Urban Warfare 2.0: A Conversation with John Spencer (Episode #366)
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful podcast, Sam Harris interviews John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare and Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at West Point, to dissect the complexities of the conflict in Gaza. Spencer, with 25 years of military experience and a deep understanding of urban combat, offers a military perspective on the challenges Israel faces against Hamas. They discuss the unique aspects of this conflict, including the extensive tunnel systems used by Hamas, the concept of human shields, and the difficulties in distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in dense urban environments. The conversation also touches on the importance of managing global perception, the potential consequences if Hamas is not defeated, and the broader implications for the Middle East, including the roles of Hezbollah and Iran. Spencer emphasizes the importance of adhering to the law of war and the ethical conduct of military operations, while also acknowledging the limitations and potential misinterpretations of social media as a source of information on war.
Takeaways
- 🎓 John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare, discusses the complexities of the Israel-Gaza conflict, emphasizing the unique challenges Israel faces due to Hamas's use of civilian human shields and subterranean warfare.
- 📈 Spencer highlights that Israel's response to Hamas's aggression on October 7th was more measured than many realize, with efforts made to minimize civilian casualties despite the density of the urban environment and the scale of Hamas's tunnel network.
- 🚧 The discussion underscores the difficulty of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in Gaza, where Hamas intentionally operates amidst civilian populations and uses them as shields.
- 🤔 Spencer questions the narrative that Israel is intentionally maximizing civilian casualties, arguing that such an interpretation misrepresents the realities of urban warfare and the strategies employed by both sides.
- 🌐 The podcast touches on the role of social media in shaping perceptions of the conflict, with a deluge of information and misinformation creating a distorted view of events on the ground.
- 🏛 Spencer criticizes Israel's public relations strategy, suggesting that not embedding journalists has led to a failure in countering the prevailing negative narrative.
- 🛰️ The importance of accurate intelligence in warfare is emphasized, with Spencer noting that Israel's actions are guided by the best information available at the time, which is key to understanding the law of war and potential war crimes.
- 💣 The discussion explores the concept of 'human sacrifice' by Hamas, where they intentionally put their own civilians at risk to achieve political and military objectives.
- 🕍 Spencer suggests that a two-state solution is not currently viable due to the asymmetrical goals of Israel and Palestinian groups like Hamas, who prioritize the destruction of Israel over the establishment of a Palestinian state.
- ⛔ The aftermath of conflict poses significant challenges, with the need for international cooperation to rebuild and establish a secure and peaceful governance in Gaza.
- ⏳ Spencer warns of the broader implications of the conflict, particularly the role of Iran in backing Hamas and Hezbollah, and the need for a global response to address the threat they pose to regional stability.
Q & A
What is the significance of John Spencer's background in understanding urban warfare?
-John Spencer's extensive military experience, including combat tours in Iraq and his academic focus on urban warfare, provides him with a unique perspective to analyze and discuss the complexities of military operations in dense urban areas and megacities, which is highly relevant to the situation in Gaza.
How does the misinformation regarding the conflict in Gaza affect public perception?
-The misinformation can lead to confusion and a skewed understanding of the conflict. It can result in the propagation of false narratives, which may not accurately represent the actions of the IDF or the nature of the conflict, thus influencing public opinion in a potentially biased or incorrect manner.
What challenges does the IDF face in urban warfare that are unique to Gaza?
-The IDF faces challenges such as the dense urban environment, the presence of large civilian populations intermixed with combatants, the extensive tunnel systems used by Hamas, and the need to balance military necessity with the aim to minimize civilian casualties.
How does the use of human shields by Hamas affect the dynamics of the conflict?
-The use of human shields by Hamas complicates the conflict by placing civilians in harm's way, which can lead to increased civilian casualties. It also forces the IDF to take additional precautions to avoid harming civilians, potentially hindering their operational effectiveness.
What is the role of social media in the Gaza conflict?
-Social media plays a significant role in the Gaza conflict by providing real-time information and footage, which can influence public perception. However, it can also contribute to the spread of misinformation and can be used to disseminate propaganda.
How does the concept of 'plausible deniability' apply to state-backed terrorist operations?
-Plausible deniability refers to the ability of a state actor to deny responsibility for actions conducted by proxy forces or non-state actors it supports. This tactic allows state actors like Iran to engage in conflict indirectly, avoiding direct blame or retaliation while still pursuing their strategic objectives.
What are the legal and ethical considerations for the IDF in distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of urban warfare?
-The IDF is bound by the laws of war to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants, aiming to minimize harm to civilians. Ethically, they must also consider the societal values they represent, ensuring their actions align with international humanitarian law and the moral code of their society.
What are the historical precedents for the use of tunnels in warfare, and how does Hamas's tunnel network in Gaza differ?
-Tunnels have been used in various conflicts for infiltration, evasion, and military operations. However, Hamas's extensive tunnel network in Gaza is unique in its scale, purposefully built under civilian areas to serve as a defensive and offensive strategy, complicating the IDF's efforts to counter it without causing civilian harm.
How does the concept of victory in urban warfare differ from traditional warfare?
-In urban warfare, victory is not solely defined by the defeat of enemy combatants but also involves the preservation of civilian life, the restoration of order, and the establishment of a stable environment. It requires a nuanced approach that considers the complexities of urban environments and the long-term implications of military actions.
What are the potential consequences of Israel's actions in Gaza for its international relations and reputation?
-Israel's actions in Gaza can significantly impact its international relations and reputation, with potential accusations of war crimes, human rights violations, and the impact on civilian populations. The country must balance its military objectives with diplomatic considerations and the court of global public opinion.
How does the perception of the conflict in Gaza change when considering the broader geopolitical context, including the roles of Iran and Hezbollah?
-Considering the broader geopolitical context highlights the complexity of the conflict, with Iran and Hezbollah's involvement adding layers of proxy warfare and regional power dynamics. This context can shift perceptions of the conflict from a localized dispute to a front in a larger struggle for regional influence and security.
Outlines
🎙️ Introduction and Expertise on Urban Warfare
Sam Harris introduces the podcast episode, highlighting the discussion on the recent events in Gaza. His guest, John Spencer, is an expert in urban warfare with a background in military operations and academic research. Spencer has served in the Army, participated in combat tours in Iraq, and is well-published on the subject. The conversation aims to analyze the complexities of warfare in urban and subterranean environments, particularly focusing on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
🌐 The Nature of Hamas's Attacks and Urban Warfare
The discussion delves into the nature of Hamas's attacks, the challenges of distinguishing combatants from non-combatants, and the societal values reflected in such conflicts. They also cover the number of casualties in Gaza, the distinction between combatants and non-combatants, the double standards faced by the IDF, and criticisms of Israel's military actions. The unique aspects of the Gaza war, including Hamas's use of human shields and the complexities of underground warfare, are also explored.
📹 The Misinformation and Media Coverage of the Gaza Conflict
The conversation addresses the misinformation surrounding the Gaza conflict and the challenges of obtaining accurate information. Despite the unprecedented level of visibility due to social media, there is a significant amount of confusion and misinterpretation of events. The participants discuss the role of Hamas's videos, the real-time analysis of events, and the importance of understanding the context in which the war is taking place.
🏭 Analyzing the Uniqueness of the Gaza Conflict
John Spencer shares his expertise on urban warfare to analyze the situation in Gaza. They discuss the unique aspects of the conflict, including the jubilation of combatants crossing the border and the public's reaction to the violence. The conversation also touches on the cultural asymmetry between how different societies perceive and react to war and violence.
🤔 The Complexity of Distinguishing Combatants from Non-Combatants
The discussion focuses on the complexities of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of the Gaza conflict. It addresses the challenges faced by the IDF in differentiating between innocent civilians and Hamas members, the cultural differences in the conduct of war, and the ethical considerations that come into play.
📉 The Numbers and Proportion of Combatants to Civilians
The conversation examines the numbers of casualties in Gaza and the proportion of combatants to non-combatants. It questions the reliability of the numbers provided by various sources, including the Gaza Health Ministry, which is affiliated with Hamas. The discussion also highlights the difficulty of ascertaining accurate casualty figures in the midst of an urban conflict.
🚨 The Allegations Against Israel and the IDF
The participants discuss the widespread allegations against Israel and the IDF, including accusations of war crimes, genocide, and collective punishment. They explore the validity of these claims and the context in which they are made, emphasizing the importance of understanding the law of war and the challenges faced by the IDF in urban combat situations.
💣 The IDF's Approach to Minimizing Civilian Casualties
The discussion highlights the IDF's efforts to minimize civilian casualties, despite the unique challenges posed by the Gaza conflict. It addresses the strategies employed by the IDF, including waiting periods, evacuation notices, and the use of technology to warn civilians. The conversation also touches on the criticism of Israel's public relations approach during the conflict.
🕳️ The Challenge of Tunnel Warfare and the IDF's Response
The conversation delves into the complexities of tunnel warfare in Gaza, discussing the extensive network built by Hamas and the innovative methods used by the IDF to counter this threat. It explores the use of robots, explosives, and other tactics to neutralize the tunnel networks while considering the potential presence of hostages.
🔍 The Misinterpretation of Visual Evidence in War
The participants discuss the challenges of interpreting visual evidence from a conflict zone, particularly the misinterpretation of videos showing civilian casualties. They emphasize the importance of understanding the context and the law of war when evaluating such evidence, and the dangers of drawing conclusions without a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
🏙️ The Aftermath of Destroying Hamas's Military Capability
The discussion considers the potential aftermath of dismantling Hamas's military capabilities, including the need for a viable governance structure in Gaza and the challenges of rebuilding and establishing a new framework for peace. It also touches on the broader implications for the Middle East and the role of the international community in supporting a post-conflict Gaza.
🤝 The Role of International Actors and the Prospects of Peace
The conversation concludes with a discussion on the role of international actors in facilitating peace in the region, the need for a fundamental change in the approach towards Iran, and the importance of recognizing the existential threats posed by non-state actors backed by Iran. It emphasizes the complexity of achieving a two-state solution and the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Urban Warfare
💡Hamas
💡Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
💡Human Shields
💡
💡Terrorism
💡Law of War
💡Civilian Casualties
💡Tunnel Warfare
💡Counternarrative
💡Misinformation
💡Two-State Solution
Highlights
John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare, shares his insights on the complexities of military operations in dense urban areas and megacities.
