What outperforms in a recession??
Summary
TLDRDieses Wochen-Finanzmarkt-Update bietet einen umfassenden Überblick über wichtige Marktentwicklungen: Ein gemischter Start für Aktien, mögliche Rezession, geopolitische Spannungen mit Iran und Israel, sowie Analysen zu Rohstoffen und Wechselkursen. Es geht um Inflationsdaten, Rohölpreisschwankungen, Goldrekord und den Einfluss auf Hedge-Fonds. Zudem werden saisonale Trends und potenzielle Handelsstrategien für eine Rezession diskutiert, um Marktteilnehmer für die kommenden Entwicklungen zu wappnen.
Takeaways
- 📈 Der Aktienmarkt hat einen gemischten Start in die Woche, mit Schwerpunkt auf den AO-Aktien und der Frage, ob wir bereits in einer Rezession sind.
- 💣 Die Gefahren eines Konflikts zwischen dem Iran und Israel, mit möglichen Angriffen auf Öl und damit verbundenen Preissteigerungen sowie Rekordhöhen für Gold.
- 📊 Wichtige wirtschaftliche Daten werden in der kommenden Woche veröffentlicht, einschließlich PPI-Inflation, CPI-Inflation, Einzelhandelsdaten und der Verbrauchersentiment-Umfrage.
- 🏢 Große Einzelhändler wie Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba und JD.com werden in dieser Woche ihr Quartalsgeschäfts Ergebnis veröffentlichen.
- 📝 Die neuesten Bewegungen der Hedge-Fonds werden mit der Einreichung ihrer Form 13F am Mittwoch bekannt gegeben, was wichtige Hinweise auf ihre Handelsentscheidungen im vorherigen Quartal gibt.
- 🔍 Die Reaktion des Iran auf die Ereignisse in der Region und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt und Rohstoffeinzelhandel werden in der kommenden Woche beobachtet.
- 📉 Die Marktanalyse zeigt, dass trotz des Rückgangs der Volatilität und der Anpassung der Bond-Kurse, die Marktlage immer noch unsicher ist, insbesondere in Bezug auf die Öl- und Goldmärkte.
- 🤔 Die Diskussion um die Rezessionschancen und welche Handelsstrategien möglicherweise gut abschneiden könnten, wenn eine Rezession eintritt, einschließlich der Rolle von Gold und Zinsanleihen.
- 💻 Die Bedeutung der AI-Booms und der Ausgaben von Tech-Unternehmen für AI-Infrastruktur, und wie diese Ausgaben in zukünftigen Quartalen Gewinne erzeugen müssen, um den Markt zufriedenzustellen.
- 🌐 Die Vorherrschaft der USA in Bezug auf Datenzentren und ihre Auswirkungen auf die globale Technologie-Landschaft und Stromverbrauch.
- 🚀 Die Erwartungen für die zukünftigen Ergebnisse von NVIDIA und die Rolle von GPU-Chip-Herstellern in der AI-Industrie.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptthema des heutigen Finanzmarktberichts?
-Der Hauptthema des Berichts ist die gemischte Start für Märkte, die Möglichkeit einer Rezession, die Situation im Nahen Osten, insbesondere was das Potenzial für einen Angriff des Iran auf Israel betrifft, sowie die Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte wie Öl und Gold.
Welche wirtschaftlichen Daten werden in dieser Woche veröffentlicht?
-In dieser Woche werden PPI-Inflation, CPI-Inflation, Einzelhandelsdaten und eine Verbrauchersentiment-Umfrage veröffentlicht.
Welche großen Einzelhändler werden in dieser Woche ihr Ergebnis veröffentlichen?
-Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, JD.com und einige kleinere amerikanische Einzelhändler werden in dieser Woche ihr Ergebnis veröffentlichen.
Was ist der Signifikanz der Veröffentlichung der Form 13F für Hedge-Fonds?
-Die Veröffentlichung der Form 13F ist wichtig, da Hedge-Fonds innerhalb von 45 Tagen nach dem Ende des Quartals ihre Handelsaktivitäten im vorherigen Quartal mitteilen müssen. Dies gibt Einblicke in die Handelsstrategien der größten Hedge-Fonds wie Pershing Square von Bill Ackman.
