BITCOIN: WATCH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
Summary
TLDRThis video discusses the significance of the upcoming FOMC event and CPI release on Bitcoin's trajectory. The presenter analyzes Bitcoin's price action, emphasizing key resistance levels and potential bullish scenarios, while cautioning about possible market volatility. They delve into labor market data, revealing a concerning shift towards part-time employment, hinting at economic weakness. The impact of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly the inflow of funds, is highlighted, contrasting this with the potential for a correction in Ethereum post-ETF approval. The video concludes with a skeptical note on political promises regarding crypto, advocating for a Republican administration viewed as more crypto-friendly.
Takeaways
- 📈 The speaker is very bullish on Bitcoin and believes it will break towards the upside, despite a recent rejection from the 71.4k level.
- 📊 The speaker discusses the importance of the FOMC event and the CPI data, which are both happening on the same day and could significantly impact Bitcoin's volatility.
- 💡 The speaker suggests that a break above 72k with confirmation is needed for Bitcoin to continue its bullish trend, while a drop to 64k must hold as support to avoid a double top formation.
- 🌐 The speaker mentions that Canada and the Eurozone have cut interest rates, leading to speculation that the US might follow suit, but doubts this due to the difference in inflation rates.
- 📉 The labor market is not as strong as it seems, with a significant increase in part-time jobs compared to full-time employment, indicating economic weakness.
- 🏦 The speaker points out that foreign-born individuals are taking more jobs than native-born Americans, which could lead to less capital being injected into the economy.
- 📉 The speaker highlights that since 2018, no jobs have been added for native-born Americans on average, which is a concerning economic indicator.
- 💰 The speaker talks about Bitcoin ETFs and how they are buying up large amounts of Bitcoin, which could lead to ETF issuers holding a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply in the future.
- 🚀 The speaker predicts that Ethereum might rally before the launch of its ETF but warns of a potential correction afterward due to selling pressure from Grayscale.
- 🏠 The speaker mentions high prices for everyday items like milk and houses, suggesting an economic bubble that could lead to a collapse.
- 🗣️ The speaker advises viewers to take political promises regarding cryptocurrencies with caution, citing President Trump's changing stance on TikTok as an example.
Q & A
What significant events are expected to impact Bitcoin this week according to the video?
-The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the significant events that are expected to impact Bitcoin this week.
What is the current bearish sentiment on Bitcoin and what could change it?
-The bearish sentiment is based on the price rejection at the 71.4k level. A break above 72k with confirmation or a bullish trend continuation could change this sentiment.
What is the importance of the 64k support level for Bitcoin?
-The 64k level is crucial as it represents the support of a large ascending channel and the ascending triangle pattern. A drop below this level could indicate a double top formation, which is bearish.
How does the speaker view the labor market based on the non-farm employment data?
-The speaker views the labor market as not doing very well, despite high employment numbers, due to a significant increase in part-time jobs and a decrease in full-time jobs.
What is the speaker's opinion on the potential interest rate cut by the US during the FOMC event?
-The speaker does not expect an interest rate cut by the US during the FOMC event, as the US inflation rate is still high compared to Canada and the Euro Zone.
Why does the speaker believe that the labor market situation is not accurately reflected in the stock market?
-The speaker believes that the stock market does not accurately reflect the labor market because the increase in part-time jobs and the decrease in full-time jobs indicate economic weakness, not strength.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETFs and their inflows for the Bitcoin market?
-The Bitcoin ETFs are significant because they are buying up large amounts of Bitcoin daily, which could potentially lead to them holding a substantial percentage of the overall Bitcoin supply.
What is the speaker's projection for Ethereum after the ETF approval?
-The speaker projects that Ethereum will rally until the ETF approval and experience significant volatility on the launch day, after which they expect a correction due to selling pressure from Grayscale.
How does the speaker view the current state of the US economy based on the labor market and inflation?
-The speaker views the US economy as potentially heading towards stagflation or recession, citing the high number of part-time jobs, the lack of full-time job growth for native-born Americans, and high inflation.
What is the speaker's advice regarding political promises related to cryptocurrency?
-The speaker advises viewers to take political promises related to cryptocurrency, or anything else, with a pinch of salt, citing the example of President Trump's changing stance on TikTok.