Discussion on the unique challenges Israel faced during the conflict in Gaza, including the scale of Hamas's tunnel system and the use of human shields.
Analysis of the double standards and misinformation surrounding the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) conduct during the conflict.
Spencer highlights the importance of distinguishing between combatants and non-combatants in the context of urban warfare.
The podcast addresses the difficulties in interpreting videos of combat and the potential for misrepresenting the actions of military forces.
Sam Harris and John Spencer delve into the strategic use of tunnels by Hamas and the innovative countermeasures employed by the IDF.
Examining the role of social media in the conflict, with real-time footage affecting public opinion and the challenges of managing an information war.
The ethical considerations of warfare, including the proportionality of response and the efforts made by the IDF to minimize civilian casualties.
Spencer's perspective on the long-term strategic implications of the conflict for Israel, Hamas, and the broader Middle East.
The potential aftermath of the conflict and the complexities involved in rebuilding and re-establishing governance in Gaza post-Hamas.
Discussion on the potential for a two-state solution and the prerequisites for a peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestine.
The implications of Iran's involvement in the conflict and the broader regional instability caused by its proxy wars.
Assessment of the effectiveness of Israel's defensive systems, such as the Iron Dome, and the impact on deterrence and perceptions of existential threats.
Exploration of the potential actions and strategies that could be employed against Hezbollah, given the evolving nature of the conflict.
The necessity for a change in approach towards Iran, with considerations for the broader geopolitical consequences of direct military action.
Transcripts
[Music]
[Music]
welcome to the making sense podcast this
is Sam
Harris well it's been pretty crazy out
there on college campuses
I will have much more to say about that
shortly but today I'm bringing you a
podcast that I promised in a previous
episode where I said I would talk to
someone who is an expert in urban
Warfare who could help me analyze just
what has gone on in Gaza today I'm
speaking with John Spencer John
currently serves as the chair of urban
Warfare studies at the Modern War
Institute at West Point he is the
co-director of the urban Warfare project
and host of the Urban War project
podcast he's also a founding member of
the international working group on
Subterranean
Warfare John served 25 years in the Army
having held ranks from private to
Sergeant First Class and second
Lieutenant to Major he was an active
duty army officer during two combat
tours in Iraq his research focuses on
military operations in dense urban areas
mega cities and urban and Subterranean
Warfare John also holds a master of
policy management from Georgetown
University and his writing has appeared
in the New York Times The Wall Street
Journal The Washington Post foreign
policy and many other Publications and
he's the author of the book
understanding Urban Warfare John and I
cover Israel's response to October 7th
from top to bottom we discussed the
nature of hamas's attacks on October 7th
what was most surprising about them the
the difficulty in distinguishing Hamas
from the rest of the population in Gaza
combatants as a reflection of a
society's values how many people have
been killed so far in Gaza the
proportion of combatants and
non-combatants the double standards to
which the IDF is held the worst
criticism that can be made of Israel and
the IDF so far intentions versus
results what is unique about the war in
Gaza hamas's use of human Shields what
it would mean to defeat them what the
IDF has accomplished so far the
destruction of the Gaza tunnel system
the details of underground Warfare the
rescue of hostages how non-combatants
become combatants how difficult it is to
interpret videos of combat what victory
would look like the likely aftermath of
the war a possible war with hisbah
Iran's attack on Israel and what to do
about Iran and other topics
this one is a PSA so no pay wall as
always if you find what we're doing here
valuable and you want to support the
podcast you can do that by subscribing
at samh harris.org and now I bring you
John
Spencer I am here with John Spencer John
thanks for joining me Sam thanks for
having me so uh I will have introduced
you in the the intro here but um perhaps
you can State what your background is
and and how you come to this
conversation sure so I spent 25 years in
the US military as a infantry Soldier
and officer and then spent two combat
deployments to Iraq both in the invasion
and at the end but then I went you know
throughout my career I went my last job
was teaching strategy at West Point
where I stood up a research center and
started researching you know all Urban
battles and I became this chair of urban
Warfare studies that I am now really
when I left the military I began this
endeavor to travel the world into combat
zones to understand them in real time
that has led me to where I am now where
I can uniquely provide people I hope
understanding of the Israel's war
against Hamas and Gaza which is
overwhelmingly Urban which is what I
specialize in yes I want to get your
expertise here on on Urban Warfare and
um use that to analyze what's happening
uh in Gaza and what what isn't happening
there's I think there's a a lot of
misinformation about the nature of the
war and how it compares to other
conflicts where else have you witnessed
Urban Warfare Beyond being in your own
tours in the military when I left the
military in 2018 and really took full
direction of my new job to study it
academically I started I went to Mumbai
to study the 2008 Terror attacks which
was on a you know 10 terrorist took down
a whole city I went to Israel multiple
times studying past Wars so like the
2002 Battle of Janine the the Battle of
su City when the fullscale invasion of
Ukraine by Russia started I started
going into Ukraine so I've been four
times since the War Began studying the
urban battle so key bmot Mar opal and
then of course I've been to Gaza twice
since the beginning of the Israel Hamas
War interesting that you went to Mumbai
that's something that I've thought a lot
about in the aftermath of October 7th
because it's it's really this pure case
of jihadism that has nothing to do with
Israel obviously has very little to do
with Jews except for the fact that they
did manage to find some Jews to kill in
Mumbai but um I'm interested to hear
what that was like before we hit our
main topic sure I mean I also I forgot
to mention that I also went into
nagarana kabach there was a war there in
2020 and there's been another one but I
went in after that war to it ended in a
major Urban battle over the Battle of
shusa but going back to Mumbai I mean it
was just fascinating in the planning
that went into it and like you said I'm
one of they basically hit five targets
simultaneously at the exact same you
moment with small teams of terrorists
dressed as civilians trying to blend in
and one of them being the habad two
hotels a train station but overwhelmed
the systems and there are you know
totally at a different scale a lot of
similarities between the invasion of
Israel on October 7th and the Mumbai
attacks on how it kind of overloaded the
system yeah yeah that was um it's all
one thing that's fascinating about this
is that um to my knowledge
India did not respond am I right about
that looks I haven't heard about what
India has done in response not an
indirect action because it you know it
was verified by intelligence that it was
a Pakistani Le operation so really a
state-backed operation but using these
proxy forces you know and this was a you
know that traveled from Pakistan into
India to conduct the attack there was a
lot of political things that happened to
include you know demanding
responsibility but there was such
plausible deniability it was literally
frustrating with the you the terrorist
group who did it but you're right no
direct action I there are lots of you
know history there between the Indian
and Pakistan and the concern of just
like we've seen other places the concern
of escalation in that direct attack but
there's a this is the kind of the Iran
situation in the Middle East too there
is always this plausible deniability
even if in these cases where it can be
proven that the terrorists were trained
financed and launched by a state actor
M okay so on to October 7th and
Gaza I I was thinking we would start our
conversation with the war in Gaza just
so post Israel's response to October 7th
but is there anything you want to say
about October 7th itself before Israel
did anything in response sure I think
it's I I I spent a lot of time walking
the ground of October 7th from My Lens
right of was somebody who studied Urban
combat from Mumbai to all wars I think
that the world kind of got to miss
really still has it wrong on what
happened on October 7th so I I've done a
lot of work on walking the ground and
going to all the different sites and
understanding the scale the intention
the magnitude the tactics and everything
from October 7th and I think the world
you know wants to put it in the
terrorist bucket right to put it in the
bucket with 911 M 2611 or the Mumbai
attacks and other terrorist attacks and
while yes it there are some similarities
but it's it's more like a full scale
Invasion I mean there were over 4,000
you know both Hamas and Palestinian
civilians that cross the border between
Israel and Gaza 22 breach sites along
the border wall 4,000 rockets launched
in the first few hours with the
intention of moving much farther north
than they did I mean it was a and I've
struggled with what was October 7th and
and as from a military lens it it is as
clear as an invasion as you can get MH
interesting it's somewhat confounded
just optically and and conceptually by
the fact that as you just pointed out
that there were Hamas you know Fighters
I mean not not properly thought of as
soldiers in in the state actor sense
perhaps but they were um you know
obvious insurgents but then as you
pointed out there were almost as many or
even
as many or more Palestinian civilians
who came across the border and
participated in the violence to one or
another degree how how do you think
about that I mean it we all want
Frameworks in which to think about it I
think about it as in a warlands it's
hard in this situation like what was
Gaza it was it a state and was this a
the launch of a a state attack right it
it it's not so it falls into these two
buckets of whether International armed
conflict or non- internationally armed
conflict but I view it like I said as an
invasion with different forces yeah the
first wave of forces were these Hamas
Nuka some even wearing uniform forces
with clear instructions I mean they had
guide books on how to create as much
suffering they had guide books on how to
wear their GoPro cameras there's just so
much uniqueness but I view if you cross
the border I VI you as a combatant
really so in in war there's two
categories non-combatant and a combatant
and yes you can get into like illegal
combatant and all of these things but if
if somebody crossed the border from Gaza
into Israel with the purpose of
partaking in the hostilities they
immediately make themselves a combatant
yeah so let's move forward into and I
think as we talk here I'd like both of
us to be alert to any topics about which
we think many people are confused so if
if I just raise something which you
about which you think there there's a
lot of misunderstanding out there in the
public please flag it and let's Linger
on it so that we don't miss any
opportunities here to rectify some of
the confusion so now that the war has
started we're talking now where there
there's been a A Lull in the fighting
and and really the question the open
question still perhaps it'll still be
open when we air this is whether or not
is the the IDF is going to go into Rafa
I'm sure there's there's some conflict
happening even as we speak but it there
there's definitely been a lull on the
fighting what do we know about the war
in Gaza and how do we know it at this
point I mean just how much how is
information getting out well how do you
view the quality of the information on
some level this is the most witnessed
conflict in human history judging from
social media but in other ways that you
we know that there's an astounding
amount of misinformation and and
confusion about it what what is going on
in Gaza and how do we know what is going
on sure I think I think that's a great
question and it's hard to say you know
from from the from October 7th till
today have been how have we known what
is going on and how has that shaped our
you know basically our information about
the war and I agree with you is this we
used to have these terms like Tick Tock
Wars um they're calling this the first
open source war after Ukraine but the
