Feeding Nine Billion Video 1: Introducing Solutions to the Global Food Crisis by Dr. Evan Fraser

Summary

Dr. Evan Fraser discusses the urgent challenge of feeding 9 billion people by 2050 amidst rising populations and climate change. He outlines a four-part strategy involving technology, food distribution, local farming, and strong regulation. Fraser highlights the importance of adapting to local conditions, reducing food waste, and preparing for food crises. He calls for action, urging viewers to engage with the issue and support sustainable solutions on www.feeding9billion.com.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The world faces a significant challenge to feed 9 billion people by 2050 due to rising populations and richer diets.
• 📈 In recent years, we have often produced just enough food to meet demand, with some years showing a deficit.
• 💹 The food crisis of 2008 in Zambia led to skyrocketing prices, poverty, and social unrest, including riots and government overthrows.
• 🌾 Science and technology, particularly in agriculture, are crucial for increasing food production, especially in regions like sub-Saharan Africa.
• 🌱 Locally appropriate agricultural solutions are necessary, as a one-size-fits-all approach does not work across different regions.
• 📊 Food distribution must be improved, as there is enough food globally, but it is often wasted or not accessible to those who need it.
• 🏡 Supporting local food systems is vital as they act as a buffer against global market fluctuations and food shortages.
• 🏛️ Stronger regulation and government policy are needed to promote sustainable farming practices and manage food resources effectively.
• 🌎 The 1992 southern African drought was mitigated by adopting a combination of the four strategies mentioned: technology, distribution, local systems, and regulation.
• 🔄 A balanced approach, considering all four strategies as part of an investment portfolio, is necessary to ensure food security and avoid future crises.

Q & A

What is the main issue Evan Fraser discusses in the script?

Evan Fraser discusses the challenge of feeding 9 billion people by the next 50 years, highlighting the potential for food scarcity, poverty, and social unrest due to rising global food demand and the effects of climate change.

What happened between 2008 and 2009 in Zambia that affected food prices?

Between 2008 and 2009, Zambia experienced skyrocketing food prices, which led to a crisis that threw tens or even hundreds of millions of people into poverty and resulted in riots, market destruction, and political upheaval.

What is the connection between food prices and the revolutions in the Middle East in 2011?

The revolutions in the Middle East in 2011 were triggered by people in the streets being upset over the high prices of food, which led to widespread unrest and the toppling of governments.

Why do top agricultural experts believe we are at the beginning of a dangerous phase in human history?

Top agricultural experts believe we are at the beginning of a dangerous phase because food, water, and energy shortages could lead to increased poverty, civic unrest, and international conflict if we don't develop new strategies to address global food security.

What is the current state of global food production in relation to consumption?

In most years, global food production is just enough to cover consumption. However, in six of the last 11 years, consumption slightly exceeded production, indicating a fragile system with a dwindling buffer.

What is the projected increase in food demand by 2050, and why is it challenging to meet this demand?

The projected increase in food demand by 2050 is 50 percent. Meeting this demand is challenging because it coincides with rising energy prices and climate change, which make food production more difficult and expensive.

Why is it important to develop locally appropriate agricultural solutions?

It is important to develop locally appropriate agricultural solutions because different regions have unique soils, cultures, and community structures, and a one-size-fits-all approach to agricultural technology does not work across different regions.

What is the role of food distribution in addressing global food security?

Food distribution plays a crucial role in global food security by ensuring that less food is wasted and that the available food is more equitably distributed, especially to those who are most in need.

Why is it essential to maintain a healthy population of farms and farmers around cities?

Maintaining a healthy population of farms and farmers around cities is essential because local food systems act as a buffer against problems in global markets and provide a defense against hunger.

What is the significance of stronger regulation and proactive government policy in the context of global food security?

Stronger regulation and proactive government policy are significant for promoting sustainable farming practices, preventing environmental degradation, and ensuring the long-term stability and security of the global food system.

How did southern Africa overcome the 1992 drought without a major crisis?

Southern Africa overcame the 1992 drought by implementing the four strategies discussed: local plant breeding programs for drought-resistant crops, famine early warning systems, proactive international aid policies, and support for local production systems.

What is the analogy used in the script to illustrate the importance of preparing for food scarcity?

The script uses the story of Joseph and the Pharaoh's dream from the Old Testament as an analogy to illustrate the importance of preparing for food scarcity by storing food during times of plenty to prevent famine during times of scarcity.

Outlines

00:00

🌏 Global Food Security Crisis

Evan Fraser from the University of Guelph discusses the impending challenge of feeding 9 billion people by 2050. He juxtaposes images of food purchasable for a dollar in Zambia in 2008 and 2009 to illustrate the impact of food price inflation. The script highlights how food price crises have led to riots, market destruction, and political upheaval, including the revolutions in the Middle East in 2011. Fraser emphasizes the fragility of our food production system, which has barely met consumption demands in recent years, and the increased difficulty of food production due to rising energy prices and climate change. He outlines a four-part strategy involving science and technology, better food distribution, supporting local food systems, and stronger government regulation to address these challenges.

