Will this Asteroid DESTROY Earth in 2038? | Dhruv Rathee

Summary

This video script debunks sensationalist claims about asteroid collisions, focusing on the reality of Earth's asteroid threat. It explains the difference between asteroids, comets, meteors, and meteorites, and clarifies that no imminent large-scale asteroid collision is expected in the next 100 years. The script details NASA's planetary defense strategies, including kinetic impacts and the Near Earth Object Surveyor's upcoming launch, assuring viewers that Earth is well-prepared to handle potential asteroid threats.

Takeaways

• 🌌 The asteroid Apophis, over 1000 feet in diameter, will pass by Earth in 2029 at a close proximity, but it poses no threat of collision with 0% chance.
• 💥 The hypothetical scenario of an asteroid collision in 2038 with a 72% chance is a part of a NASA exercise to assess Earth's preparedness, not a real prediction.
• 📚 Asteroids are known as 'Planetoids' and vary greatly in size, with the smallest being 2 meters wide and the largest, Ceres, at 940 kilometers in diameter.
• 📍 Most asteroids in our solar system are found in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter, with an average distance of over 1 million kilometers between any two asteroids.
• 👀 Near Earth Objects (NEOs) include not only asteroids but also comets, meteors, meteorites, and meteoroids, each with distinct compositions and behaviors.
• 🔭 Comets are considered more dangerous than asteroids due to their higher speed and shorter warning time before potential impacts.
• 🚀 NASA and other space agencies have detection systems in place, such as LINEAR, CSS, PAN STARRS, and ATLAS, to identify and track NEOs.
• 🛡 Earth's defense against asteroid impacts includes kinetic impactors, slow push/pull methods, and as a last resort, nuclear methods, though the latter has significant drawbacks.
• 🔬 Data science plays a crucial role in predicting asteroid paths and is a valuable tool in various fields, including space exploration.
• 🚀 NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully demonstrated the kinetic impact method by changing the orbit of a non-threatening asteroid.
• 🔮 Future advancements in detection systems, such as the Near Earth Object Surveyor telescope planned for 2028, will further improve our ability to identify and mitigate asteroid threats.

Q & A

What is the significance of the date 13th April, 2029, in relation to asteroid Apophis?

On 13th April, 2029, the asteroid Apophis, which is more than 1000 feet in diameter, will pass by Earth at an extremely close proximity of only 30,000 km, which is closer than many geostationary satellites. However, it has a 0% chance of colliding with Earth.

What is the difference between asteroids, comets, meteors, meteorites, and meteoroids?

Asteroids are made of rocks and metals and are found in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter. Comets are made of ice, rocks, and dust and are found in the Kuiper Belt. Meteoroids are small pieces of asteroids or comets. When a meteoroid enters Earth's atmosphere, it is called a Meteor, which can create a Meteor Shower. If a meteor survives its passage through the atmosphere and lands on Earth, it is called a Meteorite.

Why are comets considered more dangerous than asteroids in terms of potential Earth impact?

Comets are considered more dangerous because they travel at twice the speed of asteroids, and the warning time for a potential impact is shorter. Comets can suddenly appear and collide with Earth without much advance notice.

What is the role of the Near Earth Object Surveyor that NASA plans to launch in 2028?

The Near Earth Object Surveyor is a space telescope planned by NASA to be stationed outside Earth. Its role is to detect asteroids and other near-Earth objects, thereby improving our detection systems for potential threats.

What is the Kinetic Method for dealing with a potential asteroid impact, and has it been tested?

The Kinetic Method involves sending a spacecraft to collide with an asteroid, thereby changing its orbit. This method has been successfully tested in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022, where a spacecraft was launched to collide with a non-threatening asteroid to confirm that the method effectively changes the asteroid's orbit.

What is the Slow Push and Pull method for altering an asteroid's orbit, and what are the concerns associated with it?

The Slow Push and Pull method involves gradually changing an asteroid's orbit using solar energy. A spacecraft near the asteroid could concentrate the sun's rays on it, vaporizing part of the asteroid and releasing gas for a small thrust that would slowly change the asteroid's orbit. The concern is that the rocks on the asteroid should not interfere with the spacecraft's optical system before being vaporized.