ution of being able basically being
bombarded by information not through
kind of the traditional means but
through social media and other aspects
where we can see into the battle
continuously but we're also looking
through a so dist strw and a lot of
people are interpreting what they're
seeing where I agree with you we can
really start from October 7th we talked
about that on how I think people have
gotten that wrong on it was a terrorist
attack it was you oriented towards the
military all the these different
immediate disinformation campaigns that
seem to be gaining traction to sticking
even in Israel's response but once you
know on October 8th Israel declared war
against Hamas such a really great
framework a state because they went on
the news and made a formal declaration
of war against tamas in Gaza because of
what happened on October 7th that's
pretty straightforward they set forth
their goals which again as time has gone
in different media messages or
information operations that we call them
you know social media trends or whatever
there's been so much of the truth that
has been translated you asked me how do
we know what we know so for like October
7th we know because Hamas uploaded all
their videos a lot of time in real time
so we we can pretty much you people were
starting to make their own opinions on
October 7th based on the overwhelming
information being uploaded but it's
really interesting how
despite even hamas's videosos everybody
formed their own opinion on you know it
was resistance it was oriented towards
this the military it there wasn't this
you know no rape happened all these
things despite the overwhelming evidence
we all had access to is all that video
still up there or has it been in some
ways taken down no you can go to like
you can just go to October there's
actually video I I I forget the name of
them like October 7.com and um where
people have collected unfortunately all
the homos they can find and put it on as
a record of because you know you as the
thread of X or telegram whatever it can
get lost in the threads but no people
have it's all still available I saw the
video that the Israeli government put
together um I saw it you know back in
November and it was really shocking and
I wrote about how much it it jarred me
despite how much I've seen of War how
much you my own experiences yeah I
haven't seen that video and I perhaps I
should I think I've been sparing myself
the experience but um what did surprise
you about it one I one of the biggest
surprises was just the unique because of
the fact that Hamas recorded so much of
the atrocities they were doing but also
the fact that you know there were so
many sensors we call them you know
traffic cameras dashboard cameras victim
cell
phones the what Israel did which nobody
has access to unless seen this video was
to take all those different points of
view and then put them in time and
location so like if you're at the Nova
Music Festival the video shows you the
Hamas GoPro approaching the festival it
shows you the dash camera of somebody
there trying to get away and the and of
the frightened teenager who's recording
it it brings it all together which I
think really creates this very mixed
reality experience of which is unique to
war reporting like I've watched you know
my fill of evil things happening around
the world but how this was put together
I think was really unique so it really
Jarred me I mean other things that I saw
in the video that were very unique to me
was like the video of Hamas rolling
through the the Border really jubilant
about what they were about to do yeah
and I've LED I've led a lot of soldiers
into combat and that's not normal even
for you know for soldiers for anybody to
be really excited euphor about what they
were about to do and then lastly I found
some of the videos of like the children
crying out in pain there's one scene
where there's two young boys um the
Hamas members had just killed the father
they had brought them back into the
house and you can hear the boys moaning
which is something I as a soldier have
heard you know enemy combatants do on
the battlefield like it's like the de
the death moan I call it and to hear
that coming from a boy was really
traumatic but I've also seen you know
innocent civilians being caught in
between you know in in war and how the
soldiers will overwhelmingly stop to
give Aid and to have a little boy crying
out his eyes missing his dad dead and
for the Hamas member to be standing
there like shut up be quiet and then
goes to the fridge and that's the scene
that everybody talks about where he
grabs the the coke out of the fridge and
starts drinking it that was really you
know very
unique yeah I was just um we're talking
now and uh on the day that um Cheryl
Sandberg released her documentary on um
the violence against women on October
7th that's available on YouTube uh and I
I just started watching it I only got
maybe 15 minutes in before we had to
jump on the microphones here but it
shows some of the footage which I had
seen before of which many people have
seen and I really think everyone should
see of of some of the hostages being
dragged across the border into Gaza and
you know some of the young women who
almost certainly have been raped I mean
there's there's one who's got obviously
blood around her pelvic area on her
pants and actually looks like her her
Achilles tendons might have been cut
which is a diabolical detail if true but
the the thing that's so striking about
so much of this footage of the hostages
being dragged across the borders that so
many of the people in the scene are
absolutely ecstatic and they're you know
you know basically all you hear are
shouts of allu Akbar and it's coming
from you mean I guess many of these
people certainly some of the people are
official members of Hamas but judging
from the the sheer numbers in many of
these shots it really seems like a lot
of these people are just Palestinian
civilians who are getting caught up in
the in the mob violence but it does
strike me as unusual I mean it's very
hard there I can imagine a lot of things
you know I can imagine based on some
experience of being a victim and you
know wanting Vengeance and you know to I
can imagine being on the other side of
uh violence even even wrongful violence
but what I find it very difficult to
imagine is a scenario where an obvious
non-combatant you know in this case a
girl or a mother clutching two children
to her breast being taken hostage and
finding the taking of these hostages a
cause for celebration right like this is
the wind I've been hoping for this is
the thing that's going to get me
shrieking to heaven in Jubilation that
we finally grabbed one of these you you
know mistreated girls who's you know
already bloodied may be grievously
injured in some Cas in some cases dead
where you have people you know rushing
forward to spit upon the corpses of
again in many cases obvious
non-combatants I mean you can you can
understand it you know if this you know
really fully lean into the principle of
Charity here perhaps you can understand
it if these are soldiers being taken
hostage but when you have a woman
clutching her kids being dragged onto a
motorcycle and you have people shrieking
in Jubilation over this I have a um I
mean I know why I think people are
capable of this but it's um you know I
would say you have to believe some very
specific things about the moral order in
the universe and your place in it to
find these sorts of moments the
Fulfillment of your aspirations right
and a and a cause for happiness not not
Grim murderous determination or sadism
or but just joy and so there something I
think people find it very hard to
interpret these scenes and and I think
they've just averted their their eyes
from them but they do
suggest that any bright line we want to
draw between you know evil mustache
twirling terrorists you know I.E the
core members of Hamas and other
Palestinians is in fact difficult to
draw I'm just wondering how you view
those scenes because they do strike me
as surprising in ways that Echo the the
surprise you just expressed over the
Jubilation of the of the combatants
coming across the border as as kind of a
a non-standard mood for soldiers yeah it
it's an interesting so it's not the
first time I've seen it to be truthful
now those who crossed the border and
engaged in the activities in any way to
include the the looters who even came
forward and walked over the dead
children's bodies and took their
clothing back into Gaza like I'm a very
law of war rule of law realist basically
so have I seen similar of course it's
it's disgusting to see it reminded me of
you know scenes of Mogadishu
1993 the entire population celebrating
the death of American soldiers fuia 2004
the entire seems like the entire city
coming out to dismember Americans burn
them drag them hang them from their
bridge and celebrate it's not yes I 100%
agree with you it's a massive problem
with you know Islamic radicalization of
populations and to where you can bring
yourself to be celebrating the rape of
women and taking the babies as hostages
just so many fundamental issues with
that but I also draw a c line because I
understand the history of war and this
is again where I think people have
gotten it wrong they think that to think
that those videos didn't lead to like
Israel's quest for vengeance
and and and the way they act that is all
stemming off of what happened October
7th I strongly believe from being on the
ground you asked me how do I get my
information or other people from being
on the ground with the idea that is also
not how soldiers approach even after you
the Battle of fuia or other instance
which is very similar in the difficulty
of distinguishing between okay who's a
combatant or non-combatant innocent
civilian it doesn't lead to Nations or
like the IDF in this case where no
matter what they do people think they're
intentionally trying to Target people
because of those videos which is not the
reality on the ground yeah I mean can
you imagine the reverse case of the IDF
dragging obvious non-combatant women and
children out of Gaza across the border
into Israel and you know random Israelis
celebrating their rape and abuse it's
just there's some glaring asymmetries
here which people are losing sight of
there's just no I'm sure we'll get into
the details of what the IDF has done and
what what they may have done wrong and I
really have no doubt that there are
examples of war crimes to be found in
the war in Gaza on the IDF side because
it would be it seems like it would be
impossible for some Soldier or soldiers
not to have gone Haywire in certain
circumstances right this is just the the
nature of War as I understand it but
what I don't think you would find is an
appetite among the Israelis to have
raped non-combatants paraded before
jeering crowds in Tel Aviv there is just
a cultural asymmetry here that is quite
glaring and almost never remarked upon
100% And and I agree with you this is
really
that you know the misinformation that is
so shocking that you have so much
misunderstanding of who the Israelis are
as in the IDF the people of Israel how
there is an aspect of of course the law
of War I'm sure we'll talk about
following the law of war and all of its
intricacies in the execution of a war
but also the the moral ethical code of
your Society I mean militaries are a
reflection of their societies so like
you're right the asymmetry here is you
think that the is is society would be
okay with any of that and clearly
they're not and they want to hold
soldiers if they do go wrong in war
accountable there's so much of that that
is that's not who we are that people
don't understand that militaries take
into war the reflection of their
society's values so there's so much Mis
misinformation out there that it becomes
confusing to people who have never been
there they couldn't tell you what the
the difference between Gaza and the West
Bank is they they couldn't tell you what
the size of Israel is or what there's so
much they don't know but they form these
immediate you know hardened and emphatic
opinions about that's just the way
Israel does like what are you talking
about so back to the information
question let's just focus on the the raw
numbers here how many people have been
killed in Gaza and what is the
proportion of combatants to
non-combatants and I because one thing
we're dealing with here is that for the
longest time time people have simply
been restating numbers that have come
straight out of the so-called Ministry
of Health which is really Hamas in Gaza
you know I don't think anyone can doubt
that many thousands of people have died
and and that many thousands of
non-combatants have died but what what
do we know about the numbers and the
proportion or do we simply actually not
know with any confidence at this point
yeah that's a great question it's
interesting how many times I've gotten
the question unique to this war
only what is the combatant to civilian
kill ratio it's just I of course having
studied so many Urban battles can tell
you what it was in the past um I can
