FEU Public Intellectual Lecture Series | Dr. Mahar Lagmay | Part 2
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses disaster risk assessment in the Philippines, emphasizing the importance of early warning systems and accurate, timely warnings. It highlights the role of technology, such as sensors and probabilistic hazard maps, in predicting and mitigating floods and landslides. The script underscores the need for integrating science and technology with local knowledge for effective disaster planning and climate change adaptation, aiming to develop communities resilient to natural hazards.
Takeaways
- 🌪️ Disaster Risk Assessment: In the Philippines, agencies meet to prepare for incoming typhoons and other hazards, focusing on hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings.
- 📈 Water Level Monitoring: Sensors are used to monitor water levels, with a sudden rise indicating an imminent disaster, providing a crucial lead time for evacuation.
- 🌧️ Rainfall and Floods: Heavy rainfall, especially during severe weather disturbances, can lead to devastating floods, and contouring rainfall data helps predict flood risks.
- 📊 Color Coding for Rainfall: Different colors on sensor maps represent varying levels of rainfall, with higher amounts indicating a higher risk of flooding.
- 🏞️ Runoff and River Levels: Rainfall in mountainous areas leads to runoff that can cause rivers to swell, and monitoring these levels is key to flood warning systems.
- 🚨 Early Warning Systems: Technology plays a critical role in providing early warnings, allowing communities time to evacuate before disasters strike.
- 🗺️ Importance of Maps: Accurate and up-to-date maps are essential for effective disaster response, including identifying safe evacuation routes and areas.
- 🏚️ Evacuation Center Safety: The location of evacuation centers must be carefully chosen based on hazard maps to avoid placing people in more danger.
- 🔬 Science and Technology in Hazard Mapping: Local knowledge is important, but it must be supplemented with scientific and technological data to accurately predict and prepare for future hazards.
- 🌡️ Climate Change Impacts: Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of rainfall events, necessitating updated planning and hazard maps.
- 🏘️ Comprehensive Community Planning: Integrating hazard and risk assessments into community planning across all sectors can lead to development unhampered by natural disasters.
Q & A
What is the primary purpose of disaster risk assessment meetings during a typhoon in the Philippines?
-The primary purpose is to prepare for incoming hazards by discussing and issuing hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings to ensure the safety of the population.
How do sensors help in disaster risk reduction?
-Sensors monitor rainfall and water levels, providing real-time data that can trigger alarms when there are significant increases, indicating potential hazards such as floods, allowing for timely evacuations.
What is the significance of the 'contouring' term mentioned in the script?
-Contouring refers to the process of mapping rainfall data from sensors, which helps in understanding the intensity and distribution of rainfall, crucial for predicting flood risks.
Why is it important to catch the water level while it's on the rise during severe weather disturbances?
-Catching the water level on the rise is critical because it provides the lead time needed for evacuations, potentially saving lives and reducing the impact of disasters.
How does the early warning system work in the context of disaster management?
-The early warning system works by using technology like sensors to monitor environmental conditions and issue alerts in time for people to take appropriate action and avoid hazards.
What was the impact of the lack of an early warning system in Cagayan de Oro in 2012?
-The lack of an early warning system in Cagayan de Oro led to devastating floods that caught people off guard, resulting in significant loss of life and property.
What are the two key elements in avoiding disasters according to the script?
-The two key elements are 'warning' and 'response'. Warnings must be accurate, reliable, timely, and understandable, while responses must be appropriate and prompt.
Why are evacuation maps important in disaster planning?
-Evacuation maps are important because they guide people to safe areas during disasters, helping to prevent casualties and ensuring the effectiveness of evacuation efforts.
What is the difference between deterministic and probabilistic hazard maps?
-Deterministic maps are based on a single scenario, often the worst remembered by the community, while probabilistic maps depict multiple scenarios, providing a more comprehensive understanding of potential hazards.
How can advanced technologies like LiDAR contribute to disaster risk reduction?
-Advanced technologies like LiDAR can create high-resolution maps that show elevations, land use, and potential hazard areas, enabling better planning and preparedness for disasters.
What is the role of science and technology in creating effective disaster risk reduction plans?
-Science and technology play a crucial role by providing data and insights that enhance the accuracy and comprehensiveness of disaster risk reduction plans, ensuring they are based on a sound understanding of potential hazards.
