The Rise of the European Far-Right || Peter Zeihan

Summary

Peter Z discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to two main factors. Firstly, Europe's electoral systems, designed post-World War II to be inclusive, allow for a diversity of parties, including those from the extremes. Secondly, demographic changes, particularly in countries like Italy and Germany, have led to an aging population with fewer children, resulting in a more conservative and reactionary political landscape. As the last generation born during more normal times reaches retirement age, the lack of a younger, more liberal generation has contributed to the shift towards conservative politics, impacting economic policies and the future of the Euro.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ European political systems are designed to be inclusive, allowing for a diversity of parties to be represented in government, which can include far-right factions.
• 🌍 The electoral systems in Europe are different from the U.S., favoring proportional representation where parties gain seats in parliament based on their percentage of votes.
• 👶 Demographic changes, particularly in countries like Italy and Spain, have seen a rapid decline in birth rates, leading to an aging population with fewer young people.
• 👴 As the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics, as older generations tend to be less liberal and more concerned with immediate economic stability.
• 🇮🇹 Italy is experiencing a significant demographic shift with an aging population, which has implications for its political landscape and the rise of conservative parties.
• 💶 The common currency in Europe, the Euro, was established during a period of economic stability and surplus, but the retirement of the working-age population could pose challenges to its future.
• 🏦 The financial stability of the Euro is linked to the economic health of its member countries, and as the population ages, there may be less financial flexibility to support it.
• 👨‍🦳 The aging population in Europe, particularly in Germany, could lead to increased concerns about inflation and economic stability as retirees become the majority.
• 🌐 The rise of far-right parties in Europe is not accidental but a result of the electoral system design and demographic changes that have occurred over the past decades.
• 🚂 The speaker suggests that the current political and economic climate in Europe may not be sustainable in the long term, hinting at potential future challenges.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?

The main topic discussed in the video script is the rise of far-right political parties in Europe and the factors contributing to this trend.

How does the speaker describe the electoral systems in the United States and Europe?

The speaker describes the U.S. electoral system as a 'first-past-the-post' system with single-member districts, which encourages political groups to appeal to the largest number of individuals. In contrast, European electoral systems, designed post-world wars, are more inclusive, allowing parties to gain seats proportional to their vote share, thus accommodating a wider range of political views.

What is the significance of the speaker mentioning different electoral systems in the context of far-right parties' rise?

The significance is that the proportional representation system in Europe allows smaller parties, including those with far-right ideologies, to gain parliamentary seats and potentially influence government formation, which might not be as feasible under the U.S. system.

What demographic factors contribute to the rise of conservative politics in Europe according to the script?

The script suggests that rapid industrialization and urbanization post-World War II, along with significantly reduced birth rates, have led to an aging population. This demographic shift, with fewer economically pragmatic individuals and a lack of liberal youth influence, contributes to more conservative and reactionary politics.

How does the aging population in Europe impact the political landscape?

The aging population, with fewer young and middle-aged moderates, tends to lean more conservative and reactionary. This demographic change can result in the rise of far-right parties and a shift towards more conservative politics.

What is the role of the common currency in the European economic system?

The common currency, the Euro, requires a balanced economic system among the member countries. The script suggests that the financial stability and wiggle room during the post-Cold War period were partly due to a large, financially secure, middle-aged population that hadn't yet retired.

Why might the retirement of the middle-aged population pose a challenge for the Euro?

The retirement of this population reduces the tax base and financial stability that supported the Euro. As these individuals become more concerned about their own economic security in retirement, there may be less support for the currency and potentially more focus on inflation concerns.

What does the speaker suggest about the future of the Euro in the next 10 years?

The speaker suggests that within the next 10 years, as the working-age population retires, there may be less hope for the Euro due to increased inflation concerns and a reduced financial buffer.

How does the speaker characterize the political climate in Italy in relation to the rise of far-right parties?

The speaker characterizes Italy as having one of the most advanced cases of far-right party rise, with a significant aging population and a political system that has been influenced by this demographic shift.

What other European countries are mentioned as experiencing similar demographic and political trends as Italy?

Germany, Portugal, Austria, the Netherlands, and Poland are mentioned as countries that are aging at a similar rate and may experience similar conservative political shifts.

What is the speaker's final message regarding the Euro and the European political climate?

The speaker's final message is a recommendation to visit Europe and make the most of the Euro while it still exists, implying that the political and economic landscape may change significantly in the coming years.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ European Politics and Electoral Systems

In this paragraph, Peter Z discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to the continent's electoral systems which are designed to be inclusive and allow for a diversity of political parties, including those from the extremes. He explains that unlike the U.S.'s first-past-the-post system, European systems are proportional, meaning parties gain seats in Parliament based on the percentage of votes they receive. This system is a result of post-WWII efforts to create a more inclusive society and has led to a broader range of political representation. Peter also touches on demographic factors contributing to the shift towards conservative politics, such as the rapid urbanization and industrialization post-WWII leading to a significant drop in birth rates and an aging population.