05:01

🌱 Strategies for a Sustainable Food Future

The paragraph delves into the four-part blueprint for global food security. The first strategy focuses on utilizing science and technology to increase agricultural output, especially in regions like sub-Saharan Africa where potential is underutilized due to lack of resources. The second strategy addresses the need for improved food distribution, highlighting the paradox of hunger amidst food surplus and suggesting ways to reduce waste and improve access. The third strategy underscores the importance of maintaining local food systems as a buffer against global market fluctuations. The fourth strategy calls for robust government policies to promote sustainable farming practices. The paragraph concludes with a real-world example from southern Africa in 1992, where the adoption of these strategies averted a crisis despite a severe drought.

10:01

📈 Preparing for the Future of Food

The final paragraph draws a parallel between the ancient story of Joseph and the Pharaoh and the modern challenge of global food security. It emphasizes the importance of proactive planning and the use of modern tools like climate and demographic modeling to predict and prepare for future food production challenges. The speaker calls for collective action, urging viewers to engage with the website www.feeding9billion.com to vote on and share the four strategies discussed. The goal is to mobilize interest and funding to create further in-depth content and campaigns that can contribute to solving the global food crisis.

Keywords

💡Global Food Security

Global food security refers to the availability of sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for all people at all times. In the video, this concept is central as it discusses the challenges of feeding a growing global population, especially in the face of rising food prices and potential future shortages. The example of Zambia's market in 2008 and 2009 illustrates the volatility in food availability and its impact on people's lives.

💡Food Prices

Food prices are a critical factor in global food security. The video highlights how skyrocketing food prices in Zambia between 2008 and 2009 led to increased poverty and social unrest. This underscores the vulnerability of food systems to price fluctuations and the need for strategies to stabilize food prices to prevent such crises.

💡Agricultural Experts

Agricultural experts play a pivotal role in shaping food policies and technologies. The video mentions that many top agricultural experts believe we are at a tipping point regarding global food security, emphasizing the urgency for new strategies to address the challenges of feeding a growing population.

💡Resource Intensity

Resource intensity refers to the amount of resources required to produce food, which has increased due to richer diets and growing populations. The video points out that our current food systems are already strained, and the demand for food is set to rise further, making it harder and more expensive to produce, thus necessitating more efficient and sustainable agricultural practices.

💡Climate Change

Climate change is identified in the video as a significant factor affecting food production. It is linked to the increasing difficulty and cost of producing food, as it can lead to unpredictable weather patterns, droughts, and other environmental challenges that directly impact agricultural yields.

💡Science and Technology

Science and technology are presented as key tools for increasing agricultural productivity. The video suggests that by deploying currently available technologies, we could significantly boost food production, especially in regions like sub-Saharan Africa where farmers are underperforming due to lack of access to quality seeds, fertilizers, and equipment.

💡Locally Appropriate Solutions

Locally appropriate solutions are context-specific strategies that address the unique challenges faced by different regions. The video stresses the importance of partnering with farmers to develop solutions tailored to local soils, cultures, and communities, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.

💡Food Distribution

Efficient food distribution is essential to ensure that food reaches those who need it most. The video discusses the paradox of having enough food globally but still experiencing hunger due to poor distribution and waste. It calls for strategies to reduce waste and improve the equitable distribution of food.

💡Local Food Systems

Local food systems are highlighted as a buffer against global market fluctuations and a means to support smaller-scale farmers. The video argues for the importance of supporting these systems to maintain a healthy population of farms and farmers, which can provide a more resilient and responsive food supply.

💡Regulation and Government Policy

Strong regulation and proactive government policy are seen as necessary to promote sustainable farming practices and prevent environmental degradation. The video uses the example of a feedlot with a massive manure pile to illustrate the need for regulations that encourage responsible agricultural practices.

💡Sustainable Farming

Sustainable farming is the practice of farming in a way that maintains the health of the ecosystem, is economically viable, and is socially acceptable. The video connects the need for sustainable farming to the broader goal of global food security, emphasizing that current practices must change to prevent environmental damage and ensure long-term food production.

Highlights

The challenge of feeding 9 billion people by 2050 due to rising populations and rich diets.

The food price crisis in Zambia between 2008 and 2009 led to increased poverty and social unrest.

The potential for food, water, and energy shortages to cause international conflict.

Global food production is barely keeping up with consumption, with a shrinking buffer.

The need for a 50% increase in food production by 2050 to meet demand.

The difficulty of increasing food production due to high energy prices and climate change.

The potential to boost food production by 50% using currently available technologies.