Outlines
🌪️ Disaster Risk Assessment and Early Warning Systems
The first paragraph discusses the importance of disaster risk assessment, particularly in the context of typhoons in the Philippines. It highlights the collaborative efforts of various agencies to prepare for incoming hazards by using hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings. The use of sensors to monitor rainfall and water levels is emphasized as a crucial tool for providing early warnings, allowing for timely evacuation. The narrative provides examples from past disasters, such as Typhoon Pedra, to illustrate the effectiveness of these systems. It also discusses the importance of understanding rainfall patterns and the potential for devastating floods, drawing comparisons with historical rainfall events in the UK and the Philippines.
🚨 The Role of Technology in Disaster Response
This paragraph emphasizes the critical role of technology in disaster response, focusing on the use of early warning systems to prevent flash floods. It recounts a specific incident in Cagayan de Oro in 2012, where an effective early warning system allowed people to evacuate to safety before the floods arrived. The paragraph also underscores the dual elements of disaster management: accurate and timely warnings from the government, and appropriate responses from the public. It points out the importance of having evacuation maps that are based on accurate and up-to-date data, contrasting the effectiveness of probabilistic hazard maps with the limitations of older, interview-based maps.
🗺️ The Importance of Accurate Hazard Maps
The third paragraph delves into the significance of accurate hazard maps in disaster preparedness and response. It discusses the inadequacy of deterministic maps based on past experiences and the need for probabilistic hazard maps that account for a range of scenarios. The paragraph provides examples of how outdated maps led to tragic outcomes, such as the placement of evacuation centers in hazardous areas during Typhoon Yolanda. It also discusses the use of advanced technologies like LiDAR to create more accurate and detailed maps, which are essential for effective planning and hazard mitigation.
🌱 Integrating Science and Technology in Community Planning
This paragraph discusses the integration of science and technology in community planning to mitigate the impacts of natural hazards and climate change. It highlights the use of probabilistic maps to identify safe and hazardous areas for various community functions, such as agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure development. The paragraph also touches on the importance of local climate change action plans and the role of advanced technologies in understanding and planning for the physics of water flow and landslide stability. It underscores the need for anticipatory planning that considers multi-hazard and multi-scenario risks.
🌊 Adapting to Climate Change and Increasing Rainfall
The fifth paragraph addresses the impact of climate change on rainfall patterns and the necessity of adapting to these changes. It presents projections of increased rainfall frequency and intensity, illustrating how historical rainfall events may become more common in the future. The paragraph calls for the translation of this scientific data into actionable planning measures, such as updating flood maps and planning for infrastructure that can withstand increased rainfall. It emphasizes the importance of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in community development planning.
🏛️ Transforming Disaster Risk Reduction into National Development
The final paragraph concludes the script by framing disaster risk reduction as a platform for national development. It suggests that by using probabilistic hazard maps, risk assessments, and local climate change action plans, the Philippines can proactively plan for and mitigate the impacts of natural hazards and climate change. The paragraph invites the audience to participate in this effort, emphasizing that through comprehensive and science-based planning, the country can achieve development that is resilient to disasters.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Disaster Risk Assessment
💡Early Warning System
💡Probabilistic Hazard Map
💡Climate Change Adaptation
💡Storm Surge
💡Landslide
💡Evacuation Center
💡Land Use Plan
💡Flash Flood
💡Rainfall Contouring
💡Local Climate Change Action Plans
Highlights
Disaster risk assessment involves a collaborative effort among agencies to prepare for incoming hazards such as typhoons.
Hazard-specific, area-focused, and time-bound warnings are crucial for disaster preparedness.
Sensors can provide early warnings by monitoring rainfall and water levels to predict floods.
A three to twelve-hour lead time is often available for evacuations based on sensor data.
The use of technology in early warning systems can prevent disaster by alerting communities in advance.
Rainfall contouring helps in understanding the severity of potential floods.
The Philippines experienced extreme rainfall during Habakkuk in 2012 and 2013, exceeding UK's flood-causing thresholds.
Runoff from heavy rainfall can lead to flash floods, emphasizing the need for rapid response.
Technology and early warning systems were instrumental in averting disaster in Cagayan de Oro in 2012.
The importance of accurate and timely warnings in conjunction with appropriate public response.
The need for proper evacuation planning and the use of hazard maps to guide safe relocation.
The inadequacy of deterministic hazard maps based on past experiences, versus the need for probabilistic hazard maps.
The devastating impact of Typhoon Yolanda and the importance of having advanced warning systems and maps.
Investment in technology like LiDAR to create accurate hazard maps for better disaster preparedness.
The integration of hazard maps with land use planning for comprehensive community development.
The role of climate change in intensifying and increasing the frequency of extreme weather events.
