Nightly Scan 09/27 + First Week October Outlook
Summary
TLDRThe speaker discusses their successful stock and options trades, particularly focusing on TSM, AMD, and SHOP. They express regret for not capitalizing fully on TSM's potential but highlight their substantial gains on AMD and SHOP. The speaker also shares their trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of patience and conviction. They review their current positions and future trade plans, including watching for specific price levels and potential market movements.
Takeaways
- 😀 The speaker feels great and had a successful trading day, with multiple positions yielding over 200% returns.
- 📈 TSM (TSMC) options mentioned had the potential to earn six figures but were trimmed early after an initial loss, resulting in a significant gain nonetheless.
- 💹 AMD had a strong upward movement, and the speaker anticipates a continued rise, possibly to the 175 level, with a pullback to 162 being an area of interest.
- 📊 The speaker discusses a strategy of taking profits on long-dated calls and rolling into shorter-dated contracts for more aggressive moves after resistance levels are broken.
- 🛍 MU (Micron Technology) had a significant earnings-related gap up, and the speaker is looking for a pullback to add to positions, targeting the 130 call level.
- 📉 The speaker took profits on SHOP (Shopify) after a large move up and is looking for a pullback to around 7705 to add again, with an eye on the 835 resistance level.
- 🌐 The overall market is discussed, with a potential window of weakness until October 7th, suggesting a possible pullback and the opportunity to buy dips.
- 📅 Upcoming economic events like PCE and non-farm payrolls are highlighted, which may influence market movements, particularly in the first week of October.
- 🚀 The speaker took a position in SMCI ahead of its stock split, expecting a potential pop based on a fair value gap and recent price action.
- ⏰ Patience and conviction in trading strategies are emphasized, with the speaker noting the importance of waiting for the right opportunities and sticking to a plan.
Q & A
What was the speaker's strategy with TSM 180 calls for October 18th?
-The speaker had a strategy to buy TSM 180 calls for October 18th at a low price, expecting the contracts to go as low as 1.2. They planned to average down their cost to around 200-220 if the price broke support at 168-165, but the contracts never reached their desired entry point.
How did the speaker's AMD position perform?
-The speaker's AMD position performed well, with the stock price breaking above a certain resistance level. They took profits by trimming almost all of their position, leaving only one contract. They expected the stock to continue moving up to 175 and were looking for a pullback to re-enter the position.
What was the speaker's view on MU after earnings?
-The speaker viewed MU positively after earnings, noting that the stock gapped up significantly and held above a certain level post-earnings, which they considered a good sign. They were looking to roll into 130 calls again but wanted to wait for the contracts to cool down and implied volatility to decrease.
What was the speaker's strategy for SHOP stock?
-The speaker was waiting for a pullback in SHOP stock to add to their position. They mentioned a specific level, 7705, as the prime area to add on a pullback. They were targeting a move up to fill a gap around 90-91.
How did the speaker feel about QQQ and what was their strategy?
-The speaker had a positive view on QQQ, having taken a position that went up 70%. They expected QQQ to continue its upward trajectory and were looking for a move up to 493. Their strategy was to take profits and roll to shorter dated contracts for more aggressive moves.
What was the speaker's experience with CROWD stock?
-The speaker did not provide specific details about their experience with CROWD stock in the script, but they mentioned it as one of their primary focuses along with INTC and FSLR.
What was the speaker's take on the market's potential weakness in the first week of October?
-The speaker anticipated a potential weakness in the market during the first week of October due to a lack of flows supporting the market. They suggested this could lead to a selloff, which they would view as an opportunity to buy the dip.
What economic indicators was the speaker going to watch for in the upcoming week?
-The speaker planned to watch for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and non-farm payrolls as economic indicators in the upcoming week.
What was the speaker's strategy for INTC and FSLR?
-The speaker was looking to take positions in INTC and FSLR. For INTC, they were waiting for the stock to either get above 2459 or pull back to 2194. For FSLR, they were considering taking calls for October 18th or even stretching to the 300 call, depending on how the stock reacted to the PCE data.
What did the speaker mean by 'fair value gap' in the context of SMCI?
-The speaker referred to a 'fair value gap' in SMCI as a significant price imbalance that occurred due to a probe announcement before a stock split. They believed that if the stock could confirm above a certain level, it could pop back up to 471, representing a substantial potential gain.
