Russians SPREAD PANIC In The Southern Front - Ukraine War Map Update 21/Aug/2024

Summary

In this video, Georgia discusses Ukraine's military advances in the K region, including their efforts to disrupt Russian pontoon bridges. She addresses Russian panic and the potential for Ukraine to launch attacks in the south. The video analyzes the force ratios, equipment deliveries, and mobilization efforts in Ukraine. Georgia speculates on possible Ukrainian strategies, including a diversionary tactic similar to the Kerch operation. She also highlights the challenges Russia faces in capturing cities like Pavlograd and the significance of the Nord Stream pipeline attack, emphasizing that such pipelines should not have existed.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine continues to make advances in the K region, targeting pontoon bridges to restrict Russian movements.
• 🔍 There are conflicting reports about Ukrainian military movements in the south, with some suggesting a potential buildup of forces.
• 🔄 The force ratio in the Kers operational area is approximately 1:2 in favor of Russia, with Ukrainian forces estimated between 5,000 to 10,000 and Russian forces between 10,000 to 20,000.
• 🤔 The Russian forces are poorly organized and consist of a mix of different units with varying morale levels.
• 🚀 Despite being outnumbered, Ukraine is advancing due to smarter and faster tactical maneuvers.
• 🔄 The equipment and troops situation is unclear, with questions about where the newly mobilized and trained forces are located.
• 🌍 The geopolitical implications of the war are significant, with the potential to affect areas like Crimea and the Nord Stream pipelines.
• 🏙️ The capture of Pakros and Mirat would be a significant challenge for Russia, as these cities are larger and more complex than previous targets like Bahmut.
• ⏳ Time is a crucial factor, with the expectation that any significant advances or changes in the war will take considerable time.
• 💥 The destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines is mentioned, with the suggestion that they should not have been there in the first place due to their connection to Putin's regime.

Q & A

What is the current situation of Ukraine's advances in the K region?

Ukraine is continuing their successful advances in the K region, with reports indicating they are hunting for pontoon bridges that Russians are trying to erect over a river to prevent encirclement.

Are there any reports of panic among Russian forces?

Yes, there have been reports of panic among Russian forces, particularly from Romanov, although these reports have been dismissed as fake.

What is the estimated ratio of forces between Ukraine and Russia in the K region?

The ratio of forces in the K region is approximately 1 to 2 in favor of Russia, with Ukraine estimated to have between 5,000 and 10,000 troops and Russia between 10,000 and 20,000.

What is the issue with the Russian forces in the K region?

The Russian forces in the K region are poorly organized, a mix of different units with poor morale, and include conscripts, making them an inefficient fighting force.

What is the significance of the US security assistance Bill for Ukraine?

The US security assistance Bill restarted a lot of weapon deliveries to Ukraine, significantly increasing the amount of pledged and supposedly delivered equipment.

What was the outcome of Ukraine's mobilization Bill passed in May?

The mobilization Bill was a success, leading to an increase in conscripts with about 2-3 months of training, and now these conscripts are expected to be trained and ready for deployment.

Where are the new brigades and equipment that Zalinski stated were coming into Ukraine?

It is unclear where the new brigades and equipment are, as they have not been seen in large numbers in the K region, suggesting they may be held in reserve or deployed elsewhere.

What is the potential strategy behind Ukraine's military movements?

Ukraine may be preparing for another strategic move, possibly a diversion similar to the Kerch operation, where they applied pressure in one area to strike in another.

What is the current status of the Russian advance in the Zaparozhye region?

There are reports of an accumulation of Ukrainian forces in the south, but it is not clear if Ukraine is planning a full-blown attack on the Zaparozhye region.

What challenges does the city of Pavlograd pose for a potential Russian capture?

Pavlograd, along with Mirat, forms a union of cities that is larger and more challenging to capture than Bahmut, which was the biggest city Russia captured so far. The area is more dispersed and would require a significant force to encircle and capture.

What is the author's stance on the Nord Stream incident?

