Stock Market Correction Likely - But Not Bear Market #stockmarketcorrection #stockmarket

Summary

The speaker shares their opinion on the QQQs' potential 10% drop by May 20th, based on historical market trends and a funnel analysis. They emphasize that this is not financial advice but their personal insight, inviting others to share their thoughts. The speaker uses historical data to support their prediction and highlights the importance of community knowledge in making informed investment decisions.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker predicts a 10% drop in the QQQs (NASDAQ-100 ETF) between the current date and May 20th, possibly affecting the Dow Jones and S&P as well.
• 💬 The prediction is based on historical market behavior and a funnel chart analysis, not financial advice.
• 📈 The market is believed to be strong, driven by artificial intelligence and machine learning, despite the anticipated correction.
• 📊 The funnel chart shows that as the market narrows and drops below the lower line, it historically drops a percentage of its rise.
• 🔄 Historical patterns indicate a 38% drop over 38 weeks, a 245% rise over 96 weeks, and a 145% rise over 43 weeks.
• 📉 The most recent drop of 12% over 12 weeks suggests a potential continuation of this pattern.
• 🔢 The speaker estimates that the 10% drop will occur over the next 10 weeks.
• 📅 The expected timeline for the 10% correction is around May 20th.
• 💡 The speaker emphasizes the importance of learning from past market history to predict future movements.
• 👥 The speaker invites others to share their opinions and contribute to a collective knowledge base for better investment decisions.
• 🚌 The speaker encourages joining their 'tribe' for shared learning and investment insights, offering a discount for the Platinum level on their website.

Q & A

What is the predicted change in the QQQs between now and May 20th?

The predicted change in the QQQs is a decrease of about 10%.

What is the speaker's basis for predicting a 10% drop in the QQQs?

The speaker's basis for predicting a 10% drop is an analysis of historical market trends and a funnel chart that shows a pattern of rises and drops in the QQQs.

What does the speaker mean by having a 'belly button'?

Having a 'belly button' is a humorous way the speaker uses to say that everyone has the right to have an opinion.

What is the significance of the funnel in the chart presented by the speaker?

The funnel in the chart signifies the narrowing of the difference between higher highs and higher lows, which historically precedes a market drop.

How long did the QQQs drop after reaching a peak in March 2020?

After reaching a peak in March 2020, the QQQs dropped for 36 to 38 weeks.

What percentage did the QQQs drop during the 38-week period following the March 2020 peak?

The QQQs dropped by 38% during the 38-week period following the March 2020 peak.

What happened in the market after the QQQs dropped 38% over 38 weeks?

After the QQQs dropped 38% over 38 weeks, the market reversed and started creating higher highs and higher lows again.

What is the expected duration for the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs?

The expected duration for the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs is about 10 weeks.

What stocks have already shown significant drops that might indicate the start of the predicted 10% drop in the QQQs?

Some stocks that have already shown significant drops include Adobe (down 14%), Palantir (down 15%), Apple (down 15%), ASML (down 11%), Google (down 9%), Intel (down 16%), Meta (down 9%), Nvidia (down 8%), SMCI (down 9%), Snowflake (down 34%), and Apollo Global Management (down 24%).

How does the speaker encourage participation and contribution from the audience?

The speaker encourages participation and contribution by inviting the audience to share their opinions and knowledge, emphasizing that it's a team sport and that collective knowledge can lead to better investment decisions.

What does the speaker suggest for those interested in joining the community for stock discussions?

The speaker suggests visiting their website, Best of Us Investors, and signing up for the Platinum level to access resources like the charting tool used in the analysis, with a 50% discount for the next 90 days.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Market Prediction and Personal Opinion

The speaker shares a personal prediction that the QQQs will experience a 10% drop by May 20th, similar to what might happen to the DOW and S&P. They emphasize that this is an opinion, not financial advice, and explain their reasoning based on a stock talk from the previous day. The speaker references a funnel chart that indicates a historical pattern of market drops after a rise. They use past performance from 2022 as a basis for their extrapolation of a 10% drop and invite others to share their opinions in the comments.

