WALL STREETS Most Volatile News Brings Huge Opportunities…

Summary

The video script discusses upcoming market volatility driven by CPI data and the start of earnings season, particularly for big banks. It highlights potential opportunities in stocks, commodities, and cryptos amidst inflation concerns. The presenter, Tom, shares insights on market trends, focusing on sectors like semiconductors and energy, and provides analysis on specific stocks like Nvidia and AMD, emphasizing positive gamma flows and potential market reactions post-CPI.

Takeaways

• 📈 The markets are currently experiencing a volatile period with significant events such as CPI release and the start of the earnings season, particularly with big banks.
• 📊 There is a general expectation for CPI to drop, with shelter and wages being key areas to watch, while used car prices are already falling significantly.
• 💹 The market has shown positive gamma flow, pushing higher, and there are opportunities in metals and commodities markets that could react strongly to inflation spikes.
• 🏦 JP Morgan's scenarios for CPI day indicate a bullish outlook for the market in most of their projections.
• 📊 Goldman Sachs expects an overall drop in CPI, which is a consensus among many, with shelter costs still ticking up despite the general decline.
• 📉 Used car prices have dropped over 10% in the last read, suggesting that the CPI might be flat or down, which could affect market volatility.
• 📈 Historical data suggests that the first half of July is typically a strong period for markets, and this year seems to be following the trend.
• 💼 Earnings expectations are high for mega-cap companies like Nvidia, with the market anticipating revenue growth, despite some slowing down.
• 📊 The global wave indicator from Bank of America shows an uptick, suggesting potential for bullish cycles in the market.
• 💡 The script emphasizes the importance of understanding data stats and market indicators, as well as the impact of government actions on inflation.
• 🚀 There is potential for significant market movements post-CPI release, especially in sectors like energy and materials, which have been showing strength.

Q & A

What significant financial events are expected to occur during the first half of July?

The first half of July is expected to be a volatile period with the release of CPI data and the start of the earnings season, particularly with major banks reporting their earnings.

What does the term 'positive gamma flow' refer to in the context of the video?

Positive gamma flow refers to the market's tendency to push higher when there is a significant amount of options activity that benefits from rising prices, as dealers hedge their positions by buying the underlying asset, further driving up the market.

How does the video suggest the CPI data might affect the market?

The video suggests that if the CPI data is higher than expected, it could lead to a volatile market reaction, as most people are pricing in a fall in CPI and are positioned for a bullish scenario.

What is the significance of shelter costs in the context of the CPI discussion?

Shelter costs are highlighted as a main target to watch in the CPI data because they have been ticking up in recent months and could significantly impact the overall CPI figure, contrary to the general expectation of a fall in CPI.

What is the general expectation for the CPI report according to the video?

The general expectation is that there will be a fall across the board in the CPI report, with items like used cars already showing a significant drop, but shelter costs might still be increasing.

What does the video suggest about the potential impact of the earnings season on the market?

The video suggests that the earnings season, especially with big banks starting to report, could lead to further market movements, and if the earnings are strong, they could drive the markets higher.

How does the video discuss the importance of watching key levels in the market?

The video emphasizes the importance of watching key levels for potential opportunities, as big news events can bring quick changes in liquidity levels and market direction.

What is the video's perspective on the current state of the crypto market?

The video indicates that the crypto market is currently struggling and not showing the same bullish trends as other sectors like metals and commodities.

What does the video suggest about the potential reaction of metals and commodities markets to inflation?

The video suggests that if inflation spikes, the metals and commodities markets, which are already showing signs of breakouts, could experience significant price increases.

What is the video's stance on the importance of watching asset manager and leverage fund positions?

The video suggests that watching asset manager and leverage fund positions is important because they are at decade highs, which could indicate a lot of leverage in the market, but also a lot of money due to years of money printing and government spending.

How does the video discuss the potential for market volatility during the earnings season?

The video anticipates a very volatile earnings season, with the potential for quick market movements based on the earnings reports of major companies, especially in the tech sector.