France's Insane Election Results Explained
Summary
TLDRThe French legislative elections' first round saw Marine Le Pen's National Rally leading and Macron's Ensemble a distant third. With a high turnout and an even vote split, the second round promises to be chaotic, with a record number of three-way and four-way runoffs. The outcome hinges on potential alliances to counter Le Pen, amid a generational divide and unprecedented high stakes for Macron's coalition.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ France held the first round of legislative elections with high voter turnout, setting the stage for a potentially chaotic second round.
- 🏆 The National Assembly elections utilize a two-round system where deputies are elected from single-member constituencies.
- 🥇 Marine Le Pen's National Rally led the first round, with Macron's Ensemble coming in third, indicating a significant shift in political dynamics.
- 🔄 The results shattered norms, with the National Rally winning more votes than any party in the first round of national elections.
- 👵👴 A generational divide is evident, with the National Rally favored by older voters and the New Popular Front Coalition by younger ones.
- 📊 The election saw an unprecedented number of 'triangular' runoffs due to the even split of votes and high turnout.
- 🤝 The final outcome may hinge on whether Macron and the left can form an anti-Le Pen alliance to prevent the National Rally from gaining a majority.
- 📉 Macron's Ensemble had its worst performance ever, raising questions about the decision to call snap elections.
- 📈 The polarizing nature of the election significantly boosted turnout to 67%, the highest since 1986.
- 🔍 The lack of a clear tactical voting coalition between Macron's Ensemble and the New Popular Front Coalition could benefit Le Pen.
- 📚 The script also promotes a magazine offering in-depth analysis of French and European elections, with a focus on the UK election.
Q & A
What event took place on Sunday in France as mentioned in the script?
-The first round of the ongoing legislative elections took place in France.
Which party topped the polls in the first round of the legislative elections?
-Marine Le Pen's National Rally came out on top in the first round.
How did Macron's party perform in the first round of the legislative elections?
-Macron's party, En Marche, came a distant third in the first round.
What is the significance of the high turnout and even vote split in the first round?
-The high turnout and even vote split set the stage for the most chaotic second round in the history of the Fifth Republic.
How many deputies are there in the National Assembly of the French Parliament?
-There are 577 deputies in the National Assembly.
What is the minimum number of seats required for a majority in the National Assembly?
-A majority requires 289 seats in the National Assembly.
What is the electoral system used for electing deputies in France?
-Deputies are elected via a two-round system where if no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the top two candidates go through to the second round.
What was the date for the second round of the legislative elections following the first round on Sunday?
-The second round was due on July 7th, 2024.
How did the results of the first round reflect a generational divide in French politics?
-The results showed that the New Popular Front is most popular with 18-34 year olds, the National Rally with 34-74 year olds, and Macron's Coalition with over 75s.
What was unprecedented about the number of triangular runoffs in the second round?
-There were 306 three-way runoffs and even five four-way runoffs, which is unprecedented and the previous record for triangular runoffs was 105 in 1997.
What is the big question following the first round of elections according to the script?
-The big question is whether Macron and the left will form an anti-Le Pen Alliance before the second round.
What was the turnout percentage in the first round of the legislative elections, and how does it compare to previous years?
-The turnout was at 67%, which is up nearly 20 points from 2022 and the highest figure since 1986.
How did the National Rally's performance in the first round compare to historical results?
-This was the National Rally's highest vote share in a national election and they actually won more votes than any party has received in the first round of either a presidential or legislative election.
What was the position of the New Popular Front (NFP) regarding the triangular runoffs?
-The NFP vowed to pull out of any triangular runoff where they were in third place, not giving a single vote to the National Rally.
What is the potential impact of a lack of a tactical voting coalition between Macron's party and the NFP?
-A lack of a tactical voting coalition could be good news for Le Pen, as it might lead to a more fragmented vote and potentially allow the National Rally to gain more seats.
What are the implications of the chaotic nature of the election for France's political landscape?
-The chaotic nature of the election implies that the final result is very much up for grabs and could significantly alter France's political landscape.
Outlines
🗳️ French Legislative Elections: A Chaotic Second Round Ahead
The first round of France's legislative elections saw the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen take the lead, with President Macron's Ensemble coming third. The high voter turnout and an even split of votes have set the stage for a potentially chaotic second round. The elections for the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament, require a majority of 289 seats out of 577. Deputies are elected through a two-round system, with a runoff if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The unusual outcome of the first round, with the National Rally winning 38 seats outright and a significant generational divide in political preferences, has led to a situation where Macron's coalition faces its worst performance ever. The high stakes of the second round, scheduled for July 7th, are underscored by the need for tactical alliances to prevent the National Rally from gaining an absolute majority.
