Metodo per GUADAGNARE IN BORSA al 99,99%

Summary

The video script discusses the concept of investing in the stock market with a high level of confidence in earning returns. It emphasizes that while there is no 100% certainty due to the unpredictable nature of markets, a diversified global stock portfolio held over the long term can yield significant returns. The speaker refutes the idea of a guaranteed method for stock market success, citing the importance of understanding economic and financial systems, as well as the role of inflation and the risk-reward balance in investment strategies. The video aims to debunk the 'scam' label often associated with such investment claims, offering a nuanced view based on statistical significance and historical data.

Takeaways

• 🎯 The title of the video, although seemingly 'scam', is actually less misleading than it appears, as it discusses the possibility of earning in the stock market with a high level of confidence, but not 100% certainty.
• 📈 The video emphasizes that while we cannot predict the future with absolute certainty, we can have a high level of confidence in certain aspects of investing based on statistical significance and research.
• 💡 The speaker discusses the importance of understanding the economic and financial system, particularly the monetary system, and how it affects wealth perception and investment decisions.
• 🔄 The concept of inflation is highlighted as a constant in the modern economic system, which should be considered when making investment decisions to protect and grow wealth over time.
• 💰 The idea of saving and investing is presented as a way to potentially consume more in the future than what is available today, by accepting a certain level of market risk.
• 📊 The video references research from Capital and Dimensional Fund, which supports the idea that certain investment parameters can provide a high level of confidence in earning in the stock market.
• 🌐 Diversification is recommended as the key to earning in the stock market with a high level of confidence, suggesting a globally diversified equity portfolio as the best approach.
• 🚫 The speaker advises against active management and geographic investment focus, instead advocating for a long-term, diversified, and passive investment strategy.
• 🔢 The video mentions that the expected return on equity investments, when considering the market risk premium and the risk-free rate, is historically between 5% and 6% on average.
• ⏳ The importance of having a long-term investment horizon is stressed, as market cycles and the premium for risk will fluctuate, but over the long term, the reward for taking risk cannot be negative.
• 🎲 The video concludes that while there are no guarantees in investing, understanding the economic and financial system and adopting a diversified, long-term investment strategy can lead to high confidence in earning returns.

Q & A

What is the main claim of the video regarding investing in the stock market?

The main claim is that one can achieve a high level of confidence in earning profits from the stock market, although not with 100% certainty. The speaker suggests that by understanding the economic and financial system, one can invest with a confidence level between 95% and 99.9%.

Why does the speaker say the title of the video is 'scam' at first glance?

The speaker initially calls the title 'scam' because it might lead the audience to believe that there is a guaranteed method to make money in the stock market, which is not true. The speaker aims to clarify that while there is a high level of confidence in earning from investments, there is no absolute certainty.

What does the speaker mean by 'Market Beta'?

Market Beta refers to the premium for risk in the stock market. It is a measure of the systemic risk of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. The speaker mentions that Market Beta is statistically significant and supports the idea that in the long term, one can expect to earn a premium for taking on risk in the stock market.

How does the speaker address the concept of 'risk-free' returns in the context of investing?

The speaker discusses 'risk-free' returns in relation to the concept of the equity risk premium. He suggests that while there is a certain level of risk involved in investing, the long-term rewards are expected to be higher than those of risk-free investments, such as government bonds.

What is the significance of the economic and financial system's structure in the speaker's investment strategy?

The speaker emphasizes that understanding the structure of the modern economic and financial system is crucial for successful investing. He argues that because the system is designed in a certain way, with inflation being a constant, it creates a predictable environment where one can protect their purchasing power and potentially earn a premium by investing.

Why does the speaker mention Dubai in the context of certainty in life?

The speaker uses Dubai as an example to illustrate that even things we consider certain, like taxes, can vary based on circumstances. He points out that while he pays taxes in Italy, someone could avoid them by moving to Dubai, showing that the only true certainty in life is death, not taxes or any other aspect of life.

What does the speaker suggest about the long-term trend of inflation?

The speaker suggests that in the long term, inflation will always be increasing. This is based on the modern economic monetary system and historical data. He uses this as a basis for why one should invest – to protect their purchasing power against the effects of inflation.

How does the speaker view the role of market efficiency in investment decisions?

The speaker acknowledges that while markets are generally efficient, they are not fully so. He refers to the Grossman-Stiglitz paradox, which suggests that if markets were fully efficient, there would be no rewards for investors since everyone would know the true value of assets. However, because markets are not fully efficient, there are opportunities for investors to earn returns.

What is the speaker's recommendation for investors with a long-term horizon?

The speaker recommends that investors with a long-term horizon should invest in a diversified global stock portfolio. He suggests that by doing so and maintaining patience, investors can achieve a high level of confidence in earning returns, as the stock market's premium for risk cannot be negative in the long term.

How does the speaker address the concept of market timing?

The speaker argues that market timing does not matter in the long term. While acknowledging that timing can affect short-term returns, he emphasizes that over a long investment horizon, the market's cyclical nature will average out, and the premium for risk will tend to be positive.

What is the speaker's stance on active management of investments?

The speaker does not explicitly mention active management in the script provided. However, his emphasis on the efficiency of markets and the importance of a long-term, diversified investment strategy suggests that he may favor passive investment approaches over active ones.