The necessity of adapting planning strategies to account for the impacts of climate change on natural hazards.
The concept of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction for sustainable community development.
Using probabilistic hazard maps and risk assessments to plan for future disasters and climate change impacts.
Transcripts
[Music]
we disaster risk assessment
wherein every time there's a typhoon
that enters the philippine
area of responsibility everybody
meets up all agencies concerned with
disasters meet up
and they discuss and the reason why they
discuss is because they want to prepare
for the incoming hazards
and they know that the warnings that
should be given
are the warnings that are hazard
specific area focus
and time bound so the way they
uh used it was okay for example when
they see that it's raining in a certain
place
and the water level increases
you can alarm the people
so water level that
that is recorded without any rain
is actually more or less at a certain
height
but when there's a severe weather
disturbance it goes up
and then when it suddenly goes up that's
when the disaster strikes
the trick to avoid the disaster is to
catch the water level while it's on the
rise
so if you have sensors that give you an
idea of where it's raining
and then you look at the water level
sensor from upstream
you know that you have at least about
three
to six hours sometimes 12 hours need
time to evacuate
and that was used in the past in pedra
to provide hazard specific
area focused and time-bound warnings
and when the drm
officer was called at around 12 o'clock
big floods happened at 6
10. so there was a lead time and before
the peak floods happened
the drm officer in the local government
unit was already able to
take them away from from the hazards so
just to explain further
how to do that warning so for example
from the sensors there's a record of
rainfall
now it's color the term is contouring
now from the
the sensor record you contour it's
yellow there it's blue
yellow means 300 to 400 millimeters of
rain
in the uk when they talk about 100
millimeters of rain
that's the type of rain that will cause
a flood
and will devastate an entire village
that's in the uk but during habakkuk in
2012
in 2013 we had rainfall
in metro manila that reached about
1063 millimeters
10 times more than what the british
people
fear so we are actually
in some some way brazilian this one is
300
so as shown in that color the scale
says 300 to 400. so if it rains
in the mountains the water will not
all sit through the ground some will
run off on the surface and when they run
off they enter into streams
enter into rivers okay and eventually
end up into the sea okay so if the
community is here
vegan is there if the community is here
and you record rainfall at a certain
instance to be more than
100 millimeters in this case 300 to 400
kilometers
you have enough time to avoid the flood
which will come 46 hours later
okay and that is the use of technology
you know
it's called as an early warning system
and we need to put that in place
because if we don't put that in place
then
there's no wiring system if there's no
warning system
we are caught unaware another case
happened in cagayan the oro this was on
december 4
2012 so this sensor
recorded rainfall that that caused the
river to
to go up from this level
from one meter to eight meters
in the span of one hour one hour to mass
18 you know how high eight meters
is that's two floors where
else will that water go but
to the sea and before it reaches the sea
it will have to pass through the guy and
the oil
which was devastated a year earlier in
2011
but despite the high water levels
and the floods rushing in
very quickly it's called as a flash
flood
by the time it came rushing towards
sagayan
they were already wide because of
technology there was an
early warning system and when the floods
came rushing
in all of the people were just in the
hills
trying to view that hazard so these are
the last slides
the famous disasters that happened
ever since macaroni and project noah
these are disasters that
happen disasters that were averted
but up to vinta but there were also
some that happened after 20
2012. like the pablo landslide like the
storm surge of cayenne
tropical storms that devastated many
towns in biliran
as well as mindanao respectively
in avoiding disasters there are two
types there are two
key elements warning and response
warning is the responsibility of
government it must be accurate
reliable timely and understandable
okay but no amount of
good worrying or accurate warning will
work
if you don't take action
goodbye
oh
am i correct did you hear that a lie
no you don't have a cell phone
nokia so
you didn't even bother so what about the
others
so with a warning which is the
responsibility of government
there must be a corresponding
appropriate response which is you
your response and your response must be
appropriate
not responding sleeping
and being one not even bothering to look
outside
that's not appropriate but sometimes if
you do that
sometimes people evacuate but you need
maps to tell you where to evacuate
and sometimes people go to evacuation
centers that are the places where they
die
right so maps are very important
like for example in tacloba
there was a storm surge warning
two days in advance
two days in advance
but the maps that were provided to them
two years before which was used by the
lgu
showed the storm surge inundation of the
coastal area here
here here here
and it's based on interviews
so interviewing
so it's based on the experience of the
community
not that i'm saying that it's not it's
not good data but
it's probably not sufficient it's
necessary
to collect the data from the people
but it's not sufficient because what
happened during yolanda was in