05:01

📊 Analysis of Market Trends and Corrections

The speaker continues their analysis by discussing the trend of stocks on an upward trend, characterized by higher highs and lows, and how a funnel forms as the market prepares to correct. They reference historical data points from 2020 and recent market behavior to support their prediction of a 10% drop over 10 weeks. The speaker also highlights the importance of identifying market corrections and provides examples of prominent stocks that have already experienced significant drops, suggesting the start of the predicted 10% market correction.

10:02

🤝 Inviting Community Insight and Collaboration

The speaker concludes by reiterating their belief in the importance of sharing knowledge and opinions within a community of investors. They emphasize that investing is a team sport and encourage others to contribute their insights and experiences. The speaker provides information on how to join their community and offers a discount for their trading views chart, which they believe is essential for investors. They sign off as a retired financial adviser looking to help others make better investment decisions through shared knowledge.

Keywords

💡QQQs

QQQs refers to the Invesco QQQ Trust, which is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the NASDAQ-100 Index, representing the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ stock market. In the context of the video, the speaker predicts a significant drop in the value of QQQs, suggesting a broader market downturn.

💡Dal

Dal, short for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA or 'Dow'), is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 30 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the oldest and most well-known indices in the world. The speaker mentions Dal in relation to the expected market correction, suggesting that it will also experience a decline similar to the QQQs.

💡S&P

The S&P, or Standard & Poor's 500 Index, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the 500 largest U.S. publicly traded companies. It is a widely followed index that serves as a benchmark for the overall U.S. stock market. In the video, the speaker includes the S&P in the discussion of an anticipated market downturn.

💡Market Correction

A market correction in financial terms refers to a decline of at least 10% from the most recent peak in the market. It is a natural part of market cycles and is seen as a healthy adjustment to previous gains. In the video, the speaker is predicting a market correction, specifically a 10% drop in the QQQs, Dal, and S&P.

💡Funnel Chart

A funnel chart is a type of graphical representation used in technical analysis to visualize the narrowing or widening of price movements in financial markets. In the context of the video, the speaker uses a funnel chart to illustrate the narrowing price action that typically precedes a market correction.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and language translation. In the video, AI is mentioned as a driving force behind the strong market, suggesting that advancements and investments in this field are contributing to market growth.

💡Machine Learning

Machine learning is a subset of artificial intelligence that focuses on the development of algorithms and models that allow computers to learn from and make predictions or decisions based on data. It is a key technology that is shaping the future and is mentioned in the video as a factor contributing to the strength of the market.

💡Candlesticks

Candlesticks are a form of financial chart used to represent price movements of a security over time. Each 'candlestick' typically shows the open, high, low, and close prices for a specific period. In the video, the speaker uses candlestick charts to analyze and predict stock market trends, particularly the trend of higher highs and lows before a market correction.

💡Trend Lines

Trend lines in technical analysis are straight lines drawn on a price chart to determine the direction of the market or a security's price movement. They help identify support and resistance levels and can signal potential trend changes. The speaker in the video uses trend lines to predict a potential market downturn based on historical patterns.

💡Belly Button

In the video, the phrase 'having a belly button' is used metaphorically to suggest that everyone has the right to have an opinion. It is a playful way to emphasize that all individuals, regardless of their background or expertise, are entitled to their personal views and can participate in discussions about the market.

💡Stock Talk

Stock talk refers to discussions or conversations about the stock market, including analysis, predictions, and sharing of investment strategies. In the video, the speaker mentions 'stock talk' as the context in which they developed their opinion and shared their analysis with others.

💡Investing

Investing involves allocating resources, usually money, with the expectation of generating an income or profit over time. In the context of the video, investing is the central activity around which the discussion revolves, with the speaker providing insights and predictions to help viewers make better investment decisions.

Highlights

The QQQs are predicted to go down by about 10% between now and May 20th.

This prediction also applies to the DAX and the S&P.

The speaker emphasizes that everyone has the right to an opinion, a belief instilled from a young age.

