Bitcoin (BTC): Get Ready for a New Trading Week! Bullish and Bearish Elliott Wave Analysis Scenarios

Summary

In this Bitcoin update video, the host discusses intraday market movements, focusing on potential bullish scenarios and resistance levels. They analyze wave counts on smaller time frames, considering whether the current dip is part of a larger bullish trend or signaling a more bearish turn. Key support and resistance levels are identified, with 72k and 75k as critical breakout points, while a break below 56.7k could shift the outlook to bearish. The video emphasizes the importance of monitoring price action for potential entry points in an uptrend.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker provides an intraday update on Bitcoin's price movements, noting a small reaction to resistance but not considering it a sell-off.
• 📊 The script discusses two bullish scenarios for Bitcoin's wave count, questioning whether the market is in the third wave of an upward trend or still in Wave 1.
• 🗓️ A substantial low was identified on the 5th of July, which sets the base for the bullish thesis, suggesting a five-wave move up.
• 🔢 The Fibonacci (FIB) levels are mentioned, with 72k and 72830 as potential resistance levels, indicating price targets for Bitcoin's upward movement.
• 🔄 The speaker acknowledges a possible extension of the current wave, suggesting Bitcoin could reach higher prices before a potential pullback.
• 📉 The support zone for a potential Wave 2 pullback is identified as 56737 to 63070, indicating where the price could find support if it dips.
• 📌 The importance of the last swing low at 66800 is highlighted as an early indication that Wave 1 might be complete.
• 🚫 Two confirmation levels for the completion of Wave 1 are given: a break below 66800 and below the upper support region of 64831.
• 🟢 The speaker considers a break above 72200 and 74800 as confirmation of the third wave unfolding, indicating a stronger bullish trend.
• 🔄 The script mentions bearish divergences on smaller time frames, such as the 1-hour chart, which could signal potential weakness in the short term.
• 📍 Key resistance and support levels are identified, with the next breakout point being the last swing high at 70k, followed by 72k and the FIB level at 72.2k.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video update?

The main topic of the video update is the intraday analysis of Bitcoin's price movement and potential scenarios for its future trend.

What does the speaker suggest about the current reaction to the resistance line?

The speaker suggests that the current reaction to the resistance line is not a sell-off but could be a dip that might turn into something more bearish.

What are the two scenarios the speaker is watching for in the Bitcoin price structure?

The two scenarios are whether Bitcoin is already in the third wave to the upside or still stuck in Wave 1, with both scenarios being bullish but differing in their wave counts.

What is the significance of the date mentioned, July 5th, in the script?

July 5th is significant as it marks the potential bottoming of Wave 4, setting the base case for the wave count analysis.

What is the potential next major Fibonacci (FIB) level mentioned in the script?

The potential next major Fibonacci level mentioned is 72,830, which could be a resistance point for Bitcoin's price movement.

What does the speaker mean by 'running flat' in the context of wave analysis?

In the context of wave analysis, 'running flat' refers to a corrective wave pattern where the price does not move significantly, potentially setting up for another high.

What is the '61.8 extension' mentioned in the script and its significance?

The '61.8 extension' is a Fibonacci extension level used in technical analysis to predict potential price movements. It signifies a resistance level at 72,200, which is important for determining the continuation of the bullish trend.

What is the support zone for Wave 2 mentioned in the script?

The support zone for Wave 2 is between 56,737 and 63,027, indicating the price levels where the market might find support if Wave 1 has completed.

What are the earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete according to the speaker?

The earliest indications that Wave 5 of Wave 1 is complete would be a break below the last swing low formed at 66,800, providing an initial signal of a potential trend reversal.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential opportunities in the market?

The speaker suggests that pullbacks in uptrends can offer great opportunities, and if the price dips into the yellow box, it would be a chance to enter the market with a bullish perspective.

What would change the speaker's perspective to a more bearish outlook?

The speaker's perspective would change to a more bearish outlook if there is a break below 56,737, indicating a significant shift in the market trend.