Fundamentals Don't Matter...Why Sentiment & Positioning are Everything (Stock Market Wizard Secrets)

Summary

Jason Shapiro 在视频中讨论了市场运作和反应，特别关注了过去两周股市的表现。他指出，市场普遍看空，尤其是纳斯达克指数，但市场却出现了反弹。他强调了交易者持仓报告的重要性，认为市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要，因为市场已经对基本面做出了反应。他还提到了等待市场确认的重要性，并以天然气、金属和橙汁市场为例，展示了如何根据市场情绪和持仓位置进行交易决策。

Takeaways

• 📈 过去一周或两周的股市，尤其是纳斯达克指数，经历了显著的反弹，这与市场普遍看空的情绪相反。
• 📊 交易者报告（Commitment of Traders report）显示，纳斯达克的投机者非常看空，而商业持仓者则相对看多，这与市场最终上涨的趋势一致。
• 🤔 市场分析师Jason Shapiro认为，市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要，因为每个人都在关注基本面，所以这些信息已经被市场消化。
• 📉 尽管美联储的表态可能被解读为鸽派，但Shapiro认为，市场在美联储会议前已经非常看空，因此任何消息都可能被视为利好。
• 🔄 纳斯达克的表现与其他市场如道琼斯指数不同，后者在同期几乎没有变动，显示市场分化。
• ⛽ 能源和金属市场也出现了与普遍预期相反的走势，尤其是汽油和取暖油价格的大幅下跌，以及黄金和白银的下跌。
• 📊 在交易中，市场情绪和持仓位置是风险回报的关键因素，而不是基本面分析。
• 🚫 Shapiro强调，不要仅仅因为某个分析师或市场情绪而立即做出交易决策，而是要等待市场确认。
• 🍊 例如，尽管有关橙汁减产的消息非常看多，但交易者报告显示投机者过于看多，商业持仓者看空，因此需要市场确认才能进行交易。
• 💡 Shapiro认为，交易的关键在于找到风险回报比有利的交易机会，而不是预测市场的未来走势。
• 📚 他最后指出，尽管有些人可能因为拥有MBA或CFA学位而过分依赖基本面分析，但实际上市场心理和持仓位置才是交易中的关键因素。

Q & A

Jason Shapiro在视频中提到的市场是什么？

Jason Shapiro在视频中主要讨论了股票市场，特别是纳斯达克（NASDAQ）市场。

为什么Jason认为市场参与者普遍看空？

Jason提到，他在金融电视和新闻网络上听到的每一个分析师和评论员都表达了看空的观点，这形成了一种普遍的市场情绪。

什么是交易者承诺报告（Commitment of Traders report）？

交易者承诺报告是一种显示市场参与者持仓情况的报告，它可以帮助分析市场的多空力量对比。

Jason如何使用交易者承诺报告来支持他的市场观点？

Jason使用交易者承诺报告中的持仓数据来确认市场参与者的多空比例，这与他在电视和新闻上听到的看空情绪相一致。

为什么Jason认为情绪和持仓比基本面更重要？

Jason认为，因为每个人都在关注基本面，所以基本面已经被市场定价，而情绪和持仓则可以提供市场未被充分考虑的信息。

Jason提到的一个交易者在电视上表达了什么观点？

一个交易者在电视上表达了对市场上涨的不满，并提到人们可能过于看空，但他也强调了基本面的重要性。

为什么Jason认为美联储在最近的声明中并不是鸽派？

Jason通过分析美联储的声明和市场的反应，认为市场将美联储的声明解读为鸽派是一种误读，实际上美联储的立场是鹰派。

Jason提到了哪些市场在最近的表现？

Jason提到了纳斯达克、汽油、取暖油、金属（如黄金和白银）等市场，并讨论了它们的表现和交易者的情绪。

Jason如何解释市场确认（market confirmation）的重要性？

Jason认为，即使有了看空或看多的分析，也需要市场的实际走势来确认这一观点，这样才能确保交易的风险和回报。

Jason在视频中提到的橙汁市场的情况是什么？

Jason提到橙汁市场因为佛罗里达州的霜冻和飓风导致产量减少，但交易者承诺报告显示投机者过于看多，而商业交易者则看空。

Jason如何强调市场心理和持仓分析的重要性？

Jason通过多个市场的例子强调，市场心理和持仓分析可以帮助交易者找到有利的风险回报比，而不是仅仅依赖于基本面分析。

Outlines

00:00

📈 市场情绪与头寸分析

Jason Shapiro在拥挤的市场报告中讨论了过去两周股市，尤其是纳斯达克指数的表现。他指出，市场参与者普遍看空，这反映在金融电视和新闻网络上的评论中。他强调了头寸的重要性，特别是通过交易者承诺报告来分析纳斯达克的头寸情况，发现投机者非常看空。他提到，市场情绪和头寸是他交易哲学的核心，而基本面因素因为已经被市场充分定价，所以对他来说并不重要。纳斯达克指数最终上涨，这与市场普遍的悲观情绪相反，也证明了他的交易观点。