The discussion is based on a stock talk from the previous day, where a funnel chart was presented by a swing trading expert.

The funnel chart shows that the market historically drops a percentage of its rise when it falls below the lower line of the funnel.

The speaker plans to share their opinion on why they believe there will be a 10% drop and how long it might take.

The speaker references a previous run-up in QQQs from March 2020, which led to a significant drop after 96 weeks.

The speaker uses a trading views chart to illustrate their points and offers a discount for access to such charting tools.

Stocks on an upward trend typically have higher highs and higher lows, but a funnel forms when they're about to correct.

The speaker provides historical data to support their prediction, including a 38% drop over 38 weeks in a previous market cycle.

The speaker notes a recent break in the trend line tracking the higher lows over the preceding 12 weeks, suggesting the start of a potential downturn.

The speaker expects a 10% drop over the next 10 weeks based on their calculations and historical patterns.

The speaker invites others to share their opinions in the comments, recognizing that the market doesn't just go straight up but corrects as well.

Prominent stocks like Adobe, Palantir, Apple, and others have already experienced significant drops, which may signal the start of the predicted 10% drop.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of learning from the past and contributing to a collective knowledge base for better investment decisions.

The speaker invites listeners to join their 'tribe' for shared knowledge and insights, offering a discount for the Platinum level of their service.

The speaker concludes by encouraging participation in their community for a team sport approach to investing.

Transcripts

that's right between today and may the

20th uh the qqqs are going to go down

some 10% I suspect that'll also happen

to the Dal in the S&P but because I have

a belly button I am have the right to

have an opinion this is something I was

taught at a very young age anybody who

has a belly button has the right to have

an opinion and that's all this is this

is not Financial advice this is my

opinion and what I'm going to do is

share with you how I came to that

opinion it all evolved from our stock

talk yesterday that is Friday when some

someone said well what what is the

prediction or what is the outlook for

the market in the future and Mark our

our swing trading expert showed us a

funnel that uh shows that as as the

funnel Narrows and then it drops below

the lower line it historically drops uh

a percentage of what it has rised I'll

show you that on on my computer because

I believe that we have run up and I can

go back to uh 2022 and I can show you

where it's happened again and through

some extrapolation I've come up with the

10% drop because I believe we still have

a strong Market that is being driven by

artificial intelligence and machine

learning of the future but we are going

to have a correction and I want to show

you why I believe it is uh going to be

10%

and I can tell you how long it's going

to take in order for it to hit that 10%

and then you because you have a belly

button you can go into the comments and

give me your opinion of my opinion I'll

take you right now to the

[Music]

computer best of us investors presents

Carrie

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GM okay this is my trading views chart U