🔍 Unprecedented Triangular Runoffs and Political Maneuvering
The second paragraph delves into the unprecedented nature of the current French legislative elections, with a record number of triangular runoffs—306—and even five four-way runoffs. The majority of these are between the National Rally, the New Popular Front (NFP), and Macron's Coalition, with some also involving the Republicans. The high voter turnout, the highest since 1986, has amplified the impact of the vote split. The NFP has pledged to avoid any runoffs where they are in third place, effectively refusing to support the National Rally. The focus now is on whether Macron will reciprocate with a tactical voting coalition against the National Rally. The lack of clarity on this front at the time of writing is advantageous for Le Pen. Even if an agreement is reached, it may not be effective due to potential preferences of Macron's right-leaning voters and NFP's anti-establishment voters for the National Rally over their respective coalitions. The outcome is highly uncertain, promising to be one of the most chaotic elections in France's modern history.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Legislative Elections
💡National Rally
💡En Marche!
💡Two-Round System
💡Majority
💡Turnout
💡Triangular
💡Generational Divide
💡Snap Elections
💡Tactical Voting
💡New Popular Front
Highlights
France held the first round of legislative elections with the National Rally leading and Macron's Ensemble coming in third.
High voter turnout and an even vote split are setting the stage for a chaotic second round.
The National Assembly elections use a two-round system with 577 deputies and a majority threshold of 289 seats.
In the first round, if no candidate wins a majority, the top two and others with at least 12.5% of votes advance to the second round.
The second round of elections is scheduled for July 7th, with a potential for up to eight candidates to advance in a single constituency.
Three-candidate runoffs, known as 'triangulars,' are rare due to mathematical reasons and the typical low voter turnout.
Centrist parties traditionally benefit from the system as voters from eliminated parties often support them in the second round.
Macron's coalition and Mélenchon's left-wing alliance both had similar vote shares in the first round, but diverged in the second.
The National Rally won the highest vote share in a national election, shattering norms and signaling a generational divide.
Macron's coalition had its worst performance ever, questioning the decision to call snap elections.
The polarizing nature of the election significantly boosted turnout to 67%, the highest since 1986.
An unprecedented number of triangulars occurred, with 306 three-way runoffs and even five four-way runoffs.
Most triangulars are between the National Rally, NFP, and Macron's Coalition, with about 30 involving the Republicans.
The final result may depend on whether parties can form an alliance to counter the National Rally.
Mélenchon has stated the NFP would pull out of any triangular where they are third, not giving any votes to the National Rally.
Macron's stance on forming a tactical voting coalition against the National Rally remains vague.
A potential alliance between Macron and the NFP may not work due to voter preferences for the National Rally over either.
The election is set to be one of the most chaotic in France's modern history with an uncertain outcome.
The magazine 'Too Long' offers in-depth journalism on the French and European elections, with a focus on the UK election.
The magazine is available in standard and premium editions, with the latter offering additional perks like a behind-the-scenes podcast.