What are the legal and geopolitical issues associated with using the Nuclear Method to deal with an asteroid threat?

The Nuclear Method, which involves sending a spacecraft carrying nuclear bombs to destroy an asteroid, can lead to legal, international, and geopolitical problems. Additionally, the destruction of the asteroid could result in its pieces being blown up and potentially colliding with Earth, making it a risky option.

What is the role of the LINEAR project in detecting near-Earth objects?

The Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) project, a collaboration between the US Air Force, NASA, and MIT, uses two 1-metre long telescopes and a 0.5-metre telescope to discover more than 10,000 objects every year. It is responsible for detecting 65% of all discovered asteroids.

What was the Chelyabinsk meteor event, and how did it demonstrate the limitations of asteroid detection systems?

The Chelyabinsk meteor event occurred in 2013 in Russia, where a 20-metre wide meteor exploded above the city, causing damage and injuries. The meteor was not detected by any system in time, highlighting the limitations of asteroid detection systems and the need for improvement.

What is the significance of the European Space Agency's Risk List, and what does it contain?

The European Space Agency's Risk List is a compilation of the most dangerous asteroids and comets that could potentially collide with Earth in the near future. It includes details such as the impact date and time, the probability of collision, and the diameter of the objects to indicate their size.

What are the three strategies mentioned in the script for dealing with a large asteroid collision, and which one has been successfully tested?

The three strategies for dealing with a large asteroid collision are Kinetic methods, Slow Push and Pull methods, and Nuclear methods. The Kinetic Method has been successfully tested and involves sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid to change its orbit.

Outlines

00:00

🌌 Asteroid Apophis: Earth's Close Call and the Reality of Cosmic Threats

The script begins with a dramatic introduction to the asteroid Apophis, which is set to pass by Earth in 2029, causing alarm due to its massive size and potential for devastation. It discusses the asteroid's comparison to the Hiroshima bomb in terms of energy release and the possibility of tsunamis and city destruction. The script then dispels myths about a 2038 asteroid collision, explaining that the 72% chance is part of a hypothetical NASA exercise rather than a real threat. It also touches on the concept of Near Earth Objects (NEOs), the difference between asteroids, comets, meteors, and meteorites, and the importance of distinguishing between reliable and sensational news sources.

05:02

📰 Debunking Asteroid Impact Hype and Understanding the Real Risks

This paragraph delves into the misinformation spread by sensationalist media, contrasting it with reliable news sources. It clarifies that the Times of India's article, which initially seemed to suggest an imminent asteroid threat, was actually about a hypothetical scenario created by NASA to assess global preparedness. The script emphasizes the importance of accurate reporting and the role of data science in predicting asteroid paths. It also provides reassurance that the Apophis asteroid, despite its size, has a zero percent chance of colliding with Earth according to NASA's findings.

10:04

🛰️ Earth's Asteroid Detection Systems and the Importance of Preparedness

The script outlines the various asteroid detection projects such as LINEAR, CSS, PAN STARRS, and ATLAS, highlighting their contributions to the early identification of potential threats. It underscores the precision of these systems, with examples like the CSS's prediction of an asteroid impact in North Sudan. The paragraph also touches on the potential risks posed by undetected small meteors, like the Chelyabinsk meteor incident, and the necessity of a robust civil defense component to handle such events.

15:06

🚀 Strategies for Asteroid Deflection and the Future of Planetary Defense

This section discusses the strategies that could be employed to deflect or destroy an asteroid on a collision course with Earth. It describes the kinetic impact method, which was successfully tested by NASA's DART mission, and the slow push and pull method using solar energy. The nuclear method is also mentioned, though it is considered less feasible due to legal and practical concerns. The script provides insights from a recent mock test conducted by NASA, which indicated a high level of confidence in our readiness to handle an asteroid threat.

20:07

🛡️ The State of Earth's Defense and the Role of Future Technologies

The final paragraph provides a summary of the current state of Earth's defense against asteroid threats, mentioning the upcoming launch of NASA's Near Earth Object Surveyor telescope. It emphasizes that there are no significant threats detected within the next 100 years and that our detection and deflection technologies are continually improving. The script concludes by encouraging viewers to disregard fake news and to explore more space-related topics through the provided video playlist and resources.

