«Мы даем Путину последний шанс». Интервью с главой МИД Польши на Дожде

Summary

In this interview, Mr. Sikorski discusses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the role of European and American alliances, and Russia’s stance on peace negotiations. He highlights Ukraine's willingness for ceasefire talks, yet expresses doubts about Putin's genuine interest in peace. The conversation also delves into the potential consequences if talks fail, including tougher sanctions. Sikorski reflects on the possibility of European military presence in Ukraine and critiques Russia’s role in hybrid warfare. The discussion further touches on the need for European defense initiatives and Poland’s proactive response to Russian actions.

Takeaways

• 😀 The European partners of Ukraine agreed to delay new sanctions against Russia due to upcoming peace talks in Istanbul.
• 😀 Ukrainian leadership has agreed to direct negotiations with Russia after over a month of ceasefire, though skepticism remains regarding Russia's true intentions.
• 😀 Putin may not be keen on the ceasefire, as he sees the war as a means to maintain power and justify domestic repression.
• 😀 If negotiations fail, there is strong support in the U.S. Senate for harsher sanctions on Russia and secondary sanctions on those aiding Russia's evasion of sanctions.
• 😀 The VMR+ format, involving key European nations, is considering sending a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine, contingent on a ceasefire agreement.
• 😀 Europe and the U.S. are providing Russia with a final chance for de-escalation, with stronger efforts planned if Russia rejects it.
• 😀 Ukraine’s success in the war depends on how victory is defined, with historical examples showing different factors that could lead to an outcome.
• 😀 European countries are discussing the potential creation of joint defense initiatives, such as rapid response forces and collaboration on defense procurement.
• 😀 There is a debate over the creation of a European army, with the idea of a unified military force being rejected, but more collaborative defense projects being pursued.
• 😀 Europe's military strength, when mobilized and combined with NATO support, is seen as overwhelming compared to Russia's resources.
• 😀 The closure of Russian consulates in Poland is part of a broader effort to counteract Russian espionage and hybrid warfare, with evidence of Russian involvement in sabotage on Polish soil.

Q & A

What is the significance of the European partners of Ukraine postponing the introduction of new sanctions against Russia?

The delay in imposing new sanctions indicates a potential shift towards diplomacy, as European partners are awaiting the commencement of peace negotiations in Istanbul, which could lead to a de-escalation of the conflict.

Do you believe the peace talks in Istanbul will take place?

The outcome of the negotiations depends on Russia's leadership. Ukraine has agreed to ceasefire and direct talks, but Russia’s true intent remains uncertain, with concerns about whether Russia genuinely wants to end the war or simply seeks to justify its initial goals.

What role does President Putin's attitude towards the ceasefire play in the negotiations?

Putin seems to have little interest in a ceasefire, as it could undermine the internal discipline of the Russian military and weaken the justification for his regime's actions. He views war as a tool to maintain power, rather than as a concern for Russia’s economy or international relations.

What would happen if the negotiations fail to reach an agreement?

If the negotiations fail, the U.S. Congress, particularly Senate Republicans, has proposed a law that would enforce harsh sanctions not just on Russia but also on entities assisting Russia in evading sanctions. This represents a shift towards applying pressure on the aggressor.

How might Europe contribute to the situation, according to the interviewee?

Europe could play a pivotal role through sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine or applying effective sanctions. They are also considering joint military missions with the potential to deploy peacekeepers once a ceasefire agreement is reached.

What actions are being discussed regarding the potential sending of European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine?

The European coalition is discussing the possibility of sending a mission to Ukraine, contingent on a ceasefire agreement, which would take on a protective role to ensure stability and prevent further escalation.

What is the likelihood of European military intervention in Ukraine if a ceasefire is not achieved?

The interviewee believes that Europe, alongside the U.S., is offering Putin one last chance to de-escalate. If this opportunity is rejected, the West will intensify efforts to make it harder for Russia to continue the war while further assisting Ukraine.

What factors could contribute to Ukraine winning the war, as mentioned in the interview?

The outcome of the war depends on various factors, such as resources, military strategy, and external support. Historical examples show that wars can end in different ways, such as military defeat or exhaustion of resources.

What is the potential for creating a European army, and what does the interviewee think about this idea?

While the idea of a European army is not realistic in the sense of merging national armies into one, the interviewee supports the development of collaborative defense initiatives within the EU, including joint rapid-response forces, shared defense technologies, and enhanced military mobility.

How did Europe react to Russia’s actions in Poland, specifically regarding the closure of the Russian consulate in Krakow?

The closure of the Russian consulate was a response to a series of aggressive acts by Russia, including the involvement of Russian military intelligence (GRU) in orchestrating attacks in Poland. The message was clear: if Russia continues with such actions, further consequences will follow.