When China stopped having children
Summary
TLDRIn den letzten hundert Jahren hat sich die Geburtenrate weltweit drastisch verändert. Früher bekamen Frauen durchschnittlich fünf bis sechs Kinder, von denen viele vor dem Erwachsenenalter starben. Heute liegt die Zahl bei zwei oder drei Kindern pro Frau, wobei fast alle gesund aufwachsen. Diese Entwicklung führte zu einem schnellen Bevölkerungswachstum, da Kinder überleben und Menschen länger und gesünder leben. Besonders in China hat sich die Geburtenrate aufgrund staatlicher Eingriffe, wie der Ein-Kind-Politik, radikal verändert, was zu einer Reihe von sozialen und demografischen Herausforderungen führte. Die Zukunft der Bevölkerungsentwicklung, insbesondere in China, wirft Fragen auf, da der Trend zu niedrigeren Geburtenraten anhält und ältere Bevölkerungsgruppen einen zunehmenden Anteil der Gesellschaft ausmachen.
Takeaways
- 😲 Over the last 100 years, global fertility rates have rapidly declined from 5-6 children per woman to around 2-3 today
- 😎 Improvements in health and medicine have enabled more children to survive to adulthood, driving initial population booms
- 💡 The 'demographic transition model' helps explain how populations stabilize over time as child mortality declines
- 🚼 China's one-child policy (1979-2015) successfully reduced fertility rates from 6 to 1.5 children per woman
- 😥 The policy had negative consequences like forced abortions, female infanticide, and millions of unregistered children
- 👧 Today, China has one of the most skewed gender ratios in the world - 120 boys for every 100 girls
- 😮 China's population is expected to peak around 2030 and then decline by 400 million by 2100
- 🇨🇳 An aging population and shrinking workforce poses economic challenges for China's future
- 🔄 Other East Asian countries like Japan and Korea face similar demographic challenges
- 🤔 Social norms around smaller families are deeply entrenched, making it hard for China to boost fertility
Q & A
Wie viele Kinder hatte eine Frau in China in den 1960er Jahren im Durchschnitt?
-In den 1960er Jahren hatte eine Frau in China im Durchschnitt sechs Kinder.
Wie schnell sank die Fruchtbarkeitsrate in China zwischen 1970 und 1980?
-Die Fruchtbarkeitsrate in China sank zwischen 1970 und 1980 sehr schnell von fast sechs auf zweieinhalb innerhalb von nur 10 Jahren.
Was war das Ziel der Ein-Kind-Politik in China?
-Das Ziel der Ein-Kind-Politik war, die Bevölkerungswachstumsrate in China zu senken.
Welche negativen Auswirkungen hatte die Ein-Kind-Politik?
-Die Ein-Kind-Politik führte zu Zwangsabtreibungen, Zwangssterilisationen und seelischen Narben bei Millionen von Menschen. Auch entstanden Millionen von Kinder ohne Staatsbürgerschaft und Rechte.
Was ist eine Folge des Geschlechterungleichgewichts durch die Ein-Kind-Politik?
-Eine Folge ist ein Geschlechterungleichgewicht mit Millionen fehlenden Mädchen in der Bevölkerung. Heute gibt es etwa 120 Jungen auf 100 Mädchen zwischen 0 und 15 Jahren.
Wie wird sich Chinas Bevölkerung bis 2100 laut UN-Prognose entwickeln?
-Laut UN-Prognose wird Chinas Bevölkerung bis 2100 um 400 Millionen auf etwa 1 Milliarde sinken.
Welche demografischen Herausforderungen bringt der Bevölkerungsrückgang?
-Eine kleinere junge Generation muss eine größere ältere Generation versorgen. Es gibt mehr Rentner bei weniger Erwerbstätigen.
Seit wann ist die Ein-Kind-Politik offiziell abgeschafft?
-Die Ein-Kind-Politik ist seit 2015 offiziell abgeschafft.
Was unternimmt China, um die Geburtenrate wieder zu steigern?
-China fördert jetzt Eltern, mehr Kinder zu bekommen, um künftige Arbeitskräfte zu sichern.
Warum ist es schwierig, den Geburtenrückgang umzukehren?
-Moderne Faktoren wie Urbanisierung, Karrieredenken und höhere Lebenshaltungskosten in Städten wirken einer Erhöhung der Geburtenrate entgegen.