Was könnte die Entwicklung im Nahen Osten für die Finanzmärkte bedeuten?
-Eine Eskalation der Situation im Nahen Osten, insbesondere ein möglicher Angriff des Iran auf Israel, könnte die Finanzmärkte beeinflussen, indem sie Unsicherheit schafft, den VIX erhöht und möglicherweise zu einem Anstieg von Öl- und Goldpreisen führt.
Was zeigt die historische Datenanalyse, wenn die VIX über 50 steigt?
-Historisch gesehen, wenn die VIX über 50 steigt, ist es in 91 Fällen der Fall, dass der S&P 500 ein Jahr später höher liegt, was auf eine Anreicherung der Marktfurcht hinweist, die aber im Laufe des Jahres abnimmt.
Wie wirkt sich eine positive Leistung des S&P 500 im ersten Halbjahr des Jahres auf das zweite Halbjahr aus?
-Wenn der S&P 500 im ersten Halbjahr um mehr als 10% steigt, endet das zweite Halbjahr in der Regel positiv, insbesondere in Zeiten der Föderalreservepolitik, die nach dem Schwarzen Montag 1987 eingeführt wurde.
Was könnte die Rezession für den Aktienmarkt bedeuten und welche Strategien könnten angewendet werden?
-Eine Rezession könnte zu einem Rückgang des Aktienmarkts führen. Strategien zur Abdeckung des Risikos könnten die Anlage in US-Bundesanleihen sein, die von einer Senkung der Zinssätze profitieren, oder in Gold, das sowohl bei Inflation als auch Deflation eine Schutzfunktion erfüllt.
Was ist die Rolle von Nvidia in der aktuellen AI-Boom-Situation?
-Nvidia ist ein wichtiger Lieferant von AI-Infrastruktur wie GPU-Chips und Datenzentren. Sie müssen den Markt nun überzeugen, dass ihre Investitionen in AI-Infrastruktur in zukünftigen Quartalen und Jahren in Gewinne umgesetzt werden können.
Welche Faktoren könnten einen möglichen Krieg zwischen dem Iran und Israel auslösen?
-Ein möglicher Krieg könnte durch eine Eskalation von Provokationen seitens des Irans ausgelöst werden, insbesondere wenn dieser signifikanten Schaden an Israel verursacht oder wenn Israel entscheidet, eine entschiedene Antwort auf die Provokationen zu geben.
Was ist die Beziehung zwischen der Inversion des Bond-Yield-Curves und der Rezession?
-Eine Inversion des Bond-Yield-Curves, wie die Differenz zwischen den Zinsen für 10-jährige und 2-jährige US-Bundesanleihen, kann oft als Indikator für eine kommende Rezession innerhalb von 6 bis 12 Monaten gewertet werden.
Wie beeinflusst die Cyber-Sicherheit die Aktienmärkte?
-Die Cyber-Sicherheit ist eine der Hauptbedenken der CEOS, was auf eine wachsende Nachfrage nach Cyber-Sicherheitsaktien hindeutet und somit die Wichtigkeit dieser Branche im Aktienmarkt hervorhebt.
Outlines
📈 Finanzmarkt-Update: Mischung aus Märkten, Wirtschaftsdaten und geopolitischen Spannungen
Dieses Kapitel bietet einen Überblick über die aktuellen Entwicklungen in den Finanzmärkten, einschließlich der PPI-Inflation, die am Anfang der Woche erwartet wird, gefolgt von den wichtigeren CPI-Daten, die am Mittwoch veröffentlicht werden. Es geht auch um den Einfluss von Einzelhandelsdaten, der Konsumsentwicklung und der Aktionen von Hedge-Fonds, die in der zweiten Quartalseinreichung offenbart werden. Zudem werden die geopolitischen Spannungen im Nahen Osten und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte diskutiert, einschließlich des Anstiegs von Öl- und Goldpreisen infolge der drohenden iranischen Bedrohungen gegenüber Israel.