The author suggests that the Nord Stream pipelines should not have been built in the first place, as they facilitated Putin's regime and undermined democracy in Europe.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Analyzing Ukraine's Military Advancements

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses Ukraine's ongoing military successes in the K region, where they are reportedly dismantling Russian attempts to build pontoon bridges over a river. Despite rumors of a full-scale attack in the Zaparozhye region, the speaker emphasizes that there is no concrete evidence of such an offensive. Instead, they highlight the importance of understanding the broader situation on the front lines and the orientation of forces. The speaker also points out the disparity in troop numbers between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the K area, noting that while the Russians have more troops, they are poorly organized and lack morale. The discussion also touches on the potential impact of the US security assistance bill and the mobilization of Ukrainian forces, questioning where the additional equipment and troops might be deployed.

05:02

🌐 Speculating on Ukraine's Strategic Deployment

The second paragraph delves into the potential strategic movements of Ukrainian forces. The speaker questions the location of the newly mobilized troops and equipment, suggesting that they are not currently engaged in the K region. They hypothesize that these forces may be part of a larger strategic plan, possibly a diversionary tactic similar to the one used in the Kerch operation. The speaker also discusses the reduced intensity of Russian advances in certain areas, suggesting that this could be due to a reallocation of forces to other regions. There is a particular focus on the potential for Ukraine to launch an attack in the Zaparozhye region, despite the challenges of such an endeavor.

10:03

🏗️ Assessing the Difficulty of Capturing Pavlograd

In this section, the speaker analyzes the challenges that Russian forces would face in capturing the city of Pavlograd, which is composed of two cities, Pavlograd and Mirat. They compare the size and defensive capabilities of Pavlograd to the city of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russia after a long and bloody battle. The speaker emphasizes that capturing Pavlograd would be an even more significant challenge due to its size and the strength of its defensive lines. They also discuss the potential strategies that Russia might employ, such as encircling the city, and the likelihood of a prolonged and difficult battle.

15:04

💥 Debunking Claims and Supporting Ukraine

The final paragraph addresses the controversy surrounding the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, with the speaker suggesting that even if Ukrainians were involved, the pipelines should never have been built due to their connection to Putin's regime. The speaker also acknowledges a Polish volunteer's efforts in supporting Ukraine and encourages viewers to contribute to a fundraising campaign for the Ukrainian military. The paragraph concludes with a message of unity and support for Ukraine.

Keywords

💡K region

The 'K region' refers to a specific operational area where Ukrainian forces are advancing and where Russian forces are trying to establish defensive measures like pontoon bridges. It's a focal point of military activity as described in the video, indicating a strategic location within the broader conflict.

💡pontoon bridges

Pontoon bridges are temporary bridges used to span water obstacles quickly. In the context of the video, they symbolize an attempt by Russian forces to secure a retreat or supply route over a river, which is a critical element in the military logistics and strategy in the K region.

💡Romanov

Romanov is mentioned as a source of reports that are later dismissed as fake news. It illustrates the theme of misinformation and the challenges in verifying information in a conflict zone, which is a sub-theme in the broader narrative of the video discussing military movements and public perception.

💡Zapora region

The 'Zapora region' is a geographical area in southern Ukraine where there are reports of Ukrainian force accumulation. It's highlighted in the video as a potential new front of military operations, indicating a shift in the focus of the conflict.

💡Force ratio

The term 'force ratio' is used to describe the comparative strength of Ukrainian and Russian forces in the K region. A ratio of 1 to two suggests a numerical advantage for the Russian forces, which is a key factor in understanding the dynamics of military engagements in the area.

💡Mobilization Bill

The 'Mobilization Bill' refers to legislation that allows for the conscription of more troops. In the video, it's mentioned in the context of Ukraine's efforts to bolster its military strength, which is a significant aspect of the country's response to the ongoing conflict.

💡Conscripts

Conscripts are individuals who are compelled to serve in the military. The video discusses the influx of conscripts in Ukraine, indicating a surge in military manpower that could potentially shift the balance of forces in the conflict.

💡Attrition warfare

Attrition warfare is a military strategy that aims to wear down the enemy until they are unable to continue fighting. The video contrasts this with the more agile tactics employed by Ukrainian forces, highlighting a strategic difference between the two sides.

💡Security Assistance Bill

The 'Security Assistance Bill' is legislation that provides for the delivery of military aid. In the video, it's mentioned in relation to the US and its allies' support for Ukraine, emphasizing the international dimension of the conflict and the role of external support in shaping military capabilities.