Outlines
🌍 Globale demografische Veränderungen
Im Laufe der letzten hundert Jahre hat sich das Fortpflanzungsverhalten der Menschen weltweit drastisch verändert. Früher bekamen Frauen im Durchschnitt fünf bis sechs Kinder, von denen viele vor Erreichen des gebärfähigen Alters starben. Heutzutage haben die meisten Frauen in den meisten Ländern zwei bis drei Kinder, die fast alle gesund aufwachsen. Diese Entwicklung hat zu einem schnellen Bevölkerungswachstum geführt, da Kinder überleben und die Menschen länger und gesünder leben. Die Anzahl der Kinder, die Paare zu haben entscheiden, hat sich auf etwa zwei pro Paar verringert, was zur Reproduktionsrate führt. Dieser Trend verläuft jedoch in verschiedenen Ländern unterschiedlich schnell und wird durch Faktoren wie Familienplanungsmaßnahmen beeinflusst. In China beispielsweise fiel die Geburtenrate von sechs auf zwei Komma fünf innerhalb von zehn Jahren, ein Rückgang, der in anderen Ländern viel länger dauerte. Die Durchsetzung der Ein-Kind-Politik durch Propaganda, sozialen Druck und teils harte Strafen führte zu unregistrierten Kindern ohne Bürgerrechte und einer geschlechtsspezifischen Ungleichheit aufgrund der Bevorzugung männlicher Nachkommen.
🇨🇳 Chinas demografische Herausforderungen
Die Fertilitätsrate in China ist einer der niedrigsten weltweit, mit 1,5 oder 1,6 Kindern pro Frau in den letzten 25 Jahren. Trotz einer Bevölkerung von 1,4 Milliarden Menschen nähert sich das Wachstum einem Stillstand, und die UNO prognostiziert, dass die Bevölkerung ab 2031 zu schrumpfen beginnt, mit Indien, das China als bevölkerungsreichstes Land überholen wird. Urbanisierung und die Suche nach wirtschaftlichen Möglichkeiten führen zu einer Abwanderung aus ländlichen Gebieten. Bis 2100 könnte die Bevölkerung um 400 Millionen Menschen abnehmen, was den Druck auf jüngere Generationen erhöht, eine wachsende Zahl älterer Menschen zu unterstützen. Die Aufhebung der Ein-Kind-Politik und die Einführung einer Zwei-Kind-Politik zielen darauf ab, die Arbeitskraft zu sichern, doch die niedrige Fertilitätsrate scheint beständig. Weitere Faktoren wie Urbanisierung, Lebenshaltungskosten und ein karrierefokussierter Lebensstil erschweren die Erhöhung der Geburtenrate. Die Prognosen deuten darauf hin, dass Chinas Bevölkerung möglicherweise schneller schrumpft als erwartet, was langfristige soziale und wirtschaftliche Herausforderungen mit sich bringt.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bevölkerungswachstum
💡Fruchtbarkeitsrate
💡Ein-Kind-Politik
💡Bevölkerungsrückgang
💡Soziale Normen
💡Geschlechterungleichgewicht
💡Alternde Bevölkerung
💡Arbeitskräfte
💡Urbanisierung
💡Bildung von Frauen
Highlights
China had fertility rate of 6 babies per woman in 1960s, dropped to 2.5 by 1980, equivalent drop took other countries much longer
One-child policy introduced in 1979, used propaganda, incentives and punishments to enforce
One-child policy led to gender imbalance, 120 boys for every 100 girls under 15
Millions unregistered children unable to access education, jobs, marry due to extra child fines
China's population growth slowing, will start declining around 2025
China's population predicted to drop by 400 million by 2100
Aging population will pressure smaller younger groups supporting larger older groups
One-child policy made China age faster than US, close to Japan levels
China trying to promote higher birth rates but facing uphill battle
Low fertility trends likely to continue, could decline faster than UN predictions
Population decline could start in 5 years, under 1.3 billion by 2050
Neighboring countries struggling with low fertility rates too
Social norms for small families deeply rooted after decades of interventions
Population could fall below 680 million by 2100
UN predictions may be too conservative given China's rapid development
Transcripts
[Music]
humans are not having children the way
they used to and the course of the last
hundred years most countries on earth
have gone from every woman having on
average five or six children many of
them dying before reaching childbearing
age to women in most countries having
two or three children and almost all of
them growing up healthy to adulthood and
having one or two children of their own
this development is resulting in rapid
population increase when children are
surviving and people are living longer
and healthier lives
the population increases the number of
children couples decide to have
decreased to around point of
reproduction when every couple on
average have two children this although
happens with the delay of one or two
generations and is explained by the
demographic transition which we will
come back to in a future video even
though the trend is the same the change
has gone with different speed in
different countries and worse things
intervene with family planning measures
the decline in fertility rate can go
fast
[Music]
China in the 1960s had a population of
around 650 million and a fertility rate
of six babies born per woman around a
quarter of all children died before the
age of five and the numbers were
especially bad during the so-called
Great Leap Forward an effort of Mao's
regime to increase foreign trade by
exporting life-supporting crops while
nationalizing farmland from private
owners and enforcing strict government
set prices on harvests pushing
agriculture outputs out of sync with
actual consumption needs and starting
the greatest famine of human history the
Chinese government was much like most of
the world visa fighting a perceived
threat of overpopulation and was with
propaganda campaigns trying to establish
social norms and reducing the fertility
rate of Chinese women and from 1970 to
1980 the rate dropped from almost six to
two and a half in just 10 years
the equivalent drop took for example the