📉 Analyse der Marktbewegungen und der Auswirkungen auf den AI-Boom
Dieser Abschnitt präsentiert eine Analyse der aktuellen Marktbewegungen, einschließlich der Rückkehr der S&P 500 zu höheren Hochs und der Beobachtung, dass der Markt möglicherweise auf eine weitere Umkehrung hinwirken könnte, besonders wenn es extreme CPI-Daten oder geopolitische Überraschungen gibt. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung der AI-Infrastruktur-Ausgaben durch Tech-Unternehmen und deren Auswirkungen auf den Aktienmarkt eingegangen, sowie auf die Notwendigkeit, dass diese Unternehmen einen Rücksprung ihrer Investitionen zeigen müssen, um den Markt nicht zu enttäuschen.
🌐 Globale Datenzentren und ihre Bedeutung für die US-Außenpolitik
Dieses Kapitel untersucht die Rolle der Datenzentren in den Vereinigten Staaten im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern und zeigt, dass Amerika in Bezug auf Datenverarbeitungskapazität und -nutzung weit vor der Welt liegt. Es geht auch um die Auswirkungen dieser Dominanz auf den Stromverbrauch und die Rolle von Technologieunternehmen, die inzwischen mehr Energie verbrauchen als ganze Länder. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen der bevorstehenden Inflation und der möglichen Zinssenkungen durch die FED auf die Finanzmärkte diskutiert.
💣 Nahost-Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Finanzmärkte
Dieses Kapitel konzentriert sich auf die anhaltenden Spannungen im Nahen Osten und die Erwartungen, dass Iran möglicherweise einen Angriff auf Israel plant, was die Finanzmärkte beeinträchtigen könnte. Es wird auf die möglichen Auswirkungen dieses Konflikts auf Öl- und Goldmärkte und die damit verbundene Unsicherheit in den Finanzmärkten eingegangen. Zudem werden die langfristigen Auswirkungen einer möglichen Rezession und die Rolle von Gold als Schutz vor Inflation und Deflation diskutiert.
🏢 CEO-Bedenken und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft
Abschließend werden die Bedenken von CEOs aufgezeigt, die hauptsächlich durch Cyberangriffe und geopolitische Instabilität geprägt sind, und wie diese Bedenken die Wirtschaft und die Aktienmärkte beeinflussen könnten. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Cyber-Sicherheitsaktien und die Prioritäten der Führungsspitzen in Bezug auf neue Technologien und wirtschaftliche Risiken eingegangen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Recesssion
💡Inflation
💡Marktstart
💡Währungsumrechnung
💡Hedge-Fonds
💡Commodity Markets
💡Handelskonflikte
💡AI-Boom
💡Datenschutz
💡Gold
Highlights
Mixed start for markets with potential time bomb stocks and recession concerns.
Iran possibly on the verge of attacking, causing oil prices to rise and gold to hit record highs.
Key economic data releases this week include PPI inflation data, CPI inflation data, retail sales, and consumer sentiment survey.
Major retailers like Home Depot, Walmart, Alibaba, and JD.com will report earnings this week.
Hedge funds' latest movements to be revealed through Form 13F filings, providing insights into Q2 trades.
Markets are reacting to geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential for a large-scale attack by Iran on Israel.
Technical analysis of S&P 500 shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a potential market turnaround.
VIX above 50 indicates maximum fear, with historical data showing a positive S&P 500 performance a year later.
S&P 500's performance in the first half of the year suggests a likely positive outcome in the second half, especially in an election year.
Corporate earnings are better than expected, not causing market pullbacks.
Seasonality trends show similarities to last year's market movements, with potential for a pullback into late October.
Investor positioning and market insurance costs suggest caution and a potential market pullback.
AI boom and tech spending have been key drivers of the bull market, with NVIDIA as a significant beneficiary.
Data centers in the US significantly outnumber those globally, indicating American exceptionalism in AI and computing power.
Inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions may dominate market headlines and movements this week.
Gold's performance and central banks' demand suggest it as a potential hedge against economic uncertainties.