Outlines
📈 Stock Market Gains and Trading Strategies
The speaker discusses their positive trading day, highlighting significant gains from positions on TSM and AMD stocks. They express regret at not maximizing profits from TSM, which could have yielded over six figures. They also mention trimming most of their AMD position but are optimistic about potential future gains. The speaker outlines their trading strategy, which involves buying calls at lower prices and selling when stocks break through resistance levels. They also discuss their focus on other stocks like INTC, FSLR, and QQQ, and their anticipation of adding Tesla to their watchlist.
💹 AMD and MU's Market Performance
The speaker analyzes AMD's stock performance, noting its potential for a pullback after a significant rise. They discuss their strategy of waiting for a pullback to a specific price point before considering new trades. The conversation also covers MU's earnings and the stock's reaction, highlighting the importance of maintaining a strong price level post-earnings. The speaker shares their approach to trading options, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic planning.
📊 SHOP and CROWD's Trading Outlook
The speaker provides an update on SHOP, discussing the possibility of a pullback to a key support level and their strategy for adding positions if the price holds. They also mention CROWD, focusing on the importance of not trading impulsively and allowing the market to 'marinate' to get a clearer picture. The speaker emphasizes the potential for significant price movements in SHOP and CROWD, suggesting a strategic approach to entering and exiting trades.
🚀 TSM's Trading Experience and Learnings
The speaker reflects on their trading experience with TSM, detailing the challenges and lessons learned. They discuss the importance of being lenient with trades, especially when dealing with technical indicators like EMAs. The conversation also touches on the potential for TSM to continue its upward trajectory, with the speaker outlining their expectations and the criteria they use to evaluate trade success.
🌐 Market Analysis and Upcoming Predictions
The speaker offers a broader market analysis, discussing various stocks and their potential movements. They mention First Solar and INTC, providing specific price points and strategies for trading these stocks. The speaker also shares their thoughts on market trends, upcoming economic reports, and their impact on trading. They emphasize the importance of patience and strategic planning in capitalizing on market opportunities.
📉 Reflecting on Market Volatility and Strategy
The speaker summarizes their trading week, reflecting on the market's volatility and the importance of having a solid trading strategy. They discuss the potential for market weakness in the upcoming week and the opportunities this may present for buying dips. The conversation also covers the speaker's personal trading experiences, including a significant gain from a single trade. They conclude by emphasizing the value of patience and conviction in trading.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡TSM
💡Calls
💡Support and Resistance
💡AMD
💡Pullback
💡MU
💡Gap Up
💡QQQ
💡Trade Plan
💡EMA
💡PCE
Highlights
The speaker expresses optimism about their trading performance and feels great about recent outcomes.
Mentions a missed opportunity to make over six figures from TSM 180 calls for October 18th.
Discusses TSM's support breaking at 168-165 but not reaching the desired area to add contracts.
AMD positions went over 200% and the speaker trimmed almost all of them, leaving only one contract.
MU lotos trade resulted in a remarkable gap up, moving from entry to a high of 32%.
The speaker did not get a full position on MU lotos but still considers it a win.
QQQ was swung with a successful trade, closing at a high of 493.
The speaker had one of their best trading days with multiple positions going extreme percents.
CROWD is the only trade that's currently drawn down, but a quick overview is provided.
The speaker reaffirms the importance of having a trade plan and seeing it play out despite doubts.
Net gain for the day was about $25,000, but the speaker believes they could have made more.
The speaker outlines their primary focuses for future trades: QQQ, MU, SHOP, CROWD, AMD, INTC, and FSLR.
AMD is discussed as a lagging semi-name with potential for a pullback to 162.
MU is compared to SHOP in terms of trading patterns and potential for future gains.
SHOP is viewed as not yet actionable for new entries or additions, with a preference for a pullback to 7705.
The speaker talks about the potential of a window of weakness until October 7th in the market.
FSLR is considered for a potential trade based on a volume range profile and upcoming PCE event.
INTC is watched for a move above 2459 or a pullback to 2194, with an If-This-Then-That trading strategy.
SMCI is discussed as a weird trade taken due to an upcoming split and probe.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and conviction in trading.
QQQ is briefly discussed with a simple trade plan of basing at 488 and marking up to 497.