United States eight years between 1850
in 1930 India did within sixty years
Brazilian 35 another nation developing
very fast in the Far East South Korea
did it in 20
then came the policy of one child with
few exceptions Chinese families were
expected to have no more than one child
from the time of the policy going into
effect in 1979 the enforcement was
conducted on the local level with great
variations of style in intensity and was
using soft weapons like propaganda and
social pressure to positive offers to
couple's conforming with the system of
money prioritized enrollment in schools
for the child preferable housing
opportunities and retirement funds but
also harsh negative impacts on couples
deciding to have another child like
forced abortions and sterilization
inflicting physical and mental scars on
tens of millions of people
the system also resulted in many
children being raised unregistered by
the government just due to them having
older siblings and their parents unable
to pay the fines associated with
registering multiple children for a
family fines often the equivalent of
several years of income these millions
of children are living their lives
without citizenship and hence are kept
out of education employment and the
opportunity to marry and raise a family
of their own even though some
restrictions have been lifted in the
last few years this is still the reality
for many of the children being born out
of wedlock whereas a second or third
child
[Music]
the one-child policy was introduced in a
country with highly traditional gender
roles the preference for many families
to have sons to raise income supporting
aging parents and marrying a future wife
into the family led to gender selective
abortions and the abandoning and even
killing or female infants this is
causing a gender imbalance with millions
of girls missing from the population and
still today there are close to 120 boys
for every 100 girls between the ages of
0 and 15 in China way above the world
average of 105 to 103 regions and
villages where the disparity is even
higher it is worth to mention here that
many other aspects of fertility decline
is at play like for the rest of the
world female education a decline in
agricultural dependency urbanization the
decline in child mortality and female
political empowerment maybe not so much
the last one regarding China
specifically it's affecting the 50 of
the rate and pushing it downward in many
countries rapidly but the shift that
happened in China that have resulted in
one of the lowest numbers in the world a
1.5 or 1.6 children born per woman has
been the reality now for the last 25
years and the question is what will
happen to it in the future
the population of China is at 1.4
billion people today but the growth rate
is coming to a halt and the number will
start to decline according to the UN
medium prediction in 2031 India will
pass as the most populated country four
years before that the regional divide in
China is striking almost the entire
population lives in the eastern parts of
the nation while the rural regions the
West are sparsely populated and the
population losses due to urbanization
and perceived economic opportunities
pulling migration away from the rural
areas
[Music]
the population is predicted to decrease
with 64 million from its peak by 2050
and by the year 2100 down by 400 million
to just over 1 billion people this will
put a large pressure on the smaller
younger age groups supporting large
parent and grandparent generations with
the clear reduction in working age
population while the older are
increasing in share of the total
population and living longer lives the
one-child policy and the long term low
fertility rate of the modern-day Chinese
society will make the country age faster
its median age passing the United States
and closing in on its neighbor Japan
over the coming decades since 2015 the
one-child policy is officially scrapped
for a more flexible with Chinese
standards to child policy China is once
again promoting parents to have children
to secure the future working force and
economic development it is fighting an
uphill struggle a society that has
adopted a low fertility number has a
tendency to stay low and other factors
are working against the Chinese
government in this regard manufacturers
that has driven the economic development
of the last decades like fast
organization an increased cost of living
in the larger cities and the
career-focused lifestyle China is also
accepting few well-chosen no way
immigrants
and looking at the other nations in the
region does not give confidence that the
development can be turned around Japan
and South Korea are struggling with low
numbers themselves and in Hong Kong and
Singapore the fertility rate might even
be below 1 now the UN medium prediction
mentioned earlier leading to a reduction
of population by 400 million in just 70
years might even turn out to be a very
conservative estimate Darrel Bricker and
John Abbott s'en org using an empty
planet in 2019 that the UN medium
variant relies too much on earlier
experience of neighboring nations not
factoring in the rapid shift in
educational development and urbanization
and predicting a slight increase in
fertility rate over the coming decades
closing in on point of reproduction
something the authors find much unlikely
the social norms promoting small
families with one or two children have
after decades of government
interventions deeply rooted themselves
in the Chinese society instead the low
estimate by the UN it's much more likely
to be the case for China this would mean
the population would start to decline in
just five years from now passing under
1.3 billion by 2050 and then we cut in
half in the next coming 50 years to just
684 million by 2100
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