CEOs are more concerned about cybersecurity attacks than a recession, indicating a strong tailwind for cybersecurity stocks.
Iran's potential military actions and the global response could significantly impact markets and commodities.
Transcripts
coming up today a mixed start for
markets our AO stocks a time bomb are we
already in a recession Iran about to
attack oil rips higher gold hits record
highs the trade that can outperform in
our recession and I get you all prepped
for another big week in financial
markets let's have a good one
[Music]
guys and good evening good morning good
afternoon wherever you are joining me in
the world today hope you're feeling good
and ready for another big week in
financial markets we've got quite a lot
going on this week kicking off tomorrow
PPI inflation data heading into
Wednesday biggest one of the week CPI
inflation data we got a look at retail
sales on Thursday and the consumer
sediment survey on Friday and it's
retail week not only we're going to get
a look at retail sales data we got a
number of big key retailers reporting
earnings this week Home Depot tomorrow
Thursday we'll get to hear from Walmart
and a few Chinese ones as well Alibaba
jd.com and a few smaller American
retailers throughout the week we also
get a look at hedge funds latest
movements Wednesday afternoon with their
form 13 FD to be filed they've always
got 45 days after the end of the quarter
to let us know what trades they made in
the previous quarter so most of them
will file right at the end of that
deadline so I'll keep you guys updated
this week and want some of the biggest
hedge funds out there like Bill Amman
from persan Square what his moves have
been in Q2 along with a number of other
key hedge funds we'll take a look at
later on this week another key event
this week is we're waiting for Iran's
response and supposedly a large scale
attack on Israel it's already getting
markets moving to start off the week
I'll dive into this a bit later and then
we'll look at the commodity markets been
affected by that as well I'll also give
you an interesting look at some year-to
dat seasonality and we'll also talk
about the chances of a recession
happening and what sort of trade could
outperform if that does happen first off
let me just give you a quick bird's eye
view of the technical price action we're
getting across key markets to start the
week high highs higher lows in S&P 500
on a typical quiet low range day Market
does appear to be calling up after
bounced off that really sharp gap down
last Monday morning can see my wave
flowing IND at here starting to coil up
Market could be getting ready to turn
over again especially if we get a hot
CPI print or things in the Middle East
spill overboard as well bre's not the
best here looking at volume breath we
still have more than half of all stocks
above their 50-day average but we're
also getting more stocks hitting 52 we
lows and 52e highs still got a little
backwardation in the volatility term
structure nday higher than the vix
30-day option dealers pricing in a bit
of volatility this week probably with
CPI data and Iran good news is we've
still got volatility risk premium down
near zero bond market volatility is
elevated as is oil and gold market
volatility starting to break out as well
start off the week we got bond yield
stable two year at 4% 10 year at 390
we'll be looking for this 380 level to
be defended high Y old bonds still
holding up above their 50-day vwap the
Yen looks to have calmed down as well
keep an eye on the Japanese Yen this
week after the big scare to start off
last week was based on the Japanese Yen
there's a look at Bitcoin $59,000 to
start the week like I said I'll come
back to Gold later which hit a new
all-time high today and pretty good
bounce and crude oil now back above its
50-day vwap and just looking across
sectors it was mostly bearish out there
today of course gold mine is doing the
best little bounce there in energy
stocks with crude and still a little bit
of a defensive rotation got utility
still holding up well but first let's
just look at some data research and
headlin that you guys enjoy learning
about the first is what happens when the
vix goes above 50 like we saw this time
last week and shut up to 65 well this
chart's a little blurry but basically
it's happened 92 times before and
believe it or not 91 times there's some
p500 is higher a year later but what you
also see like we quite often see in
volatility Market is clustering back in
2008 2020 we can get multiple days even
stretching out over multiple weeks when
the vix is above 50 however does
indicate maximum fear and the difference
about this time compared to last times
is this was really more isolated
fundamentals is not as bad and it was
kind of strange almost having that sharp
vix Spike when the markets had just hit
alltime highs however another good stat
here from fun Strat is when the S&P 500
is up more than 10% in the first half of
the year which we've got this year most
of the time the second half will finish
positive as well especially in the era
