The Supply Chain Crisis: No Relief in the Fourth Quarter
Summary
TLDR该视频脚本讨论了2021年第四季度的货物延误和供应短缺问题。Patrick Penfield教授,来自雪城大学Whitman商学院的供应链管理实践教授兼高管教育主任,分享了他对当前全球供应链挑战的看法。他指出,由于需求激增和港口拥堵,第四季度对许多公司来说将是困难的,尤其是在高峰期。零售商尽管提前下单,但商品种类和数量将不如往年。最大的瓶颈是港口,尤其是洛杉矶和长滩的港口,由于疫情影响和劳动力短缺,导致货物积压。消费者可能需要调整期望,提前下单以应对可能的服务延迟。Patrick教授还提出了一些可能的解决方案,如使用较小的港口和增加船只容量,但也提醒了2025年码头工人合同到期可能带来的风险。
Takeaways
- 🚢 2021年第四季度的货物延误和供应短缺问题非常严重,全球供应链受到多方面影响。
- 📈 需求在假日季期间激增,但目前产能无法满足现有需求,导致很多公司面临困难。
- 🎁 尽管零售商提前订货,但消费者可能无法看到通常的货物种类和数量。
- 🌐 港口是物流中最大的瓶颈,尤其是洛杉矶和长滩港口的拥堵问题。
- 🦠 亚洲的德尔塔变种病毒导致低疫苗接种率,进而导致一些国家关闭,加剧了供应链问题。
- 🚧 美国港口无法处理前所未有的需求,导致船只排队等待卸货,造成混乱。
- 📦 即使货物到达港口,也可能因为港口作业效率低下而被延迟运输。
- 🚚 司机短缺和运输工具不足也是导致货物运输受阻的原因之一。
- 📊 需求高涨,但由于供应链问题,企业难以满足市场需求,并且面临价格上涨。
- 💰 生产商将成本上涨转嫁给消费者,消费者需要接受这一现实。
- 🛒 消费者可能需要调整期望,提前下单,以应对年底的供应链混乱。
- 🔑 2022年第一季度可能会有所改善,但2025年码头工人合同到期可能带来新的挑战。
- 🚧 中国新年可能会导致生产放缓,但也可能有公司利用这个时期赶工以满足订单。
- 🚢 需要增加船只数量和航运能力,以及可能考虑使用较小的港口来缓解拥堵。
- 🤝 企业应与货运代理商合作,寻找最佳的货物运输方式,尤其是在第四季度。
Q & A
2021年第四季度的货物延误和供应短缺情况如何?
-根据帕特里克·潘菲尔德教授的分析,2021年第四季度的货物延误和供应短缺情况非常严重,全球供应链面临诸多问题,导致许多公司在高峰季节面临巨大挑战。
为什么第四季度的货物需求会上升?
-第四季度通常是假日季节,消费者对商品的需求会增加,因此零售商和制造商需要提前准备更多的库存来满足市场需求。
零售商是否已经提前订购了假日商品?
-是的,许多零售商已经提前订购了假日商品,但即便如此,由于供应链的问题,商品的多样性和数量可能无法满足消费者的期望。
目前供应链中最大的瓶颈是什么?
-最大的瓶颈是港口,由于亚洲的疫情和低疫苗接种率,许多港口被迫关闭或运营受限,导致船只无法及时卸载货物。
港口的运作问题具体表现在哪些方面?
-港口的运作问题主要表现在船只无法及时卸载货物,以及港口没有足够的能力处理前所未有的货物需求,导致货物积压和延误。
除了港口问题外,还有哪些因素导致供应链受阻?
-除了港口问题外,还有司机短缺、卡车和集装箱不足等因素,这些都限制了货物的运输能力。
需求方面的情况如何?
-需求方面非常高,几乎所有行业都面临着需求上升的情况,但由于供应链问题,企业难以满足这些需求。
价格上升对消费者有什么影响?
-价格上升意味着消费者可能需要支付更高的价格购买商品,许多生产商选择将成本上涨转嫁给消费者。
消费者是否需要调整他们的购物习惯?
-是的,由于供应链问题,消费者可能需要提前下单,做好等待货物的准备,可能无法像以前那样快速获得商品。
供应链问题何时可能得到缓解?
-根据潘菲尔德教授的观点,供应链问题可能在2022年第一季度开始得到缓解,但这还取决于多种因素,包括港口工人的合同问题等。
有哪些可能的解决方案或替代方案来缓解供应链问题?
