Macron's surprise snap polls, rise of Marine LePen’s Right, complexities & future of French politics

Summary

The video script delves into the significance of French politics, particularly the parliamentary elections, and their impact on India-France relations. It discusses the historical ties between the two nations and the unique electoral system in France designed to prevent extreme parties from winning. The script also explores President Macron's political strategy, including the possibility of his return to power after a gap, and the rise of Marine Le Pen's party, which has evolved from its far-right origins to a more moderate stance while still addressing immigration and European policy concerns.

Takeaways

• 🤝 France has been a close and trusted partner to India for over 70 years, with cooperation spanning various sectors including defense.
• 🛫 The Indian Air Force has historically relied on French jets, highlighting the strategic importance of this relationship.
• 🗳️ French politics is taken seriously, with the French working on Sundays for two consecutive weeks to vote in their parliamentary elections.
• 🏛️ France's electoral system is designed to prevent extreme parties from winning, requiring candidates to meet specific thresholds in the first round of voting.
• 📜 The French political landscape has seen reforms, including term limits for the president and synchronizing parliamentary and presidential elections.
• 🔄 Macron's decision to call for early parliamentary elections is a strategic move amidst declining popularity of his centrist policies and reforms.
• 📊 Marine Le Pen's party, RN (National Rally), has been gaining ground, capitalizing on anti-immigration and anti-Europe sentiments, and is poised to challenge Macron's party.
• 👥 The French political scene is witnessing a rise of young leaders, with Macron's Prime Minister being only 35 years old and the potential for a 27-year-old prime minister if RN wins.
• 🕊️ Marine Le Pen is attempting to moderate her party's image by removing divisive elements and embracing environmentalism and feminism to broaden her appeal.
• 🔮 Despite the political shifts, the India-France relationship is expected to remain stable due to its solid foundation and mutual interests.
• 🌐 Macron's political gamble with early elections aims to test the waters for his centrist ideology against the rising tide of right-wing politics in France.

Q & A

Why is French politics important for India?

French politics is important for India because France has been India's closest and most trusted Western partner for over 70 years, with significant cooperation in various areas including defense, where French jets have been at the forefront of India's arsenal.

What is unique about the French electoral system?

The French electoral system is unique due to its two-round voting process, where if no candidate receives over 50% of the vote and at least 25% of all registered voters' support in the first round, a second round is held with the top candidates from the first round.

Why did France's parliamentary elections get rescheduled?

France's parliamentary elections were rescheduled because President Macron decided to dissolve the existing National Assembly and call for early elections, possibly as a strategic move to counter the rise of the far-right party led by Marine Le Pen.

What is the significance of the 'one nation, one election' reform in France?

The 'one nation, one election' reform in France, initiated in 2008, aimed to synchronize the timing of presidential and parliamentary elections to ensure a harmonious governance structure and prevent conflicts between the executive and legislative branches.

How does the division of powers work in France?

In France, there is a division of powers between the directly elected President, who controls international affairs, defense policy, and European policy, and the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the President from the majority party in the Parliament and oversees internal policy, law and order, economy, finance, and immigration.

What is the current situation of President Macron's party in the polls?

As per the script, President Macron's party, Renaissance, is currently not doing well in the polls, potentially facing the risk of winning very few or even zero seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

What is the role of the Prime Minister in France's political system?

The Prime Minister in France is appointed by the President from the party with the largest number of MPs. They are responsible for internal policy, law and order, economy, finance, and immigration, often working in tandem with the President when they are from the same party.

Why did Marine Le Pen's party undergo a name change and reforms?

Marine Le Pen's party underwent a name change from National Front to National Rally (RN) and implemented reforms to distance itself from its extremist past, expelling Holocaust deniers and older members, and bringing in younger, more professional individuals to broaden its appeal.

What is the historical context of the rise of Marine Le Pen's party?

The rise of Marine Le Pen's party began to gain traction from 1997, with concerns over immigration and Islam leading to increased popularity. Marine Le Pen has gradually moved the party towards a more modern right-wing stance, including environmentalism and feminism, while maintaining its core anti-immigration and anti-Europe sentiments.

What are the implications of Macron's early elections for his presidency and the French political landscape?