Keywords

💡Apophis

Apophis is an actual asteroid with a diameter of more than 1000 feet that will pass by Earth at a close proximity on 13th April, 2029. Named after the Egyptian chaos god, it was initially considered a significant threat due to its size and the initial probability of collision. However, further observations have shown that it has a 0% chance of colliding with Earth, debunking the initial fears. The term is central to the video's theme of asteroid threats and planetary defense.

💡Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

NEOs refer to asteroids, comets, meteors, meteorites, and meteoroids that pass close to the Earth. They are the focus of the video as potential hazards to our planet. The script discusses the different types of NEOs and their potential dangers, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and understanding these objects to prepare for any possible impacts.

💡Asteroid Belt

The Asteroid Belt is a region in our solar system located between Mars and Jupiter, housing millions of asteroids. It is mentioned in the script to illustrate where most of the asteroids in our solar system are found and to contrast with the relative scarcity of asteroids in space, debunking the common misconception that they are closely packed.

💡Comets

Comets are made of ice, rocks, and dust, sometimes referred to as 'Dirty Snowballs.' They are found in the Kuiper belt and are considered more dangerous than asteroids due to their speed and shorter warning time for potential collisions. The script uses comets to highlight the different types of NEOs and their relative risks.

💡Tsunami

A tsunami is a series of large ocean waves caused by an underwater disturbance, such as an asteroid impact. The script mentions tsunami waves of hundreds of meters that could result from an asteroid impact, illustrating the catastrophic potential of such an event.

💡Planetary Defence

Planetary Defence refers to the strategies and technologies used to protect Earth from potential asteroid or comet impacts. The script discusses NASA's planetary defense exercises and the hypothetical scenario of an asteroid impact in 2038, emphasizing the proactive measures taken by space agencies to prepare for such threats.

💡Data Science

Data Science is a field that uses scientific methods, processes, algorithms, and systems to extract knowledge and insights from data. In the context of the video, data science is credited with the ability to predict the paths of asteroids accurately, highlighting its importance in space exploration and planetary defense.

💡Risk List

The Risk List mentioned in the script is a compilation of asteroids and comets with the potential to collide with Earth, along with their impact dates, times, probabilities, and sizes. It serves as a tool for space agencies to monitor and assess the threats posed by NEOs.

💡Kinetic Method

The Kinetic Method is a strategy for planetary defense that involves sending a spacecraft to collide with an asteroid, thereby changing its orbit and preventing a potential impact with Earth. The script describes the successful testing of this method in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), demonstrating its effectiveness.

💡Nuclear Method

The Nuclear Method is a theoretical approach to planetary defense that involves using nuclear bombs to destroy an asteroid or alter its course. The script discusses the method's potential use in extreme scenarios involving very large asteroids but also notes the legal, international, and geopolitical challenges associated with its use.

💡LINEAR

LINEAR, or Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research, is a detection project initiated by the US Air Force, NASA, and MIT to discover and track NEOs. The script highlights LINEAR's significant contribution to asteroid detection, with 65% of all discovered asteroids being found by this project.

Highlights

Asteroid Apophis, over 1000 feet in diameter, will pass by Earth in 2029, but poses no collision risk.

Apophis was initially considered a threat with a 2.7% chance of collision in 2029, but further observations have ruled out any risk.

The hypothetical 2038 asteroid collision scenario with a 72% chance is part of a NASA exercise, not a real threat.

Asteroids are categorized as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) when they approach Earth, and can include comets, meteors, meteorites, and meteoroids.

Comets are more dangerous than asteroids due to their higher speed and shorter warning time.

The asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter houses millions of asteroids, but they are far apart on average.

Asteroid 2023VD3 has a 0.25% chance of colliding with Earth in 2034, making it the top concern on the risk list.

Asteroid 1979XB, with a diameter of 400-900 meters, ranks second on the risk list despite its negligible collision probability.

Asteroid 2008JL3 is third on the risk list with a 0.01% chance of impact in 2027.

Detection systems like LINEAR, CSS, PAN STARRS, and ATLAS are crucial for early asteroid detection.

The Chelyabinsk meteor in 2013 was an undetected 20-meter-wide event that caused damage but no fatalities.

