He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion

Summary

In this engaging video, 77-year-old historian and Senior Olympics qualifier Allan Lichtman shares his unique method for predicting U.S. presidential election outcomes. Lichtman's model, developed with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, relies on 13 keys based on 120 years of election data, rather than polls or pundits. Having accurately forecasted nearly every election since 1984, Lichtman applies his model to the 2024 race, concluding that Kamala Harris is poised to become the next president, based on the current state of his keys.

Takeaways

• 🏃‍♂️ Allan Lichtman, aged 77, is an accomplished steeplechase champion and a history professor.
• 🔮 Lichtman is renowned for his presidential election predictions, having correctly forecasted almost every election since 1984.
• 📊 His predictive model is based on 13 keys developed with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, focusing on the White House party's performance rather than polls or pundits.
• 🤔 Lichtman's model was among the few that accurately predicted Trump's victory in 2016 and Biden's in 2020.
• 🚫 The first key for 2024 is false as the Democrats lost House seats in the 2022 midterms.
• 🙅‍♂️ The second key is also false because President Biden withdrew from re-election, which would have made it true.
• 🤝 The third key is true as the Democrats united behind Vice President Harris without a primary contest.
• 🏛️ Key number four is true with no significant third-party challenger emerging.
• 💹 Keys five and six are true, indicating a strong short-term economy and better long-term growth under Biden than the previous two terms.
• 🛠️ Key seven is true due to significant policy changes like rejoining the Paris Accords and passing major bills.
• 🌎 Key eight is true as there's been no sustained social unrest during Biden's term, despite sporadic protests.
• 🔍 Key nine remains true; despite controversies, no scandal has directly implicated President Biden.
• 🌟 Key ten is false as Harris is not considered a once-in-a-generational, inspirational candidate.
• 🤐 Key eleven is true, suggesting that Trump's appeal is limited to a narrow base, making him uncharismatic in this context.
• 🌐 The final two keys relate to foreign policy, which could be tricky but are currently leaning towards being true, supporting Harris's chances.

Q & A

Who is Allan Lichtman and what is he known for?

Allan Lichtman is a 77-year-old professor who has correctly predicted almost every presidential election since 1984 using a model based on 13 keys.

What is unique about Allan Lichtman's approach to predicting election outcomes?

Allan Lichtman's approach is unique because it ignores polls and pundits, instead relying on a model with 13 keys that focus on the strength and performance of the White House party.

What are the 13 keys that Allan Lichtman uses for his presidential predictions?

The 13 keys are a set of true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House party, with only two keys related to the candidates themselves.

How did Allan Lichtman's model perform in the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections?

Allan Lichtman's model accurately predicted that Donald Trump would win in 2016 and lose in 2020.

What does Allan Lichtman say about the 2024 election year being unprecedented?

Despite the 2024 election year being unprecedented, Allan Lichtman asserts that his 13 keys will work, calling them the 'constant northern star of political prediction.'

How does Allan Lichtman evaluate the first key regarding the White House party's performance in the midterm elections?

Allan Lichtman evaluates that the first key is false because the Democrats lost House seats in the 2022 midterm elections.

What is the significance of the incumbency key in Allan Lichtman's model, and how does it apply to the 2024 election?

The incumbency key is significant as it considers whether the sitting president is running for re-election. In the 2024 scenario, Biden's withdrawal from the race makes this key false.

What does Allan Lichtman consider as a 'true' key in the 2024 election scenario, and why?

Allan Lichtman considers the key regarding the White House party avoiding a primary contest as 'true' because the Democrats united behind Vice President Harris.

How does Allan Lichtman assess the economy's impact on the 2024 election using his model?

Allan Lichtman assesses that the short-term economy is strong and long-term economic growth during the presidential term is at least as good as the last two terms, making both economy-related keys true.

What is the outcome of Allan Lichtman's prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election based on his model?

Based on his model, Allan Lichtman predicts that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States in the 2024 election.

How does Allan Lichtman's personal life, such as his participation in the Senior Olympics, reflect his character?

Allan Lichtman's participation in the Senior Olympics and his achievements there, such as winning medals and qualifying for the 2025 National Senior Olympics, reflect his competitive spirit and active lifestyle despite his age.