Macron's decision to call early elections is a strategic gamble that could potentially risk his party's majority in the Parliament but secures his presidency until 2027. It also presents an opportunity for the right-wing parties to take control of the Parliament, which could lead to a period of cohabitation between conflicting political ideologies.

How might the French elections impact India-France relations?

Despite the potential changes in the French political landscape, the India-France relationship is expected to remain stable and solid, as it is deeply rooted in historical ties and mutual interests that transcend domestic politics.

Outlines

00:00

🤵 France's Special Relationship with India and Upcoming Elections

This paragraph discusses the historical and strategic partnership between France and India, highlighting France's consistent support for India over the decades. It mentions the French exception during sanctions and the significance of French involvement in Indian defense, particularly through the supply of jets. The script also introduces the topic of French politics, emphasizing the importance of understanding France's political landscape due to its impact on India. The discussion then shifts to the intricacies of the French parliamentary election system, explaining the process and the unique requirements for a candidate to advance to the second round. The paragraph concludes with the mention of the upcoming French parliamentary elections and the potential implications for French politics.

05:02

🏛️ French Political Reforms and Macron's Strategic Maneuvering

The second paragraph delves into the political reforms in France, focusing on term limits for the presidency and the synchronization of parliamentary and presidential elections. It outlines the complex electoral process, including the unique French approach to preventing extreme parties from gaining power. The script then discusses the unexpected timing of the current parliamentary elections, which were not originally scheduled due to the recent reforms. The discussion centers on President Macron's decision to hold early elections, possibly as a strategic move to counter the rising popularity of the far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen. The paragraph also touches on Macron's potential motivations and the implications of the elections for his party and government.

10:02

📊 Macron's Party Struggles and the Rising Far-Right in French Politics

This paragraph examines the current state of Macron's Renaissance party, which is facing significant challenges in the upcoming elections, with the possibility of winning no seats at all. It contrasts this with the rising popularity of Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, which has seen a significant increase in support, particularly following the European Parliament elections. The script also explores Macron's potential strategy in calling for early elections, speculating that he may be betting on the right-wing parties' inability to form a stable government, thereby paving the way for a potential resurgence of his own party in the future.

15:04

🔍 The Evolving Face of French Right-Wing Politics and Marine Le Pen's Strategy

The fourth paragraph explores the transformation of Marine Le Pen's party, the National Rally, from its extremist roots to a more modern and professional image. It discusses Le Pen's efforts to cleanse the party of its most divisive elements and present a more moderate face to the public. The script also highlights the potential for a young leader, Jordan Bardella, to become the next Prime Minister if the National Rally party wins the elections. The discussion includes the party's shift towards environmentalism and feminism, as well as its distancing from controversial ties to Russia.

20:04

🗳️ The Complex Dynamics of French Politics and Macron's Calculus

This paragraph delves into the complex dynamics of French politics, with the emergence of a new right-wing movement alongside the established left and right. It discusses Macron's strategic decision to call for early elections, risking his government but securing his presidency. The script speculates on Macron's motivations, including the potential for the right-wing alliance to collapse under its own contradictions and the possibility of his party making a comeback in the future. It also touches on Marine Le Pen's efforts to 'demonize' her party's image and the challenges she faces in gaining broader public support.

25:07

🌏 The Resilience of France-India Relations Amidst French Political Shifts

The final paragraph concludes the discussion by emphasizing the resilience of France-India relations, suggesting that regardless of the outcomes of French domestic politics, the strategic partnership between the two countries is likely to remain stable. It reiterates the historical importance of the relationship and hints at its continued significance in the face of political changes. The script also reflects on the broader implications of the French political landscape for international relations and the potential for a realignment of political forces in the country.

Keywords

💡French politics

French politics refers to the political landscape and processes within France. The video discusses the importance of French politics in relation to India and the intricacies of the French parliamentary election system. The theme of the video is deeply intertwined with French politics, especially with the upcoming parliamentary elections and the potential impact on France's political stability and international relations.

💡Mutual funds

Mutual funds are investment vehicles that pool money from many investors to invest in a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, or other assets. In the script, mutual funds are mentioned in the context of investment advice, emphasizing the difference between saving and investing. The video suggests that Legends, presumably a group of knowledgeable investors, invest in mutual funds as a way to grow their wealth, subject to market risks.