Transcripts
as always my people what's going on hope
everyone had a great day uh if you
cannot tell just by my voice I feel
great um everything played out as it
should have um a little upset right I
mean I don't know if you guys saw right
the TSM 180 calls that I had for October
uh what was it October
18th um theoretically had I added down
here right these contracts I think the
contracts one as low as like 1.2 but
they never broke really the area that I
was looking to add against it did break
that support I won't deny that which was
that 168 165 but had I added down here
into contracts that were like one uh my
average probably could have gotten down
to like 220 200 bucks uh and they ended
up moving to 800 I think today so insane
gain uh I could have made honestly over
six figures on this trade uh but it is
what it is right I mean you guys saw
that this played out today TSM I had two
positions that both went over 200% on
this uh AMD as well right remember our
ads were down here off of this uh 155
Zone we ended up breaking or kind of
stalling out at 162 but we gapped above
I still think this continues up into
175 and I'm just looking for as right I
kind of already have this drawn out
nicely um maybe some kind of pullback
here High tight flag or maybe a retest
of0 62 uh and I'll be looking to add
this again and kind of roll but uh this
ended up going I think like 70 to 90% uh
I trimmed almost all of that I only have
a contract left so I mean we'll see if I
can get the pullback ad uh what else did
I have man I feel like I had so many
things mu lotos that I ended up taking
uh remember I specified that I was just
going to take a lotos down here I wanted
to get full position down here did it
happen no I didn't get a full position
but still right a remarkable Gap
up from entry uh we moved all the way
for a high of like 30 bucks today 32%
and um yeah mean just a great great
overall win on that uh shop today um you
know still doing extremely well this
looks strong kind of holding here at the
highs of this Gap at 77 if it can pull
back obviously I would like to get some
more size on those as well but this
overall is like 50% or so uh QQQ guys we
swung this as well uh remember I took
them right here um right into the close
actually we had this hourly uh kind of
flag remember like right around here uh
I don't remember I don't really trade
Flags like that but we just had a tight
compression against uh this old lower
high here this trend line uh if I just
kind of pull it across you guys will see
it's this green line right kind of just
very nicely placed right above that low
diminishing volume low spread and then
we got a big pop all the way to uh
493 right we we ended up getting a huge
move on that those contracts went 70% I
think this is one of the best days I've
ever had in terms of multiple positions
going extreme percents like I said 200%
200% I had a three or I think mu was
like 400% shop 50% QQQ 70% um only draw
down really right now is crowd uh but I
just wanted to kind of go over this
really quickly um and there's no better
feeling than like having a a trade plan
having people doubt you um seeing
sentiment kind of go against what you
think is going to happen and then it
does exactly what you think right it
just it gives you like a nice ego boost
and and kind of reaffirms that you know
what you're doing um and like I said
guys I mean I post everything I do um I
was able to net about 25,000 today uh is
it what I wanted to get no right I mean
like I said I should have made over six
figures on this at the very least I
could have pulled like 60 to 990,000 if
I didn't trim on TSM uh but after for
that initial loss I I definitely had to
do something in terms of taking profits
and mitigating as much as I could right
but overall fantastic move uh and now
it's this is the hard part right time to
move on um these charts are done TSM
like I said last night uh is off the
list and this is kind of what I have now
with QQQ mu shop crowd AMD being primary
focuses and then secondary focuses are
INTC and
fslr um so let's just jump into some
fresh charts um I have a you know
obviously these are going to change as
well I still kind of want to add Tesla
on here uh for a potential pullback
candidate uh onto this this kind of back
here right so if we can get something
like this uh I think this is a decent
candidate remember we have that event
coming up here on the 10th of October
maybe the e8th I don't remember the
exact date so it's getting a little
risky uh but I want to start with some
of these names here right
INTC fslr AMD crowd shop uh and then mu
I just want to talk about them briefly
kind of I'm looking at uh cuz I do think
that these aren't done right I think uh
mu specifically shop specifically crowd
and AMD have plenty of room to go Intel
ton of room but I do want to take that
as a share focus and fslr is going to be
uh we'll just see this could be just
something that plays out tomorrow with
pce uh but it could be a multi-day mover
over the next week or two so let's jump
into these really quickly so let's just
start with AMD because this is one of
the lagging semi names uh and this still
looks really good uh and it pretty much
broke through everything that I wanted I
