the end of day I
understand some people say there are
positive feedback loop for E I think at
the end of the day guys defi as a
category all these even all these l2s
out there there are no new exciting
applications the space has not seen any
dramatic Innovation over the last couple
years and I really can't name you one
application I've had to use in the last
couple months where I was just like wow
Game Changer got to got to get excited
and bullish back crypto because of this
I remember back in defi summer I
remember back all
during the io era where the sky was the
limit everything was going to be
disrupted by blockchain and now I think
reality set in and the lack of
innovation is just is just abundantly
apparent and the way I know this is the
fact that we broke the 100 month moving
average back in the Summers we pointed
out in this channel it's not looking
good for E we have broken the long-term
multi-year line of support we struggled
and treated it as resistance rather than
support and have since then set lower
highs and lower lows I think that this
is just going to continue chartering
down until we get some significant Trend
reversal of some sort that signifies
that this trend this downtrend is over
I'm not touching it the same goes with
soul I mean salana obviously is in a
slightly better spot because it has all
the meme coin volume it was obviously an
upand cominging play in the last cycle
and many people believe that it could go
to new highs in this cycle we have not
broken our previous BTC highs from back
in September and November
2021 and since then it's looking like
the same game drawn out game of
distribution large insiders who bought
large stakehold of salana from the Ft
FTX bankruptcy I think are just cashing
in slowly and steady not to scare people
to still give people hope that this
thing can start to Charter higher well
you need not look further than the
actual price action we have not only
been stalling since back in December of
2023 so we are coming up here in a
couple months it will be a year but it's
well over 9 to 10 months now and now we
are struggling to we're actually using
the 200 day as resistance big change
from back here that was the point where
people were buying right sometimes not
even letting it touch the 200 day this
blue lines here that's now acting as
resistance and you got the 200 week
sitting right here real pretty waiting
for a retest not to mention at a range
of resistance back here in November 2023
and to put it in perspective to talk
about why this is so significant that's
another 25 27 or 28% correction so you
do not want to be buying into something
that's clear really showing no signs of
life and looks like it could easily pull
back here to a range that it's tested
back in the past year this was Prior
price ret testment back here resistance
maybe it can turn that into support
we'll see let's wait let's wait around
and see and maybe I'm wrong maybe it
starts trending up today I don't really
care about picking up these prices I
want to wait until it gets above those
moving averages and actually shows that
it's got some life to it I want to set
some standards here so I preserve and
protect my capital and it's this is like
the the kind of a big point that I want
to Echo guys is that so far the large
caps are looking really bad you're
seeing that some of the small caps in
certain narratives are are doing you
know pretty well considering this
environment but again even in the hot
narratives that we're excited about like
Bitcoin infrastructure dpen or AI
related plays meme coins some of the big
narratives we're focused on they're not
showing what we need to see just yet
Stacks while yes I love that it's been
neutral since June of 2024 against
Bitcoin so it's not bleeding at the
moment we are still seeing that it's
struggling at that 100 day moving
average same exact thing as the last few
times it was not able to break through
there it's another point of distribution
makes me think here that we're coming
down here at a minimum to this line of
support again and are just going to
continue consolidating for a while no
serious Trend ordinals against Bitcoin
or Ori right pretty much neutral since
where it was back in May which is good
right we're not in a significant
downtrend like we were back in the past
and we are given the foundation maybe
having a chance to break through we're
on that 21 moving average but the 21-day
is pretty neutral we're just again going
sideways we're not trending higher and
using that 21 days as real support for
higher lows and higher highs so I'm not
in any serious rush to try to to try to
bet that this is an official bottom here
and that it's just going to Trend up
from here I don't mind paying a slight
premium I want to make sure that there's
momentum I want to set real standards
here before I'm going to be building
positions and we can see this across the
board in other Bitcoin infrastructure
plays you know you're getting these kind
of small pop offs in Zeta chain for
example we had a really nice run up back
here in August faded all of those gains
we got a smaller move yesterday on
Sunday and it just seems like we just
can't even catch a serious bid any
opportunity where markets are moving
higher someone is selling and this again
is something that I'm going to Echo here
is a very important Point guys there are
so many altcoins out there um you know
there are so many different you know
loose narratives that really don't have
any fundamentals backing them up Beyond
even just meme coins and I want you guys
to keep in mind that anytime there's
upward price action and you're seeing
people selling which establishes these
kind of lower highs and lower lows that
lets you know that there are a ton of
insiders who were selling you on the
idea that it's going to go to some price
and they are slowly but steadily
Distributing getting rid of their
positions VCS Angel Investors insiders
in the
team they have every incentive to do it
that you know they want to get out
before the other people's tokens unlock
and that's how thing has been working
for the last couple years just launch a