an event that was bigger than what they
remember
correct because this was a bigger event
than what they knew
and therefore they were caught off guard
they were surprised but
i'm in a surprise
what we needed before you land the strap
was a kind of map called as a
probabilistic hazard map
it's multi multi-scenario it depicts the
small storm surge the big storm surges
the bigger ones and the yolanda type
storm surge and had we have this kind
of map a probabilistic hazard map
before yolanda came we could have
advised
all of those people who went to
evacuation centers
where we could have advised people to
move away
two to three kilometers away from the
coastline
but we did not have those so the warning
gave
an absolute value of the height but did
not
give the inundation extent
the inland inundation it was a it's a
a warning of an absolute height in a
relative landscape
okay so we need these kinds of maps
we didn't have it let's say
one volatile technology from that time
when it happened
but now we do have it we we invested
billions of pesos to help to get
the technology in lidar and to train
young scientists to do the manual work
to
run these simulations to create this
kind of maps that would tell us
that could have told us that these
places are dangerous
and 80 70 to 80
of the evacuation centers got inundated
by storm surges
hundreds of people died
in those evacuation centers i'll give
you another example
this is a deterministic map single
scenario based on interviews
yellow refers to low susceptibility to
that smile this is an official map by
the way
so let's put the evacuation center here
because
amongst all the all of the places that's
the lowest
hazardous area the lowest susceptibility
to hazards
let's put the evacuation center there
but of course
after the disaster after it happened
many people died in that
that place barangay and all the map was
changed because it's it already happened
it's not it's part of the historical
record already
so it got transformed into a high
susceptibility
flooding okay this is barangay and
that one you can see that the river
flows here
it's a small river relatively small
river so
when the people were transferred to that
place as an evacuation site i mean
ah that river does not really become big
it's just like that we can stay here
this is a safe place
lacked science because the science
and the technology would have shown that
that place
was dangerous but science was not used
the technology was not done what
happened was
when tithing boffa came in it rained
and then it generated this big
debris flow a flood it's like a flood
but
instead of water it was eighty percent
boulders
twenty percent rocks so it overwhelmed
barangay and that
each of these dots here uh green even
white dots
these are rocks right yeah sometimes as
big as that
three meters below that man is the
evacuation center
where 566 people died
they went to the evacuation center
they were one that's why they went to
the evacuation center
but what happened the response
was not appropriate they went to the
wrong place
because the hazard map that was used
did not reflect the bigger event
than what they knew or than what they
remembered
so the lesson there is that when we make
maps we make maps that
are supplemented by science and
technology
local knowledge is good it's necessary
but not sufficient we must supplement it
with science and technology to depict
hazards of the future
to depict climate change impacts when we
talk about probabilistic maps it's
multi-scenario as opposed to single
scenario
and in the philippine practice in single
scenario nothing is
the scenario that is what is the worst
that is remembered by the community
but what if it is bigger than what the
community remembers
so we need multi-hazard multi-scenario
maps these are called
probabilistic maps so we have a storage
search that is small a storm surge that
is
bigger storm surges that is much bigger
landslides storm surge guy yolanda that
was landslides
then flats that are small bigger bigger
and then you put them together
because you have a multi scenario where
they hazard that
probabilistic hazard and despite
that areas that are safe
those in grey okay
that's where you site the evacuation
center
not in the red place but you will not
see that
safe or dangerous areas if you don't use
the technology and if you don't use the
science
and because of our investment we are now
able
to do that so this is interview based no
this is no landslide this is high
landslide
a low flat that's the deterministic
fanca
commandment gain on probabilistic you
make a good
depiction of the landscape at high
resolution you are able to know the
elevation
you can plot all of the elements in that
area even the land use map
and you can show a small flat
a bigger flag a much bigger plan
so multi-scenario pakistan having
probabilistic
bigger scenarios as well than what the
community knows
okay so for development planning that's
very important
let's say the interview based one
will tell that community or the planner
or
let's put the evacuation center here or
the school there
see that's the people in the community
remember that it does not flood
in that area but
a bigger event than what has happened in
the past
we are going to kill
and that can only be shown using
advanced technologies
that can only be depicted if you use
advanced technologies
which makes use of science our
understanding on the physics of flow of
water
and stability of drugs in the case of
landslides we have been doing
local climate change action plans for
all communities
right and then diving communities this
is their land use plan
you can put the flood the storms the
storm surge the landslide
hazards and their land use their
planning
put them all together and you can see
the plants in relation to hazards
