Steve Kornacki: 2024 polls show a 'significant' gender gap

Summary

The script discusses the gender gap in the presidential race, highlighting that in 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in pre-debate polls. Biden, however, won women by 13%. The current gender gap stands at 18 points nationally, with Trump leading men by 7% and trailing women by 9%. The script questions whether state-specific events or issues like abortion politics in battleground states might be influencing these gaps, suggesting that further observation is needed to understand if these state-specific gender gaps will persist or grow.

Takeaways

• 📊 In 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in the months before the election, which has since decreased to 7%.
• 🔍 Men tend to lean more Republican, whereas Biden won women by 13% in the month before the debate, with that lead decreasing to 5%.
• 🌟 Harris has seen an increase in support among women, leading by 9 points in the months since the debate.
• 🚹 Trump currently leads men by an average of 7 points, and women by 9 points, creating an 18-point gender gap nationally in 2020.
• ❓ The script raises a question mark over the gender gap in battleground states, suggesting that what is happening nationally may not be reflected there.
• 📈 In Michigan, Trump leads men by 20 points, with a 30-point gender gap, indicating significant differences in political preferences by gender.
• ⚠️ The script cautions that there could be statistical noise in the data, as seen in Pennsylvania where the gender gap is barely noticeable.
• 📉 The numbers can fluctuate, and the script suggests looking for state-specific events or issues that might be influencing the gender gap.
• 🤔 The discussion ponders whether abortion politics in certain states might be affecting the gender gap in voter preferences.
• 🔎 The script concludes by questioning whether we need to see more data to determine if state-specific gender gaps are significant or approaching the scale of the national gap.

Q & A

What was the gender gap in the 2020 presidential race according to the script?

In the 2020 presidential race, the gender gap was 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Biden leading women by 13 points.

How did the gender gap change in the months leading up to the debate in 2020?

In the months before the debate, Biden's lead with women decreased from 13 points to 5 points, while Trump's lead with men decreased from 12 points to 7 points.

What is the current average gender gap in the polls as mentioned in the script?

The current average gender gap in the polls is 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Harris leading women by 9 points.

What is the significance of the gender gap in Michigan as per the script?

In Michigan, Trump had a 20-point lead among men, which is a significant gender gap of 30 points when compared to Harris's 24 points among women.

Why might there be a cautionary note about the gender gap numbers in the script?

There could be statistical noise in the gender gap numbers, as indicated by the script, which suggests that the numbers can fluctuate and may not be entirely reliable.

What is the situation regarding the gender gap in Pennsylvania according to the script?

In Pennsylvania, the script mentions that there is barely a gender gap at all, indicating a more balanced distribution of support between men and women.

What factors might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states as discussed in the script?

The script suggests that state-specific events, abortion politics, and other local issues might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states.

What is the question raised by the variations in the gender gap across different states?

The script raises the question of whether there are state-specific factors causing variations in the gender gap, and whether these factors are significant enough to warrant further investigation.

Why is it important to monitor the gender gap in state-specific polls according to the script?

Monitoring the gender gap in state-specific polls is important because it can reveal trends and potential shifts in voter preferences that might not be visible at the national level.

What does the script suggest about the necessity of seeing more data on the gender gap?

The script suggests that more data is needed to determine if the observed state-specific gender gaps are consistent and significant, and to understand their implications for the election.