tell you for so the question was how
many have died there the answer is
nobody knows but for some reason unique
we you know war is a contest of will we
have to fight what the narrative is so
because unique to this war alone and and
I I don't say this based on opinion just
but empirical evidence this is the first
war in history where anybody has had a
running count of the civilian casualties
down to the single digit in real time I
mean if you just imagine a fake running
count correct I mean we're taking the
actual opinion of a third party in who
is affiliated with the Enemy Hamas so
the Gaza Health Ministry is a Hamas
because Hamas wasn't just the military
force it was the government and you
couldn't be part of the institution if
you're not it's complex but to get a
number from within the environment from
the enemy and say that's the number that
the entire world runs with with no
caveats one it's physically impossible
to know how many civilians have died in
Gaza it is has never been done in the
history of war the greatest battle since
World War II was the Battle of mul in
2016 and
17 and a year after the battle the Iraqi
government still did not have a number
in which how many civilians had died now
it went all from 9,000 to 40,000 the the
mayor of the city said it was over
40,000 because of how many you people
are in the rubble how many people are
unaccounted for who left and there's no
report on where they went you can
imagine in a in a very dense Urban
environment like how could you possibly
have a number but if I ran with the
numbers that we all use so let's say the
Gaza Health ministry as we're talking
says 33,000 civilians have died actually
it's not let me caveat myself is that
the Gaza Health Ministry says that
33,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza
since October 7th that number if we are
truthful and and we used hamas's numbers
or or the Gaza health ministries numbers
it accounts for every death that has
happened in Gaza no matter the cause it
is it includes all Hamas members anybody
who died of natural causes anybody who
died actually from hamas's hands because
of the 12,000 rockets at Hamas is
launched out of Gaza towards Israel
since October 7th 20% of those have
landed inside of Gaza and killed many
Palestinian people of Gaza but if we ran
with the 33,000 which includes everybody
El died and we took Israel's number
because if we're going to believe Hamas
Why Don't We Believe Israel who says
given our battle damage assessments we
believe we've killed 12,000 Hamas
combatants so you subtract 12,000 for
33,000 you get about a one enemy to two
if not one to one of enemy to civilian
ratio which would be historically low to
any Urban battle and this is a war not a
battle so it's actually really
interesting how somebody will try to
take a battle from the past especially
the last 30 years and compare it to the
war in Gaza which includes you know like
10 massive Urban battles together that
they they aggregate the numbers to kind
of tell the message they want it would
still be a historically low given the
all the context of urban combat where
you have a civilian population where no
matter what you do many of them still
stay you're trying to identify separate
enemy from civilian or combatant to
non-combatant like the Battle of mul
where you know it took nine months for a
100,000 Iraqi Security Forces to get
four to 5,000 Isis members out of the
city and they killed 10,000 civilians in
in the process of that 9-month battle to
liberate the city so that's a one two
ratio it was so but this is I mean the
fact that every person in that I ever
interview asked me this question is
really shocking because it's it's never
been the question that's not how the law
of War works but we have this number in
our head that like clearly this means
everything that's going on is illegal
and Israel is purposely killing
civilians but look how the high the
number is irrelevant of the context of
the war like we're not even talking
about the numbers the challenge that the
IDF faced in Gaza nobody wants to talk
about that like the 40,000 Hamas members
tens of thousands of other terrorist
members buried in 400 miles of tunnels
intermixed between a population of 2
million who Egypt won't let into Egypt
there's so many complexities to this
battle that no military has faced in the
history of War but nobody cares they
just want to know what's the civilian
death toll and there is no
number yeah yeah well obviously I asked
the question very much in the spirit of
echoing the the observation you just
made which is that
it's the very question shows how upside
down everyone's analysis of this
conflict is and and and became really
immediately even before Israel responded
there was already a massive Distortion
of moral and political priorities in how
people were thinking about the ensuing
violence and I want so I I just want to
continue to to flag what is unique about
this and and just the ways in which
people focus on I mean it's almost like
we have at this moment something like a
billion people maybe two billion people
maybe three billion people for the first
time discovering that war itself is
intolerable and the onus is on Israel
really and the onus is on the Jews if
you want to get down to it but uh there
so there's kind of anti-Semitism here
which we can table it's really not my
focus but Ian when you ask about what
was what is the origin of all of the
double standards here and the weird
inversions of priorities and the you
know for the first time in human history
the seizing upon details that no one
ever thought about in any other conflict
you know the standards to which the IDF
is being held which no other Army has
ever been held you know especially in
the face of the challenges they're
facing which we're going to talk about
which you just began to reference I.E
400 mil of tunnels the strangeness of of
all of this is something that I want to
keep in view but I do also want to just
simply deliver the information as so in
so far as we have it and to concede
whatever can be conceded to the people
who are horrified by the images they're
seeing coming out of Gaza because it's
it's understandable that people are
horrified and especially if they're for
the first time looking at the evidence
of war the evidence of of Urban War as
I've said before there really there
there really is no argument for the
justness of any war in and it's even
necessity that makes sense of the image
of a child being pulled out of rubble
right it's unacceptable whatever the
rationale for it and some billions of
people are having that experience on a
hourly basis because of social media and
it's all Being Framed in the the most
invidious way possible against Israel
and against you know support for Israel
defending itself in this case let's I
guess a high level question here it is
because of this imagery and because of
the way the discussion is Being Framed
again largely on social media there's
this
widespread allegation against Israel and
the IDF that they're guilty not only of
war crimes but the very war is itself a
crime and they guilty of genocide
they're guilty of the collective
punishment of the Palestinians the
deliberate murder of non-combatants and
and even the deliberate murder of
journalists and Aid workers right so
they like when you have you know the the
seven employees of Jose
andreas' humanitarian organization
killed it is analyzed so as to suggest
that Israel has intentionally killed
those Aid workers as that as though you
know the killing of those Aid workers
worked to the advantage of Israel in
some way I mean it's just like you know
it's a it would be a colossal Act of
self harm for them to have killed those
Aid workers on purpose given the
consequences for World opinion but
people seem to effortlessly interpret
every casualty as something that the IDF
has
intended what if anything in this
downpour of disparagement of the IDF and
Israel
is true I mean what what is the worst
thing that can be honestly said about
how Israel has been wag in is war in
Gaza so the only thing that I can say
would be the most honest fact-based
criticism of Israel is that it has done
a horrible job on fighting the
counternarrative of what they're
actually doing one of the main reasons
that is is because they did not embed
foreign media and journalists um this is
the example I usually give when I'm
teaching a class the first battle of
fuia 2004 you know four American
citizens were killed the US president
orders the military in to get those
account you know who did it accountable
the world says that there is too much
use of force too many civilians are
being hurt they're being they're
committing war crimes so six days into
the battle the US military is defeated
and told to stop because of the
perception the use of force very minor
example of the totality that is the war
against Hamas and Gaza but it's a great
example where they they were defeated
and there were zero media EDS in the
first battle of fuia 6 months later when
they redid the same operation 60 media
EDS so that's the honest criticism but I
could help you kind of go through every
narrative every accusation to include
the targeting of journalist Aid workers
or civilians in general where the US
government not even me John Spencer
who's been there but doesn't have access
to all the classified information said
there's based on their investigation
there is zero evidence of a single event
in which Israel intentionally caused
harm to civilians journalists or even
the world Central Kitchen event where
people don't want to accept the fact
that accidents do happen especially in
the fog and friction of urban combat
which people just don't have a clue of
like of what what it actually takes and
they get to this point where they
interpret situations right you and I
think that was really important you said
that because even uh the way that war
crimes work from the ridiculous use of
the word genocide a big factor is to
intention based on the information you
have at the moment you take your action
not the results so everybody sees you
know footage of of Gaza especially
Northern Gaza or Seas like you said the
unfortunate every one of them is
travesty the civilian death and they
they interpret well of course that means
Israel did all that on purpose and that
there was no alternative which I think
could be a part of the conversation is
that people who have no information on
how War works like you said people woke
up to not the Syrian War not to the last
30 years of Wars not to real massacres
of you Russia taking 20,000 babies out
of Ukraine they woke up to and want to
start interp ing based on their
knowledge the wars that they see based
on short clips and videos or they think
that there's an alternative which I
actually think is I've been arguing with
literally like national leaders who have
propositioned that there was another way
um and that's not the history of warfare
one example I'll give is there was a you
know very another news story of Israel
has used more 2,000 pound bombs than any
other military in the last 30 years
which is a true statement but it is
given as a negative to paint the picture
that Israel had a choice it could have
not used those bombs it could have just
not did bombing at all and the actual
evidence shows that that has been a a
feeling between in mini Wars that if you
just bomb less there'll be less damage
less civilian casualties it's actually
the inverse like in the 1945 Battle of
Manila where there were 4,000 Americans
and UK and turnes prisoners of War being
held by the Japanese in the city of
Manila and the general General MacArthur
said you no air power I don't want you
destroying Manila I don't want
inappropriate civilian casualties and
still the the military moved forward and
there were 100,000 civilian deaths
because of the complexity of urban
combat you think that if there would
have been just less bombing or the fact
that the actual n clure of a 2,000lb
bomb we haven't talked about it yet but
one of the things the difficulty for the
IDF is that the enemy there's no enemy
on the surface they're underground and
they're deep underground so yes Israel
has used more 2,000lb bonds because
they're the only military in the history
of War who's faced an enemy so deep
underground under civilian structures in
which a tool like that is the weapon
that can get to that military
Target okay so talk to me about I guess
you can talk about Urban Warfare
generically and and Guerilla Warfare
generically but what is unusual about
this war what is Israel facing that we
didn't face in Iraq or Afghanistan or
didn't face to the same degree and what
is novel about what they have done in
the direction of being more scrupulous
more more averse to producing collateral
damage than we or any other Army has
been in the past sure if you're going to
say just that that all that Israel has
really done wrong is to fail to
anticipate how colossally badly the the
pr war was going to go for them and they
failed to embed journalists who could
give credible real-time information
about all the efforts they're making to