of the fed put first introduced by
Greenspan 1987 after Black Monday in
which we' got a lot of other changes in
financial market around those mid late '
80s electrification amongst other things
you could kind of think of financial
markets really been modernized in the
mid late 80s since then the second half
has always finished higher when we're up
by more than 10% in the first half and
we are having a really good election
year we're up over over 177% coming into
July got a bit ahead of ourselves had a
bit of a healthy pullback we still could
have more to go remember that low back
in April in S&P was just below 5,000 so
if we got back to 5,000 that would take
us back in line to where we normally are
around this time of year in an election
year and see that bit of softness from
August through October normally we can
find a bottom around here rally into
Christmas and politically this is a
similar year to 1968 when lynon Johnson
pulled out of the presidential election
race just like we saw Biden pull out on
the 22nd of July and ever since then the
odds polls popularity of Camila Harris
has shot right up according to
mainstream media a lot of the Trump
trade in small caps Bitcoin in other
areas has had a sharp pullback along
with the market but of course there's
been other things attributed to that as
well Japanese Yen unwind maybe what's
going on in the Middle East however as
far as corporate earnings that's
actually coming better than expected so
the Market's not pulling back on a worse
than expected QT earnings season there
has to be other things going on looking
at some more seasonality we're tracking
very similar to last year ried up into
Late July pulled back into late October
we could be following that similar path
again and there is something about
August looking back in history you can
see these large external events with S&P
500 having some sharp intram mon draw
Downs in this month of August so we may
not have seen the worst of it just yet a
lot of investors have been spooked out
based on last week's events we can see
that in Consolidated Equity positioning
nearing highs bit over a week ago
however that's sharply pulled back into
underweight already a lot of them
investors did not buy the dip and in
fact they've bailed on this Market we
also saw that in a sharp rise for the
demand for stock market insurance cost
of hedging S&P 500 puts shot up last
week see that in the put core ratios and
quite elevated implied volatility
especially for out of the money puts and
can you imagine if we don't go into a
recession in the next 3 6 n months then
the market awakens to that reality and
in that time inflation has stayed low
and the fed's been able to pull back
interest rates what do you think's going
to happen to that over 6 trillion in
record money market funds people just
earning interest when they see their
Interest come down every month every
quarter lower interest repayments lower
interest repayments and they don't see
the stock market go down maybe it's
going up maybe they can still find
stocks yielding four or 5% there could
be a lot of dry powder ready to come
back into the stock market however a big
part of this bull market hinges on what
got us here in the first place we very
well may have had a recession last year
if it wasn't for the AI boom and a huge
amount of spending by cash flush tech
companies on AI infrastructure and for
sure there's risks depreciation one of
them companies that have spent huge on
AI infrastructure GPU chips data centers
they've got to prove to investors that's
going to result in some profits in the
quarters and year or two ahead investors
want to see a return on their investment
we don't want to see these assets being
depreciated with their marketto market
value going down more than the profits
they are generating cuz these gpus don't
last forever there's new ones coming out
all the time and so this is something
the market still skeptical about it's
good news for NVIDIA the pick and shovel
supplier of this AI boom but for all the
companies buying all that they need to
show some profits pretty soon otherwise
the market might get upset with that and
we'll get to hear from Nvidia bit later
on this month as they'll be reporting
earnings on the 28th and they should
easily meet analyst expectations if not
exceed them just as they have been for a
few years now companies are still
spending big on their gpus wall Street
still very bullish still selling a lot
of h100s they've already got their next
Generation Blackwell chips lined up
plenty more Runway ahead of and there's
a look at the price action in Nvidia
holding this support box from its last
earnings Gap up unless expecting 64
cents per share later this month current
market cap 2.68 trillion it's Fallen
below apple and Microsoft after it
briefly overtook them bit over a month
ago and you see all those charts of
America's stock market compared to the
rest of the world and you think surely
they've got to converge and whilst that
may happen I don't expect any major
convergence in fact American
exceptionalism may not be declining it