What is the speaker's final note on the expected content for the week?
-The speaker notes that the week's content will be extensive, with live streams and various videos, and thanks the viewers for watching until the end.
Outlines
📈 Bitcoin's Upcoming Week and Market Analysis
The speaker discusses the significance of the upcoming week for Bitcoin, focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on the same day. They provide an analysis of Bitcoin's price action, noting a rejection at the $71.4k level but expressing a bullish outlook, anticipating a potential break towards the upside. The speaker also mentions the non-farm employment data, labor market conditions, and the impact of Bitcoin ETFs. They emphasize the importance of watching the video in full to understand 10 different bullish charts for Bitcoin and to be prepared for various market scenarios, including a possible double top formation if the support at $64k fails.
📊 Labor Market Insights and Economic Concerns
This paragraph delves into the labor market, highlighting a shift from full-time to part-time employment as an indicator of economic strain. The speaker points out that full-time jobs have decreased while part-time jobs have surged, suggesting that people are taking on multiple jobs to make ends meet. They also discuss the impact of foreign-born individuals on the job market, noting that they often accept lower wages, which can lead to less capital being available for economic circulation. The speaker expresses concern over the potential for stagflation and recession, referencing the high price of everyday items like milk and housing as indicators of economic instability.
💼 Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum's Future Prospects
The speaker talks about the role of Bitcoin ETF issuers in the market, noting significant inflows into Bitcoin and the potential for these ETFs to hold a substantial portion of the Bitcoin supply in the future. They contrast this with Ethereum, predicting a different market reaction due to the upcoming approval of Ethereum ETFs. The speaker anticipates a rally leading up to the launch, followed by significant volatility and a possible correction, as they expect Grayscale to sell Ethereum holdings post-launch. They caution viewers about the potential for a sell-off from Grayscale and advise caution in the Ethereum market.
🏛 Political Impact on Crypto and Final Thoughts
In the final paragraph, the speaker touches on political promises, specifically mentioning President Trump's inconsistent stance on crypto and TikTok, as an example of how political promises should be taken with skepticism. They express a preference for a Republican administration for its perceived friendliness towards crypto, contrasting it with a Democratic administration. The speaker concludes by thanking the viewers for watching the extensive video and promises exciting content for the week ahead.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Bitcoin
💡FOMC
💡CPI
💡Non-farm Employment Data
💡Bollinger Bands
💡Ascending Channel
💡Double Top
💡Bitcoin ETFs
💡Ethereum
💡Grayscale
💡Stagflation
Highlights
This week is crucial for Bitcoin due to the FOMC event and CPI announcement on the same day.
Bitcoin's price was rejected from the 71.4k level but a bullish trend is expected to break towards the upside.
A detailed analysis of Bitcoin's potential movements with 10 different bullish charts is provided.
The importance of breaking above the 72k level for a conservative bullish outlook is discussed.
Market volatility is anticipated to increase significantly with the opening of the market on Monday.
A potential rejection to 64k is mentioned, with an emphasis on the support level of the ascending channel.
The risk of forming a double top in Bitcoin's price if the ascending triangle does not hold is highlighted.
CPI data and the FOMC event are expected to influence market sentiment and Bitcoin's direction.
Speculations about the US following Canada and the Euro Zone in cutting interest rates are addressed.
The discrepancy between high employment numbers and the quality of jobs, particularly full-time vs. part-time, is analyzed.
The impact of part-time jobs on the economy and the potential for stagflation or recession is discussed.
Bitcoin ETFs are highlighted as a significant factor in Bitcoin's price stability and growth.
The potential for Ethereum to rally before and experience volatility after its ETF approval is predicted.
Concerns about Grayscale's large holdings in Ethereum and the potential selling pressure post-ETF approval are raised.
A warning is issued to be cautious of Ethereum's potential correction after the ETF launch.
President Trump's statements about crypto and their potential impact on the market are critiqued.
The video concludes with a reminder to take political promises with caution and a personal preference for a Republican administration for crypto.