not kill the wrong people and I agree
it's been you I you know I don't know if
it would have mattered had they done
that I I certainly hope it would have
mattered but I agree that they have not
done a good job at all of changing the
narrative but if that's their only crime
what have they done that has been
scrupulous and compassionate and Beyond
the usual course of action for an army
launched from a democratic State uh into
combat sure so two easy actually things
to pick apart one is what did they face
that no military has faced and what did
they do that no military has done so on
what they have faced one is just the
proximity to the enemy right that this
is is not hundreds of miles away so if
you if you want to use a US military
example it just fails step one just a
proximity to the actual National
Security the existential threat so
that's October 7th right but the war is
being waged in isight of the homes of
those you know the size of the combatant
so 4,000 combatants launching Rockets
over the head of the military so no
military in modern history has faced in
combat B who is launching 12,000 Rockets
over their heads headed for their homes
behind them the tunnels of course so you
know this this what Hamas had built over
15 years hasn't been seen in war period
yes there's been tunnels in war before
but the fact that there were 400 miles
of tunnels ranging from 15 ft to 250 ft
underground where no military munition
could reach but solely under civilian
sites so civilian homes
hospitals schools un facilities on
purpose so they could deploy this what
they call this human shield strategy
because you know non-state actors
terrorists whoever have learned from the
history of really you know modern Wars
in which you have a military who follows
the law of war against a combatant who
doesn't that they use the laws which in
urban combat you immediately enter and
you already have restrictions on the use
of force right you can't that's the
under Ling thing is do not Target
civilians and only target military sites
and that's really hard to do in urban
areas but there's lots of rules that we
can talk about on that so hamash
deployed this human shield strategy but
also a human sacrifice strategy where
and I don't know why the world just
won't take for on its head what Hamas
says like literally they tell you these
things and the world's like yeah but
they're the fact that they say they want
as many of their civilians to die as
possible
M and one evidence of that is the fact
that there are 400 mil of tunnels in
Gaza and not one civilian is allowed in
them the entire population 2.2 million
could fit in hamas's tunnels with ease
where you take in another example in
another War like Ukraine's war where the
civilians did seek refuge in the subway
tunnels and underground and the hostages
so the fact that you know that Hamas
immediately took over 240 hostages which
really gets to the time variable right
so in understanding the challenge that
the idea face you have to factor in you
know the Rockets the tunnels the
hostages which really get to your
alternatives on well just wait just
pursue some other strategy and and just
leave your hostages in captivity yeah so
all those variables no military has
faced that in modern times none and I
could you know I can go back to World
War II and give you some variables like
the Battle of Manila 1945 the 1950
Battle of Soul which will get you close
but not all those variables and
especially not the variables in which
Israel relies on the support of the
United States all war is a contest of
will so Israel knowing that of course
everybody agreed it had the right to of
self-defense and to launch the war but
to to know you have to maintain the will
of the International Community in how
you respond that's a little different
than let's say post 911 when of course
the United States saw a coalition but it
was going to to and it did take action
now on what did the IDF do which again
is unique to actually a novel in
preventing we call it civilian harm
mitigation so everything you do to not
have civilians hurt and the biggest
thing that really the only thing that
has been very effective in wars in
modern history or even World War II is
if the conditions allow wait and
Evacuate the cities of the civilians so
this is a very like the the biggest
thing you can do so Israel waited after
October 7th one it had to mobilize but
then it it still waited three more weeks
and sent notice especially to Northern
Gaza where the the greatest meat of
these 40,000 Hamas members organized in
30 different battalions the greatest
really population of them were in
Northern Gaza so it evacuated the entire
Northern Gaza and they got criticized
for doing that and and telling this the
civilians to please leave these combat
areas and they evacuated 850,000 of the
million population in Northern Gaza and
they were criticized for that but it was
it was the standard and how you do that
through the dropping of Flyers was
pretty straightforward of course Israel
because they had the capability and
they've developed what nobody else in
war does started also using phone calls
text messages pre-recorded voice
messages to help with those evacuations
then they deployed drones with with
speakers and then they deployed speakers
um dropped out of par you know from the
sky on parachutes to help evacuate with
a very high level Fidelity so that way
when you enter the environment you
there's less civilians caught in the
middle of it so they waited and I heard
reports that Hamas tried to prevent
people from evacuating to make their
human shield and Human Sacrifice
strategy more effective are those
reports credible 100% I mean and again
we have to believe those reports as much
as we the other reports of of course the
IDF told the civilians what road to use
and where to go and Hamas targeted them
or sent them messages took their cars
preventing the civilians from leaving
and and most of that comes from the
civilians in the environment and where
that information comes and as when you
say Hamas targeted those points of
egress you mean like Hamas snipers shot
people on those roads correct and and
bomb mortared those roads and this is
the thing where people will say the
other report is that Israel targeted the
exact areas in which they told the
civilians to go which is you know
usually misinformation has a kernel of
Truth where like Hamas would set up a
rocket firing position next to a
humanitarian zone right and then launch
rockets so Israel would respond to that
and then the world would only pick up on
Israel as targeting the humanitarian
areas they told civilians to go to get
out of the combat area yeah really the
the only you know that's a safer area
but Hamas again using the human shield
has wanted that narrative and this is
also the the difference too to Hamas as
a combatant as opposed to most other
Urban combatants even Isis right so Isis
um in the Battle of mul used human
Shields but it its purpose wasn't to get
as many civilians killed as possible nor
was there a way to really hold the
people into the area so this again gets
to the the uniqueness to this war is the
fact that the civilians can't get out
into Egypt they were identified this
this place in southern Gaza that was
identified which is now the AL masasi
humanitarian Zone it was picked because
it was one of the few areas that the IDF
believed there were less Hamas tunnels
or Hamas military in in in in general
and initially the the civilians wouldn't
go there but yes the humas and really we
can talk about what Hamas did during the
temporary ceasefire that happened for
the hostage exchange which nobody
comments on is that during that
ceasefire Hamas sent hundreds of
thousands of civilians into areas and
repopulated them with over 300% of the
civilians that were there before the war
so like in K Yunis Hamas increased a
population of communist by 300% before
the IDF could start their operation in
that area what what do you make of the
difference you know albe it a a subtle
one in how Isis the Islamic State used
human Shields you versus how Hamas is is
doing it you say that the Islamic State
wasn't seeking though they used human
Shields they weren't seeking to maximize
the loss of civilian life I mean the the
only way I can interpret that is to
imagine that Hamas recognizes that in
this conflict with Israel the role that
Global opinion plays is you know is a
lever that they really have in hand and
can easily pull and the and the way to
pull it is to maximize the loss of
civilian life because you they know
Israel will be blamed for every single
body and that the blaming of Israel will
matter in a way that I can imagine the
Islamic State did not imagine they had
that same kind of Leverage with in
fighting the US and and you know much
less you know local Iraqi and you know
forces in you know being led by the US
yeah it's a great question is you really
have to look at in war the strategy of
both sides so this has been trying to
have people understand that the Hamas
military strategy in the war is not to
defeat the idea as in in military force
it is also not to hold terrain just in
those two objectives it's different than
Isis who was trying to hold the terrain
that it had captured to include mul
which is the capital of their
self-proclaimed caliphate they were
really trying to hold the terrain the
Hamas strategy in accordance with what
they have done has always been about
just biing time and why they built this
vast tunnel network was to be in the
tunnels when IDF came I don't think they
assumed that Israel would maintain the
will to continue even this far but it
was always about Bing time for the world
to stop the IDF like which has happened
in Israel's previous Wars Isis didn't
have that strategy as their military
strategy or their Grand strategy where
Hamas again again according to them
their grand strategy is all this is just
in the pursuit of a political objective
to Israel not existing and for there to
be a Palestinian state which in includes
everything that Israel is currently
sitting on right now that gets into this
military aspect where you see a vast
difference between Isis and Hamas both
used Terror tactics one was a full out
government of this region received
billions of dollars to improve the
region funneled most of that money into
building this Terror military that had
the intention of just causing the IDF to
not be successful and that has been
where again they say that the civilians
should die to achieve that goal and
they're fine with the all of them dying
you in the pursuit of this like you said
there's a fundamental misunderstanding
of what Hamas and this radical
interpretation of Islam which leads them
to pursue this strategy in real time
yeah it's um I I don't think I can
really recover from my astonishment that
people can't see this uh more easily
than they than they have I mean when you
look at the protests on college campuses
which now have devolved into in many
cases explicit support for Hamas right
they're not even trying to draw a line
between the Palestinian cause and Hamas
right there's just and needless to say
there's no concern for return of
hostages and all these calls for a
ceasefire but they're just actually you
know they're just nakedly supporting
Hamas and yet what should be obvious to
everyone is that there there's nobody
who cares less about saving the lives of
Palestinian
non-combatants than Hamas right I mean
this is when you're looking to see who
is the the most callous about the lives
of Palestinian children it is uh senoir
and his colleagues down there
underground and I just find it so
remarkable that people have you know
either lost sight of that or have never
seen it and that or seeing it is somehow
doesn't matter in how they're
interpreting the situation yeah I mean
this is the uniqueness I agree with you
it's it's it's shocking and concerning
where our world's best academic
institutions are creating the dumbest
students who can't critically think or
get access to their own information this
has been the you basically the survey
based analysis of the protest like do
you know which river in the sea means do
you know who Hamas is what do you know
what happened on October 7th it's it's
just shocking but I will give you have
to analyze it almost empirically on how
Hamas has been able to tap into all
these human storytelling techniques of
the you know the the weak versus the
powerful the oppressed versus the
oppressor and the ideal that there is
just an alternative if you just stop you
know just see fire now everything will
be better if we just cease fire and this
has been my position from the beginning
as a student of war is that if Hamas was
allowed to survive the war period as in
Hamas not the ideal which again I think
the world to include military analysts
have just every day since October 7th
tried to compare this to a
counterinsurgency counterterrorism
campaign which we just are comfortable
with over the last 30 years is what we
know rather than a conventional War
mindset of this is a political body with
a military holding terrain with