💡Macron

Emmanuel Macron is the current President of France, and the script discusses his political decisions and their implications. Macron's decision to call for early parliamentary elections is a central point in the video, highlighting his strategy to potentially reshape the political landscape in France. His party's performance in these elections could significantly influence his presidency and France's domestic and foreign policies.

💡Cohabitation

Cohabitation in French politics refers to a situation where the President and the Prime Minister are from different political parties. The script mentions Marine Le Pen's stance on cohabitation, suggesting that if her party wins, they would not force Macron to resign but would instead engage in a power-sharing arrangement. This concept is crucial to understanding the potential outcomes of the French parliamentary elections.

💡National Rally (RN)

National Rally, formerly known as National Front, is a right-wing political party in France led by Marine Le Pen. The script discusses the party's rise in popularity and its potential to influence the French political scene. The party's shift from more extreme positions to a more moderate stance, while still holding a strong anti-immigration and anti-EU sentiment, is highlighted as a key aspect of its political strategy.

💡Parliamentary elections

Parliamentary elections in France are used to elect members of the National Assembly. The video script delves into the complexities of the French electoral system, including the requirements for a candidate to win in the first round and the potential for a second round of voting. The upcoming parliamentary elections are a focal point of the video, as they may significantly alter the balance of power in France.

💡Separation of powers

The concept of separation of powers refers to the division of government responsibilities into distinct branches to limit any one branch from exercising the core functions of another. In the context of the video, the script explains the division of powers between the French President and the Prime Minister, with the President controlling foreign policy and defense, while internal policy and economic matters fall under the Prime Minister's jurisdiction.

💡One nation, one election (OE)

The idea of 'one nation, one election' is a political reform proposal that suggests holding all government elections at the same time. The script mentions a reform in 2008 under President Sarkozy that aimed to synchronize French parliamentary and presidential elections. This reform is significant as it was intended to streamline the political process and potentially reduce political fragmentation.

💡Centrist politics

Centrist politics refers to a political ideology that seeks a middle ground between liberal and conservative positions. The script discusses Macron's centrist approach and its impact on French politics. Macron's party, Renaissance, is positioned as a centrist force, and the video explores how this positioning has influenced his political decisions and the French electorate's response.

💡Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen is a French politician who is the leader of the National Rally party. The script explores her political strategies, including the 'demonization' of her right-wing politics and her efforts to make her party more palatable to a broader electorate. Her potential role in the upcoming parliamentary elections and her party's growing influence are central to the video's narrative.

💡Cohabitation (1997-2002)

The term 'Cohabitation' is used in the script to describe a historical period in French politics between 1997 and 2002, where the President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin from opposing parties had to work together. This example is given to illustrate how political parties with differing ideologies can govern together, which is relevant to the potential outcomes of the current parliamentary elections.

Highlights

India and France have a long history of close ties, with France being India's most trusted Western partner for over 70 years.

French jets have been at the forefront of the Indian Air Force's arsenal since the 1950s.

France was one of the few Western countries to maintain an exception for India during American sanctions.

French politics is taken very seriously, with voters going to the polls on two Sundays for parliamentary elections.

France's electoral system is designed to prevent extreme parties from winning, with a complex two-round voting process.

President Macron's recent reforms included term limits for the presidency and synchronizing parliamentary and presidential elections.

Macron's party, Renaissance, may face significant losses in the upcoming elections, potentially winning zero seats.

Despite potential losses, Macron's presidency is secure until 2027 due to the nature of the French political system.

The French political landscape is witnessing a rise in young leaders, with the possibility of a 27-year-old Prime Minister.

Marine Le Pen's party, RN (National Rally), has been gaining popularity with a platform of anti-immigration and anti-EU sentiment.

Macron's early dissolution of the National Assembly is a strategic move to challenge the rise of the extreme right.

Marine Le Pen's party is undergoing a rebranding to appear less divisive and more moderate.

Despite political shifts, the India-France relationship is expected to remain stable, immune to domestic politics.

Macron's call for unity against extremism reflects a broader desire for a shared, sincere project beneficial to France.

The French political system features a unique division of powers, with the President and Prime Minister often from different parties.

The French political climate is currently marked by a contest between the old right, a new right, and centrist politics.