new token slowly but steadily sell it
make millions of dollars that's what
that's what essentially they're doing
and unfortunately it's so sad that if
you if you don't really focus on
fundamental projects that have real good
token economics they're trying to do
something real you can easily get
trapped in these projects U there are
more serious plays I would say like
render but even render here lower highs
still we caught a slightly higher low
here but the fade on that recent High
was really bad not to mention it looks
like we're rolling back over we can't
hold in the 21-day not a good look here
any potential I'm not really want to
look for support lines in such a short
period of time but if you were looking
for one there maybe a wedge pattern here
between the previous points of
resistance right kind of rough there but
you can see what I'm kind of getting at
didn't hold it broke through not a good
sign to see so that for me is a really
big warning sign for the dpin narrative
U we can see here fetch one of the
strongest place here in the market we
wrote about this in the dash report as
one of our trade setups back I think in
in July or in August um I think it's was
back in July and stuff we were kind of
talking about this as a range really for
the past couple months we really fixated
on fetch being a play that could show
some serious promise here at this range
and what you know so far that's really
paid off for those who took the trade uh
we are now testing up at the 200 a one
of the few alt coins that's actually
doing this and it's well above its
21-day moving average and it's had
multiple retests on that 21-day moving
average on good vol
so this is one of the few silver
lightings here in the market one of the
few plays that actually looks kind of
nice um but if I go here through meme
coins right but they are still
struggling here if we take a look on the
daily time frame just going sideways
turning the 200 day which could have
been support before into clear
resistance no serious ability to get
above the 21-day moving average it's
just price analysis guys the moving
averages don't lie I'm not trying to be
negative or criticize these but keep in
mind these meme coins guys I'm all about
trading the trend we made great money
back when there was a ton of liquidity
in the space back in q1 we we made we
just kept going from mcoin to mcoin
spotted a lot of great charts made some
great returns risked minimal capital and
make great returns overall for our
portfolios but if the momentum isn't
there and you've got tens of billions of
dollars of supposed value in mem coins
that gives a lot of opportunity for the
Insiders who create these things to just
slowly distribute and unload positions
into any optimism any liquidity that's
willing to come in and speculate that's
the exit liquidity for insiders uh and
it's clearly showing that they don't
have much confident in this confidence
in this market if they did then they
would be holding and selling at a much
higher price range but they're doing it
down here rather than up here what does
that tell you it tells you that they've
got a lot of empty bags of sand and
they're ready to sell it to you I I I
know it sounds cynical I know it sounds
mean I'm just here to let you know that
there are some really nasty players in
the crypto industry and they will do
that and if you can observe the clear
lack of fundamentals and exciting
there's the lack of momentum versus say
2017 or 2021 and the lack of new money
and new participants coming in I think
they smell blood in the water and I
think you should too until we see those
signs momentum return guys I don't think
you should be risking so much of your
liquidity in this market and we can see
that across the board both in Bitcoin
the broader indices the large caps like
ethereum and salana and you can see it
in practic Ally any altcoin you want to
take a look at in the market there are
very few exceptions fetch maybe being
one of them right so I just say that as
a bit of a warning here and I also
wouldn't just bring this criticism onto
crypto you know there's obviously the
talking point of equities you know so
far equities are holding up relatively
resiliently around the AI narrative
Nvidia for example is really just uh you
know a couple percentage points away
from its PRI high it's been around $120
a share previous high was at 140 we're
not even coming down to touch that 200
day moving average but seeing the same
signs here I want to make it very clear
if we step back in history here to what
we saw at Bitcoin the inability to
really make the 21-day your friend right
you can see here same thing here with
uptrends when you really get to that
Breakaway right when you're really in an
uptrend the 21 days where price should
be bouncing and so long as it's riding
on there you're going to have Gap UPS
you're going to have continued
acceleration price to the upside that's
what you want to see that's where the
fund really begins right see it over
here is what we saw over here but when
there's Cho at that 21 day when you're
kind of waxing and waning slowly kind of
going and peing and troughing over that
21 day and a kind of waving
formation that gives me a couple of
early warning signs that I should be a
little bit cautious it doesn't mean that
this can't reclaim and and whip allw
higher right we saw that over here right
we were able to turn the 100 day into
support multiple times finally we
squeezed up higher here and then we
start another uptrend but it's always a
cause for a little bit of concern the
semiconductor again similar to back in
that same time range like in October
2023 it's coming down in that 200 day
twice here right we've still got a ways
to go before we get to those highs uh we
still got to test the 100 day and see if
we can set in a higher high here versus
the one back in August so again there
are some signs here not to mention Fang
this is something that I think you guys
should really be made aware of the Fang
index which is Facebook Amazon Netflix
and Google right so we're not talking
about apple or Microsoft here or or