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) successfully demonstrated the kinetic impact method to alter an asteroid's orbit.

China's National Space Agency plans a similar kinetic impact test with a 30-meter-wide asteroid in 2025.

Slow Push and Pull methods use solar energy to gradually change an asteroid's orbit.

The Nuclear Method of destroying an asteroid with a spacecraft is considered but has significant drawbacks.

NASA's mock test and expert meetings indicate confidence in dealing with potential asteroid threats.

Upcoming projects like the Near Earth Object Surveyor will enhance our detection capabilities.

Data Science plays a vital role in accurately predicting asteroid paths and has applications in various fields.

Scaler Academy offers upskilling in data science and other tech fields, with successful career outcomes for learners.

Transcripts

Hello friends!

13th April, 2029.

A huge asteroid Apophis, more than 1000 feet in diameter,

will pass by the Earth at a close prproximity.

If it hits the earth,

it will bring about such a devastation

which has never been seen before in human history.

Compared to the bomb dropped on Hiroshima

this will release 1 million times more energy.

There will be tsunami waves of hundreds of metres.

And entire cities will be wiped out.

But not only that,

on 12th July, 2038,

another asteroid can collide with the earth.

And look at this post.

There is a 72% chance of this collision.

NASA has already issued an alert

and has started its planetary defence exercises.

And look at this post,

it's only a few weeks old.

After NASA Chief,

ISRO's Chief has now issued a warning

that we can all go extinct.

Oh, my God!

An earth-destroying asteroid is speeding towards us.

ISRO Chief says that

migrating to Mars is an option

and all global space agencies are working on it.

How much truth is there in such news?

Which asteroids pose the most danger for Earth?

And what is NASA's plan?

Let's understand all these things in depth in this video.

Asteroids are also called Planetoids.

Because they are like small planets.

They are basically some huge pieces of rocks

that are orbiting in space.

Their diametre can be as small as 10-20 metres

or as big as 100-200 kilometres.

The smallest existing asteroid we've discovered

is only 2 metres wide

and the biggest is called Ceres

with a diameter of 940 kilometres.

Most of the asteroids in our solar system

are found in the Asteroid Belt between Mars and Jupiter.

It houses millions of asteroids.

The drawing of this asteroid belt in our textbooks

looks like this.

This might seem like

these asteroids are so close to each other,

but in reality, the average distance between any two asteroids

is more than 1 million kilometer.

But sometimes these asteroids move away from this belt

and get quite close to the earth.

In such cases, these are known as Near Earth Objects.

In short, they are called NEOs.

NEOs are not just asteroids,

they can be Comets, Meteors,

Meteorites, and Meteoroids.

You may ask what is the difference between them?

Basically, all of them are just pieces of rocks

moving through space.

But the way we define them,

is different for each.

Like asteroids are made of rocks and metals.

Comets are made of ice, rocks, and dust.

They are known as Dirty Snowballs too.

Asteroids are found between Mars and Jupiter in the asteroid belt.

Comets are found in the Kuiper belt.

This belt lies before Neptune,

quite far from our Sun.

When comets move in space,

they seem to have a tail

which asteroids don't.

Typically, comets can be large too,

with a diametre of 1-10 km.

And whenever a comet passes by earth,

it can be easily seen with the naked eye.

But to see asteroids,

telescopes are needed in most cases.

In terms of danger posed to us,

a comet is far more dangerous than an asteroid.

Because first, a comet travels at twice the speed of an asteroid.

And second, the warning time is shorter.

A comet may suddenly appear and collide with the Earth,

and unfortunately, we won't find out about it for a long time.

This was shown in the film, Don't Look Up.

In this film, we see how

there was a 6-month warning time

of a comet colliding with the Earth.

And how the government and space agencies react to it.

A Meteoroid is a small piece of an asteroid or comet.

When a meteoroid gets closer to the earth

and enters our atmosphere,

we call it a Meteor.

When that happens, it burns very quickly

and we see a streak of light.

It is also known as a shooting star

and some of you might have seen it yourself.

When this happens in large numbers,

it is called a Meteor Shower.

And if a piece of meteor,

travels through our atmosphere and falls on the earth,

it is called a Meteorite.

That's the only difference.