Transcripts
guys and girls this week is going to be
incredibly important for Bitcoin as we
have the fomc event and the CPI in fact
on the same exact day so watch until the
end I'll be going through Bitcoin
analysis um and we'll go through CPI
fomc non-farm employment data which was
marketed as something incredible but
that's really not the case the labor
market is not doing very good at all and
then finally I'll go into the Bitcoin
ETFs and my projection for what could
happen with ethereum sit back relax
enjoy if you wish to do so you can skip
Parts in the time stamps but I would
definitely recommend watching until the
end to get the full value so looking at
the price of Bitcoin on the 12h hourly
unfortunately we got rejected from the
71.4k level but eventually I really do
believe that Bitcoin is going to break
towards the upside if you are a bear at
this current moment in time after you
finish watching this video go to the
card at the top right hand section in
fact you can create a new tab and save
the video for the time being because I
show you 10 different charts that makes
me super bullish for Bitcoin and
essentially can convince anyone that
Bitcoin is going to go higher I'll just
say that but you can uh go ahead and
watch the video later on so 71.4 is the
point to break if you're a bit more
conservative then you want a break at
the 72k level uh on the 4day time frame
because that is the upper Ballinger band
we got rejected that's okay uh the
weekend is not too volatile usually
happens but going into tomorrow Monday
Market open Bitcoin will become much
much much more volatile and the volume
that comes in whether it's going to be
positive or negative that will
essentially set the mood for Bitcoin if
the trend can continue bullish amazing
but if not then a rejection to 64 is
possible um but I don't think Bitcoin
will go below 64 in a very long amount
of time because it is the support level
of this huge parallel ascending channel
that has been for ing uh ever since the
bottom of the bar market up to uh March
of this year so that would you know 64
would come down to the support now
support of this Channel and we would
also keep in within this ascending
triangle because if this ascending
triangle does not hold then then things
change then things eventually change
because we would be forming a double top
I hope it doesn't happen my indicators
and oscillators are telling me that that
will hopefully not happen but we need to
be prepared for any scenario ESS if we
want Bitcoin to continue in a bullish
way then we want to break above 72 with
a confirmation if we see a drop to 64 we
need to pray to God that it holds
because if not then Bitcoin would be
creating a double top but don't worry
I'm still all in I'm still in my bullish
bias and we'll see if Bitcoin starts
forming a double top then we can
re-evaluate a couple of things so now
let's jump into the CPI data and the
fomc which will both be taking place on
the same exact day and why are people so
hyped up about this event in particular
well it's because Canada uh the first G7
country to do so cut their interest
rates by 25 basis points for the first
time in a year and after Canada Euro
zone so the entirety of Europe
essentially they also reduced their
interest rates by 25 basis points and
people are now speculating that the US
will also do the same thing during this
fomc event but I don't think that will
be the case simply because Canada had an
inflation data of 1.6% Euro Zone had an
inflation data of 2.9% very close to
their 2% Target whereas the US still has
a long way to go as we sit at 3.6% but
things can change that's why it's
important because we have the CPI data
right before fomc if the inflation rate
shocks everyone then we could even get a
cut this week which would in my opinion
dump the markets because if we go back
in history in a time of economic
uncertainty at least among people maybe
not in the stock market when you have a
huge fed pivot then you enter into a
recession at least in the stock market
term so it would not be too great but my
expectation is that they will cut either
July or September but we'll find out
when we stream the fomc on the channel
apart from uh apart from inflation data
though the FED also takes a look at the
labor market which was projected to be
super super strong on CNBC and Bloomberg
forgive me Bloomberg uh but that's
really not the case because when we dive
into the data even though we have
massive amounts of employment according
to the official data released that is
not the case when we dive deep into it
because yes we may have high employment
but what is the what is that employment
composed of um is it from full-time or
part-time essentially you want full-time
you want full-time employees because
people make better salaries and they're
probably in a good financial position
whereas if people take part-time jobs
and if they're taking two or more at the
same time which is by the way at an
all-time high it indicates that people
don't have enough money so they're
trying to do those part-time jobs as
much as possible so that they can
provide for their families when we look
into this chart full-time employment
lost
625,000 jobs whereas part-time increased
so you're having a transfer not let
alone transfer but you're having an