Macron's reforms and the current political situation in France are closely watched due to the country's global influence.

Transcripts

are you sure here's the 30C lesson on

what Legends know never ask a bride why

she's getting married don't wear a skirt

on a windy

day deant is not a

shower don't sniff chil flee and don't

forget saving is not investing Legends

don't just save they invest in mutual

funds mutual fund Investments are

subject to Market risks read old scheme

related documents carefully

[Music]

kak clutter today takes us to France or

to French politics now why are we

talking about French politics of all

things just when we are still picking up

strands from our own election results

that's because one France is very

important for India France for more than

70 years has been India's closest and

most trusted Western partner in fact

ever since the early 1950s when Indian

Air Force acquire its first Jets a

French jet has been in the front line of

its Arsenal it's also it's also no

coincidence that it's always been a des

Made jet and there are many other areas

of cooperation so even in decades of

American and American L sanctions on

India there was always a French

exception for India in fact even during

the emergency when Mrs Gandhi indraa

Gandhi wanted some Western leader to

come and give her some sort of an Endor

ement and legitimacy on Republic Day it

was Jack sherak then prime minister in

1976 who accepted to be the chief guest

so there is a French exception towards

India and wi say Versa even in in the

era of the great great skepticism that

India had about the Western World India

looked at France differently so France

is very important for India India and

France have also done lots of things

over the past decades to cement this

relationship that said one more reason

we should talk about French politics is

that you know the French take their

politics so seriously that despite all

that is said about the easygoing French

approach to life they're going to work

Sundays they're going to work not one

Sunday but two Sundays so 30th of June

that is a week from now 30th of June

France votes for the first round of its

Parliament elections then exactly 7 days

later on July 7 they'll vote in the

second round France has a complicated

system whereby if in the first round a

candidate gets more than 50% of the vote

and at least 25% of the vot of

registered voters how does it work it's

a bit complicated but this is France how

this works is if a constituency say has

I'm looking at the Indian context say

has 15 lakh votes voters of the 15 lakh

voters suppose only 3 lakh have voted

now a candidate can have 50% of that but

that will not be 25% of all registered

voters so these are the basic

requirements if a candidate has more

than 50% of the vote cost and it amounts

to more than 25% of all registered vote

which means basically that at least 50%

people have voted then that candidate

goes to the next round then among the

other candidates anybody who's got more

than 12 and a half% can go to the next

round so the next round then has another

election so voters have a right to

change their mind voters get two shots

in the French system not one and very

often it might happen that in the first

round they vote one way and then they

think oh all right these guys are

getting too many seats maybe I want a

little moderation a little change so

this is how complicatedly the system

works the system was also designed in a

way that extreme parties or extreme

candidates don't win so if first pass

the post system the kind of system we

have there are 20 candidates somebody

can win maybe with 10% vote 12% vote and

that's how some extreme parties and

candidates can win in Europe after the

second world war many countries who

suffered from Nazism and and

majoritarianism majoritarian excess they

took these precautions they UR shrin

these precautions into their electoral

and political systems the Germans

created a system whereby it's almost

impossible for anybody to get a clear

large majority so Germany Italy France

all of them took this corrective

measures France has one now the second

thing is second important thing again

the reason we should talk about French

politics is why did how did France get

here because France was not scheduled to

have these elections if anything one of

of the reforms that France carried out

in 2008 under President sarosi in fact

there was a there was a multiple set of

reforms but the two most significant

reforms were one he said that no

president will be able to contest for

more than two terms nobody can be

president for more than two terms I'm

wording it more correctly now nobody can

be president for more than two terms

which were later redefined to mean that

no nobody will remain president for more

than two consecutive terms which means

after a break a two-term president can

come back to contest this is significant

in macron's context which we'll explain

to you as we as we go along the second

reform we made was a reform that Modi

government was talking about it's been

talking about on which now former

president kovind his committee has

presented a report that is one nation

one election o OE so 2008 with the with

reform sarosi also laid out laid down

that in future French Parliament and

presidential elections will take take

place at the same time this had followed

yet another reform that had been carried

out in the in the time of his

predecessor president Jac sharak I told

you when he came to India was prime

minister now he was president in 2000

France had a referendum whereby the

French people decided that their presid

president will no longer have a 7-year