05:03

📉 能源与金属市场的交易机会

Jason提到了能源和金属市场，他注意到电视上的分析师普遍推荐购买石油和矿业股票，尽管他们对股市整体持悲观态度。通过商品交易者承诺报告（COT），他发现投机者在汽油和取暖油上持有极端的多头头寸，而商业持仓则相反。他利用这些信息进行了交易，等待市场确认后入场，例如黄金在出现反转信号后才进行交易。他强调了市场确认的重要性，并以橙汁市场为例，说明了即使新闻报道非常看多，也需要等待市场出现反转信号后才进行交易。

10:03

💡 交易哲学与风险回报

Jason在最后一段中重申了他的交易哲学，即市场情绪和头寸是交易中最重要的因素。他认为，尽管基本面因素被广泛讨论，但它们已经被市场定价，因此对交易决策的影响有限。他比喻说，即使有人连续几次正确预测了硬币的正反面，也不能保证下一次预测的准确性。他强调，交易的目标是找到风险回报比有利的交易机会，而不是预测市场的未来。他还提到，即使市场因为美联储的声明而波动，但这并不改变他的交易策略，即利用市场情绪和头寸来做出交易决策。

Keywords

💡市场定位

市场定位是指投资者在市场中的持仓情况，它反映了市场参与者对未来价格走势的预期和信心。在视频中，市场定位被用来说明交易者和商业参与者在纳斯达克指数上的极端空头仓位，这与市场随后的上涨趋势形成了对比。

💡情绪

情绪在交易中指的是市场参与者的集体心理状态，它可以极大地影响市场行为。视频中提到，市场情绪普遍看空，但这种普遍的悲观情绪反而增加了市场上涨的可能性，因为市场往往与大多数人的预期相反。

💡基本面

基本面是指影响资产价格的长期因素，如公司的财务状况、行业状况和宏观经济指标。视频中提到，尽管基本面很重要，但在交易中，市场情绪和定位更为关键，因为基本面信息通常已经被市场所消化。

💡美联储

美联储是美国的中央银行，其政策决定对金融市场有深远的影响。视频中提到，尽管有人认为市场上涨是因为美联储的鸽派立场，但演讲者认为市场在美联储会议前就已经表现出看空情绪，而市场的实际走势与预期相反。

💡纳斯达克

纳斯达克是一个主要的股票市场指数，代表了技术股和其他行业的表现。视频中，纳斯达克指数的上涨被用来说明市场定位和情绪如何影响价格走势，尤其是在市场普遍预期看跌的情况下。

💡交易者报告

交易者报告是一种分析工具，显示了不同市场参与者的持仓情况。视频中提到的交易者报告显示，投机者在纳斯达克上的极端空头仓位，这与市场的实际上涨趋势相矛盾。

💡风险回报

风险回报是交易中衡量潜在收益与潜在损失的比率。视频中强调，通过分析市场情绪和定位，可以找到具有有利风险回报比的交易机会，即使不能预测市场，也可以通过这种方式提高盈利概率。