just want to see a pull back and hold
now essentially of this lower high that
kind of sent this down for the higher
low you can't ignore this spot it's 162
right and we are pushing to the top of
this uh not resistance but technically
it's our our Gap right and there's
always going to be sellers that are
trying to pin price underneath that so
like I said and you guys have seen this
multiple times whether we get a high
tight flag that ends up forming kind of
like this right against the EMAs once
those end up catching up or we could get
a pullback that's a little bit deeper
right and we end up getting that move
that I had drawn out where we end up
hitting here pull back to hold 162 and
then break into the Gap base and then go
I still think this needs to stay on
Watch and I'm going to do exactly what I
did before uh and hopefully you guys
have kind of caught this system I like
to take longer dated calls to add into
positions on Trend and then when it
breaks through right key resistance
levels and bases I'll take profits and
then I like to use those profits and
roll to Shorter dated contracts to
Target the more aggressive kind of move
right especially once we chiseled
through resistance uh I think that once
those are absorbed you're able to kind
of then size up or not I shouldn't say
size up but take more aggressive
approaches right um so this is going to
be a big one uh either for a 162
pullback or a high tight flag like I
said against the EMAs and we can take a
look at those EMAs on the 921 we are
kind of lagging right so this is given
signs that this could be kind of like a
hangman or spinning top uh against 16980
which is that Gap and then we get that
pull back and everybody should welcome
that right there should be nothing wrong
with that um there's nothing more than I
hate and I don't hate it for like my
reasons but for you guys that will see
stuff intraday like 5 15 hourly and you
guys will see a big meltdown right on
the smaller time frame and you're like
oh man that thing looks terrible oh this
thing's dying and then you take your
eyes off of it or you'll short it when
the opportunity really or uh is baked
into the the downside being an opportune
time to buy calls right um so that's
what I'm really waiting for is a
pullback into 162 uh or a high tight
flag just letting the EMAs catch up to
this because this is a pretty extensive
move that we've seen against semis or
not against but with semis across the
board and I don't think this really
Fizzles out till we get to like 177 176
right uh so this is going to be a big
watch for me I just wanted to see how it
reacted today just to see if we got the
Gap up or what ended up happening but
this is behaving pretty
well okay with mu this was a huge win
off of earnings uh but very similar to
shop right we've talked about shop and
how this looks eerily similar maybe not
in the same sense of where support
resistance is but it do have a peg right
where we ended up gapping above uh a lot
of your resistance which was pretty much
back here right we gapped above that we
shot basically printed an inverted
hammer and then we continued through
that spot to fill this Gap I don't think
mu is exactly the same but I think it's
the same in the sense that we are now
gapping above a lower high a previous
gap which also acted as support and then
we were able to defend that today after
earnings right that's always a good sign
is once earnings happen do people take
profit in masses and are they able to
protect that Peg that power earnings Gap
or do they let it kind of Sizzle back
down into that and then collapse and
fill the Gap right uh this is obviously
a huge huge gap andan if we take it from
here to here right this I mean this was
disgusting this was a 17 almost 20% move
I doubt they're going to give that back
uh and it held very nicely right right
over the level right over 10878 we can
just round out to like 108 um so I'm
like I said I'm waiting for contracts to
kind of cool down this was a good sign
today that it kind of wicked below but
closed back above and a lot of that
volume actually came from buyers trying
to push this back Above So once again
just a couple days of like I don't know
I would just say some rest against 10878
and then I'm going to be looking to roll
obviously into those 130 calls again but
I'm going to take a little bit uh less
time on those contracts obviously if
contracts cool really nicely
um and IV comes down rather quickly uh
I'll probably still take like December
if we'll have to look at the contracts
but just kind of know that I'm looking
at the 130 call towards the end of the
year right this is still going to be a
swing trade just because of the off
chance that this does kind of sell down
kind of like crowd guys you got to think
about crowd I'll go over that here in a
second but right there was a perfect
level that had a lower high where we had
a break of structure and sometimes
things aren't perfect they seep a little
bit lower and they come to the EMAs or
maybe on a weekly candle that just ends
up being a you got to think about these
things and be a little bit lenient
that's why it's so important not to go
super heavy right away and kind of let
things marinate on The Daily weekly uh
rather than being so uh impulsive right