term until then the president had a

7-year term now on they said the

president will have a fiveyear term so

every five years all of France will go

to the polls they will elect the

national Parliament and they will also

elect a president president would be

president is elected directly every

French citizen adult citizen votes for

the president directly doesn't matter

where he or she votes for for National

Parliament so this is a complex system

again this is France right so there's so

there's always a French way of doing

things so in the complex system there is

a national Parliament 577 members so so

say about 290 289 is the is the majority

Mark 577 it's difficult for any party to

get a majority Mark very often the same

party which has the largest number of

seats also has the president so because

that ideology or that party is popular

people also elect somebody from that

party as the president

so there is Parliament and that

Parliament then has a prime minister

prime minister is appointed by the

president from the party with the

largest number of MPS now very often if

the largest party does not have a

majority it it makes coalitions with

others as macron's party has done after

2022 elections when his party did not

get a majority but was the single

largest party and they were able to form

coalitions once again remember this is

France so everything has to be unique in

France there is no such thing as

anti-defection law there is no such

thing as the whip so MPS can vote any

which way then there is a division of

powers and what kind of division of

powers there is a division of powers

when we say separation of powers or

division of powers we means powers that

that the elected government has the

executive has Parliament has Judiciary

has in France

in addition to that there is a

separation of powers between the Prime

Minister and the government which is

picked which is picked from the majority

of MPS in National Parliament or in the

in the lower house and and between the

directly elected president for example

now just for Simplicity the directed

elected president controls International

Affairs or foreign policy number two

defense policy number three very

important in France or in any European

country European policy so those are his

preserves internal policy Law and Order

economy Finance etc etc immigration most

important now in Europe all of that

remains with the Prime Minister and the

and the government that is produced out

of this Parliament so very often the

relationship between the two is is is

smooth particularly when they happen to

be from the same party although from

what I read right now in in

international press particularly the

financial times that's been by latest

reading on this it looks like there are

strains between President macron and his

prime minister from his own party

Gabriel

atal now I can understand you can

understand that tension because it looks

like President macron did not consult

anybody before announcing this

election probably not even his prime

minister because it doesn't look like

his prime minister is ready for this and

all the opinion polls right now are

showing that President macron's party is

doing very badly his party is called the

Renaissance party it's doing very badly

in fact end up may end up doing really

badly but remember before I go any

further his party may end up with zero

seats right that means Mr atal will

prime minister atal just 35 years old he

will lose his job he might lose his job

but even if that happens even if his

party gets zero which is unlikely but

even if his party gets zero or does very

badly but remember all of this has to be

read with the Proviso that opinion polls

can be wrong as we know very well and

people can change their minds

particularly in a two stage election

two-phase election that said

theoretically even if his party draws a

blank gets a zero out of

577 nothing happens to him he continues

to be president till

2027 that's how the politics works

because he is directly elected in this

case however he will have to work with a

prime minister who's opposed who's from

a party that is opposed to him and they

will then have to find a modus vendi

between each other has it happened

before in French history yes it has

happened between 1997 and 2002 when Jack

sharak was president and the Prime

Minister was Leonel jospin in fact 1997

is also an important part of important

point in French political history

because that's when the Leen party the

lepen family party has begun to rise in

its popularity as concern over

immigration concern concern over Islam

Etc begins to rise we'll come to that in

a little bit let me first tell you why

has this election come about because if

the French decided on one one nation one

election just 2002 an election took

place in which which in which macron

macron won a second

term pretty good thing in in in France

to win a second term remember sarosi was

not able to win a second term he won a

second term after sarosi cameand who

sold the raal to us right and after

Holan came came macron and macron has

won a second term the reason this

election is taking place now when these

MPS are only two years into their

elected positions and that's why a lot

of the MPS are very unhappy particularly

MPS from from macron's party because

they are saying we just won our

elections and now you are saying that we

are gone and we have to fight elections

again the reason this has happened is

that macron has taken a big punt why he

has taken this punt there is a lot of

discussion about that I'll take you I'll

take you take you through that but

basically elections to European

