COULD KAMALA BEAT TRUMP?

Summary

The transcript discusses the potential implications of an open Democratic nomination process if Joe Biden were to drop out. It highlights the importance of a swift replacement and the challenges Kamala Harris might face, given her current approval ratings and the need for strong messaging. The conversation also touches on the perceived lack of unity within the Democratic party and the risks of an open convention, suggesting that a clear and decisive strategy is crucial for maintaining voter confidence and avoiding chaos.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nancy Pelosi is considering an open nomination process if Biden drops out, which some believe could lead to chaos and lack of unity within the Democratic party.
• 😳 AOC's comments on the Democratic party's lack of a clear vision for a swift replacement have been validated, highlighting potential internal conflicts.
• 😵‍♀️ Some California House Democrats are against a rushed process to replace the president, fearing it could be seen as a coronation for Kamala Harris.
• 😨 The idea of an open convention is seen as a bad move by some, as it could lead to disorder and a lack of confidence in the Democratic party's ability to organize effectively.
• 😡 There is a concern that the Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' could be damaged if they fail to present a unified front during the convention.
• 😌 The Democratic party's main advantage over the Republicans is perceived stability and order, which could be compromised by an open convention.
• 😮 Kamala Harris's potential as a replacement candidate is debated, with some arguing she could be a fresh face but others questioning her charisma and current approval ratings.
• 😬 The importance of messaging and how Harris is presented as a candidate is emphasized, as it could significantly impact voter perception and support.
• 😓 There is a suggestion that other Democrats, such as Gretchen Whitmer or JB Pritzker, might be better candidates to replace Biden, based on their track records and popularity.
• 😡 Republicans are reportedly strategizing to keep Biden on the ballot in swing states, indicating they believe he is more beatable than other potential Democratic candidates.

Q & A

What does Nancy Pelosi's support for an open nomination process imply if Biden drops out?

Nancy Pelosi's support for an open nomination process if Biden drops out suggests that she is open to a broader discussion and selection process for a new Democratic candidate, which could lead to a more democratic and inclusive approach within the party.

Why does the speaker believe an open convention is a bad idea?

The speaker believes an open convention is a bad idea because it would lead to chaos and disorder, potentially damaging the Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' and undermining confidence in their ability to manage a smooth transition of leadership.

What is the speaker's view on Kamala Harris as a potential replacement for Biden?

The speaker is skeptical about Kamala Harris as a potential replacement, citing her lack of a solid team and effective messaging, and suggesting that her appointment could lead to further chaos and a lack of clear vision for the party.

What does the speaker think about the importance of messaging in the context of a potential new Democratic candidate?

The speaker emphasizes the crucial role of messaging, stating that if Kamala Harris or any other candidate is appointed, they must play their part effectively and present a dynamic and fresh face to the public to gain support and investment.

How does the speaker view the current situation with Biden's potential stepping down and the Democratic party's response?

The speaker criticizes the Democratic party's handling of the situation, suggesting that their lack of a clear and swift replacement plan reflects poorly on their ability to manage and could lead to a loss of confidence among voters.

What is the speaker's opinion on the Democratic party's advantage over the Republicans?

The speaker believes that the Democratic party's main advantage is being perceived as the 'adults in the room,' in contrast to the chaotic and divided Republicans, and that this perception is crucial for maintaining voter support.

What does the speaker suggest about the potential impact of an open convention on the Democratic party's image?

The speaker suggests that an open convention would expose the Democratic party's internal divisions and lack of consensus, which could damage their image and make them appear as chaotic as the Republicans.

How does the speaker evaluate the importance of a swift replacement for Biden?

The speaker argues that a swift replacement is crucial to maintain momentum and confidence in the Democratic party, and to avoid the chaos and disorder that an open convention could bring.

What are the speaker's thoughts on the potential benefits of having more attention on an open convention?

The speaker argues that the potential benefits of increased attention do not outweigh the risks of chaos and disorder that an open convention would bring, and that a clear and decisive approach is preferable.

What alternative candidates does the speaker suggest as better replacements for Biden?

The speaker suggests that Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker might be better alternatives to Kamala Harris, as they have proven track records and are popular, which could help capture the support of key demographics.