05:00

👴 Aging Population and Its Impact on Politics

The second paragraph delves into the demographic changes in Europe, particularly focusing on the aging population and its effects on political ideologies. Peter Z explains that as the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics, especially in countries like Italy and Germany. He points out that the lack of younger generations to balance the views of the older population leads to a more economically pragmatic and conservative approach to governance. Additionally, he discusses the implications of an aging population on the European common currency, suggesting that as the financially stable middle-aged population retires, the economic stability that supported the Euro may falter, potentially leading to challenges for the currency in the coming years.

Keywords

💡European politics

European politics refers to the political landscape and processes within European countries. The video discusses the rise of far-right parties across Europe, which is a significant aspect of contemporary European politics. The speaker mentions that these parties can range from conservative to Nazi ideologies, and their success in electoral competitions is a key concern in the current political climate.

💡Electoral system

An electoral system is the set of procedures used to choose representatives in a political process. The video explains that the U.S. uses a first-past-the-post system with single-member districts, whereas most European countries have proportional representation, which allows for a more diverse range of parties to be represented in government. This system is crucial to understanding the political diversity and the rise of far-right parties in Europe.

💡Farri parties

Farri parties, a colloquial term possibly referring to far-right political parties, are political groups with ideologies that can range from conservative to extremist. The video discusses their increasing influence and electoral success in Europe, which is tied to the continent's electoral systems and demographic changes.

💡Proportional representation

Proportional representation is an electoral system where political parties gain seats in proportion to the number of votes they receive. The video highlights how this system, used in many European countries, allows for a wider range of political parties, including those from the extremes, to gain representation in government, contributing to the diversity of the political landscape.

💡Demographic changes

Demographic changes refer to shifts in population characteristics such as age, birth rate, and population density. The video connects demographic shifts, particularly aging populations and low birth rates, to the rise of conservative and reactionary politics in Europe. It suggests that an aging population without a younger, more liberal demographic to balance it can lead to more conservative political attitudes.

💡Urbanization and industrialization

Urbanization is the process of migration from rural to urban areas, and industrialization is the transition to a society and economy dominated by industry. The video notes that countries like Spain and Italy urbanized and industrialized later than others, leading to a rapid decline in birth rates and an aging population, which in turn affects the political landscape.

💡Replacement rate

The replacement rate, also known as the fertility rate, is the average number of children born to each woman that would be needed for a population to replace itself without migration. The video points out that many European countries have birth rates below the replacement rate, leading to long-term demographic imbalances and political implications.

💡Social conservatism

Social conservatism is a political ideology that favors traditional values and institutions. The video suggests that as Europe's population ages, there is a shift towards social conservatism, with older generations tending to be more reactionary and less open to progressive policies.

💡Common currency

A common currency refers to a single system of money used by multiple countries, such as the Euro used by many EU member states. The video discusses how the common currency requires a balanced economic system and how demographic changes and the aging population might affect the stability and future of the Euro.

💡Economic development

Economic development refers to the process of improving the economic well-being and quality of life of a population. The video implies that an aging population may be less concerned with economic development and more focused on immediate, personal economic concerns, such as affordable public services.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video suggests that an aging population, particularly in Germany, may become more concerned about inflation as they enter retirement, which could have significant implications for economic policy and the Euro.

Highlights

The speaker, Peter Z, discusses the rise of far-right parties in Europe, attributing it to various factors including different electoral systems and demographic changes.

In the US, a first-past-the-post electoral system encourages political groups to appeal to the largest number of individuals, unlike in Europe.

European electoral systems, designed post-WWII, aim for inclusivity, allowing parties with varying degrees of support to be part of the governing system.

The diversity in European politics includes parties from socialists to neonazis, reflecting a designed electoral system to include fringe groups.

Demographic changes in Europe, particularly a significant drop in birth rates post-WWII, have contributed to an aging population.

The aging population in countries like Italy and Spain has proceeded at a faster rate compared to earlier industrialized nations like Germany and Britain.

A low birth rate over several decades has led to a demographic crisis in Europe, impacting the political landscape.

As the population ages, there is a shift towards more conservative and reactionary politics due to a lack of economically pragmatic and liberal voices.

The speaker predicts a continued rise in conservative and populist politics in Europe due to the aging demographic.

The aging population's focus on immediate concerns like affordable public services over long-term economic development contributes to conservative politics.

The common currency in Europe requires a balanced economic system, which is challenged by the demographic changes and the retirement of the working-age population.

The period from 1990 to 2015 saw a financial surplus due to a large middle-aged population not yet retired, allowing for economic experiments like the common currency.

The retirement of the working-age population that generated capital is predicted to negatively impact the Euro and European economic policies.

The speaker suggests that the next 10 years will see increased inflation concerns in Germany as the working-age population retires.

The speaker ends with a recommendation to visit Europe while the common currency is still viable, hinting at potential future economic instability.

