TESLA Stock - Has TSLA Turned Bearish?

Summary

In this Tesla update video, the speaker analyzes the stock's performance, discussing the current market trends and potential scenarios. They highlight a brief recovery after a significant drop and explain concerns regarding Tesla’s price movement within a rising channel. Despite some bearish signs, including a loss of key support levels, the speaker remains optimistic about the long-term outlook. They speculate on the possibility of a drop to $300, suggesting it could set up a bullish pattern in the future. The video includes technical analysis, trading strategies, and advice for short-term traders and long-term investors.

Takeaways

• 😀 Tesla closed the day down 1%, recovering from a 3% drop earlier, but still showing signs of concern due to a rising channel.
• 😀 A significant gap up, ideally above 344, is needed to maintain the bullish momentum and avoid falling out of the rising channel.
• 😀 The stock has struggled with resistance around 350, and there's bearish divergence on the daily chart, signaling potential downside.
• 😀 The MACD is trending downward, which indicates weakening momentum despite the recent rally.
• 😀 Short-term downside risk exists unless the stock breaks above the 350-352 range. If this doesn't happen, the bearish outlook remains.
• 😀 The overall long-term outlook for Tesla is still positive, and a potential drop to the 300 level could provide a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.
• 😀 The speaker is confident that Tesla will eventually retest the 300 level to revisit liquidity that was previously broken without a true retest.
• 😀 A possible cup-and-handle pattern or a large bull flag is forming, which could lead to a significant breakout in the future if the stock finds support.
• 😀 The speaker is actively trading Tesla, having exited positions at resistance levels and re-entered near support at 336, seeing limited downside at this level.
• 😀 A bearish weekly candle from the previous week is concerning, and if this week also closes red, it could indicate further downside risk in the near term.
• 😀 The key level to watch is 350-352 for bulls. If Tesla breaks above and holds this range, the bullish thesis will regain strength.

Q & A

What is the current situation with Tesla's stock price based on the analysis in the video?

Tesla's stock was down by 1% on the day, recovering from a 3% dip earlier. Despite this recovery, there are concerns about its performance in the short term, with challenges such as losing key price levels like $350 and the 8 exponential moving average.

What is the significance of a gap up in Tesla's stock price?

A gap up is crucial because Tesla is in a rising channel. If the stock doesn't show a significant upward move to start the day, it could fall out of the channel, which could signal further downside. A gap up to at least $344 is considered necessary to maintain the rising channel.

What are some of the bearish signs that the video identifies for Tesla's stock?

The bearish signs include a bearish divergence on the daily chart, a potential bearish crossover in the MACD, the loss of the 350 level, and Tesla's inability to hold the 8 exponential moving average. These indicators suggest weakness in the stock's short-term momentum.

What does the speaker think about Tesla's long-term outlook?

The speaker remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term outlook, even if the stock experiences short-term volatility. The speaker suggests that Tesla could potentially retest the $300 range, but views that as a bullish setup for the stock's future growth.

What pattern is the speaker anticipating for Tesla's stock, and what does it imply?

The speaker anticipates a potential cup and handle or bull flag pattern in the longer term. This would imply a period of consolidation, followed by a breakout to the upside, which could lead to a significant price move higher, potentially reaching the $400s.

How does the speaker use Fibonacci levels in their analysis?

The speaker references Fibonacci levels to identify key support zones. Specifically, the 0.5 Fibonacci level aligns with a significant support zone, and the 0.618 level suggests that a worst-case scenario for Tesla could see a drop to around $280, but they view this as a good accumulation zone.

What are the key resistance and support levels for Tesla's stock in the short term?

Key resistance levels are identified around $350 to $352. The speaker suggests that if Tesla fails to break above these levels and hold, it could indicate a bearish trend. Key support levels include the $336 zone, which the speaker considers a solid area to re-enter the stock, and the $300 range for long-term potential.

Why does the speaker mention the possibility of a sell-the-news event?

The speaker acknowledges that there might be a sell-the-news event related to Tesla's upcoming developments, such as the robo-taxi news. This could cause a sharp decline in the stock price, even if the longer-term outlook remains positive.

What does the speaker say about trading Tesla stock in the short term?

The speaker is cautious about short-term trading and emphasizes the need for a solid recovery above the $350 level to remain bullish. Despite the short-term concerns, they mention that they are currently long on Tesla stock and have made profitable trades based on their analysis.

How does the weekly chart factor into the analysis of Tesla's stock?

The weekly chart shows a bearish-looking candle from the previous week, which raises concerns about Tesla's performance if this week also closes negatively. A red close this week would add weight to the bearish outlook and suggest further downside in the coming weeks.