-可能的解决方案包括使用较小的港口、增加船舶数量、改善集装箱定价以及与货运代理合作寻找最佳的货物运输方式。
Outlines
🚢 全球供应链危机与货物延误
帕特里克·彭菲尔德教授在讨论2021年第四季度的货物延误、供应短缺和价格上涨问题时指出,全球供应链面临重大挑战。他提到,今年几乎所有供应链环节都出现了问题,导致第四季度对许多公司来说将非常困难,尤其是在高峰季节。彭菲尔德教授强调,由于需求激增,现有运力无法满足当前需求,导致货物无法及时到达目的地。他还提到,尽管许多零售商提前下单,但消费者可能无法看到他们习惯的品种和数量。
🌐 物流瓶颈与港口拥堵问题
彭菲尔德教授进一步讨论了物流瓶颈,特别是港口问题。他指出,由于亚洲疫情的爆发和低疫苗接种率,许多国家不得不关闭,导致港口关闭,船只无法卸载货物。这导致了美国港口的货物积压,无法满足前所未有的需求。他还提到了港口的非先进先出(FIFO)问题,即货物到达港口后可能无法按照到达顺序被卸载和运输。此外,司机短缺和运输工具不足也加剧了运输问题。
🛒 消费者需求高涨与价格上升
彭菲尔德教授指出,尽管面临供应链问题,但消费者需求仍然很高。他提到,许多行业都报告了高需求,但企业在满足这些需求方面遇到了困难。此外,价格上升也是一个问题,许多生产商选择将成本上涨转嫁给消费者。他建议消费者提前下单,以避免在节日季末遇到供应问题。
📈 供应链改善的前景与挑战
彭菲尔德教授对供应链问题的未来展望持谨慎乐观态度。他希望在2022年第一季度开始看到一些改善,但也表达了对2025年码头工人合同到期可能引发的潜在问题的担忧。他担心,如果码头工人罢工或减慢工作速度,可能会导致港口再次出现拥堵。他还提到,第一季度通常是需求下降的时期,加上中国新年,可能会给供应链带来一些缓解。他希望看到更多的船只投入运营,以增加运输能力,并降低集装箱价格。
🤝 寻找解决方案与合作伙伴
彭菲尔德教授建议公司寻找创造性的合作伙伴关系和解决方案,以应对当前的拥堵问题。他提到,使用较小的船只和港口可能是一个解决方案,但需要考虑船只的大小和港口的处理能力。他强调了与货运代理合作的重要性,以找到最佳的货物运输方式。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡供应链管理
💡货物延误
💡供应短缺
💡假日季节
💡港口拥堵
💡司机短缺
💡需求高涨
💡价格上升
💡消费者期望
💡替代方案
Highlights
2021年第四季度的货物延误和供应短缺将非常严重,特别是对许多公司而言。
全球供应链问题导致2021年出现一系列问题,任何一个环节的中断都会影响整个链条。
第四季度需求增加,但目前无法满足现有需求。
尽管零售商提前订货,但假日商品的供应量和种类将减少。
物流的最大瓶颈是港口问题,尤其是洛杉矶和长滩的港口。
亚洲尤其是中国的疫情和低疫苗接种率导致生产和物流中断。
港口拥堵导致船只无法及时卸载货物。
港口没有遵循先进先出原则,导致货物无法及时被运走。
司机短缺和运输工具不足也是导致物流问题的因素。
需求高涨,但企业难以满足,同时面临价格上涨问题。
生产商将成本上涨转嫁给消费者。
消费者可能需要调整对快速服务的期望,提前下单。
供应链危机要求消费者和企业提前做好准备。
2022年第一季度可能会看到一些改善,但存在不确定性。
2025年长滩工人合同到期可能引发新的供应链问题。
中国新年可能会影响生产和物流,但也可能促使企业加快订单处理。
需要增加船舶数量和运力来缓解供应链压力。
考虑使用较小的港口和货船作为潜在的解决方案。
与货运代理合作寻找最佳的货物运输方式至关重要。
Transcripts
[Music]
surviving cargo delays and supply
shortages for the rest of 2021
to talk about it i'm joined by patrick
penfield he is professor of practice and
supply chain management and director of
executive education at the syracuse
university whitman school
hello patrick hi robert how are you good
thanks for being with me so let's get a
picture of what this last quarter of
2021 is going to look like in terms of
cargo delays supply shortages and prices
what are you seeing how's it shaping up
yeah so i'm seeing it to be a very
difficult uh fourth quarter and part of
it is just again just the the issues
that we have with the global supply
chain so
everything this year just seems to have
gone wrong and so it's just one part of
supply chain has any type of disruption
then it impacts everything
so yeah i'm looking at a really bad
fourth quarter for uh for a lot of
companies unfortunately and especially
during peak season so that's not good
news
it's horrible right so we've had issues
right now with with not enough capacity
and so usually again fourth quarter
holiday season usually you know demand
just amps up and so unfortunately we
can't even handle the current demand
that we have so this is you know this is
why you know i guys stated it's going to
be very difficult for for companies to
be able to get what they need well we'd
like to think that at least some of the
holiday merchandise that will be sold on
shelves this season has probably already
been brought in i know a lot of
companies a lot of retailers were
ordering early so is that the case that
maybe they do have some stuff to sell
it's not being held up in ships off the
coast of l.a and long beach yeah
absolutely so they they've tried to do
as much as they possibly can as far as
you know getting in inventory but you
know it's still you know you still have
that window right and so the the ideal
situation is you know to get that stuff
in may june get into your distribution
centers and then be able to get it on
the store shelves by at least the end of
september
so you're going to see stuff i think
what i i've been telling people is this
is that you'll see things on the shelf
but unfortunately you won't see the
variety and you won't see the volume
that you're normally accustomed to
seeing
where are the biggest bottlenecks the
biggest choke points logistically right
now
yeah i'd have to see the ports the ports
still seem to be a problem
so you know again every industry is a
little different as far as you know how
they're i hate to use the word suffering
but suffering is probably the right word
so you know the the unfortunate thing is
you know we uh you know china is our
largest trading partner here in the
states and so you know we've just seen
the delta variant just running rampant
throughout asia and so unfortunately
because of the low vaccination rates
what we're seeing is that these
countries are just closing down you know