excess a deficit of full-time employment
compared to part-time when we look into
this chart it's even worse you can see
that part-time employment is huge
whereas full-time employment is is in
the negative um and that's just showing
you how bad the economy really is uh and
to see the economy you don't you
shouldn't look at the the price of the
S&P because that's not an accurate
reflection this is an accurate
reflection and let alone the part-time
and full-time employment situation the
actual people taking those jobs are
mostly native born uh mostly foreign
born not native born in fact Americans
are losing jobs compared to the foreign
born individuals and why is it important
because overall uh foreign born
individuals usually uh take less pay
compared to the native born Americans or
you know this law applies to every
everywhere in the world uh it's showing
you that uh companies Etc they're
choosing foreign born for cheap cheaper
labor and if you're choosing cheaper
labor then the families they have less
amount of capital to inject into the
economy and you're leading yourself into
a huge stagflation SL uh recession so
it's not looking good in fact since
2018 zero jobs for non uh for non for
native born Americans have been added
overall in average zero that's terrible
uh from where I'm standing and that
explains why half of Americans believe
that the stock market has been declining
over the past year even though that it's
been hitting alltime high after alltime
high and 72% of Americans think that
inflation is increasing whereas again
the data suggests that it's been falling
pretty rapidly over the past 12 months
but with that said we can go into the
Bitcoin ETFs um I do need to mention
this a gallon of milk was spotted to be
selling for $27 I mean what the hell uh
apart from milk we're seeing homes go
for like 500k and there was one that was
literally shed constructed in 1951
selling for
$500,000 I don't get it that
delinquencies are at an all-time high
how are people going to be paying for
these things they won't and that's just
why I really believe that we are heading
into a massive collapse so yeah it won't
be good it won't be good but what is
good what we can still count on is the
Bitcoin ETF issuers buying up huge
chunks of Bitcoin every single day in
fact last week we had the second highest
inflow ever uh for Bitcoin even though
that we were just consolidating and not
a major move has been happening 8 $186
million in just one day and now that
iBot holds 300,000 Bitcoin in if we keep
going like this in two years the ETF
issuers will have like 10% of the
overall Bitcoin Supply which is mad to
think about uh and if we go to ethereum
I think ethereum will act very
differently compared to bitcoin because
we will be getting the approval sometime
this month or early in July and once
that happens I think ethereum will
continue rallying into it and on the day
of the launch we will have significant
volatility that's when I'm personally
closing my long position on ethereum but
because grayscale holds over1 billion
worth of ethereum I'm just scared about
this number because I really don't think
that ethereum is going to be performing
better than the Bitcoin ETFs they're
expecting on10th of the overall
performance in terms of inflows so yes
grayscale will be selling once again
just like Bitcoin but the amount of
inflows that we'll be seeing from other
ETF issuers will not be able to come
compensate the amount of selling
pressure that will be coming from uh
grayscale uh specifically for ethereum
so I think that's going to be the
difference with Bitcoin so after we see
the launch I think ethereum will
continue to fall uh until gray scale
starts getting inflows in and how long
would that take nobody knows so I think
ethereum is due for a huge correction
after we get the launches so do be
careful of course it's my opinion only
always do your own research I'm just
worried about how much uh ethereum
grayscale holds and to end off this
video uh on Friday president Trump said
that he was the crypto president at the
San Francisco Tech fundraiser now guys
and girls please please please take any
political candidates presidential
candidates um promises for Bitcoin
crypto or anything in general with a
pinch of salt and this is exactly my
proof because he also said that he'll
never ban Tik Tok if he becomes
president if you remember president
Trump was the number one person
advocating for a Tik Tok ban uh so you
know I'm just seeing a huge 180 degree
flips on many things here and I think
it's to get votes essentially but you
know I I'm still voting for him or I'm
not voting for him because I'm not
American but I'm still uh I still hope
he wins because a republican
Administration will definitely be better
for crypto compared to a democratic
Administration in office let's see what
happens uh I just wanted to point that
out but guys and girls you've been
absolutely fantastic for for watching
until the end I know it's been an
extensive video but I promise you this
week's content will be through the roof
we'll go live we'll post different
videos uh so I hope you enjoy them uh as
the week goes by but guys and girls
thank you so much for tuning in have a
great day and I'll be seeing you all
very shortly bye-bye
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