so just want to see this marinate here
above 10878 see what it does I'll kind
of determine the contracts from there
but just know I'm looking for a move up
into this 127 to 130 spot this should
happen rather quickly uh if Shorts kind
of were kind of caught under underwater
here it's going to happen very very
quickly where we see uh secondary phase
melt up into this 127 spot so really
important here you guys can even just
see from like a weekly perspective right
lower high this was our previous floor
really strong weekly bar now if we can
just get the close over the top I think
this just continues very very simply uh
or very very uh easily right so that's
going to be a big watch for me as well
mu above 10878 rolls into
130 okay just an update on shop um I
don't really think this is act able yet
for people that are looking to get in or
add I still have those contracts guys
and I've pretty much just been waiting
to to add on a pullback uh remember this
pullback is a really simple level it's
this Gap fill here back at
7705 ties in really nicely to the area
that it had prior uh previously rejected
I'm sorry uh and obviously this is what
pulled back it gave us that higher low
and then it started its markup again uh
remember entry for us was back here up
about 50% on these contracts that I
currently have uh but I would like to
see us get this pull back to
7705 the only issue here is this week
has been really strong this has been a
very very strong chart uh you guys can
see right the weekly open was like right
around uh what was it the open is 79
Flats right and our low of the week uh
is 7877 so barely any movement to the
downside uh you guys can see how
marginal that Wick is uh and it's just
stayed incredibly strong this week
against these highs here so there
doesn't it doesn't look like there needs
to even be a pullback if anything it
looks like it's already going to push
through this weekly High which is around
8113 uh and today's candle um maybe is
going to be what does it they had an
opportunity in my opinion for sellers to
give us that pullback here on Wednesday
but the fact that we pretty much just
negated that instantly today uh we broke
underneath that low from Wednesday and
then soaked all the way back up to the
highs here uh we're starting to see a
little bit of an uptick in volume I
think pce might be what pushes it over
the edge to give us a move up into the
835 resistance and that's that Gap that
I'm targeting so I want to give you guys
kind of like the actionable setup
obviously uh if it does sell tomorrow 80
or
7705 uh is kind of the Prime area to add
in my opinion on that pullback and if it
can hold that's fantastic if not I think
there's a similar setup here to AMD in a
lot of other charts right just obviously
in my opinion you're going to be sellers
here at 835 now if it can give us that
rejection in a high tight flat FL let
the EMAs catch up I think that's an
opportunity to size in again or take a
roll on these and if people haven't
gotten an entry I think that's going to
be a good opportunity because that's
what I'm going to be doing personally
looking for another high flag off of
that 835 rejection catching this off the
EMAs and obviously you have to have the
criteria met I would like to see
decreasing spread diverging volume in
this pulling back and not really giving
up too much distance uh on that pullback
right I just want to see it very very
controlled uh and obviously not too far
away from that high things will look in
shape up pretty good in my opinion and I
I would likely take some more ads on
that and this is still the same right
I'm targeting 88 to this Gap fill here
around like 90
91 uh and yeah I think this chart will
come to fruition here rather quickly as
well uh I don't even think it's going to
take until the earning cycle I think if
anything that earning cycle might be
what sells it off now uh the market is
pretty hot so uh yeah just wanted to
jump into this one um will talk about
kind of going into QQQ and some of these
other names we do have a window of
weakness till October 7th just keep that
in mind where we don't really have any
flows that can kind of propel the market
up we've already seen that pass by and I
think this is just a squeeze that we're
seeing uh some kind of squeeze effect
from that uh but in that first week of
October we do have potential to kind of
uh pull back I would say or see some
kind of selloff um and obviously I still
view these as an opportunity to get long
on some of these dips but uh that might
happen here right I'm not trying to like
look into the future and predict the
timing of this but you know I still
think that there is going to be a little
bit of a pullback that occurs uh the
first week of October here so uh this is
going to be shop uh not the best one but
I just wanted to cover
it okay this is the one that I think
everybody's like just watching right now
which is good this is a great setup uh
but I did talk about right like and I
just said it with uh a few other charts
that things aren't always perfect right
we did have this Gap here which was our
lower high and in a picture perfect
world this pulls back we bounce right
off of this Tuesday low and we rip right
it doesn't always work like that we saw