if you want access to this kind of

charting which I think is a must for any

investor there's a discount to it in the

description that you can find what I've

done is I've taken something that we

talked about uh just yesterday in our

stock talk uh about how to track stocks

and how to predict movements and you've

probably heard that stocks on an upward

Trend will have higher highs and higher

lows that is to say these candlesticks

will have higher highs and they move up

up and then and they'll have higher lows

which also gives you a trend but they

move within a um a trend there's a

upward Trend both on the higher high and

the higher low but as they get to the

point where they're going to turn and

correct they they a funnel occurs and

the lower the higher lows get closer to

the higher highs and as you can see

starting back here in um March of 2020

we had a uh 96 we runup in the qqqs

which amounted to a 245 per run up over

96 weeks and then uh the candlesticks

dropped below the higher low trend line

and dropped and it it it dropped for 36

weeks or 38 weeks and oddly enough it

dropped

38% okay so it came down and then when

it hit its its low which was right there

it then reversed and started more higher

highs and higher lows and then created

another um funnel which lasted for 43

weeks and it went up

145% now as I said this drop was 38%

over 38 weeks and oddly enough then

proportionately you can do the

mathematics this dropped 12% over 12

weeks this is weird but this is what it

shows 38% drop over a 38 we period 245

per rise over a 96 week 145 over a 45

week this

proportion holds true okay so now we

entered the period uh starting in um

roughly August of 2023 where it came

down

12% right for over 12 weeks and then

turned and went up uh

120% in 20 weeks and I don't know that

it would this is an indication but yes

just this last week it broke that line

tracking the higher lows of the

preceding 12 weeks now it may bounce

right back up but if I'm right and in

fact this is a start down it's going to

it's going to drop 10% based on our

calculations here over the next 10 weeks

okay so that brings us to about May the

20th so that's my logic and and again

this is my opinion which is granted to

me by God by virtue of me having a belly

button you can have a similar or a

conflicting opinion and I invite you to

share it with me because what what this

whole game is all about is figuring out

from past history what is likely to

happen we know from past history the

market doesn't just go straight up it

goes up and then it corrects the key is

to figure out when it's going to correct

and this may or may not be accurate but

based on going back to 2020 and I could

go back further and we could see this

same thing every everybody knows higher

highs and higher lows until it turns and

you have lower highs and lower lows

until it turns again and I think there

is a turn where it dropped below the uh

higher lows and there it happened again

just this last week this is a weekly

chart let's put it on a

daily and see what it looks

like okay there you have it there is the

line now we're looking at a daily chart

and you can see that we can probably

tighten this up a bit and bring that

down and we can probably tighten this up

a

bit and we can see we just had a

Candlestick closed below the lower lows

now what's critical is what happens this

week if it drops

again we're probably going to have my

10% drop or maybe more but I think the

natural trend is that the market is

going to continue to go up but this will

present a buying opportunity we can look

at some some very prominent stocks and

we can see that this may have already

started uh Adobe dropped 14% this last

week um Palante tier is down 15% from

its H High Apple is down uh 15% from its

high whereas Amazon is only down 3% asml

is down 11 Google is down nine um uh

Intel is down 16 meta is down nine micro

U Nvidia is down eight smci is down nine

and yet then Tesla from its high is down

40 snowflake is down 34 and um Apollo

Alon networks is down 24 so this is what

is these are those are all in the qqq's

and you can see this may be the start of

our 10% drop there it is there is where

I think it I need to move that over to

there and that's about where it's going

to happen somewhere in the let's see I

said it's going to be about

May um May right in

there that's when this should probably

Trail down to here and we'll have a 10%

correction that's my opinion that's all

it is but it's my right my god-given

right and I want to share that with you

this is what we talk about in our stock

talk these are the kind of learnings

that we share and again it's it it's I I

think that it's like I said in in the

the stock talk this is a team sport it's

not just me trying to to to uh beat the

market it's me Gathering Knowledge from

other people who bring their learnings

and their life experiences and their

knowledge and say hey that Candlestick

may just have signaled us the turn that

we're all expecting in this market and

maybe these numbers have given us an

idea of what that might amount to so I

hope this helps you I hope this is

something you want to be a part of and

you come join our team because not only

do I want you to learn from our tribe

that's what we call it uh um and get on

the bus but I want you to contribute I

want you to say hey this is what I know

I got an email just the other day from a

guy I I'm very high on semiconductors

and data centers got to from from one of

my tribe members hey I work in a Data

Center and this is what we're seeing and

this is what we're doing

and and this is the kind of equipment

we're buying and this is the troubles

that we're dealing with and that's

valuable knowledge that you and I won't

we won't see it in the newspaper we

won't see it on CNBC but if we get a

large enough group of people who have a

common interest and want to have a good

time making money well then it's a team

sport and it's a good sport so what you

need to do if you want to be a part of

this is get on the bus you go to my

website best of us investors you sign up

for the the Platinum level you'll find a

coupon in the description that will give

you a 50% discount for the next 90 days

because I want you to learn just like I

learned at our stock talk how to create

this chart which gives me an insight as

to what might happen in the future is it

right is it wrong I don't know but I

will know in 10 weeks okay I'm Carrie

grink I'm a retired financial adviser I

just want to help you and me make better

investment Decisions by sharing our

knowledge talk to you again probably

[Music]

tomorrow

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