Outlines

00:00

📢 Pelosi's Open Convention Support Sparks Debate

The speaker discusses the implications of Nancy Pelosi's potential support for an open nomination process if Biden were to withdraw, highlighting AOC's comments on the Democratic party's lack of unity and clear vision for a successor. The analysis suggests that Pelosi's stance could lead to chaos and disorder within the party, undermining the public's confidence in Democrats as the 'adults in the room.' The script also touches on the importance of a swift and decisive replacement for Biden to maintain momentum and public trust.

05:01

🔄 The Risks of an Immediate Biden Replacement

This paragraph delves into the potential consequences of a sudden replacement of Biden, emphasizing the importance of messaging and public perception. It argues that Kamala Harris, as a potential successor, needs to be carefully positioned to avoid alienating certain demographics. The speaker also addresses the loyalty of voters to Biden and the potential for an open convention to exacerbate existing divisions within the Democratic party, ultimately benefiting Trump.

10:02

🕊️ The Importance of Unity and Messaging in Democratic Succession

The speaker stresses the importance of a coherent narrative and unity within the Democratic party when considering a successor to Biden. They argue against an open convention, suggesting it would reveal internal conflicts and undermine the party's image as the more stable alternative to the Republicans. The paragraph also explores alternative candidates to Harris, such as Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker, and the significance of Biden's legacy in the decision-making process.

15:03

📊 Public Opinion and the Dynamics of the Presidential Race

This section examines public opinion polls and the potential impact of Biden's age and perceived cognitive decline on the election. It discusses the challenges Kamala Harris might face in a presidential run, including her charisma and approval ratings, while also considering the Republicans' strategy to keep Biden on the ballot. The speaker suggests that a swift and strategic replacement of Biden could improve the Democrats' chances in the election.

Keywords

💡Open Nomination Process

An open nomination process refers to a situation where multiple candidates compete for a party's nomination without a predetermined frontrunner. In the context of the video, it is suggested that if Joe Biden were to drop out, Nancy Pelosi would support such a process, which is seen as potentially chaotic and divisive within the Democratic party, as it lacks a clear consensus on a replacement candidate.

💡Unity

Unity in this script refers to the collective agreement or single-mindedness within a group, particularly within the Democratic party regarding their presidential candidate. The lack of unity is highlighted as a concern, as it is suggested that the party does not have a clear vision for a swift replacement if Biden were to step down, which could lead to internal strife and public perception of disarray.

💡Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is mentioned as a potential replacement for Joe Biden should he drop out. The script discusses her as a controversial figure within the party, with some suggesting she might not be the best candidate due to her current approval ratings and past performance. The video also speculates on the importance of her messaging and public image in the context of a potential nomination.

💡Democratic Operative

The term 'Democratic Operative' is used to describe a well-known individual within the Democratic party who is involved in its political strategy and operations. In the script, an anonymous quote from such an operative is mentioned, expressing frustration and a desire for the current situation to be resolved, using the phrase 'coconut pilled,' which is a reference to an online meme indicating a naive or uninformed perspective.

💡Chaos

Chaos in this context denotes a state of disorder and confusion, particularly within the Democratic party's nomination process. The script suggests that an open convention would lead to chaos, as it would indicate a lack of preparedness and a failure to present a united front to the public, which could damage the party's image and electoral prospects.

💡Messaging

Messaging in the script refers to the communication strategy and the way a political party or candidate presents their platform and ideas to the public. It is emphasized that if Kamala Harris were to become the nominee, the messaging around her campaign would be crucial in shaping public perception and garnering support.

💡Confidence

Confidence in this script is related to the trust and assurance that the Democratic party has in its leadership and candidates. The lack of confidence is portrayed as a significant issue, as it could lead to a perception that the party is not capable of effectively governing or making decisive choices.

💡Republicans

The Republicans are mentioned as the opposing political party in the United States. The script contrasts the Democratic party's perceived chaos with the Republicans' own internal divisions and the public's concerns about their leadership, suggesting that the Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' is a key advantage over their rivals.