they're issuing directives no move
uh you know not again
yeah again again right so
this is just causing more issues right
so you shut down a port then you have
ships at uh you know outside the port uh
you know waiting to to uh you know to be
able to unload
and uh again uh the waves right so you
know we we don't see enough ships coming
over and then when they do come over
then you know we have this unprecedented
demand that the ports here in the us
can't handle and then yeah it's just an
ugly mess
so the problem is it's not um there's no
fifo with the ports either right so if
you're shipping stuff over from asia and
it gets over to the port of long beach a
part of los angeles it gets unloaded
you're not going to necessarily get that
first one that should have been you know
unloaded first you know on on the trucks
and on or on the trains you know it
could get buried there and that that's
what's going on well you might have an
order but it's it's somewhere there in
the park but we just don't know where
well that's always been the case for
these giant container ships that
sometimes your container will be buried
deep in the hold but it would eventually
would come out of faster rate than it is
now so i guess that's it unless unless
somebody paid for top deck movements or
something but even if it comes off the
top deck it's still going to get stuck
on a train or a truck somewhere right
absolutely right it's just just not
enough capacity to to be able to move
this uh this inventory and bodies and
people too i mean driver driver shortage
absolutely right so that's impacting
things too right so we don't have enough
drivers um you know we don't have enough
uh uh trucks uh we don't have uh the the
trailers to handle some of these uh you
know the the 20-foot containers so you
know this is just an ongoing mess and so
this is the problem we have stuff here
but we're just unable to get it to where
it needs to go and so you know this is
going to be an ongoing problem
throughout this fourth quarter meanwhile
what is demand looking like what are the
what are the trends there yeah demand is
is very high you know so there have been
various reports you know i've seen you
know um almost every industry seems to
be busy so everybody seems to have this
demand um the issue is that they're
having a problem trying to fulfill it
and then the other problem they have is
just the price increases that they're
going to get with right so again is what
do you do with you know with what the
price increases do do you pass it on or
do you hold it and most most of these
producers are actually passing on to the
consumers
yeah and they're having just have to put
up with it yeah i'm also wondering how
this is going to affect consumer
expectations we as consumers have become
pretty spoiled over the recent years
especially in online orders getting our
stuff when we want it and as quickly as
we want it and quickly by that i mean
it's quicker than ever
do you think we may have to make some
compromises on service just because the
reality this situation just have to put
up with it or consumers not going to
take that lying down
no i absolutely think you have to and i
would tell all your listeners and all
the consumers out there is order early
and uh you know to get your shipments in
because it will be a mess out there you
know during especially if you're a
last-minute type person and i i tend to
be a last-minute person and i'm even
taking my own advice
i know this ongoing situation that's
going to present itself in december yeah
it's going to be awful it's just
and what i mean by awful it's just um
it's it's going to be a mess and and
that's what i mean i think there's going
to be a lot of difficulty in trying to
get product where it needs to go and i
think it's just because everything is
just getting plugged up so the whole
supply chain is is more or less in
crisis right now
you know it's good advice when you
follow it yourself right
absolutely
well what will it take for this
situation to improve if it's not going
to improve in the fourth quarter mean
what has to happen
in order for these log jams to clear the
bottlenecks to clear and things to start
moving at a reasonable pace again yeah i
i think i'm hopeful that we'll start to
see some of the stuff on on
unfold hopefully in the first quarter
the concern i have and nobody's really
been talking about this is the
longshoremen uh and their contract which
expires in july of 2025.