💡市场确认

市场确认是指等待市场走势来验证交易想法的过程。视频中提到，在进行交易决策时，不仅要依赖于新闻或分析，还要等待市场的实际走势来确认交易想法，以避免过早入市。

💡期货市场

期货市场允许投资者对未来价格进行投机。视频中提到，期货市场的持仓报告（如汽油和取暖油）可以用来预测市场走势，但同样需要市场确认来支持交易决策。

💡交易策略

交易策略是一套规则或方法，用于指导交易决策。视频中讨论了基于市场情绪和定位的交易策略，强调了等待市场确认的重要性，以及如何利用市场情绪和定位来提高交易的成功率。

💡群体心理

群体心理是指人们在群体中的行为和思维方式，它在金融市场中表现为市场情绪。视频中提到，要利用群体心理来寻找交易机会，因为市场往往会与大多数人的预期相反。

Highlights

Jason Shapiro讨论了市场运作和反应，特别是在过去两周内纳斯达克指数的表现。

市场普遍看空，金融电视和新闻网络每天重复这一观点。

交易者报告（Commitment of Traders）显示投机者相对于历史水平非常看空，而商业持仓者则相对看多。

市场情绪和持仓位置比基本面更重要，因为每个人都在关注基本面，所以市场已经将其计入价格。

纳斯达克指数在看空情绪中上涨，与美联储的政策无关。

市场参与者对美联储的政策解读存在分歧，但市场情绪和持仓位置是关键。

纳斯达克与其他市场（如道琼斯指数）的表现不同，显示出市场分化。

能源和金属市场的交易机会，尤其是在市场普遍看多石油和矿业股票时。

持仓报告显示，汽油和取暖油的投机者持仓与市场表现相反。

黄金和白银市场在看多情绪中出现逆转，显示出市场确认的重要性。

交易策略需要市场确认，不能仅凭新闻或专家意见立即行动。

橙汁市场的例子说明了即使新闻看多，也需要市场确认才能进行交易。

市场风险和回报的评估，强调了市场情绪和持仓位置在交易中的重要性。

即使在连续正确的预测之后，也不能保证下一次预测的准确性。

交易的目标是获得良好的风险回报比，而不是预测市场的未来。

市场参与者常因教育背景而过分强调基本面，而忽视了市场心理和持仓位置。

Jason Shapiro邀请观众加入crowdedmarketreport.com获取更多信息和交流。

Transcripts

foreign

[Music]