may actually be accelerating and one of
the best visualizations of that is just
looking at the number of data centers in
the United States versus the rest of the
world
5,381 second highest Germany 521 United
Kingdom 514 China 449 Canada 336 in fact
America has more data centers than the
rest of the world combined that's more
computing power that's more capacity to
do a lot of things and so America is
Head and Shoulders above the world when
it comes to Ai and compute and
processing power out there that's even
starting to show up in a chart of
electricity consumption with American
tech companies now starting to overtake
entire countries with the amount of
electricity they consume and that's
thanks to those data centers AI uses a
huge amount of electricity we now got
Google and Microsoft using more power
than Jordan Iceland Ghana Puerto Rico
and Croatia meta and apple On The Rise
as well however AI Mega cap Tech
earnings and the jobs Market will have
to take a bit of a backseat this week up
front and center is inflation starting
off produce a prices index tomorrow
expected to have risen 0.2% % in July
compared to 0.4% in June that would give
us a good year-over-year of 2.7% down
from 3% in the 12 months through June
then on Wednesday we'll get the big one
CPI just looking at Wall Street Bank
forecasts they're expecting month over
month to be 0.2% year-over-year 3% and
if that comes in as expected along with
Goldman Sachs that are still tracking Q2
GDP growth at 2.5% and they expect Q3 to
come in at 2.6% with a trade deficit
narrowing and if we get continued signs
of disinflation well we've still got
Financial stress and condition indices
relatively loose then it may just be the
green light for JP to go ahead and trim
the FED funds rate by 25 basis points as
I'd still give about a 70% chance of it
happening I'd say there might even be
more chance he stays on Paws than Cuts
50 basis point and just looking at the
2-year yield whilst there has been a lot
of volatility of late real sharp
repricing pretty much a tantrum by the
bond market I'll be paying attention to
the price action in this after we get
PPI and CPI this week as we could get a
bit of repricing in the fed fund Futures
as well what could really dominate the
headlines and markets this week is
what's going on in the Middle East we're
expecting this last week looking like
Ira may be getting cold feet maybe they
were just gearing up for something even
bigger than what was expected and that
could very well be the case and this
could spook markets further give us
another spike in vix another pullback in
stocks and golden oil may be the only
places to hide out Israel military is on
high alert us is sending more and more
assets into the region potentially
gearing up for a big Showdown and
possibly an offensive Mission against
Iran as well if they cause significant
damage on Israel the West has promised
to response to Iran and so Iran looks to
be potentially rolling the dice here
they have a history of biting back like
I said think of themselves as a top dogs
of the Middle East however they've never
really had a taste of a good Western
response to these continued provocations
from them so it appears Iran is building
a similar posture to that of the prior
attack they did in April in the western
part of their country getting a lot of
missiles and other assets ready the key
things to watch for here is a can they
inflict any significant damage on Israel
will they take any lives will they
damage any key assets or infrastructure
in Israel and then if so how big a
response will Israel and the wests be
towards Iran or maybe they don't even
need to inflict any damage on Israel
maybe Israel's had enough and trying to
give measured responses back to Iran and
just take out their military leaders as
they've already proven they can do they
can easily strike within Iranian
territory they may just go ahead and
send a couple of hundred missiles back
themselves and and let Iran deal with
that either way it's spooking commodity
markets oil trading up that'll be
another key leading indicator to watch
this week to see how worried markets are
about what's happening over there also
got precious medals turning high with
gold breaking out to new record highs
and this is just after we heard a week
and a half ago that gold demand just hit
a record high in the second quarter that
is the amount of actual buying in the
market and that's thanks to Central Bank
who ever since the outbreak of the
Ukraine war started accumulating gold
like crazy and that's the bricks Nations
they us sanctions on Russia locking up
Russian assets outside of the country
and they're looking to hedge their bets
get out of the dollar and get their
reserves into gold where the US
government doesn't have leverage over
them and that's a trend that's unlikely
to change anytime soon either and so
coupled with the fact that we've got an
inverted bond yield curve that's the
difference between the 10e and the
2-year treasury bond yields screaming
back to uninverted territory which quite
often can mean a recession 6 to 12