political objectives but the fact that
the world thinks that you know if you
just stop fighting just stop the war
right like you said they woke up to what
war looks like and that it's intolerable
war is hell it is death and destruction
but one they want to fail to recognize
what the idea have done to limit and
restrict themselves and and to prevent
civilian harming but they also think
that the world will be a better place if
the war just stops that if Hamas who
they are today the Hamas that was
October 7th in my interpretation if they
survive the war they have achieved a
massive victory in the history of War
they struck Israel and as they say as
Iran says Israel and then through Israel
the United States if they survive that
they become these giant Legends I mean
they'll make statues out of them they'll
have there'll be celebration days in
Iran for Hamas leadership who pulled off
October 7th and survived it and that we
will see a much more violent Middle East
and world if they survive yeah I I fully
agree with that premonition I just think
it's the only answer to the triumphalism
of jihadism is to defeat it right
there's no that it has to be a stark
defeat and so I guess my next question
for you is How likely is that I mean I
guess before you answer that you can
perhaps tell us what the IDF has
actually accomplished thus far in Gaza
and and now as I said we're we're
waiting to see if they're going to go
into Rafa and I think we both think they
should but what has the IDF done what is
left to do and How likely is it that
they can destroy Hamas and what and what
does that what is destroying Hamas
actually mean does it mean killing every
last member of Hamas does it mean just
killing the the leadership or you know
bringing them otherwise bringing them to
justice and then we should talk about
what conceivable aftermath there might
be if they do what can be done here so
what have they done what can be done and
uh what does it look like afterwards
sure so what they have done and
especially keeping in mind what the
objectives were you know return to
hostages destroy Hamas as a military
organization with the ability to harm
Israel and secure Israel's borders so if
if we compare to has Israel been
successful thus far right I can't tell
you who's going to achieve ultimate
victory in the war yet thus far Israel
has historically cleared dense Urban
train at a pace and with a despite the
numbers low collateral damage low
civilian casualty count they of the 30
battalions 20 4 of those being light
infantry battalions of Hamas they have
destroyed 20 of the 24 active battalions
they have cleared 75% of Gaza as in
broken apart those functioning military
organizations um they have identified
the weapons capability right because the
Rockets are a big part of hamas's
military capability that they had immen
to include the manufacturing
capabilities so these deep buried
weapons manufacturing as in rocket
production plants underground that
Israel has found it has destroyed much
of hamas's Terror tunnel networks it has
returned half the hostages home through
military pressure which led to
negotiations and it has now created a
situation in which there's only four
battalions the Hamas leadership and the
remaining at the time we're talking you
know 133 Israeli hostages left to
fulfill the objectives of Israel so
that's what they've done so far now the
question of destroy Hamas that gets
everybody going right let me just add
one footnote to what you just said so so
obviously we we started this
conversation talking about how
unreliable all the numbers are and now
you just kind of went through
confidently detailing the numbers in
some basic sense giving a proportion of
Hamas fighters versus uh non-combatants
but again what you're doing here is
basically taking hamas's numbers of dead
at face value which we can't really do
but you know one can imagine it's a
something like a worst case scenario
number like at the moment 33,000 dead
and we're taking idf's claim to have
killed something like 13,000 combatants
and just using those numbers as as the
framework for the proportion right right
and this is really gets a bigger
question on that we're in a world in
which nobody trusts anybody right so
they're not going to trust anything
Israel says the United States says
United Kingdom says says but they'll
trust some I says which is unique but
let's say I trust everybody's numbers
that's where I get to and everybody's
statements to include homes I'm taking
all the information available and and
making these statements based on what we
know like the 33,000 are we confident
that the that Hamas had
40,000 fighters in the first place I
mean are those Hamas numbers are those
IDF numbers or that do both sides agree
on the number of Hamas Fighters yeah
that's a great question no it's it's a
combination of both Hamas leadership
both the political Wing in Qatar and the
military Wing in in Gaza and the IDF and
Us and other intelligence agencies
estimates based on a collection right
what we call all Source analysis a
collection of both what Hamas says what
the IDF says what we can gain and we
have to achieve some type of okay we we
will agree that this is a number right
so when you say they have uh remind me
the proportion of Hamas battalions that
have been destroyed or or fatally
compromised is is what so 20 of the 24
basically infantry kind of terrain
holding battalions before the war there
was an estimate of 30 battalions which
includes like the people who shoot the
Rockets the headquarters everything so
of the Hamas military 20 battalions of
their 24 battalions that they had on
October 7th have been destroyed and by
destroyed it means broken apart so
they're no longer functioning as a
military unit able to do their their
assigned Mission whether it's defend or
attack and and how do we know is it in
terms of the damage to the tunnels I
mean what what are you picturing or what
do you what are you aware of being true
there where I mean it's 400 miles of
tunnels is just it's just staggering and
I when I say that number or hear it I'm
I can't shake the feeling of of
incredulity right I it just seems
impossible but accepting that something
like that is true Israel could not have
destroyed no matter how many 2,000lb
bombs they dropped much of that Network
maybe they took out crucial nodes in the
network what what do you imagine has
happened and what is the result I mean
Are We Now talking about Hamas Fighters
and Israeli hostages trapped inside
tunnels and you know dying of starvation
or what I mean what is What is the
reality of of that destruction yeah it's
really hard to get a true estimate like
nobody's given the number of sheer
number you know miles of tunnels that
have been discovered and destroyed but
given the way Urban Terrain is cleared
the reporting of over a thousand shafts
identified the number of tunnels in
which the IDF have controlled destroyed
as in using explosives to destroy I mean
I was in one in December along the
border of Israel and Gaza that was 2 and
1 half miles long it was an invasion
tunnel if you were just to take up the
number of ones that they have publicly
announced and shown the world it's still
many many miles but it is a great
question and I've gotten this question
as somebody who studies underground
Warfare too it's like when is will they
ever be able to destroy all the tunnels
absolutely not and if you get to the
rization of like how is it possible to
have hundreds of miles of tunnels
underneath a space that is only you know
Gaza Strip is 25 mil long at the widest
part 7 mil wide and that is the really
the uniqueness to what Hamas has been
digging over 15 years so many different
levels of tunnels and the idef have
shown the world much of that and shown
how they both identified like here's a
two mile here's a three mile tunnel here
here we are destroying it um it's really
hard to get that estimate but in the
clearing of this is why you couldn't
have done it with just bombing right you
could not have bombed your way to this
nor could you it's going to be hard do
it quickly identify every tunnel and you
have to prioritize what is a you know
certain level of a tunnel and you won't
ever be able to destroy them all because
you you're not going to find them all
but you you get to a certain level of
fidelity and what they have discovered
is more than anybody thought that was
ever there are IDF soldiers going down
into the time tunnels and engaging Hamas
fighters in shooting battles underground
or are they simply finding shafts and
dropping explosives into them and blow
and and considering that part of the
tunnel destroyed when it when it all
collapses I mean what are they sending
robots down there or are they doing all
of those things what what is underground
Warfare like in this case yeah all above
so absolutely like it started like you
we were talking about you know with
identifying
known key bunkers and underground spaces
and and hitting those with with aerial
Munitions moving forward and as the IDF
moved forward like in Northern Gaza if
they found a tunnel shaft they would
stop bring up the special to Israel um
the unique forces trained only for
underground Warfare you know they have
underground dogs or dogs made for tunnel
Warfare and they actually lost over 30
of a very large military working dog
because once you had find a tunnel then
you bring up these special units there
were firefights that happened in tunnels
they're they're very few though because
once the tunnel has been found Hamas has
booby trapped it and moved on or to
another tunnel and and there was a
uniqueness to the approach in Northern
Gaza versus by time I visited in
December or no in February in conun
there was a different approach at one
point the IDF were flooding the tunnels
with both C1 water in fresh water to
flush the en the Hamas out and to clear
the explosives everything has been tried
M but and by time I get to con Yunis
really which is this is a Hamas space
and Hamas is using the tunnels by time I
visit the IDF in you know just a month
and a half ago they were entering the
tunnels before Hamas knew they were in
the tunnels and using basically taking
control of the tunnels and maneuvering
on Hamas at the same time moving above
ground but this is the challenge of
underground Warfare you have to develop
new types of equipment yes they used the
robots the drones that can work under
the ground um yes they destroyed and
really there's only a few ways you can
truly destroy your tunnel like the
flooding that did not work to destroy a
tunnel because the tunnels are made of
concrete and they have uh some of them
have drainage in them you know it's just
it's just not as a solid tube so the
water's not going to stay in there where
explosive force is really the only tried
and true way to destroy a tunnel and you
have to you string a tunnel you'll
string mines together along the full
width of a tunnel which if you imagine
is 2 miles long it takes a lot of
explosives and how are they doing any of
this while keeping the lives of the
hostages in mind what sort of
intelligence do you think they have
about the the location of the hostages
when they're simply blowing up a tunnel
how can they be confident that they're
not killing hostages or burying them
alive yeah mean is this information you
have and and if so what do you know
about the seems to me that the existence
of the hostages as is intended
complicates this picture immensely I
mean it complicates the prosecution of
the war immensely in in all kinds of
ways as you pointed out it sets the
clock ticking in a way that wouldn't
otherwise be true and the idea that you
can just sort of bide your time and
decide you know what you know how you
want to respond over the course of weeks
and months and years that goes out
completely out the window once you've
got hundreds of people now being held
hostage and and mistreated underground
but it also it just it's very hard to
imagine how they could be confidently
destroying tunnels with Hamas in them
knowing that there the hostages are
somewhere underground right no it's a
it's a great topic from really the
highest strategic level down to that
tactical level where you're not going to
especially destroy a tunnel without
first investigating what's in the tunnel
um so most of the destruction outside of
the aerial bombardments which are
intelligence driven like they know what
they're targeting a military target
underground and they have some form of
human intelligence signals intelligence
some other aspect to know whether or not
a hostage is present with the Enemy
combatant that they're striking but once
you get you know close and you're
sending those drones the dogs everything
in the tunnel the dest destroying that I
was talking about is really after you
exploited what's in the tunnel because
of that immense risk that I agree with
you complicates every aspect of the war
is the fact that you know your enem is
underground but there is also the
possibility of your your citizens your
the hostages in there which leads to all
the even the the highest level um which
I argued in a Wall Street Journal