💡Pavlograd

Pavlograd, also mentioned as Pakros in the script, is a city that becomes significant in the discussion of potential military objectives. The video suggests that capturing Pavlograd would be a major challenge for Russian forces due to its size and the defensive preparations made by Ukrainian forces.

💡Nord Stream

Nord Stream refers to a series of pipelines that transport natural gas from Russia to Europe. The video discusses an alleged attack on the Nord Stream as a topic of controversy, tying it into the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict beyond direct military engagements.

Highlights

Ukraine continues successful advances in the K region.

Ukraine is reportedly hunting for pontoon bridges over a river to lock in Russian forces.

Reports of panic among Russians, with dismissals from Romanov.

Contrary reports suggest Ukraine is not attacking the Zaparozhye region in the south.

Other channels report accumulation of Ukrainian forces in the South.

Understanding the situation on the front line is crucial for context.

Approximate force ratio in the Kers operational area is 1 to 2 in favor of Russians.

Russian forces are poorly organized and have low morale.

Ukrainian forces are fighting smarter, despite being outnumbered.

Question arises about the location of the rest of the equipment and troops.

US security assistance Bill and its effect on weapon deliveries to Ukraine.

Ukraine's successful mobilization bill leading to more conscripts.

Forces operating in the Kerch region are mostly withdrawn from the Donbas area.

Zalinski's statement about new brigades and equipment coming into Ukraine.

Speculation about potential Ukrainian strategies and Russian reactions.

Russian forces' challenges in capturing cities like Bakhmut and the potential for Pakros to be even more difficult.

The significance of Pakros and Mirat as a union of two cities, and the challenges they pose to Russian forces.

The Nord Stream incident and its implications for Ukraine and Europe.

A shout out to a Polish volunteer aiding Ukraine and the ongoing support campaign.