💡Voter Public

The voter public refers to the collective body of citizens who are eligible to vote in elections. The script discusses the importance of the Democratic party's ability to appeal to this group and the potential negative impact on voter confidence if the party appears disorganized or unable to present a clear candidate.

💡Approval Rating

An approval rating is a measure of the public's positive view of a political figure or party. In the script, Kamala Harris's approval rating is discussed as a factor that could influence her viability as a presidential candidate, with the suggestion that her ratings may not accurately reflect her potential as a presidential nominee due to her current association with the Biden administration.

💡Vice Presidential Pick

The vice presidential pick refers to the selection of a candidate's running mate in a presidential election. The script suggests that this choice could be particularly important in the context of a potential Kamala Harris candidacy, as it might influence public perception and the campaign's success.

Highlights

Pelosi's support for an open nomination process if Biden drops out is seen as a significant development.

AOC's comments on the lack of unity behind a potential candidate like Kamala Harris are confirmed as correct.

Concerns are raised about the Democratic party's inability to present a clear vision for a swift replacement if Biden steps down.

The idea of an open convention is considered by some to be a devastating and chaotic proposition.

Some California House Democrats oppose the idea of a rushed replacement process that could be perceived as a Kamala Harris coronation.

An anonymous Democratic operative expresses frustration with the current situation, referencing a 'coconut tree' meme.

The importance of having a solid team and messaging around Kamala Harris for her potential run is discussed.

The potential benefits of an open convention are weighed against the risks of chaos and disorder.

The Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' is highlighted as a key advantage over the Republicans.

The potential for an open convention to reveal internal divisions and undermine confidence in the Democratic party is noted.

The strategy of a swift replacement for Biden to maintain momentum and continuity is suggested.

The role of messaging in shaping public perception of a new candidate, such as Kamala Harris, is emphasized.

The importance of confidence in the Democratic party's ability to manage a transition is discussed in relation to voter trust.

The potential for an open convention to create a panic environment and show a lack of succession planning is highlighted.

The impact of an open convention on different voter demographics, such as Hispanics and young people, is considered.

The argument is made that an open convention could damage the Democratic party's narrative of stability and confidence.

Alternative candidates to Kamala Harris, such as Gretchen Whitmer and J.B. Pritzker, are suggested as potentially stronger replacements.

The potential for an open convention to be used as a tool to disrupt the Democratic party's unity and strategy is noted.

The timing and logistics of a potential candidate replacement are discussed in relation to election deadlines.

The current approval ratings of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are compared, with implications for a potential ticket change.

The Republican party's strategy to potentially use legal means to keep Biden on the ballot is mentioned.

The importance of charisma in a candidate is debated, with references to both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Transcripts