article that the ideal that there's an
alternative to the way that Israel has
done it right which does like you said
would be just to wait a few years use
intelligence to find the hostages and do
raids which is really a fallacy it's
never happened where you have an enemy
environment like that because a raid
relies on lots of intelligence and
immense surprise and some type of like a
permissive because you've surprised
whether it was the Osama Bin Laden raid
and the Pakistan Pakistan didn't know we
were coming for him they didn't they say
they didn't know he was there but to
imagine that you were going to build
enough intelligence to one day just to
do a bunch of raids into Gaza a hostile
environment by definition who knows
you're coming and that you could
eventually achieve your goal of bringing
the hostages home a different way is not
true it's just never it's not
historically backed up but that has led
to this idea of like you said just just
going to take you a lot of time just
just leave them in captivity let Hamas
survive for now and we'll figure out a
different way it's just not backed up by
history yeah especially what to return
to again the probably the least
comfortable topic here the imaginary
line between the public sentiment of the
Palestinians and Hamas I mean just
you're talking about a population that
if it's not entirely supportive of the
project of keeping these hostages enough
people are supportive of it that the
problem is shrouded by a hostile
population that is seems happy to
collaborate with hamas's project of
keeping the hostages for as long as they
want to keep them yeah but I think this
again I definitely 100% that factors
into what could be done about the
situation but in war I'm a very I I'm in
such a proponent for the law of War it's
people just don't understand because
it's meant to put bounds on the
brutality of war and that there is such
thing as a you know a innocent civilian
or non-combatant but people don't
understand what it takes for that person
that to partake in the hostilities and
make themselves a combatant you don't
have to be carrying a weapon you could
be reporting on the enemy that's coming
you could be doing building things
there's so many other aspects of being a
combatant versus a non-combatant where
yes in this world of Hamas where they
wear civilians use human Shields use the
hospitals use everything they can to
make Israel look bad it's it is the
greatest
challenge for any Soldier let alone an
Israeli soldier to operate within these
all these different challenges actually
let's Linger on that point for a second
because this is this might help people
interpret some video which is really any
way you look at it it is shocking video
that I've seen I I think at one point I
saw Joe Rogan on his podcast show the
video and respond to it as really any
untutored person would as just he
believes he's seen clear evidence of IDF
war crimes and and the video is just men
who do not appear to be armed being
bombed right I mean and this for all I
know this could be video from some other
theater of combat I mean it could have
been drone a drone Attack On By Us by on
on men in Iraq I don't you know I don't
know actually the provence of the video
but assuming this was where these were
Palestinian men you know walking among
amid Rubble being killed and they're not
in the process of firing RPGs or or
Rockets uh and they didn't even appear
to be armed how is it possible that a
strike like that could have been
Justified on its face it looks
impossible to justify right really
especially with somebody who's never
seen you know doesn't have any
comprehension of the way the law of War
Works War Works in general and I watched
Joe interpret that video and he be he
and he and just by the words he was
saying I knew that he didn't have a
framework in which to understand what
the world was watching in that 20 second
clip right he said unarmed kids he
actually said kids which is getting to
this definition of what is a you know
what is a a kid or or an adult where
that line is drawn in that combat
situation right which everybody
acknowledge it's a combat zone you know
that 30 second clip doesn't give me any
ability to understand what was going on
other than there is somebody who is
struck with a bomb no idea on what that
person was doing before that video
started did they come out of a tunnel
did they do something before and then
they were did the IDF already know who
those individuals were um again you can
be a member of Hamas like a designated
member and that's that makes you a
combatant it has nothing to do with if
you're carrying a weapon at the moment
or if you're you're shooting at the F at
the moment you're a member of the the
enemy Force there's so much to that
video that is unknown especially like
what were they doing before where did
they come from what were their who were
they what were their intentions that
clearly yes the IDF Meant to hit them so
they have to let's say if you did an
investigation say this is again where
people look at the the end results but
the IDF under question would had to show
like okay how did you know that was a
military Target because clearly they use
Precision guided ammunition to strike
just those four individuals which again
gets to the kind of the false negative
that you would have to proves and of
course they're targeting civilians right
that that's what they do like no you
have to see what the war the law of war
the war crime accusation requires you to
know what they were doing we want to
interpret we see the explosion like
clearly they were targeting those
unarmed civilian kids like there's so
much wrong with we don't know so it's a
crucial detail that you just you don't
know what they were doing moments or
minutes before I mean perhaps the full
video is showing people who just planted
an IED or did something that was
obviously you the behavior of of
combatants and now they're walking away
and then they get targeted or who they
were like literally the fact that Joe
says look clearly they're not carrying
any weapons like okay that's a data
point but that doesn't mean that you're
not an enemy in in in in this combat
area I mean the the power of facial
recognition and all these other aspects
you have to know what the IDF knew at
the time they took that strike and
clearly they they targeted those
individuals that's a fact because they
did it very precisely yeah well I mean
again that for those who haven't seen
the footage this is um the footage was
not at night right so it's not it
doesn't suffer from the same and there
were no these people weren't hidden
inside of car right so it's not
analogous to the world Central Kitchen
false ID problem where they were clearly
striking people they were intending to
strike they just were the wrong people
in the world kitchen yeah yeah yeah well
so you've spoken about what the IDF has
already done and you you seem to believe
that Hamas really does have to be
defeated at the end of this what is
reasonable to hope for there I assume
this means that the the IDF by
definition has to go into Rafa what what
would destroying Hamas look like and
what would the aftermath look like I
mean what what you know if if they have
destroyed Hamas perhaps not down to the
last man but you know rendered the whole
Hamas project obviously a failure and
now Gaza is this hellscape that has no
one to rule it except uh whatever
lunatics can rise up out of the ashes
and be you know nearly as extreme and
irresistible as Hamas it's not going to
be a stable uh Victory and certainly
World opinion will continue to cut
against Israel there what what does
destroying Hamas look like in the best
case and how can they conceivably manage
the aftermath yeah it's a great question
it really gets to this I guess this
misin interpretation of what does them
what does it mean to destroy Hamas where
people say it's not possible right
because they mix you know destroy the
idea of Hamas versus the to destroy what
Hamas was on October 6th and its
military capabilities and all of his
resources that it it created and and
immersed and smuggled in and it was sent
in everything like that one thing is
that what the best case scenario is and
I don't agree although it is the most
likely scenario that it it requires a a
full ground Invasion into Southern Gaza
right Rafa City Rafa refugee camp the
other areas because Hamas could
surrender tomorrow haras could surrender
to include disarm agreement to disarm
themselves and surrender anybody who
partook on October 7th and committed
those heinous crimes they could give all
the hostages back and that would lead to
a much lower intensity operation that
would still in my opinion be required
because in order to destroy Hamas what
it was on October 7th you have to search
for its military capability its
remaining rocket Supply its remaining
smuggling tunnels it's remaining weapons
manufacturing capability you would still
have to search Southern Gaza in my
opinion to achieve the goal of
destroying Hamas as both the ruling
power because you don't fight an
Insurgency against the ruling power you
fight an Insurgency for a the people or
a government against an Insurgency but
you you have to remove homas from Power
you have to remove their military
capability so best case scen scenario is
that the remaining four battalions are
destroyed as functioning units able to
do their mission the Hamas military
leadership remaining in Gaza is killed
or captured all the hostages are
returned home then like you said is
absolutely the next phase that will
determine whether the World Views it as
your success or not because the
challenge of Gaza is the that next
phase that de postconflict phase of
rebuilding reestablishing a different
framework right this is gets the ideal
which I know will be a big challenge
because it hasn't been there yet is a
viable partner who actually has the the
pursuit of a better life for the people
of Gaza as their number one priority and
not the destruction of Israel as their
number one priority this has been the
history of the Israel Palestine conflict
right is is having viable partner who
will acknowledge Israel should exist to
disavow terrorism and and pursue a a
path to include by action of really
caring for the people so once Hamas is
destroyed which in my opinion has to be
done then Israel has to help in creating
the next governance the power structures
the security framework but also and I
think they will ensure that whatever
comes next in in self-determination
isn't able to gain that much military
capability for the sole purpose of doing
October 7th or launching Rockets as
their primary goal yeah which suggests
that you know in the even in an Ideal
World a two-state solution can't really
be two states in any normal sense we're
not talking about a state that has its
own Army Etc because we would have a
have to have a very different set of
facts on the ground for Israel to
imagine they can live you next to a a
Palestinian state after October 7th
right which this has been the you know
the the great lie is the ideal that
Israel has been the only hurdle to a St
State solution with Palestinians and
Israelis living side by side in harmony
the great lie is that the greatest
greatest hurdle to that was Israel
versus organizations whether it's the PA
Palestinian Authority Hamas whatever it
is whose soul whole you know ideal its
construction everything it does is
actually to attack Israel rather than
pursue a better life within the it's
almost like diplomatic laziness just
two-state solution has been especially
the US administration's goal right but
they can't nobody can articulate what
that actually is in reality in real
terms and and it has been which is now
leading them the uninformed of the world
on that's the solution to the violence
two stat solution which October 7th
can't become hamas's Independence Day
right it can't become Palestinian
Independence Day they did October 7th
and then they should get you know all
the things in return just to make the
violence stop that would just lead to a
much more violent world as well but it's
it's really like diplomatic Leist to
think that that's the solution like
without any recognizing the Decades of
administrations who have pursued that
objective and failed yeah I mean the
reasons for that failure as you point
out have have almost never been
acknowledged but it it is another one of
these obvious and and absolute
asymmetries that strangely everyone
seems to ignore which is that Israel has
wanted a two-state solution I mean not
everyone in Israel but but a majority of
Israelis certainly have wanted a
two-state solution they have wanted to
live in peace with a Palestinian
neighbor that would live in peace with
them but that has not been reciprocated
on the other side there has been a
pervasive commitment to not the
Palestinians getting the state they want
alongside of Israel but rather for the
annihilation of Israel the existence of
Israel has been the thing that has
always been put in question on the
Palestinian side and that's just not a
symmetrical situation so you you would
need a