However, for us, the important thing is

are the NEOs.

The asteroids and comets

that pass by the earth.

Those posing considerable risk of

of crashing on the earth.

And bringing about the end of our world.

This is a justified concern

because this happened 66 million years ago

to the dinosaurs.

If they can go extinct,

so can we.

But before measuring this danger

and moving ahead,

I would like to say one thing.

If you get your news from such accounts on Instagram and Facebook,

it would be better to stop following news.

Because this news about the 2038 Asteroid Strike

is completely fake.

If you want to follow some pages on Instagram for news,

then there are many options like The Hindu,

Indian Express, Scroll.in, The Wire, News Laundry.

Or even our mainstream news websites,

even though the standard of Indian media isn't quite up there,

but at least they won't spread this level of lies there.

Because see,

Times of India has also written an article on this.

The headline states that

"NASA warns that a planet-sized asteroid

has a 72% chance of impacting the earth."

This headline is wrong.

It is a click-bait headline.

But if you read the first line of the article by scrolling further,

they have clarified this headline.

"NASA recently conducted a hypothetical exercise

to assess the planet's preparedness against an asteroid impact."

Actually, this 72% chance

is not a finding or result.

This is a hypothetical imaginary scenario

which was created by NASA.

They conducted an exercise,

that if today we found out

that an asteroid is going to collide with earth in July 2038,

what can we do?

This was a mock test in which

more than 100 experts took part from different organisations.

NASA, European Space Agency, UK Space Agency,

United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs.

Everyone discussed this hypothetical situation

if an asteroid were to collide with the earth 14 years from now,

what should be the exact steps to stop it.

On 20th June, NASA released this report in public

which contain some interesting points.

We will talk about them in the video later,

but before that I would like to tell you,

the date of 2029,

which I talked about at the beginning of the video,

that date is not hypothetical.

Apophis asteroid with a diametre of more than 1,000 feet

does really exist.

And on 13th April 2029, this asteroid

will pass by very close to the earth.

Only 30,000 km away.

Many geostationary satellites

are farther away than this.

NASA had released a video

showing the exact path

of this Apophis asteroid.

5 years later, the day this asteroid will pass by the earth

you won't need a telescope to see it.

You will be able to see it with your eyes at night.

So the question is,

what are the chances of this asteroid actually colliding with earth?

The answer is

Zero Percent.

This asteroid was discovered in 2004.

After which, there was quite an uproar all over the world.

Because according to the initial observations,

they claimed that there was a 2.7% chance

of this asteroid colliding with the earth in 2029.

Even though this 2.7% chance wasn't very significant.

It basically meant that there's a 97% chance

that it won't collide.

But when the consequences can be so devastating,

even a 2% chance can be terrifying.

That's why in those years, this asteroid

was called the City Killer, the most dangerous asteroid.

This was the origin of its name Apophis.

In Egyptian mythology, Apophis

is a giant snake

which destroys everything.

It is also known as the God of Chaos.

But the good news is that

after further observations of this asteroid by the scientists,

they found that in reality,

it has a 0% chance of colliding with the Earth.

For a few years scientists thought that

though it won't collide in 2029,

when it'd come closer to Earth the next time,

it might be dangerous.

Like in 2036 or 2068.

Because when it would pass by Earth in 2029,

it would pass through a Keyhole Area.

In space, those places are said to be Keyholes

that is so close to the Earth,

where a passing asteroid is affected by Earth's gravitational force.

When the asteroid comes close to Earth in 2029,

it will pass through a Keyhole region,

which will change its orbit.

Due to Earth's gravity,

the asteroid's orbit will change,

which will increase the risk in 2036.

Scientists were afraid of this at one time,

but today, this threat has been debunked.

NASA has confidently stated that

in the next 100 years,

the asteroid will not collide with the Earth.

This is why, it has been removed from the risk list of Near-Earth Objects.

You might be surprised at this.

To know that there is a risk list.

Of course, there is.

Space agencies around the world

have made a Risk List

of the most dangerous asteroids in the near future.

For example, on the European Space Agency's website,

look at this Risk List.

The possible collisions of these asteroids and comets.

The Impact Date and Time are mentioned.

The probability of their collision.

Look at this IP max section.