Pelosi voice support for an open

nomination process if Biden drops out

that is the reason why I'm going to be

talking about what AOC said today

because turns out she is right on that

she was right about the chaotic lack of

unity behind like KLA Harris I mean I

said she's either lying which I don't

think she is or she's being brutally

honest and like breaking caucus and like

revealing something that's pretty

significant and it turns out she is

correct on this this is the one thing

that I've said is like a a worse option

than just going with Brandon there's

reporting right now on Nancy Pelosi

saying that she'd be up for an open

contest uh an open convention and I

think that is genuinely a devastating

idea I don't think it's a good idea at

all Pelosi voicing support for an open

nomination process Biden drops out it

quite literally immediately proves what

AOC was saying about the about the

Democrats not having like a cleare eyed

Vision on a swift replacement um some

California House Democrats don't want

the process to replace the president on

the tiet get to seem like a KLA Harris

coronation and I think that that is a

genuinely bad idea I think that that

spells chaos it spells disorder there is

no world in which the the entire

American voter public that is like

interested in voting turns around and

says like yeah I like that the

Democratic party which are supposed to

be the adults in the room cannot get

their ducks in a row uh before the

goddamn convention this CNN article

quotes you as a democratic operative f

it I'm coconut pilled I just want this

to stop said one well-known Democratic

operative referring to an online meme

that is taken off from an old video you

think you just fell out of a coconut

tree you think you just fell out of a

coconut

tree you exist in the

context of all in which you live and

what came before you no chat that's not

me they did not ask me this is an

anonymous quote from a Dem operative

that is well known why would they put me

down as a demn operative why would I

give an anonymous quote your confidence

in comma seems wild to be honest what

Americans want is a new ticket they want

someone they can be happy with and that

will never be Kamala comma is new kamla

is Young if kamla has a solid team

around her which she currently doesn't

with good messaging you absolutely could

make a decent job out of kamla Harris

she's 59 yeah guys we're talking about

the president she's 32 years younger

than the current person on the ticket or

not 32 sorry 22 you're right I feel like

you're radically overvaluing comma and

undervaluing the interest of chaos no

the benefits of having more attention

and more eyeballs on an open convention

do not outweigh the consequences of

having an an open convention if you guys

think this is chaos otic an open

convention where like everyone is

talking about oh my God the Democrats

finally got their wishes they finally

got Joe Biden out but now they can't

even [ __ ] have a consensus candidate

that is real chaos you have not seen

real chaos until you see what that looks

like in the media that plays itself out

as total disorder Full Tilt right now

there's like a little bit of will he

won't he situation there's a little bit

of interest but if they were to replace

the ticket immediately swiftly and then

start moving on and be like this is the

new this is the new uh party this is the

new modus operandi we're going to we're

going to take it to the next level we're

going to take Joe Biden's vision and

Legacy and we're going to take it across

the finish line and we're going to do

even more than we did before and um they

have solid messaging around it and there

is uh confidence that's very different

than like literally in the middle of

August at the end of August still not

having a candidate I I think that that

absolutely rips away the final like the

limited amount of confidence that people

might have that the Democratic party is

still like you know doing the right

thing and are the adults in the room

because you have to remember the

Democratic party being the adults in the

room is the number one benefit that they

have over the Republicans the

Republicans are always chaotic the

Republicans are basically violent in

their uh legislative agenda but also

beyond that they can't figure out which

direction they want to go in they some

of them try to be more moderate others

are openly being contentious and openly

being aggressive towards uh women's

bodily autonomy in ways that remind

people that they took away abortion

people look to the Democratic party as

the party that's going to defend

democracy people look to the Republican

party as the party whether good or bad

as the party that's going to do their

willing okay do their bidding do and and

follow through on their agenda no matter

how cha and undemocratic that agenda

might be absolute brain dead takes Biden

dropping out now is literally handing

Trump the election so dumb you just came

in here with zero analysis and just

vibes okay just came in here hot and was

like no you don't understand the 82y old

that everyone understands is is is brain

capacity is deteriorated is actually the

best possible person if they do a quick

swap out it won't work dude KLA Harris

also bring BRS back certain demographics

immediately into question like the

average American doesn't think as much

as you guys do about politics that's

something you have to remember I love

this chatter said the commies the

average genzer even is going to be like

oh yeah that's a younger person I'm

interested I'm invested that's why I say

what KLA Harris does if she is appointed

as the nominee is very important in

terms of messaging very very important

in terms of messaging because like when

people are locked in and they go oh this

is a new fresh face this is a more

vibrant candidate a more Dynamic

candidate then she has to play that part

then she has to play that role if she's

barred out like she's been goofing

around the entire time for the past four

years then then it's it's going to be

harder easier than Joe Biden but hard

nonetheless because every single person

that is polling for Biden right now in

every single poll that has been

conducted is going to vote for whoever

the [ __ ] the blue person is because

their motivations for voting for Biden

is not because they love Biden their

motivations for voting for Biden as

demonstrated by those exact same polls

is that they don't want Donald Trump

that ambition was alive and well in 2020

and it certainly is Alive and Well in

the 2024 election we know that we've

seen it every poll shows that reality no

matter who is at the top of that ticket

they have all of Biden's votes that they

will secure and plus some more on top of

that this is the calculation that I'm

making the calculation I'm making is

that there are no uh Biden or Busters in

the same way that there were Bernier

Busters right even though those were

marginal as well this is the part where

lib say you can't trust the polls I know

if you believe that why not have an open

convention oh I I've I've told you

already the reason why I don't think

it's open convention is a smart idea is

because then you actually do have some

people who are like well I'm loyalist

for Nome it's kind of like this twitch

streamers know not to pull which game to

play next and they just play it and they

say hey if you like it you watch if you

don't like it you don't why because if

you pull which game you want to play

next you will lose more people because

the people that really wanted you to

play one game will just out of anger not

watch the other game not everyone but a

lot of people will turn around and go oh

well I voted for this game and now

you're playing a different game and you

know what maybe I would have watched it

but I kind of don't want to watch that

game that you're playing now more

importantly than that an open convention

is specifically dangerous because it

shows that there is no consensus right

now Biden wants Confidence from his

party and his party is not showing him

confidence because they're seeing the

polls Biden is also relying on being

able to get to the convention true

democracy is always a bad idea no

democracy comes after in the general

election in this circumstance but even

then it's not a real democracy I'm just

telling you guys if you want my analysis

on this sometimes it's good to limit the

options and then go what do you want

anyway having said that the Democrats

already did that in the primaries they

stopped the primary process from

actually occurring by literally making

sure that no one else in the Democratic

party that had any viability ran against

Joe Biden because they didn't want Joe

Biden to go out and have to campaign in

the primary

they thought that he'd be weaker as a

consequence of that they thought that

people would hear him and go oh [ __ ]