Transcripts
on Sunday France went to the polls for
the first round of the ongoing
legislative elections and while the
results broadly reflected the polls with
the Pen's National rally coming out on
top and macron's ensom coming a distant
third the high turnout and relatively
even vote split means that we're now set
for the most chaotic second round in the
history of the fifth Republic so in this
video we're going to explain what
happened on Sunday why these results are
utterly insane and why the big question
now is whether macron and the left form
an anti- Leen
[Music]
Alliance before we start if you haven't
already please consider subscribing and
ringing the bell to stay in the loop and
be notified when we release new
videos so to understand quite how Wild
these results are you need to know how
these elections work the elections
happening now for the National Assembly
the lower House of the French Parliament
there are 577 deputies in the assembly
so 289 seats are required for a majority
and each Deputy represents a single
member constituency now importantly
deputies are elected via a two round
system If no candidate wins a majority
of votes in the first round the top two
candidates as well as anyone who receive
votes equivalent to at least 12.5% of
registered voters go through to the
second round where whoever gets the most
votes wins what happened on Sunday was
the first round and the second round is
due this Sunday on July 7th now in
theory eight candidates could go through
to the second round in a single
constituency if there was 100% turnout
and the vote was perfectly split between
the eight candidates with 12.5% each in
practice though most of the time only
two candidates go through the second
round and three candidate runoffs known
in France as a triangular are pretty
rare now this is for pretty obvious
mathematical reasons for the past few
elections turnout has hovered around 50
% which means that in the median
constituency three candidates all need
to get above 25% of the vote for a
triangular to occur and votes are rarely
this evenly distributed but on top of
this when three candidates do go through
the least well-placed candidate often
steps aside to stop the vote from being
split to give you a sense of quite how
rare these triangulars are in 2017 there
was one and in 2022 there were only
eight the other thing need to understand
about this system is that it's
traditionally benefited Centrist parties
because even if they don't win in the
first round they generally do better in
the second round as voters from the
parties that didn't make it through lend
their votes to the cists as their least
unpopular option for instance if you're
a right-wing voter whose party didn't
make it through the second round you
might vote for the centrists in order to
stop the left and if you're a leftwing
voter whose party didn't make it through
you also might vote for the cist to stop
the right
this is why in 2022 macron's Centrist
Coalition and John Luke melanson's
leftwing Alliance both won nearly
exactly the same fraction of the popular
vote in the first round 25.8% and
25.7% while in the second round macron's
Coalition won 39% of the votes and 245
seats while the left won just 32% of the
vote and 131 seats however on Sunday
both of these Norms were shattered
according to final results the vote was
relatively evenly split between Marine
leen's National rally Le Coalition who
won 33% of the vote the left-wing new
popular front coalition who won 28% of
the vote and macron's Coalition who won
21% the national rally came first in 51%
of constituencies the NFP came first in
26% and macron's Coalition came first in
just 10% furthermore the national rally
won 38 seats outright in the first round
the NFP 32 and macron's Coalition won
just two these results lay bare a
glaring generational divide in French
politics according to exit polls the NFP
is by far in away the most popular party
with 1834 year olds while the national
rally are the most popular with 34 to 74
year olds and macron's Coalition are the
most popular with the over 75s while
this is broadly in line with the
pre-election polls it's nonetheless both
a phenomenal result for the national
rally and a pretty terrible result for
macron's Coalition by historical
standards not only is this the national
Rally's highest vote share in a national
election but they actually won more
votes than any party has received in the
first round of either a presidential or
legislative election conversely it's
macron's worst performance ever and it
seriously calls into question his
decision to call Snap elections on top
of that it seems like the polarizing
nature of the election the left sphere
of the national rally and the right
sphere of the NFP significantly boosted
turnout which came in at
67% up nearly 20 points from 2022 and
the highest figure since 1986 this
combination of a three-way split in the
vote and high turnout has given way to
an unprecedented number of triangulares
with 306 three-way runoffs and even five
four-way runoffs the vast majority of
these triangulars are between the
national rally NFP and macron's
Coalition but about 30 year between the
national rally the the NFP and the
Republicans who won about 7% of the
popular vote this is utterly
unprecedented though the previous record
for triangular was 105 in 1997 which
fell to just 79 after 26 candidates
withdrew and the last time there was a
four-way runoff was way back in
1973 this also means that the final
result depends more than ever on whether
or not the various parties and
especially the NFP and macron can strike
a deal to squeeze out the national rally
in the immediate aftermath of the
results Shan L melanon came out and said
that the NFP would pel out of any
triangular where their third place
vowing not a single vote for the
national rally this means that the big
question is whether macron will return
the favor and form a tactical voting
coalition against the national rally but
so far they've been a bit vague on the
issue while the Prime Minister encourage
tactical voting in order to quote
prevent the national Rally from having
an absolute majority in the second round
macron himself only called for voters to
Rally behind candidates who are quote
clearly Republican and Democratic which
doesn't obviously include all of the NFP
and his Finance Minister said that melan
Sean's France unbowed one of the more
radical parties in the NFP are as
dangerous as the national rally while a
deal might be agreed by the time this
video goes out the lack of one at the
time of writing is good news for Le Pen
and even if macron and the NFP do come
to some sort of agreement it's not clear
it will necessarily work this is because
many more right-leaning macron voters
might actually prefer the national rally
to the NFP and many more
anti-establishment NFP voters might
actually prefer the national rally to
macron whatever happens this looks set
to be the most chaotic election in
perhaps France's modern history and
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