The importance of locally appropriate solutions for African agriculture.

The need for better food distribution and reducing food waste to address hunger.

The role of international aid in improving access to food stores for short-term aid.

The importance of supporting local food systems as a buffer against global market problems.

The necessity of stronger regulation and government policy for sustainable farming practices.

The argument that local small farms may not be sufficient to feed growing urban populations.

The success story of Southern Africa overcoming the 1992 drought through strategic planning.

The adoption of drought-resistant crop varieties and famine early warning systems in Africa.

The role of proactive international policies and food storage centers in stabilizing food prices.

The analogy of a balanced investment portfolio for a resilient food system.

The potential of new agricultural technologies compared to high-octane IT stocks in an investment strategy.

The importance of a robust legal framework to prevent agriculture from environmental destruction.

The call to action for individuals to engage with the website and vote on strategies to combat the global food crisis.

Transcripts

hello my name is

Evan Fraser and I work

at the University of Guelph

in Ontario Canada

mostly what I do

is to try and understand

one of the biggest

issues facing our world

over the next 50 years

how can we feed

9 billion people

to start let's consider

two images

the first shows us

how much food

you could buy

for one dollar

on a market in the

African nation

of Zambia in 2008

the second shows us

how much you could buy

on the same

market for one

dollar in 2009

what happened in between

was skyrocketing food prices

a crisis that has thrown

tens maybe even hundreds

of millions into poverty

what's more the

victims haven't suffered

quietly they've rioted

smashed markets and toppled

governments

remember the revolutions

that swept the Middle East

in 2011

they all began

with people in the street

upset over the price

of food

what's more

many of the world's

top agricultural experts

believe that this is

just the tip of the iceberg

unless we figure out

new strategies to deal

with global food

security we may be

entering a new

and dangerous phase

of human history

where food water

and energy shortages

threaten not only

worse poverty

but also civic unrest

and international conflict

there are a number

of reasons for this alarm

the first reason

is that in most years

we produce only

just enough food to

cover our uses

in fact in six of the

last 11 years

we actually consumed

slightly more food

than we produced and

the buffer we take

from one year

to the next

has been steadily falling

so our system already

seems pretty fragile

but it's when we look

into the future

that things grow

very dire indeed

rising populations and

our rich diets

that take a lot more

resources to produce

than they used to

are driving our demand

for food up

and scientists figure

we'll need

50 percent

more food

by 2050

but producing this food

is going to be hard

this is because

the rising demand

is coming precisely

at the same time

as high energy prices

and climate change

are making food harder

and more expensive

to produce

but hidden in these grim

statistics is a

four-part blueprint

we need to follow

but since each of these

strategies is extremely

controversial

each requires careful

analysis

the first strategy includes

science and technology

today a major

scientific hurdle

is to develop technologies

that will help farmers

reach their potential

in terms of the

amount of food

they produce

some scientists figure

we could easily boost

production by 50%

just by deploying

currently available technologies

this is especially

important in regions like

sub-saharan Africa

where many farmers

only produce about 20%

of what they could do

to a lack of good quality

seeds fertilizer

and better equipment

but it's not as if

we can take the seeds

and equipment that

seemed to work

on North American farms

and simply give them

away to African farmers

this doesn't work

because African soils

cultures and communities

are totally different

than in north

america or europe

so scientists must

partner with farmers

to develop locally

appropriate solutions

to local challenges

just using science

and technology

won't be enough however

and this is where

the second strategy

comes in

we must do a better job

at distributing the food

we've got

to develop this strategy

we need to consider

an uncomfortable truth about

today's food system

if you take all the

food on the planet and

divide it equally

by all the people

on the planet

there is plenty

about 2700 calories

per person per day

and 75 grams of protein

per person per day

that's more than enough

but because we feed

a lot of our

food to animals or

turn corn into ethanol

or simply waste

vast amounts

maybe 20 to 50 percent

of the world's food

is wasted

or because the people

who need the food are

poor to afford it

hunger abounds

so we need to establish

ways of making sure

that less food

is wasted and the food

we do have is better

distributed

one way of

doing this is through

ensuring that

international aid organizations

have better access

to food stores

that can be used

as short-term food aid

in times of crisis

third if we want

to avoid a hungry future

we need to make sure we

keep a healthy population

of farms and farmers

around our cities

this means we

need to support local

food systems which

are important because

they stand as a

buffer between individual

consumers and problems

that might occur in global

markets

even if local food systems

do not feed all of us

all the time they are

a critical line of

defence against hunger

fourth none of this will be

possible without stronger

regulation and proactive

government policy

I was confronted with

the need for better

regulation while on a

recent tour of a

feedlot that was licensed