Parliament have just taken place in June

European Parliament in European par

Parliament every European member has a

certain number of seats allocated to it

so France has 81 seats allocated to it

in a house of 720 of these 81 different

parties have won their seats left for

example is 1 n somebody's 1 one

somebody's 113 but the largest single

party among the friend seats that Marine

liens party the party was formed by her

father johar lipen in

1972 he has since been expelled from

from the party because he was also when

the party carried out a cleanup around

2015 and got rid of many quote unquote

extremists particularly Holocaust

deniers it also it also expelled the

founder of the party who happens to be

the father of the current chief of the

party she is not forly the president of

the party but she is she owns that party

Marine Leen so Marine leen's party one

riding on riding on kind of anti Europe

sentiment anti-immigration sentiment

anti anti-immigrant sentiment and hidden

hidden under all hidden under all that

that is a a fear of Islam growing

growing Islamic presence etc etc etc

riding all of that she now got the

largest number of seats her voting

percentage in fact was more than twice

as much twice as much as that of

macron's party she got 31.3% of the vote

macron's Renaissance party got 14.6% of

the vote lipen party is now called RN or

national rally it used to be called when

her father founded it it used to be

called National front for French unity

and at that point it had all the extreme

right-wing elements former Veterans of

the Algerian War for example Holocaust

deniers it has it had monarchists

anti-communists Libertarians it was

quite quite a mix of all those

characters over time a lot of that has

got cleared out in fact of the reforms

that Marine lipen has carried out in her

father's party which included expelling

her own father these reforms have also

included expelling a large number of the

older members of the party and these

have been replaced by younger more

professional people onethird more than

onethird of the current members of our

party are below the age of 40 in fact if

she wins this election her candidate

will be the gentleman who she who she's

now appointed her party's chief that is

Jordan bardel Jordan bellaa could be the

next prime minister of France if opinion

polls are right and you know how old is

he he is 27 so that is the other

interesting thing for us France France

P5 country will have a 27y old prime

minister but hello France already has a

35y old prime minister and in fact when

he became prime minister he was just 33

so it is the French which in the past

had really old leaders right they now

have a lot of young leaders and that is

what brings me back to why that one one

change whereby nobody can be president

consecutively for more than two terms

but can come back to contest again after

a gap that is what applies to macron and

a lot of people think that one reason

he's taken this risk he's noticed that

his Centrist politics has not become

unpopular because he has taken he has

made very unpopular reforms particularly

on pensions Etc pensions retirement

people are angry so maybe it is time let

the let the right win be my guest but

they will mess things up and people will

miss more sane quote unquote sane

politics and that will allow his party

and his ideology to come back and and if

that works 2027 until then nobody can

remove him and 2027 elections he can't

contest because he would have finished

two terms but he can come back to

contest in

2032 and if he does so how old would he

be he will only be 54 years old he'll be

the same age as Rahul Gandhi is now as

Rahul Gandhi turned 54 just a couple of

days back macron will be 54 into 2032 if

he decided to contest for a third term

it looks like that's one of the

motivations for him in calling these

early elections dissolving his his house

so so summarily and calling early

elections that look you guys of the of

of the extreme right you think you can

run a government go ahead run a

government let me say see how you do he

might also think that in the course of

time RN that is Marine leense party will

fall apart as as they go from one phase

to the other other and onwards and

people will also realize that they're

moving to more extreme

politics voices have already spoken out

for example some of the great African

origin stars of French football World

Cups coming up right they are speaking

out Kyan bppe he's he spoken out and in

fact he said and I quote hope I will be

proud to wear this shirt the French

shirt Cherry hry he has said time has

come to block the extremes so maybe

maybe they will be a change of mind we

don't know although the opinion polls

now say at this point that RN that is

Marine leens party that is 35% of the

vote npf which is now a new Coalition of

right-wing parties the old right-wing

parties new popular front that has

26.5% of the vote and macron's

Renaissance party has 19% but as I told

you once again with opinion polls be

careful and also people have the right

to change their minds as they get close

to an election so I have for you some

wisdom from Oliver Blanchard now

professor at IIT formerly at IMF who

says that the calculations behind macron

calling this early election could be one

that in the process RN that is Marine

leens party that will fall apart and

number two that rightwing gets a

majority right because she may not get a

full majority but there are other

right-wing parties npf for example the

current president of npf for example

said that he's he's happy to have an

alliance with RN although his party has

denied it his party has turned it down