decrease in spread here then with today
we obviously saw this kind of engulf
that Wednesday candle uh but I did say I
want to be lenient with this I took four
contracts for a reason uh not only
because I wanted to give it the ability
to bounce off the EMAs and let these
kind of catch up but also I want to give
it time to see if we can get like a
weekly close over this and see some kind
of strong Wick or indication of buyers
being able to pull it above
285 uh and then obviously as well I
think the elephant in the room is his
contracts that I'm in are a little bit
spread right the bid I think was like at
2. like one at one point which I was
able to get uh but then the ask was at
like 2.3 2.4 so it's almost a 30p point
spread which is huge if you get the
incorrect fill you just end up going at
the ask or you end up getting a market
fill when you're buying to get in uh and
somebody gets a bid fill you're already
down like 15 20% so
long story short here I'm down like 30%
28% and I know that's not the real story
of this if I get a bid fill with just
one contract that'll suck my my cost
basis down quite a bit I'll probably be
down like 19% if I get two fills right
I'm down 8% so I'm not really too
worried about this one and I'm like I
said I'm going to be lenient with this
one uh against these EMAs here I usually
don't trade EMAs uh the elephant in the
room as well is that there's a gap here
um from this open down to this close
here so there is potential maybe this
pulls down into the 21 uh either way
right I'm just going to be leaning with
this one I do think this is going to be
a winner uh but I do think that you know
maybe if we bounce off the EMAs it's
going to require one more higher low off
of that 285 spot uh but really this
starts to confirm and we'll know we're
right based off these daily weekly
closes I think this is a pretty big one
pce tomorrow might give us that push
back above 285 to 290 uh and if it you
know obviously gives us that and we are
able to pull back and hold the top of it
around 290 285 just in this General
range kind of like this right here I
think I might add one more time now that
we've already kind of tested the EMAs I
think we should be good to go if we can
just put in a higher low off 285 290 and
uh Target right away right just to kind
of give us that good feeling that we're
in the right trade is a clear harmonic
break through 29985 we could just round
that to 300 uh once it does that
actually I think I let's just take the
wick right so basically yeah we'll just
say 300 uh I would like to see us break
through that harmonically maybe give us
pull back onto that and then just
continue its trajectory up to
31675 uh 31675 I would probably take a
little bit of a trim on that maybe half
3/4s uh and then from there obviously
targeting 336 to 342 um that's The Sweet
Spot I think that's what's really going
to pay us and just think about this
right I mean this is such a easy trade
in my opinion for the potential to have
almost a 64o move right um nasty nasty
move these contracts will do very very
well um with just uh the amount of Delta
and Gamma that you're going to yield on
these and the risk is relatively low uh
it is a little bit subjective and that's
why I said I want to be lenient I don't
have like a clear stop uh in terms of a
level it's more so just EMA based and
ideally we claim back above 285 but yeah
this is going to be a really good trade
uh I will let you guys know if I add
into this again uh I'm trying not to add
on strength though right like if this
starts to look good and starts to run uh
it's going to be hard to get a bid fill
but also you don't want to just click
buy the ask because you're going to get
those those fills that have that are 30
points higher than the current bid right
so um ideally this ends up kind of
popping and it starts to pull back into
285 290 like I said I'll be able to kind
of see using the options chart what the
uh what the the prior price was in that
General range and I'll kind of just bid
down I might bid like three to four
contracts this time to try to get to 10
to 15 uh but yeah that's kind of the
game plan here just slowly bidding in
against 285 290 and then once it starts
to break out and once we clear 300 I'm
not going to add into this again I don't
really want to add into the 300 pullback
at that point I'd rather just let my
trade do its thing uh and ideally we
kind of look like something like this
right we have a move here and we end up
kind of capturing this full play up to
like a 4.0 right that's a 4.0 risk uh
and that's kind of what we trade for
right anything over two and a half hour
is good in my book so this is what I'm
going to be looking at uh for the next
couple days just to see if we can
confirm above that spot
as for a new entry guys uh I want to go
back to First Solar um if you guys
remember we actually traded it back here
uh when it was in this tight
consolidation uh and really we ended up
having uh kind of like a flag pull back
into this progression Gap here I'm 99%
sure we caught the pop up into this
24096 spot and then I tried to roll as
it made its way back down and then it
just ended up failing uh and I took the
loss on that so win loss and then add
this crazy big move back up to that same