This mentions the maximum probability.

And this section at the back,

mentions the diameter

to show how big the asteroid or comet is.

It was only because of Data Science

that we can predict the paths of the asteroids so accurately.

And not only in space exploration,

Data Science is used in many fields nowadays.

Automobile, Finance,

Space Exploration, Media, as well as Healthcare.

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Now, let's get back to our topic and

take a closer look at the top three objects in this risk list.

At #1 is the 2023VD3 asteroid.

The 2023 in the name

tell us that this asteroid was discovered in 2023.

This asteroid is quite small in size.

It is only 11 to 24 metres wide.

It might collide with earth on 8th November 2034.

And the probability of collision is

1 in 387.

That is, in percentage,

it has a 0.25% chance of colliding.

This is a substantial chance actually.

That is why it is placed at the top of the list.

But because of its smaller size,

it is not very dangerous.

The chances are that even if it collides with earth,

it will fall into a sea or ocean

or somewhere with few people.

It won't cause much damage.

In 2013, there was a similar incident

when in Chelyabinsk, Russia,

the Chelyabinsk meteor blasted above the city.

"It came out of nowhere

a bright speck in the sky

seen streaking across the horizon.

Followed by an almost apocalyptic scene.

A blinding flash of light

and then, all hell broke loose."

The diameter of the meteor was about 20 metres

and a powerful shockwave was released.

Some buildings were damaged,

some people were injured

but thankfully, no lives were lost.

"Nearly 1,500 people were injured.

Most of them suffered cuts from shattered windows."

At #2 on the risk list is

the 1979XB asteroid.

It is quite big.

Its diameter is around 400-900 metres.

Potentially, it will collide with earth on 12th December 2056

and the probability of the collision is

1 in 4.27 million.

That is 0.00002%.

The chance of this collision is almost negligible,

but it is still ranked #2 on the risk list

because of its size.

We cannot afford this low chance.

At #3 is asteroid 2008JL3.

With an estimated diameter of 23-50 metres.

And the potential impact date as 1st May 2027.

And the probability of impact at 1 in 6,711.

That is a 0.01% chance of collision.

As you can see, these scientists working in these space agencies

are doing a great job.

Because they don't want to risk Earth's future due to these small risks.

The only problem is that

these are the asteroids that we have discovered so far.

They may discover more asteroids in the future.

But Comets don't have such a proper calculated trajectory.

That is, we won't get a big warning window about comets.

Tomorrow, we may discover a new comet

that may collide with the Earth

and for that

we will have only 6-7 years to prepare.

The detection systems on Earth,

work well most of the time,

but sometimes they might not.

I would like to tell you about 4 most popular detection projects.

The first is LINEAR,

Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research.

It was started in 1996

by the US Air Force, NASA, and MIT,

in a joint collaboration.

Two 1-metre long telescopes

and a 0.5-metre telescope is used

to discover more than 10,000 objects every year.

Today, out of all the asteroids that are being discovered,

65% of them

are being discovered by this project.

The second is CSS,

Catalina Sky Survey.

Established by the University of Arizona in 1998,

it uses two big telescopes.

Its measurements are so precise that

in 2008 it found an asteroid

which was only 4 metres in diameter.

And it had accurately predicted

the exact time and day

when this asteroid will fall on the earth

and the exact location.

19 hours after its prediction

this asteroid fell in the desert of North Sudan

the same place it had predicted.

The third is PAN STARRS

Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System.

It is located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean in Hawaii

and it uses the world's largest digital cameras

to find asteroids.

The images captured by this largest camera

are of 1.4 billion pixels.

And the fourth is ATLAS

Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System.

It is also located in Hawaii.

And scientists have created it as a final warning of sorts.

In case all the other systems are unable to detect an asteroid,

if an asteroid goes undetected by mistake,

then this system will give us a last minute warning

of a possible asteroid impact.

Every night this system scans the sky twice

to detect any danger.

So overall, Earth's defence system

is quite brilliant and strong.

But sometimes there might be some errors.

Like, sometimes small meteors

remain undetected as they get closer

and then collide with the earth.

Like the Chelyabinsk meteor in February 2013.

This 20-metre wide meteor

was not detected by any system on time.