so you don't need to imagine you can
already visualize and see
where the dangerous and where the safe
places are
correct okay so in planning for
settlement in a particular community
ah that's what we choose and we chose
that because the information was made
available
and it's very clear for agriculture uh
okay
nato in some parts but not all parties
then let's plant in
the non-flat road areas but for
flood-flowing areas for climate change
we
plant crops that are resilient to floods
and for tourism
carlow viewing center this is an actual
example that's the municipality
it's a bird viewing center it's
dangerous
it's very dangerous landslides due to
heavy rainfall may happen there any time
but we know that the storms don't come
in
every day they don't pass through every
day there's about
two to three times in a year from times
five
so what you do is you plan for uh
evacuation center then
a backup center so back up and there's a
storm and when it's in the
south china sea but might exit that go
back business as useful at the shortest
possible time
that's how you plan communities and when
you plan it you don't just plan it for
settlement and agriculture and for
tourism
you plan it for agriculture coastal
water health forestry biodiversity
the environment energy education tourism
infrastructure settlement
and mining sectors imagine
if you can plan a community and all
communities of the country
and plan it across all sectors
doing anticipatory planning there will
be
true and real development of
each and every municipality of our
country
they will progress unhampered by the
impacts of hazards
don't be intimidated by this graph no
this is just accumulated rainfall per
day
this is uh the frequency
so once every 100 you know for example
280 millimeters of rain as recorded by
pagasa
this is the historical record of pagasa
the black line
but we've heard about climate change and
tsunami is a climate change
um if there's uh
going to be impacts of global warming
one of those impacts would be more
intense and close
bringing more rain so there are
projections and this can be modeled
so in that in 280 millimeters of rain
when you project it to a climate
exchange scenario in 2049
or at climate change scenario by 2079
you're nothing 280 millimeters that
happens
once every 100 years becomes more
frequent
it's going to be once every 12.5 days
so with climate change
not only in scale but in frequency as
well
so we have to handle it more frequently
we have to deal with it more quickly
substance of climate change
inducting once every 100 years
once every 100 years in vista 280
i'm giving 400 millimeters
the david land but how do you translate
that into planning
so i give that knowledge of 280
now once every one hundred making 400
you're the municipal planner you're the
architect
you're the urban planner 280 million
four hundred
why thank you
but what will you do with that
information
how can you plan against the hazards
the rain is not the hazard
we must plan against the hazard so
somebody must translate that increasing
rainfall
into a map like this
that when translated new lane into a
flood
you can see the river and the flood
plains
inundated and what height
of blood will happen and you can see
that this subdivision is okay but this
subdivision is not
when that climate change event happens
now
extremely important this place
is dangerous but these places
are good even with increased rainfall
due to climate change
so we may want to think
that preparing
for hazards the historical rainfall
you know alumni you're not recording
preparing for the impacts of rainfall
that will transform into floods
as disaster risk reduction
correct yes
you prepare for this historical record
it's
the rr disaster is deduction
but if you prepare for rains that
are projected into the future bigger
events of the future
due to climate change you are doing
preparation for future disasters but
with climate change impacts
and to address those future disasters
you need to plan well
you need to adapt to the climate change
impacts
and it's called climate change
adaptation
but since you're dealing with disasters
as well natural hazards
we call it climate change adaptation
disaster risk reduction
we plan each and every community against
the hazards against climate change
impacts
across all sectors we do anticipatory
planning
we are developing that community away
from hazards
away from disasters unhampered by
natural natural disasters or natural
hazards
if we do that for all 1634
municipalities of the philippines we not
only develop each and every community
we get them free from disasters
and they develop their progress and if
all of these municipalities progress
our country develops our country
progresses
don't you like that don't you like that
without being the president you can get
the country to develop
would you like to be part of that effort
wouldn't you like the philippines to be
great and develop
we use the disaster platform we use that
bill to develop our country
using probabilistic hazard maps and
probabilistic risk assessment
and local climate change action plans
we make use of this concept reverse it
make that disaster platform work
for our country and make our country
without
using science
thank you
[Music]
you
Weitere ähnliche Videos ansehen
NATURAL HAZARDS, MITIGATION, AND ADAPTATION(Part 1) Earth and Life Science Grade 11 Discussion Video
Response 1: Effective risk and warning communication during natural hazards
BMKG: Dampak Perubahan Iklim dan Kerusakan Lingkungan Semakin Terasa
Science & Technology: Building the Filipino Nation
HAZARDS CAUSED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA / EARTH AND LIFE SCIENCE / SCIENCE 11 - MELC 18
Key Concepts of Disaster Readiness and Risk Reduction
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)