he's old that's precisely the reason why

they already shut down the Democracy

part open convention is the best to

restore trust in the sections of the bo

voter base like Hispanics young people

industrial belt none of these people are

coming out because wow she's younger

than Joe Biden she's being thrown into a

defeat with no plan no the reason why I

think kamla Harris uh is like the Swift

replacement ticket is because it buys

time to ret triangulate the messaging

around her cuz is again time is of the

essence in this circumstance every

moment is going to count which is why

Biden should have dropped out far before

this moment I'm not saying commus

chances are an absolute lock I'm simply

stating that commus Chances Are Better

Than Biden's and given that this is a

close contest right now that's good

enough and with only upsides having said

that however if KLA Harris is the Swift

replacement and then she sucks then

obviously that that equation changes

open convention on the other hand will

create a panic environment will show

that the Democrats do not have a good uh

lineage like a good lineup a good

succession protocol you will have people

with their own dogs in the fight you

will have people that will at a moment

when you know the Democratic party needs

to be United you will have people

fighting against one another openly the

media will love the drama Jen disagrees

with you on this I know I think he'll

come around to this Jen has been right

about the obvious need to replace Joe

Biden because he's so old just like I

was right on that front Jen and I have a

disagreement on the open uh the open

primaries I think the O I mean not open

primaries open convention we have a

difference in opinion on that front but

it doesn't matter I I mean I'm telling

you what my position is on the matter

the Democratic party's number one

benefit over the Republican party right

now is that there're supposed to be the

adults in the room the Republicans are

uh divided the Republicans are chaotic

the Republicans spell disorder they're

led by a guy who wants to be a dictator

these are all of the concerns that

voters have about the Republican party

and that's why they say they're never

going to vote for Donald Trump if

Democrats basically cast that aside if

they just drop that then they have

nothing they just have abortion that's

it and as time passes less and less

people remember abortion and how

Republicans took that away I don't think

KLA Harris is the best possible

replacement you guys know who I think is

a better replacement than KLA Harris

I've said Gretchen Whitmer I think JB

pritzker would be fine I think there are

better Democrats out there they have

proven track records they're very

popular and they could Captivate the

Rust Belt having said that however Karis

already being on the ticket plays a

major role in this situation because

it's like it's a way to basically say

well Joe Biden this is the person that

you chose to replace you this is the

person that you said would be great as

president that's why you made her your

vice president it's a way to also save

the Democratic party's attitude because

then you can just simply say no no no

you don't understand Joe Biden always

knew that KLA Harris would be a

phenomenal president and that's why he

chose her as his VP this is a way to

continue the legacy of Joe Biden and the

legacy of the past four years and the

policies of the past four years now

obviously you and I might not agree with

that narrative like I mean what what

Legacy who gives a [ __ ] Joe Biden but

that makes a coherent replacement

narrative that you can set that you can

campaign on random person coming in at

the last second on the other hand makes

it seem like maybe Joe Biden's Legacy is

dog [ __ ] and then people go well why the

am I re why am I voting for the

Democrats again then because the past

four years they just suck then I guess

they don't even have any confidence in

their own Administration what the should

I have confidence in them electoral

politics brain ass my job is to do this

yes if you're not invested at all and if

you don't care and you're like oh it's

just a Bourgeois democracy who gives a

both parties represent the interest of

the wealthy I agree with you but like

this isn't for you then you know what I

mean this is not analysis that you

should be even interested in remotely

because it won't move the needle for you

anyway but what I'm doing here is for a