Tesla but these companies these stocks
here had one of their biggest bottom to
top
uptrends like the one from here in 2016
here to 2018 here from December 2018
here to August 2021 we had the biggest
one here from November 20122 here to the
new all-time highs in July around 212%
183% before
162% so Fang stocks have recovered
extensively off of the AI hype and the
broader AI narrative Silicon Valley is
shoving AI down everyone's throat and
while I do think that there's definitely
some exciting potential here yes I do
believe chat TBT and generative AI has
some place in this world as a piece of
technology and I think that there's
definitely that ability for us to have
some kind of s-curve moment where AI
Innovation really accelerates and it
disrupts the world in a really big way
right I want you to keep cautious about
these shortterm intervals here within
markets these kind of 2-year rallies
that we have that are usually met with
pretty harsh Corrections if we don't
look at it both ways and understand that
these can go through some pretty harsh
pullbacks here a 38% pullback here a 60%
pullback I don't know what we could see
here realistically maybe even it's a
smaller one maybe we just come down to
the prior highs here still 25 26%
correction could be pretty brutal for
some people it' be best to be buying and
when there's actual clear signs of
momentum right now we are chopping
sideways we have no serious Trend you
you can wait here until it break a 300
if you really think that this is going
to accelerate higher and wait for
serious signs momentum or you can wait
for lower prices that's really the name
of the game here we don't want to buy
when there's chop in the market it's not
fun it's not clear it's not easy we
don't want that um and another thing
here as well is obviously our historic
line I I've talked about it many times I
know some might be tired of me bringing
it up but I will keep bringing up here
because because it wasn't relevant back
in 2022 and 2023 it is now we are back
up against this 995e long line of
resistance in the channel that we've
been in in the S&P 500 the S&P 500 is
probably the best index to measure the
stock market broadly speaking to measure
valuations and we can see that we are
just a few hundred points away we look
like we're ready to spring up and have a
really euphoric rally into all this rate
cut hype uh you know the rate cuts for
the fed and probably other central banks
that will follow it's got everyone
really Juiced up and excited that could
lead us here to 5900 points here on the
index the question remains when we get
there is it going to be some
breakthrough moment where we break
through and really just continue
rallying on because AI is going to be so
incredibly disruptive or are we in
accordance to history going to get shot
down at this level and have a pretty
harsh
pullback that's the ultimate question we
talked about that in last month's report
this is one of the many articles that we
put out uh where we talk about these
things actually it's in this month's
report so if you guys sign up for the
dash report you'll be able to kind kind
of read into that that's what we wrote
back in late August for the September
report this is going to be one of the
big question marks guys and there are a
few Key signs you have to look out for
in order to understand whether or not
this is really going to be a moment
where this kind of squeezes through and
goes through another year two long
hyperbolic parabolic rally here where a
lot of names do phenomenally well or if
it's going to be a period of time where
we correct lower when everyone least
expects it so anyways just to keep that
in mind here guys above all I think the
AI narrative is definitely something
that's interesting but we are going to
have to see if price action canes to
show to the play if the markets really
perceive that that narrative is still
here to stay and that the demand for
gpus the demand for data infrastructure
around AI is going to continue to pick
up um it's a very interesting thing to
to kind of keep in our radar and that'll
also play into some of the crypto AI
related plays like fetch as well as
plays like render uh that play into the
GPU market so that's it for today's
video guys again keep in mind this big
takeaways on bitcoin from Price action
to the ETF inflows or outflows in this
case I have to keep correcting myself
here Fe is weird I wouldn't have thought
we'd be seeing outflows uh multiple
times throughout the past few months um
you know considering that people really
saw this as being kind of The Floodgate
to open up money that's just been
sitting on the sidelines forever into
the Bitcoin Market I I certainly would
say that while yes we've got a couple
tens of millions of dollars here in
Bitcoin
ETFs people were talking about like it
was going to be hundreds of billions you
know coming into the space and it was
just going to be a huge Catal that was
going to drive Bitcoin up in into the
stratosphere and we are not seeing that
here so just keep that in mind here
focus on the data focus on price action
try to get your bias out of it and
that's a big area where a lot of people
are going to mess up here guys over the
next couple months we got to listen to
price and price starts trending I'll get
back on the bandwagon I'm going to start
trading in some of the old coin sectors
that we're watching that are showing
strength and we'll be able to make great
money again but we got to wait for the
market to give us that opportunity
because if you don't if you're impatient
if you let the market take advantage of
you you will lose money they will take
that liquidity from you and it's a it's
a really cold reality about markets you
got to be smart about it just here to
look out for you guys as much as I can
you got to make your own decisions at
the end of the day I appreciate you all
sticking around if you made it this far
consider dropping a like I hope you guys
enjoyed this video much love for all of
you out there and I'll see you guys in
the next video on Monday take care
everyone
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