to hold a hundred thousand cows

there I saw a four

hundred and ten thousand

ton pile of manure

that's the weight of

about 35,000 elephants

it was a sad reminder

of the need for

governments to get

serious about promoting

more sustainable farming

of course each of these

four strategies

has its drawbacks

critics of technology

and markets argue

that new technologies

inevitably seem to

enrich corporations

more than help in

humanity or the environment

anti-regulation voices

argue that all

governments ever do

is tie farmers in

red tape and stifle

innovation arguments

for more equitable

food redistribution

causes some to mutter

about the effects

of Big Brother

forcing us all to eat a

uniform diet

but most daunting perhaps

is the argument that

with a world population

poised to reach 9 billion

by mid-century

there will never be

a way for modern communities

to feed themselves

by means of local small farms

our cities are simply

too big

our demands too great

to be able to feed

ourselves without relying

on extremely

intensive farms

but luckily

this isn't a lost cause

take southern Africa in 1992

that year it suffered

the worst drought in a

hundred years

harvest ranked by 1/2

food stockpiles disappeared

and 17 to 20 million people

almost starved

yet apart from in

war-torn Mozambique

there was no real crisis

and the story of how

southern Africa overcame

the drought is a modern

parable for how to feed

nine billion humans

it was the famine

that wasn't and the

reasons for this

are that Africans

adopted the four strategies

proposed here

first before the emergency

local plant breeding

programs introduced

drought resistant varieties

of the crops

that small-scale farmers

traditionally cultivate

this meant that people

had some food

to fall back on when their

main crops failed

also famine early

warning systems

used up-to-date data

and weather forecasts

to alert officials

to the problems months

in advance

meanwhile international donors

adopted proactive

policies like forgiving loans

they also contributed

to food storage centers

close to vulnerable communities

and so food prices

stayed level

as such

local production systems

on which poorer

communities depend bounced

back quickly

the key lesson from

southern Africa in

1992 is that while

all these criticisms

have their points

they aren't universally

applicable and not across

the entire complex landscape

of the 21st century

food system to effectively

tackle the challenges of

feeding the future

the most sensible approach

is to imagine these

four types of solutions as

components of

a well balanced investment

portfolio

one that's resilient

enough to

weather economic storms

is still able to

provide strong

year-over-year returns

and is secure against fraud

and theft

think of new agricultural

technologies

as similar to high-octane

IT stocks

they're an important

part of a

profitable investment strategy

but an over reliance

on them could cost you

your shirt if the market

turns against you

likewise local

food systems are similar

to more modest

rainy-day investments

they can't be

relied upon to feed

everyone all the time

but they're a vital buffer

between consumers

and the dangerous swings

of the international market

and of course every

sound portfolio

includes a cash reserve

in case of emergencies

hence the need

for more mechanisms

to store and distribute food

in times of crisis

lastly one of the lessons

of the present

economic crisis

is that left unregulated

financial institutions

behave badly

in the same way we

need a robust

legal framework

to restrain agriculture

from destroying the environment

the 1992 southern african

drought passed without

excessive hardship

and the agricultural

cycle trundled onwards

historically it

always has one of the

few Old Testament stories

to have a happy ending

was the tale of Joseph

and the Pharaoh's dream

the story recounts

how the Pharaoh

dreamt that seven fat cows

emerged from the Nile

followed by seven thin cows

who followed them

and gobbled the

fat ones up

the pharaoh ended up

listening to joseph

a prisoner in his dungeons

for the correct interpretation

joseph told him

that the seven fat cows

were a good weather report

signifying seven rich years

they would be followed by seven

dry years of no rainfall

whatsoever

to save egypt

from the famine

joseph advised

the pharaoh to tax his farms

store the grain in silos

and prepare for

the rough times ahead

pharaoh took this

advice to heart

and egypt was saved

today stopping the global

food crisis

may seem like

an impossible task

the stakes could not be higher

if we don't change

how the world produces

and distributes its food

then the suffering

and violence of the

past few years will

be repeated but

a thousand times worse

but luckily today

we have climate and

demographic modeling

software that are

far more reliable than

waiting for god

to send a dream

to a monarch

these models are quite

clear the years 2050

eighty are probably

not going to be as

productive as the ones

between 1950 and 1980

but this doesn't

necessarily mean disaster

we can avoid this nightmare

and replace it with

a vision of a world

where no one needs

to starve

we have the solutions

all we need now

is the will to

act on them

what can you do to help

first go to our website

there's more information

about each of the four

strategies and things

you can do to make

a difference locally

and internationally

we'll release an in-depth

video and associated

campaign for each

of the four strategies

over the next year

but we need to know

which you're most interested in

so go to www.feeding9billion.com

and vote on your

favorite topic

then share this

on Twitter and Facebook

send it to your friends

your colleagues

your neighbors your families

and get them to do

the same

our funding will flow

if we have enough demand

and votes to make

the next video

until then thanks

for watching and

good luck