Record shattering: Steve Kornacki breaks down historic results in last minute 2024 polling

Summary

The latest Iowa poll indicates a surprising tie between Harris and Trump, with Harris showing stronger support among Black voters compared to Biden in 2020. Despite a national deadlock, Harris leads significantly among women on issues like abortion, while Trump maintains an advantage on inflation and immigration. As the election approaches, mixed signals emerge from various battleground states, highlighting the potential impact of voter turnout and shifting demographics. Analysts are keenly watching early voting results, particularly in key states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, to gauge the electoral landscape and identify any unexpected trends.

Takeaways

• 😀 Iowa polling shows a surprising lead for Harris, contrasting with Trump's past performance in the state.
• 😀 The NBC News poll reveals a national deadlock, with both Harris and Trump at 49%.
• 😀 Harris has a significant advantage among Black voters, with support at 87% compared to Trump's 9%.
• 😀 The gender gap is notable: Harris leads among women by 16 points, while Trump leads among men by 18 points.
• 😀 Harris's lead on abortion issues is substantial, with a 20-point advantage over Trump.
• 😀 Enthusiasm for the election is down compared to 2020, especially among nonwhite voters.
• 😀 Harris's association with Biden's low approval rating (41%) could impact her candidacy negatively.
• 😀 Trump's approval rating among voters regarding his past presidency is at 48%, a significant increase.
• 😀 Polling in battleground states shows tight margins, indicating a competitive race.
• 😀 The Iowa results could signal trends affecting other states, particularly those with similar demographics.

Q & A

What was the main finding of the Iowa poll mentioned in the transcript?

The Iowa poll indicated a tie between Harris and Trump, highlighting a significant shift since Trump won the state by nearly 10 points in previous elections.

How does Harris's support among Black voters compare to Biden's in 2020?

Harris is currently supported by Black voters at a margin of 87%-9%, which is a three-point improvement over Biden's performance with Black voters in 2020.

What notable gender gap is observed in the NBC poll?

The NBC poll shows a 34-point gender gap, with women supporting Harris by 16 points and men supporting Trump by 18 points.

What issues are voters prioritizing, according to the NBC poll?

Voters prioritized abortion as a key issue, with Harris leading Trump by 20 points on this topic, while Trump had advantages on inflation and immigration.

What was the significance of the turnout interest in the election, as per the NBC poll?

The poll indicated that 77% of respondents expressed high interest in the election, which is a decrease from the historic turnout in 2020, raising concerns about potential lower turnout among core Democratic constituencies.

How does Trump's approval rating compare to Biden's in the context of the upcoming election?

Trump's approval rating stands at 48%, which is notably higher than Biden's 41% approval rating, suggesting greater favorability for Trump as he campaigns for reelection.

What geographical trends are observed in the polling data?

There is a North-South divide in polling, with Trump performing better in southern battleground states, while Harris shows stronger support in northern states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

What potential implications does the Iowa poll have for other states?

The Iowa poll could indicate broader trends that might affect neighboring states, especially Wisconsin, which shares similar demographic characteristics.

How does early voting compare to Election Day voting in the context of party advantages?

Democrats are expected to have an advantage with early voting, particularly through mail-in ballots, while the outcome on Election Day could potentially favor Republicans.

What was the historical context regarding Iowa's political shifts?

Iowa has seen dramatic political shifts, being an Obama-Trump state with a high number of counties that switched from Democratic to Republican in recent elections.