240 level it ended up kind of doing the
same thing where it pulled back and then
it's progressively made its way back up
to reclaim this resistance at
24096 and then Wednesday we had a nice
pop right and that led into today and
this was the area that I was targeting
it was
25357 this is a nice little resistance
here uh and we have pce tomorrow guys um
and I really think that this can trade
and I don't use this all the time I just
do it when I see imbalances like this
with prior trading action uh in like
large clusters cuz this can be a very
easy opportunity for this to kind of
move through this spot quickly right
because there's only three bars that
sold this off but there is a potential
magnet with the trading volume that took
place here so that's when I like to use
a volume range profile and there indeed
is a nice little pocket I think we can
fly through up into this 275 to 280
range uh and really kind of peak out
here uh and then from there I think you
can go to an all-time high but uh really
just depends on what pce does does
tomorrow um if it just obviously gaps up
and hits 280 I'm not going to have much
interest in this but if we can have you
know some kind of uh maybe like an open
like right around 264 and then we pull
back and hold 253 I think there's a good
opportunity to enter there right I am
going to have this on watch I'll
probably be looking at like 280 290
calls for October 18th maybe even
stretch it up to the 300 call uh if we
can just Trend and you know obviously
have some kind of uh I would say
uh what am I trying to
say I can't think of the right word guys
you guys know what I'm trying to say
right kind of like just a simple Trend
right we can Trend above 253 let's say
we end up moving all the way up to this
280 and it looks decent we can like kind
of pull back here I wouldn't mind taking
calls again right and kind of just
adding in on Trends and being able to to
trade along with that uh and Target 300
right I think this has an opportunity to
go for that high there uh but yeah just
want to see how this opens up tomorrow
uh I am going to be keeping my eyes on
this very very heavily uh and then I was
looking at INTC this didn't happen today
just kind of keep your eyes on this one
I'm still looking at this for this to
get above
2459 uh or pull back to 2194 it's an If
This Then That Type situation uh but
this is about to trigger I have my alert
set as you guys can see down here so
just kind of a waiting game with Intel
those are the two main positions that
I'm looking to take tomorrow um that's
that's really it guys I don't really
think there's anything else if you guys
were you know obviously looking at the
chat I took smci today this just felt
incredibly weird this just felt so weird
uh they have their split coming up on
Tuesday uh you have this probe that
comes out right before and it drops all
the way to the swing low and then it
sweeps the swing low and then you have a
nice amount of buyers kind of stepping
in off of that low right I mean you had
immediate absorption off of that low you
swept the low with just amount I
wouldn't say the same amount of volume
but a good amount of volume that closed
above tight spread candle rip pullback
and now look what we're holding we're
kind of holding I would say that that
previous kind of uh I don't want to say
this is an absorption candle this is a
weird this is a weird trade so that's
why I just kind of felt like I wanted to
take a position on this one admittedly I
sized in pretty heavy way heavier than I
should have uh and I was at the gym when
I did this guys I once we ended up
getting this candle here we started to
trade and consolidate against these lows
I added pretty heavy uh you guys saw I
was able to get about $1,400 on this and
I I basically took profits came down to
three contracts and we'll see where this
ends up kind of holding and opening
tomorrow um but yeah I'm just going to
basically hold this until Tuesday I want
to hold this to the split and see if
this does anything crazy you also have
to think about this is an this is a true
fair value Gap right and I don't really
talk about fair value gaps all that much
anymore but this is a true imbalance
candle that happened right so if we can
really confirm
above this right here and there's a
reason it rejected right and we'll we'll
use our our red lines here so everything
kind of looks
clean right here right this is all a
fair value Gap I think that this can pop
back to 471 if I'm being real uh got to
do something like this where we flag
here POP hold and then start to just
Trend all the way up uh but yeah I think
we can definitely have a nice move here
going into that split and even post
split which is why I grabbed the October
18th um wor case scenario right we end
up selling under 382 I would likely
close out of this one and I there was a
someone in the chat today ston Le he's
been here forever uh I had kind of the
same level here right that this sells
Back Down Under 382 I think this can go
to
357 which is this previous previous uh
high before the major breakout that
really sent smci onto the map uh and
dude there what better place to take
calls man I I really do think that this
could be a good opportunity even with