Transcripts

hey everybody Peter Z here coming to you

from Italy's Via de Costa via DEA Costa

excuse me the old Roman Road that went

all the way to Spain uh since I'm

leaving the country tomorrow today we're

going to talk about European politics um

you guys may have noticed that we have

farri parties which based on which

country you're in what your politics are

are anywhere from conservative to

moderate to Nazi you know uh taking

power at least doing very well in any

number of electoral competitions in the

European space uh and in some cases

seizing outright power uh here among

others in

Italy uh there are a couple of reasons

for this the the first one is Almost

Boring and statistical it's because

there's a different electoral system and

a different approach in Europe uh when

the United States recovered from the

Civil War and when the US was created in

the first place there was this idea that

how you Force modernity how you force

moderation is by forcing political

groups to appeal to the largest number

of individuals possible so the United

States has something called a first pass

the post electoral system with single

member districts which is a fancy way of

saying that you vote for a specific

person who's going to represent a

specific group of

people uh that's not how it works in

Europe in Europe most of their electoral

systems were designed in the aftermath

of the world wars in the aftermath of a

series of revolutions and conflicts that

killed millions of people

and so it was perceived as far more

important to instead of catering to the

the vast majority to have a society that

was more inclusive of everybody so

instead of voting for a person you vote

for a party and if that party gets 20%

of the votes they get 20% of the seats

in Parliament and whoever has the most

seats in Parliament then goes on to form

the government uh and in doing this you

allow groups that are maybe not in the

center but can still get a lot of votes

to be part of the governing system and

so most countries in Europe don't have

two parties they've got four or five or

six or 8 or 12 or whatever it happens to

be and so you get a lot more diversity

in the decision-making system a lot more

diversity in the politics of the parties

that make up the system and that means

you're need people from the extremes as

well anywhere from socialists and

communist on the left to reactionaries

and maybe even through neonazis on the

right that's by Design it's not by

accident and so you're always going to

have this element of the election system

uh of the electoral system of the voters

who are willing to support candidates

that other people might find little

distasteful and sometimes they form a

government because they've got enough

support now that's Piece One Piece two

shucker is more

demographic uh when you industrialize

and urbanize you start moving from the

farm into the City and then the farm

kids are free labor in the city kids are

an expense and so as time goes on you

have fewer of them well a good portion

of Europe didn't get serious about the

business of

urbanization and industrialization until

after World War II so whereas the

Germans and the Brits kind of led the

way in that process and their birth rate

has been dropping fairly slowly for a

long period of time in places like Spain

and Italy the process really didn't

start until the latter half of last

century and has proceeded at a much much

much much faster rate well if you got a

birth rate that is less than two

children per women for a decade or two

it's not a big deal but if you do that

for say seven or eight decades all of a

sudden you got a problem and the issue

we have in a lot of Europe is that they

drop below replacement as far back is

the 50s and the 60s and they drop past

1.5 children for woman as far back as

the 70s and the 80s and you play that

forward another 50 years and it's not so

much that uh population reconstitution

is impossible it's been impossible for

decades but we're now at the point that

the last people who were born in normal

times are now turning 60 and 70 and

nowhere is that more advanced than here

in Italy so it's not that demographics

when they turn generate a more

conservative population it's that when

when people retire they get a little

crotchety and we're now seeing people

across Europe in vast numbers age past

that point and they didn't have enough

children to generate a more

economically pragmatic population and

since those people don't exist there was

not another generation born below to be

more liberal so if you remove the

liberality of the youth and the

moderation of the middle-aged folks and

all you're left is with

crottin you get more reactionary

politics electoral systems and

ultimately governments it's furthest

along here in Italy coming up a close

second is Germany and I'm sure there's

no one worried about that and after that

you got places like Portugal Austria the

Netherlands and Poland which are aging

to this in a similar rate but from a

slightly younger base so we are going to

see more and more conservative politics

more and more socially conservative

politics more and more populist politics

moving on because if you are

uh turning 70 this year you're really

not concerned about things like social

rights or Economic Development you want

your train ticket to be a half a Euro

and no more oh yeah that reminds me

having something like the common

currency requires a more balanced

economic system and if you look back

demographically at the period we've been

in the post Cold War period we've gone

through a couple interesting phases

because from roughly 1990 until roughly

2015 we saw these people aging but no

one had really hadit retirement yet

which meant they hadn't become

interested in no change yet in fact if

you've got people who are aged 50 to

65 and who don't have kids their income

is huge they're saving loads of money

for retirement the tax base is massive

and the financial wiggle room in that

sort of system is absolutely huge and

that's the same era when the Europeans

decided that hey let's do the common

currency and if you think back at how

insane that sounded at the time you have

industrialized Germany you've got

technocratic Luxembourg you got post

industrial Portugal that's based

entirely on tourism who would ever think

in a normal system that all of those

systems could be under the same currency

Union but when there is a huge amount of

uh Financial less floating around

because of all these middle AG but not

yet retired people you could try a lot

of things and they did one outcome was

the common currency but now a lot of the

people who were generating all that

Capital to give them wiggle room have

moved into Mass retirement and with them

the hopes for the currency go as well uh

and for those of you who are Finance

nerds out there you think the Germans

were obsessed with inflation before most

of their working age population retired

just wait till they're all retirees cuz

that is something something that happens

within the next 10 years when that goes

down there isn't much hope for the Euro

so you know visit while you can make the

most of it and I'll see you on the other

side of the pond take care