Palestinian regime and a Palestinian
population that actually wanted to live
in peace alongside Israel for there to
be anything like a basis for a two-state
solution right and this is I mean to get
back to the now what is what is what
comes after Hamas I don't know and I
don't think Israel knows but it knows
like I can talk in certainties versus
the uncertainty that Hamas has to be
destroyed for the Peace of the Middle
East and the Peace of Israel and the
Palestinian people like that's step one
what comes day after the day after
really matters and how the war will be
viewed so Israel has a lot of decisions
but so do the people of Gaza but don't
you see the the untenability of it being
a prolonged Israeli occupation of Gaza I
mean the picture of the aftermath that
you're envisioning does that include a
an internationalization of the whole
project where you bring in some of the
Arab states to figure out how to pacify
and rebuild Gaza or are you actually
picturing a many years of Israel
essentially being the government in Gaza
or back stoping the the the whatever the
Palestinian government is yeah that's a
great question so I don't Envision that
at all because not because of my own
thoughts because Israel says they don't
want that that was tried and then they
left in 2005 and and Hamas was elected
in 2008 and said that's not what we want
despite the accusations of occupation
since then and the blockade and the
partti and all these
misinformed opinions but you the the
other proposition you provided with like
you know an Arab Nation all these other
actors is also not present right this is
the Egypt wants nothing to do with the
people of Gaza they're a part of this if
there was a multinational Arab Nation
Coalition who could assist and and of
course there'll be rebuilding but you
know for Israel not to have a a part of
that as in for another terrorist regime
to because the United States wanted
there to be an election
in Gaza and Hamas was elected both in
Gaza and the west bank and then just
west the Palestinian Authority just said
we don't view that as a legitimate
election that whatever comes next you
know I can't Israel says they don't want
occupation but they will of course be a
part of ensuring that another Hamas
which they're having to do in real time
and they and they do own that right they
they own some of that to prevent another
Hamas not just to destroy and leave it
in chaos absolutely agree with that and
that's the the history of such
operations as well and I agree with you
that in order for this to work there has
to be multiple other nations involved on
identifying who is the other viable
partner in Gaza how to reild rebuild all
the structures not just the buildings so
that they're on a path to a better life
than what Hamas was giving them I know
we're getting to the end of our lotted
time here but I just want to ask you the
um not so simple question of what do you
think Israel should do must do will do
about Hezbollah to the north yeah that's
a a great question I wish more people
would ask it and recognize and and tell
the facts about how hezb and in my last
trip back in February I went up to
Northern Israel to the blue line I
walked the line of where hesa is
attacking since October 8th it entered
the war a second front was there and
Hezbollah has been attacking since
October 8th with not just Rockets but
taking out all the security post and
cameras and and sending people across
the blue line and violating the UN
Security Council I don't you know they
say again if you if you want to listen
to them say the reason they did that was
because of the war in Gaza which is
interesting since they started on
October 8th and Israel hadn't even
declared and conducted operations in
Gaza yet but the situation I can say
with certainty can't continue there's
80,000 people just in Northern Israel
who who haven't been home in last 6
months who living in hotels when I go
there they're in the hotels that I stay
at because of the daily threat of hezb
and hezb is a much larger problem and
Israel had and other nations have been
pursuing a political solution because it
all doesn't have to turn into war for
Hezbollah to back up to the UN Security
Council agreed framework and stop
attacking Israel but if they're not
willing I don't see how Israel doesn't
have to all o use Force to secure its
northern border and allow its citizens
which 880,000 like the number almost
surpasses people's ability to imagine
what that looks like on the ground with
all these cities evacuated 80,000 who
can't go home because Hezbollah attacks
every day I I know Hezbollah is a larger
problem in that they're a larger force a
better trained Forest better Armed Force
they have more Rockets which is to say
it's a in the end is probably a more
important problem to solve but I'm
wondering is is it as large a problem
with respect to the prospect of Civilian
casualties if they decided to launch a
war into Lebanon I mean if the IDF woke
up tomorrow and and was fully committed
to destroying Hezbollah as quickly as
possible uh with all of its all the
applicable Force available to it would
they be by definition creating as much
collateral damage as they have in Gaza
or are things different up in the north
and are the the combatants much easier
to Target without the same kind of loss
of of civilian life right yeah it's a
great question of course it's less
density there are still urban areas in
southern Lebanon that would require the
restraint on the use of force but there
is a lot more military real because
Hezbollah didn't developed the same
strategy as Hamas of of course it went
underground and it's actually called the
land of tunnels in southern Lebanon of
course that's what militaries do to
protect their systems and there's
hundreds of miles in southern Lebanon
but unlike Hamas hezb didn't build them
solely underneath civilians to get
civilians killed yes it would be a much
different situation although the scale
is 10 times right hundreds of thousands
of hez Fighters with you know estimates
of tens of if not hundreds of thousands
of rockets but they are also much more
targetable from a military stance
without the civilian harm because
they're but they're in mountainous
terrain they're more protected it would
still be a very big challenge for the
idea to defeat Hezbollah but you you get
to this question which again people
won't recognize that October 7th was an
existential threat to Israel not just to
Southern Israel they wanted to get to
Jerusalem Hezbollah poses an existential
threat to Israel so it has to respond
hopefully not with military force but if
that if you have to then you have to and
it would take an immense War to defeat
Hezbollah let alone just push them back
to they're no longer threatening
Israel I hesitate to pull the question
of Iran in here because I I know we're
short on time but do you have a uh an
encapsulated version of what you think
can and should and will be done with
respect to Iran either by Israel alone
or by some Coalition of forces yeah I
mean I do and I can I can I think I can
do it shortly that of course Iran is the
head of all these snakes first we have
to acknowledge that Hezbollah Hamas and
the houthis are all Iranian backed
organizations who are trained funded
financed and directed by Iran themselves
so Hezbollah says it like could we could
we at least believe these groups when
they say that they act in accordance
with Iran's Direction Iran is the big
disruptor of the Middle East will you
have some people believe October 7th
came about because Israel was close to a
bilateral relationship with Saudi Arabia
like it has with Jordan Egypt and other
Arab Nations and that was too much of a
threat to Iran who once has its ideals
of the Middle East and has pursued this
proxy war using its proxies to attack
Israel that's absolutely and what it did
on April 14th when it attacked Israel
with 300 drones cruise missiles and
ballistic missiles people just kind of
it was a part of the news but it wasn't
like that's huge that's historic like
that Israel as a nation was attacked by
Iran directly not through its multi-year
decades long use of proxies to attack
Israel but it it directly attacked and
it kind of like it was in the news
everybody wants to deescalate so it kind
of oh we'll just keep moving forward the
world has to deal with Iran not Israel
the United States has to change its
position with Iran and what what would
that change look like or or what should
it look like like I mean do do you think
I'm sort of mystified as to why even you
prior to the attack on Israel just would
the The Hoot the attack on shipping why
we had didn't decide to just exact some
price directly on Iran at that point
right like just destroying their ports
or their ability to export oil it it
seems like the deterrence has completely
failed with respect to Iran in fact it's
reversed Iran has effectively deterred
heard the United States up until this
moment strangely the United States seems
more averse to and worried about and
just frankly scared of a war with Iran
than Iran does 100% no I think it's a
great a great assessment that what we've
seen in the last six months has been a
failure of deterant it was a failure of
Israel to deter Hamas it was a failure
to deter Iran it's a failure of US
foreign policy to deter Iran from
pursuing nuclear weapons to using this
proxy forces to attack countries in the
Middle East 100% but I do understand
because I understand the significance of
State on-state Warfare where why can't
the US just strike Iran well there are
reasons why because that would open a
whole Pandora's box of second and third
order consequences but this is what you
know the luny of Iran attacking Israel
and everybody's like yeah yeah just let
it go just let it go well is the the let
go moment is it to what degree did Iran
engineer a flamboyant but
nonetheless benign attack on Israel by
telegraphing what they were going to do
allow it making it as easy as possible
for the US and the jordanians and and
the Israelis to nullify everything that
was incoming uh how sincere an attack do
we think that was and much of it was
just a kind of a face saving maneuver
which was meant to say okay let's let's
not have a war after we do this let's
settle down yeah no I think it's a great
question because it has been the great
again interpretation of the facts um the
fact that even the United States like we
had no warning there was no telegraphing
yes because it's really hard to move
stuff around in Iran without somebody
seen it you know from satellites and
everything but there was nothing that
was telegraphed and by the intentions of
what was shot at Israel and yeah so
everybody uses the 99% of it all shot
down thanks to Israel's defensive
capabilities and the fact that United
States helped and Jordan helped and
Saudi Arabia helped and like like what
world are we living in where no that was
a legitimate attack with full intention
to really cause a massive amount of
damage and civilian cases in Israel I
mean 300 drones isn't a oh I know you'll
shoot all this down ballistic and cruise
missiles I know you'll get all these you
know we all know I'm just trying to save
face no no the fact is that they
actually had and that was a technique
that has been used in like Ukraine send
a wave of drones to overload the air
defense then send in cruise and
ballistic missiles just because it was
all knocked down wasn't mean that we're
intention and actions really matter but
we're living in a world where in the the
result matters like that's that's not
the way it works yeah so that's
that's another interesting asymmetry
here the effectiveness of Israel's
defense Israel's defense in this case in
concert with their allies helping them
the effectiveness is being held against
Israel as a sign that that any further
engagement with Iran would be by
definition an overreaction because
nothing happened you know like they
tried to kill you but they didn't
succeed so like you're the one who's now
hysterical what are you doing responding
to this you know it's the same thing
that's happened for years is with you
know Israel having invested so much in
Iron Dome and in their bomb shelters
that the ineffectuality of hamas's
rockets and hezbollah's Rockets has
delivered the message to the whole world
that Israel doesn't really have an
existential problem because they
everyone can just keep going to bomb
shelters and and the Iron Dome seems to
work so you there's really no no Factor
over there all the while Hezbollah and
Hamas are really trying to kill
civilians in Israel it's an amazing
situation well John it's it's been
fantastic to get you on the podcast and
to get your expertise here you've
cleared up I think a lot of confusion
even and some of my own confusion
frankly on many of these points so um
please keep doing what you're doing and
and as the chaos proceeds I would love
to get you back here at some point to
bring us up to the minute and help us
understand what's been happening well
thanks Sam and and thanks for having me
a great conversation
[Music]
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