some light size and just kind of having
that headline might have scared a lot of
people off a lot of people um usually
get fearful around that kind of stuff
and dude those are some of your best
trades even if it's light siiz so I felt
like there was a good opportunity to get
in this one we'll see what we end up
doing but if we can get that pop man I
mean this is a nasty nasty recovery my
average is right around the bottom of
this white line uh if we can get that
move man up to that fair value Gap
that's 83 bucks it's 21% on the
underline that'll be disgusting um so
that's why I took that
uh if you guys were curious um and yeah
I mean if you guys didn't want to
stomach that you guys didn't want to
take it it's not that big of a deal
nobody's forcing you guys to do anything
so uh just saw an opportunity seized it
while I did or while I could uh we'll
see what ends up happening with that but
uh yeah next week as well um let's just
kind of talk about this I did say right
that first week of each month there's
really not any flows it's usually two
weeks after the Opex so this will go
into October 7th where we have no flows
to be able to support the market doesn't
mean things can't like consolidate but
there is an opportunity for the market
to not be able to battle against any
downside pressures right so uh what
better week than our famous famous uh
Fed chair pal right on Monday I just saw
that but uh I was going to talk mainly
about jolts as well as non-farm payrolls
right we have non-farm payrolls and
jolts next week typically during these
weeks we'll see an enog form right so
maybe like a gap up on Monday I don't
want to get too far into that but we
typically see an nwg and a distribution
back into the nwg or we see an
accumulation into that or uh again I'm
going to try to word this right way we
see a gap up and a distribution back
into the Gap that that's below it or
right we'll end up seeing a gap down an
accumulation and a mark back up to the
Gap above right sorry that was like a
mouthful I had to think about that one
but uh yeah I think that we could see
the that window of weakness really take
effect uh on the first week of October
uh and then obviously after that I would
be looking to buy the dip after that o
this this October 6th week right so
hopefully we see a selloff next week
that would be nice to be able to kind of
reset some of these charts and and get
in on some of these pullbacks that I've
been waiting for uh and I would just
trade a little bit carefully next week I
would pay attention to the nwag i' would
be paying attention to uh you guys have
trady ticks I would definitely be using
that to be looking at the dark poool uh
orders that come through at the end each
day or at the beginning of each day as
well they do pop up I'll be looking at
those pre-market prints uh but yeah
that's all I wanted to kind of go over
today um hopefully this isn't too
lengthy I'll try to edit it all together
but um yeah that's pretty much it guys
QQQ oh I didn't touch on QQQ feel like
this is a simple one right I mean we
obviously broke above into this Gap here
at
488 uh pretty simple I would just like
to see it kind of Base here and then
obviously mark up to
497 um I did start a couple contracts
into the close here this looked all
right right we ended up filling the
overnight Gap up uh right around here
with these hourly candles tight spread
pop and then we're able to get another
tight spread uh on the final two hours
of trading above 48 and that is why I
took that so maybe a nice pop here this
is uh maybe from pce that ends up
getting us a move to that 497 and then
that trade will be done right and then
I'll be able to kind of sit back and
then really just watch the market next
week and see if there's any uh some dips
that look good uh but that's pretty PR
much it guys that's all I wanted to go
over thank you once again hopefully you
guys did well uh I know it was a lot of
waiting around in August um andan it
might have felt like it was a waste of
time but I mean you guys saw some of
these moves man uh I made basically
everything that I lost on TSM and then
some right but had I not stopped out of
that guys and had I just kind of stuck
to my convictions on that I would have
made a whole year of trading and and
literally just by waiting in two trades
over the period of one month I think it
was 20 days that it took for the for TSM
to work out and some of the other trades
so uh there's a lot of power in being
patient and a lot of power and having
conviction and just sticking to a few
charts and hopefully that proved it um a
lot of the people that cancelled that
didn't like what I was doing and wanted
to get the dopamine Rush of trading
extremely volatile stuff and and look at
new stuff each day uh they're all back
so it's kind of funny how it works uh it
is what it is guys but uh I'm always
going to do what I feel is right for
myself and my account if you guys want
to follow it's up to you like I said
this is never Financial advice I just
kind of log my trades and just talk man
I like I like kind of going over the
stuff and showing you guys the art of
trading so that's going to be it guys
love you guys I'll see you guys uh
tomorrow bright early
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