2023

I'm Jason Shapiro with crowded

marketreport.com

the past week or two weeks have really

been a laboratory for some of the things

that I try to talk about in terms of how

I feel the market really works and the

market really reacts there's so many

examples and so many talking points I I

hope I don't go off on a tangent here

but I'm gonna go through it a little bit

and we could pick so many markets but

let's start with the stock market okay

the stock market and in particular

NASDAQ in the last two weeks has gone

through a rep and what I've been talking

about on our newsletter and and

everywhere on Twitter and everywhere was

that

people were so short coming in to the

last couple weeks right so bearish and

so short I heard it on the financial TV

and news networks every single day every

single person that came on

said the same thing which is that they

were bearish it was I kept calling it

you know a Bear Parade right and you

know these are people who I have

listened to for a long time and it's one

thing when one of them who I know is a

great fate is bearish that's good

but it's another thing when every single

one of them is bearish right it to me it

just increases the odds so that's what's

been going on and if we look at

positioning which we know is my favorite

thing I mean this is the commitment of

Traders report for the NASDAQ right this

was last Friday this was the Friday

before even the Friday before we were

showing speculators Kevin look how short

they are compared to history look how

long the commercials are compared to

history the market went up

they got even shorter they were selling

into it so the commitments of Trader was

confirming what I was hearing on TV and

that's that's very very powerful this is

positioning and one of my favorite Fades

came on TV and he's been short buying

puts buying put spreads on basically

everything qqqs everything and he was

getting all angry that the market was

going up which is first of all a good

sign that it's going to continue up but

and he said something like you know I

realize that you know people were maybe

bearish coming into the year and I

realized that they were maybe short

coming into the year but

um sentiment and positioning is not

everything fundamentals matter

and I'd love to hear him say that

because in my view as a Trader

sentiment and positioning are everything

okay I had fundamentals don't matter and

the reason that fundamentals don't

matter is because everybody is paying

attention to them so therefore it's

discounted in the market right and that

is seen by the fact that everybody was

short right so the sentiment and

positioning is all that matters

I would argue so here they were with the

NASDAQ and they were super short and you

know we know what the NASDAQ did it went

it went straight up and I know people

want to say things like oh well you know

the FED came in and and was dovish or

whatever right and I'm here to say that

the Fed was not dovish all right the

first thing I was watching in retrospect

after the market went up

commentaries went out and said oh whoa

there was that one question that they

asked the Powell and he said this and

that was much more dovish than you would

have expected but in lifetime okay

um what it said um I'm just reading it

from here on the TV was I saw the

headlines on Bloomberg TV while he it

was going on ongoing rate hikes are

appropriate

delish okay inflation remains elevated

dovish no

positioning short sentiment terrible

yes okay that's what it was you can

blame it on the fed you could blame it

on whatever you want okay

that's what it was all right you're not

going to come out in retrospect and tell

me that the Fed was dovish

the market had gone down you would have

said the fetish hawkish okay

positioning sentiment all right and I

Wonder If the Fed was so dovish then why

was it all NASDAQ driven why didn't the

Dow go up you know that that was

basically flat which by the way if you

were bullish this this last couple weeks

and you were long down

you're pissed off because the Dow's gone

nowhere right where's the NASDAQ you

know obviously

has erect okay one bad decision

a long Dow not long NASDAQ and it's a

whole different game so let's look can

we figure out where that was well this

is the NASDAQ commitment of Traders this

is the NASDAQ positioning

all right

here's where they're super short

and here

is the depth position

a huge bunch more neutral right

the commercials were a little bit longer

here in the middle of December which is

when that was outperforming and then

they came off

and then that way underperformed and

just as an aside here's anike where the

speculators were also super short and lo

and behold here's Anika which is ripped

right

so

sentiment

positioning okay that's where we're

going to get our risk reward there's no

guarantee

but that's where we are going to get our

risk reward all right I could pick so

many markets here it's silly but one of

the things that I was um

saying a lot on Twitter in particular

this last week was I thought that the

NASDAQ

um long versus a short in energies and

and uh Metals was was a great trade

why did I say that again everybody on TV

was saying buy oil stocks everybody on

TV was saying my morning sucks they're

bearish the stock market but

they think oil stocks are good they

think mining stocks are good all right

that's what I heard every day for two

weeks okay and then again let's go to

the cot

was really nowhere but here longest

speculators were gasoline that's the our

Bob chart

in this entire thing right this is the

commercials for heating law okay

shortest commercials work you know okay

they were shorter one time right here

right

and then we look at what

those wonderful markets did this week

okay here's gasoline

right

it's a big move now and particularly you

know in a stock market that's going up

right

here's heating oil right crushed right

metals

here's gold

right

here's silver

Okay so

these are sort of the good things and

again

what you wanted to do if you see this

you don't just do it right away hey this

guy on TV that I think is a fade said

you know would be long oil and be long

gold so I'm gonna fade it you want as I

say many times to wait

for a market confirmation this day in

Gold quite frankly which was Thursday

was the market confirmation you see that

reversal day thing gapped up to a new

high

closed down on the day while risk assets

were going up right while the dollar was

going down

while Bonds were going up

those are all bullish gold things

and yet gold closed down had what they

call an outside reversal they closed

down and then the thing you know lo and

behold the employment report came out

blah blah the thing

got rocked today so that's how you want

to do it so those are kind of Trades

that worked all right not all trades

work so and not all of these things are

set up

not set up but when they're set up

doesn't mean they happen you have to

wait for that market confirmation so

let's look at an example

of that this is one that I have been

I would have to say

bearish on right

because of the commitment of Traders

report right orange juice

now orange juice is like exactly what I

Look to short all right because articles

are coming out every day about orange

juice how the frost and the hurricanes

and you have the smallest orange juice

crop in Florida ever and there's a huge

shortage and and this and that and here

we have the commitments of Traders or

speculators are getting mega long

commercials getting mega short so I am

looking to get short but I'm not going

too short

until there's Market confirmation right

which is some kind of failure some kind

of reversal deck there's the oh it's

juice chart your literally will move

from 200 you know to 240 20 moving a

week getting in the way of that would

have gotten you run over

so you have to wait for the market to

confirm it first okay the news is both

super bullish okay the competitive

Traders is showing that people are too

long you have to wait for Market

confirmation and the combination of

those two things

put you in a good risk reward trade

doesn't guarantee anything but puts you

in a good risk reward position which is

all we are trying to do over time nobody

can predict the future okay I made a

couple good calls the last couple weeks

okay does that mean that my next call is

any good

nobody can predict the future all right

and just because somebody was bullish

and the market went up

if somebody was bearish and the market

went down I mean it's a 50 50 shot if

you line up a thousand people

and have them call heads or tails and

flip a coin at the end of nine flips

there's gonna be one guy standing who

called Nine flips in a row heads or

tails you know what the chances of him

calling heads or tails on the next flip

bar I guarantee you 50 50. all right but

what you want to do on that flip is if

you're gonna bet on it you want to get

paid 60 cents if you're right and 40

cents if you're wrong

and you want to do that as many times as

you can because we know it's going to

come up heads or tails 50 of the time if

you can get paid 60 and lose 40 then

over time you're going to make money

that's what positioning and sentiment

does right I don't know that it

necessarily changes the odds of

something happening but it changes the

payoff of something happening and if you

want to say hey the NASDAQ went up

because the you know

the Federal Reserve was was more dovish

than than you thought then that's fine

okay the point is going into it before

we know what they're going to say

everybody knew that they were going to

be hawkish okay

everybody was embarrassed going into it

all right so it changes the odds if

they're hawkish

maybe the markers down a little bit you

have to let even a little bit less than

luckish which if you want to say they

were you probably then look what happens

the market rips it changes the payout

not the odds and that's what trading is

all about and that's what this markets

are all about all right say it again

sentiment and positioning

the rest quite frankly is just

for people to talk about because they

spend all their money on getting an MBA

and getting a CFA right and they can't

admit that they just spend all that time

and money learning something that

doesn't help them in the market you know

are the fundamentals do they matter I

mean they matter but they're discounted

in because all of these people that got

mbas and cfas are smart and able and

they already know this information

there's nothing there so you've got to

fade the mass

psychology and positioning Okay so I

hope that helps

um I hope I didn't ramble too much but I

just think like I say the last couple

weeks are where the perfect laboratory

for this stuff so uh let me know if you

have any questions or comments and

please join us on crowded market report

where we talk about all this stuff and

we have the charts and

the Discord and it's real fun so um

hopefully we'll see you there and uh I

wish everybody a good week