so if you remember the last time we had
an issue with longshoremen yep it was it
was not a very good situation because a
third
of what could uh you know brought in
from asia comes through those ports you
know from uh and so i'm concerned about
that i think we might be able to to to
you know do things a little better in
that first second quarter but if that
long shoremen if they strike then all
bets are off then i think we'll be back
in this situation that we're in today or
even slow down which is what happened in
the past you don't even need a strike
you just need a slowdown of work and all
of a sudden the ships start piling up
outside the harbor again absolutely yeah
so the er first quarter is generally a a
dip
in demand you got chinese new year too
so you don't have a lot of as much
activity going on so maybe we take a
breath then i don't know what do you
think well i i think you know i i i'm
and again i'm trying to think if i were
in china and i was a china company i i
could see them again there you know uh
the chinese new year is a big holiday in
china right and uh i could see where you
might even see the the chinese companies
producing uh somewhat in that period too
maybe it's not as big of a holiday as it
normally is um just again just to catch
up with orders and be able to ship so i
could see where companies might be doing
some of that you know in the first
quarter um and again i think you know
for the most part everybody's going to
be trying to catch up trying to clean
out trying to make sure that um
hopefully they can get things back in
order
my hope also is that um you know we see
more vessels out there from a shipping
standpoint uh we really need to see some
price drops with with these uh you know
the container pricing because it's it's
always gone crazy yeah yeah so i'm
hopeful that we'll see some new ships
out there we'll see some you know some
extra capacity there and i think if that
were to happen that i think that would
be a good move um to make sure that you
know we can uh really see that and and
possibly even looking at other ports
maybe some that maybe have some capacity
that we might be able to ship to yeah
you know what about workarounds we've
heard anecdotally about some companies
using smaller ports that aren't even
container ports to bring in containers
there's a limit i imagine to which you
can do that before that starts to jam up
too so are there workarounds or is it
just we just have to take it until it uh
until it's really
so we see relief
no i i think there are some workarounds
the issue is is the size of the vessels
right because you've got some of these
vessels that can hold ten thousand
fifteen thousand twenty thousand teus
and so the dilemma is that these ports
can't handle these big monster ships
these mega freighters right so you know
if it's a smaller ship absolutely so you
know i've heard people talk about the
port of houston using that more often
going up to washington
uh you know trying to utilize those
ports and i think that's really kind of
what you have to do and that's the other
thing i would stress to to uh you know
to companies is to work with their
freight forwarders and you know figure
out you know what's the best way to to
move freight you know um especially
during the fourth quarter because i
think that's really essential to have
good partners and hopefully help guide
you as far as you know their
recommendations on how to move things
well
looks like we're going to have to grind
it out for the next few months but maybe
there are small solutions here and there
of companies to find creative
partnerships and the like and find ways
around the current congestion and maybe
we get some smaller ships for more
services to smaller ports but in the
meantime
patrick penfield syracuse university
whitman school thank you so much for
offering your insights on the current
situation they may not be very rosy but
at least they're honest and that gives
us a chance to prepare thanks very much
for your time i really appreciate it
you're very welcome robert great talking
to you and have a have a great uh
hopefully have a great holiday season
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