months later coupled with elevated
geopolitics not to mention the
Resurgence in inflation as as well we
can see that in container ship still
racing up this year and the potential
for unemployment to keep climbing as
well just looking back in history at
previous recessions what you'll see with
unemployment and this happens a lot in
financial markets Trends can start
gradually then happen all of a sudden
similar to how a wave builds in the
ocean really slowly hits a cresendo and
falls over the same thing can happen in
markets so there is the real potential
for a recession I would say starting in
q1 or Q2 next year and so what's a way
to position for that or potentially
hedge that risk well yeah treasury bonds
can help interest rates being cut that's
a strong tailwind and who knows wouldn't
it be surprised if we actually got a bit
of deflation with the recession as well
prices started Contracting that's good
for treasury bonds they'll protect you
against deflation cuz you're locking in
your money at a certain period of time
and you'll get back the same principle
in the future however treasury bonds
aren't good for inflation that is if we
do get a Resurgence in inflation what's
good for both inflation and deflation is
gold and so just looking at the yield
curve here in the blue line if I always
overlay this chart with the spread
between gold Futures and S&P 500 futur
is in the orange line You'll see there
is quite a bit of correlation that is
when the orange Line's going up Gold's
outperforming stocks when the orange
Line's going down Gold's underperforming
stocks and if I just go out to a twoe
chart just to smooth this out a little
bit you can see that correlation between
the spread and golden stocks and the
yield curve so just going back in
history looking at the data we've got
here back in late 05 going to 2006 2007
the bond yield curve was inverted it
went uninverted and then gold started
outperforming stocks just as the yield
curve was climbing back as well that
went on for a number of years going back
again in the late '90s Bono curve went
inverted in 2000 went uninverted and
look what also followed it gold
outperformed stocks for quite a few
years going ahead as well so here we are
now with the inverted Bon yield curve
the expectation is that's going to go
uninverted and we could very well be in
a recession like I said q1 Q2 next year
looking back in history if that were the
case gold could significantly outperform
stocks the other good thing is if we
happen to get a Resurgence in inflation
which again most people not expecting
just looking at the chart here of
inflation in the states year-over-year
there's that first wave in the early mid
1970s and it rolled over fed thought we
were good started cutting rates again
caused a second and larger high wave in
inflation going into the late 70s early
80s and if I just overlay this chart
with gold followed a very similar path
that Resurgence of inflation in the late
70s gone into the early 80s saw a
massive bull market in gold in fact
inflation adjusted we still haven't
taken out that high from back in 1979 so
the point is with all this backdrop gold
could be a good place to be in the
coming years it's why I have exposure in
it and I'm likely to keep adding
exposure to it as well and just looking
at a recent survey of CEOs and the
things they're really worried about here
in the blue bar is their most recent
reading in the orange from a year ago
the number one thing they're most
worried about is cyber attacks and
that's a strong Tailwind for cyber
security stocks next on the list
geopolitical instability they're worried
about war legal and Regulatory
uncertainty Ai and new technology
financial and econom risks coming in at
number five so CEOs are not really
worried about a recession right here in
fact they're way more worried about a
cyber security attack on their company
and so that pretty much wraps it up guys
to get you all prepped for this week a
few key events the Market's hinging on
this week PPI tomorrow CPI Wednesday
couple of key earnings retail sales
Thursday anduma sent Friday then
probably the big one Iran how big are
they going to go on Israel how much
damage can they inflict what will be
Israel's and the West response and
potentially from that what will Russia
and China's response respon be to Israel
in the west and how much will they go in
there and try and back stop Iran and by
the end of the week we could be in a
fullscale war by Iran versus Israel
hopefully not but the balls really in
the Iranians caught Israel took out a
few of their military commanders Iran
could be about to send four 500 missiles
back in response and like I said the
Israel and the West may just have had
enough of it and want to put Iran in
their place I'll be paying attention to
it along with these other key economic
developments and of course as always the
price action that we get and markets
thanks very much for sticking with click
capital and I'll keep you updated all
throughout the week cheers
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