much larger audience of people who do

care about it who do care about

elections and of course I'm going to be

covering uh and I'm going to give give

you my announ analysis on the election

um during the election cycle like that

would be crazy if you don't disregard

polls why are you disregarding kamla's

terrible approval rating like Biden's

great question kamla Harris's approval

rating is VP approval rating if the P

approval rating is low the VP approval

rating is going to be low as well kamla

Harris at the top of the ticket is an

opportunity to completely change the

agenda or rather to refocus the

attention at the president itial

candidate kamla Harris and by the way

KLA Harris ran a dog [ __ ] primary

campaign if you guys remember the

American people want someone who is not

Donald Trump who can speak I think that

kamla Harris is not Donald Trump and she

can speak that's it and the pressure on

President Biden is growing for him to

step aside when does a decision need to

be made here wa technically not until

the delegates vote I mean Democrats

convention is August 19th in Chicago

many states have deadlines where names

have to be formally submitted for

ballots to be printed the days or even

the day after the convention that's the

other thing it's like if there is a if

there is a contested convention like it

can run beyond the dates of the

convention too if I'm not mistaken yeah

K is also more popular than uh Joe Biden

which is not saying much because Biden

is underwater comm's disapprovals at 50%

approvals at 38.6 Biden's disapproval is

at 56% approvals at 38.5 a youo Paul

conducted more Democrats than

Independence who lean Democrat prefer

Biden over Harris's the nominee 47 to 32

while 21% said they weren't sure margin

of error 4% yeah I'm telling you right

now this is the reason why I said the

replacement must be Swift and then KLA

Harris has to start campaigning like a

demon do I really think Harris can beat

Trump I think depending on how this

campaign restructures itself and how

messages going forward yes yes I do it's

there are so many factors at play who

her vice presidential pick is because

people will care about that this time

around perhaps a little bit more than

they normally would because this is a

this is a unique predicament all of the

polling being conducted right now is

being conducted as Biden is refusing to

step down is being conducted at a time

when kamla Harris's approval rating is

still tied to the president which is why

it's lower than it would be like if

she's the governor of her own State then

her approval rating would be

unimaginably high this does not reflect

the presidential ticket at all it's like

looking at Gretchen whitmer's approval

rating currently and then comparing it

to kamla Harris is like no that's her

own person that's being analyzed by

herself KLA Harris as the VP which is a

you know basically a a a secondary to

the actual uh Administration if the

administration is actually unpopular

then yeah obviously KLA Harris is going

to be seen as is unpopular as well

Republicans actually want Biden to be a

top the ticket uh because they think

they can actually beat him and that he's

the best person uh that they have the

opportunity to take down so you have two

efforts s sort of going on behind the

scenes number one you have this talk

about suing to keep Biden on the ballots

in these swing States Republicans think

that there are a number of local laws

and regulations they can sort of look to

point to to try to use the legal system

to keep Biden at top the ballot hm

that's weird perhaps that should be a

inclination for those who are still

holding out I I'm just I'm just saying

perhaps any

soundmind person who wants the Democrats

to win or at least the the Republicans

to not win would look at this motivation

from the Republican party and go hm

maybe the the candidate is not the best

possible candidate you're kicking Joe

Biden while he's bravely battling covid

yes true I am doing that I don't care

you said for 4 years car Harris has no

Charisma do you really think she even

has a chance against Trump wait Cara

Harris has no Charisma you're not wrong

having said that however you know who

else has no Charisma Joseph robinet

Biden who can't even speak clearly and

yet he's still in a 50/50 dead Lock so

yeah no I think I'm going to take my

chances with a person who can speak with

no Charisma versus the person who can't

speak with no charisma