That's why for such scenarios,

a Civil Defence Component becomes crucial.

NASA has talked about this

on Page 12 of their mock test report.

If a small asteroid or meteor is about to crash somewhere

International coordination is required at the right time,

as well as the activation of the Disaster Management plans.

But what will happen if a large asteroid is about to collide?

There are three strategies to deal with it.

First are the Kinetic methods,

second are the Slow Push and Pull methods

and the third are the Nuclear methods.

The first of these three,

the Kinetic Method is the only one

that has been successfully tested in real life.

In this, we send a spacecraft

that collides with the asteroid

and changes its orbit.

The asteroid moves in a new orbit.

This is a simple and effective method.

Its practical experiment was conducted two years ago

in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART).

On 26th September, 2022,

a 170-metre-wide Dimorphous asteroid

was in space, far away from Earth

and NASA launched a spacecraft to collide with it.

"NASA's first planetary defence test to

strategically crash into an asteroid..."

This asteroid didn't pose any danger to us.

It was just an experiment to see whether

doing this really changes the orbit of the asteroid or not.

You can watch the video of this collision on the screen.

After that, when NASA looked at the result,

the asteroid's orbit had actually changed.

The same experiment is going to be

conducted by China's National Space Agency next year.

In 2025, they will have their spacecraft collide with a 30-metre-wide asteroid,

and try to change its path.

The second method is Slow Push and Pull.

In this, we change the asteroid's orbit gradually.

Solar energy can be used for this.

If a spacecraft is sent near the asteroid

it can concentrate the sun's rays on the asteroid

to vaporise a part of the asteroid,

this reaction will release some amount of gas,

which will cause a small thrust on the asteroid.

And gradually, the asteroid will change its orbit.

This happens naturally on asteroids

when an asteroid passes near the sun.

But if it is done by sending spacecraft,

scientists' only concerns is

before the rocks on the asteroid are vaporised,

these rocks should not interfere with the spacecraft's optical system.

Thirdly, we have the Nuclear Method.

Literally, sending a spacecraft carrying nuclear b0mbs

to destroy the asteroid.

It sounds very filmy but realistically,

it may hardly ever be used.

There are two reasons behind this.

First, deploying a nuclear b0mb in space

can lead to many legal, international, and geopolitical problems.

And second, when an asteroid is destroyed,

its pieces will be blown up all around

and we can't control the orbit of those pieces.

A piece may even collied with earth

after the asteroid is destroyed.

But this method is still under consideration

because if an asteroid is large beyond an extent,

like if the asteroid's size is more than 10 km,

the same size that caused the extinction of dinosaurs.

Then the other methods may not work as well

because of the extreme size of the asteroid.

In NASA's mock test from a few months ago

they discussed these points.

"Exactly how to deal with an asteroid

which is going to collide with the Earth after 14 years

with a chance of collision at 72%."

The good news is that

81% of the participants participating in this mock experiment

believed that we are ready to deal with such a threat.

There are only a few gaps

that scientists have raised

regarding such scenarios.

For example, one gap mentioned was that

we have tested only one method till now,

the Kinetic Method.

We should test this Kinetic Method more times in the future

so that we can be sure that

it will work as needed.

This was the 5th meeting to discuss a hypothetical asteroid strike.

Before this, in 2013, 2014, 2016, and then in 2022,

similar meetings were held.

It was named Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.

And in John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,

around 100 experts came together.

So, in conclusion, friends,

there is nothing to worry about.

First of all, in the next 100 years

there are no big asteroids

that have even a 0.01% chance of colliding with the Earth.

Secondly, our Earth's defence systems

are becoming more advanced with time.

In the year 2028, NASA is planning to launch a space telescope

named Near Earth Object Surveyor.

It will be stationed outside Earth,

to detect such asteroids

so our detection systems will improve further.

And thirdly, even if we find an asteroid

that can collide with the earth,

we already have adequate systems to stop it.

So stop believing in such fake news

and if you are interested in space-related topics,

I have made many other videos on space.

There is an entire playlist,

you can click here to watch them.

Like this video on Wormholes.

How can interstellar time travel be possible through wormholes?

Click here to watch it.

The link to Scaler's Live Masterclass

is in the description below.

Thank you very much!