and his party has expelled him so that

tamasha is going on there as well so so

macron might think that this will go on

there will be many contradictions and

this Alliance even if it comes up the

rightwing alliance this will this will

collapse under the weight of its own

contradictions 2027 until 2027 nobody

can remove him as president now while

macron is making his calculations Marine

Le pen is also carrying out some some

corrections on the move and those

Corrections on the move are what is

called as D demonization of her

rightwing right-wing politics so take

out anything that looks too

divisive because because this is also

getting a lot of people exercised on

16th of June nearly a quarter million

people came out in protest against

right-wing politics now those are things

that worry her so she's she is cleaning

up her act to the that an ideological

party can clear up its act she's not not

moving to the center she just take

taking out some of the extreme fringes

from her party so first of all she says

that if if her party gets a majority

they will not call for macron to resign

they will they will engage in what is

called cohabitation that's what happened

between jospin and Jack sharak between

1997 and 2002 that's what she's talking

about then she says and I quote from her

I am respectful of Institutions I do not

call for institutional chaos they will

simply be cohabitation then npf that is

the other the

older right-wing party I spoke to you

about those were the that is the

conventional right in Fr French Politics

the French politics has been sharply

divided left and right in fact macron

created an exception when he built a a

Centrist party the only other period of

centuries rule in France before that was

1974 onwards for one term when Valerie

jar I hope I pronounced this right but

this is these are French names so I

should be forgiven some struggle with my

pronunciations but you know who I'm

talking about see the spelling also he

ran he ran a one term Centrist

government that was 1974 onwards that

was 50 years ago macron brought in

another Centrist government otherwise

the French politics is quite clearly

divided on the Left Right pattern

however nobody on the right has been as

right as Marine lien's party to sum up

the rn rn the party that Marine lipen

has now is of the extreme right now but

Extreme right in the 21st with the 21st

century characteristics it's moved far

away from what her father founded in

1972 where it was called National front

for French unit that had as I told you

earlier nationalists anti-communist

Algerian War veterans monarchists etc

etc etc and it is after she started even

while her father was around she started

pushing towards some bit of cleanup that

1997 onwards the party started fting the

party started finding some traction and

you can see that in election results

Marine Leen she contested for elections

in 2012 she got 177 .9% of the vote so

did not make it to the second round

presidential election also has two

rounds right but 2017 she got 33% vote

second round 2022 40% vote second round

so that means she came very close to a

situation where people will see her as a

likely future president and that's how

her party has been rising in popularity

in Parliament also her party from seven

seats in a house of 5 577 has risen to

88 today it has 88 seats today macron's

party has 169 seats as you can see it's

way below the majority Mark but as I

told you earlier in French parliament

coalitions are made as is the case in

most European parliaments because that's

the kind of system they've set up after

the second world war to avoid brute

majorities her party has generally be

been seen as Putin friendly they also

took some donations or contributions to

one of the Russian Banks but again she's

cleaning up her act there she's also

added some environmentalism and feminism

to her new ideology however macron still

thinks that he's made a good move that

that he was sliding his party was

sliding and his Centrist politics was

sliding so if he had to take a hit he

better take a hit now when his

presidency is secure right now I'm not

sure his party people fully appreciate

that including his prime minister and I

read conflicting accounts of this but

the fact is that he has protected his

presidency risked sacrificing his

government and there's a quote from him

in a press conference that should sum up

his state of mind and what he's after he

said and I quote I hope that when the

time comes men and women of Goodwill who

who have been able to say no to extremes

will all come

together and they will put themselves in

a position to build a shared sincere

project that is useful to the country

once again the situation we have is the

left is on one side the old right is on

one side a new right has emerged so the

old old right of sarosi and Ja sharak

that is on one side a new right has

emerged and that's how in a between a

new right and a new still a new Centrist

politics is this contest being held all

I'd say in conclusion is that

fascinating though it is and I know that

there'll be a lot of coverage on this

and we will watch it carefully because

France is so important for us as I told

you as I told you earlier but whatever

happens as far as French policy towards

India is concerned or as far as India

France relations are concerned I don't

see any substantive changes and not just

because because macron will still be

around for almost 3 years from now not

just that it is because the French

Indian connection is much more solid and

quite immune to domestic politics in

either country

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