Transcripts

hey everyone Georgia here with Ukraine

matters Ukraine is continuing their

successful advances in the K region and

there's already reports that Ukraine is

hunting for the pontoon bridges that are

trying to be erected over the river that

is locking in Russians uh in between

Ukrainian forces but today we're going

to be focusing on something else today

we're going to be focusing on other

parts of the front line especially

because Russians are expressing a bit of

panic there been reports mostly from

Romanov and which was dismissed and I

must underscore that this is fake well

that this is not what's happening that

ukrainians are not going on a full-blown

attack on the zapara region which is in

the south of Ukraine but there is also

other channels reporting that there is

accumulation of forces of Ukraine that

is happening in the South so let's

explore this and let's understand why

this is potentially a big deal we need

to start with understanding what's the

situation on the front line and what's

the orientation of forces because

otherwise it's just like fighting there

fighting here what's actually happening

and for the area of K we know

approximate numbers that have been

shared both on the Russian media and

also in public uh about both the Russian

forces and Ukrainian forces that are

operating in the area roughly speaking

in the kers operational area where both

Ukraine ukrainians are attacking and

Russians are defending and trying to

prevent Ukrainian attacks we know that

right now the um the ratio of forces is

about 1 to two so that we know almost

completely for sure uh two in favor of

Russians so ukrainians are estimated in

this area to be anywhere between 5 and

10,000 Ukraine Ians and for Russians it

is estimated that it's anywhere between

10 and

20,000 so number of forces operating in

the area is already benefiting Russians

they've pulled a lot of forces to the

area the problem for Russians is that

these forces are poorly organized

they're just a mix Mash of different

units they have also units with very

poor morale they have some units that

are consistent of conscript so it's not

a very efficient fighting force and

because Ukraine in this area is not

fighting the attrition Warfare here they

have a little bit of a leeway if we they

operate smarter if they uh execute

faster moving Maneuvers that's why

despite having less forces in the area

they're still able to advance to attack

to capture territory and so on because

they're fighting smarter but seeing this

number displayed leads us to a very

concrete question where are the troops

because earlier in the year there were

two big events that started influencing

the war in Ukraine and the effect of

those events is supposed to be coming

online somewhere around now the first

one is the obvious one which is when us

has passed their uh security assistance

Bill and that's when kind of both us and

a lot of other allies restarted a lot of

weapons deliveries to Ukraine cran the

amount of both pledged equipment and

supposedly delivered equipment was very

large and I know now for a fact I got

some reports that a lot of those

deliveries while delayed they were still

coming in during the summer the question

number one there is where's the rest of

the equipment because amount of

equipment that we saw in the offensive

and K while a lot it wasn't overwhelming

there was a number of vehicles types of

vehicles and the mass of vehicles that

we just didn't see Point number two

where are the troops because Ukraine has

passed in May the mobilization Bill and

that new mobilization bill came into

Force somewhere around June and that

mobilization bill was such a big success

that ukrainians started going into the

drafting offices with renewed passion

ukrainians saw a lot more conscripts

being signed off and these conscripts

they have about 2 3 months training

period so now it's about the third month

that is going on right now since the

conscripts were signing on and therefore

the question is they are supposed to be

trained so where are the troops and

knowing these both things and knowing

that what is with the forces that are

operating right now in a kers region are

mostly forces that have been withdrawn

from the da CL area which was reported

by many different news sources that a

lot of the forces that are have been

using as the incursion Force were

literally the forces that were just uh

taking off of rotation from donbas so

now we have the chain of events zalinski

stating that there are new

brigades uh new equipment in large

quantities coming into Ukraine and

troops that's supposed to reinforce a

lot of these brigades and and make sure

that these brigades are battle

operational there is a massive force of

ukrainians that are not operational in K

and we know because Russia is advancing

in donbass then Ukrainian forces

Ukrainian forces are not sending these

troops to donbas at least right now

so where are they and that's the

question that everyone needs to ask I've

talked about couple of videos ago that

knowing cerski remember remember K

operation and how it started there was

first a lot of pressure that Ukrainian

Armed Forces executed on Russians that

got stuck in the Kon area but it was a

diversion where cersi utilized forces to

struck again uh in K Direction and they

were able to recapture all of this

area it is quite possible that cersi is

preparing something else what we must

understand that

we are not the only one thinking that

Russians are also are

wondering what is happening and if it

again I have no way to confirm this

right I don't have a satellite images of

uh Ukrainian Army Force concentration in

Zaria area and if I would have I would

probably never share that with you okay

not with you not with the community but

I mean publicly you get what I'm saying

we now are in a situation where there is

a certain big number of troops and

Equipment missing in Ukrainian armed

forces and it's not a crazy idea to

think that potentially potentially

ukrainians are looking for another

option to hit Russians with I would be

vary of uh ukrainians attacking into Kon

into zapara region while this would be

the most lucrative direction direction

number one for ukrainians to recapture

because that would literally uh separate

Crimea it would cut like there's a lot

of good things to be have here but it's

also one of the most Fortified Area and

it's hard to attack I believe that right

now if this is the case right now Russia

has sent in a lot of troops from the

supplemental directions but I think it

needs more time to boil ukrainians need

to exhaust the troops that are there and

Dan forc Russians to send and dedicate

more troops to be sent North it is

expected that ukrainians will strike

somewhere else then more time needs to

pass and more troops need to be sent

towards the north so far that is not

happening so we should know about it

have it at the back of our head but it's

not happening there what is happening

instead is that being reported that

Russians have pretty

much removed majority of reinforcements

from all but one offensive area we know

that Russians were trying to break here

towards the river right now a lot of

forces have been removed and while there

is still combat the intensity has

dropped down there was also discussion

remember at the may like by the 9th of

May Putin said said that he wants chif

Yar City

captured Russians are still exactly

there where they was and it's now stated

that while Russians still trying to

force their way through through but

again it is less forces than

before it is stated that while Russians

are having success here in New York

where they're going through these two

directions and ukrainians are forced to

move back towards the city Russians are

actually only now reaching this big city

of

torit and they still have not actually

reached it and it is now reported that

while Russians have advanced quite

extensively in New York there's still

some portions even of New York that

settlement that is still being

controlled by ukrainians so and the

tempo again has dropped because

reinforcements have been moved North so

the only area the only area that Russia

are advancing is the pakros area and

here in my last video I talked about the

hypothetical I talked about what would

be if Russia captures pakros and that

it's not really going to change the

nature of the war and there is people in

my community that are not trolls I want

to be very very clear that I'm

explaining this not for trolls there are

people in this community that are um not

fully

understanding how difficult or easy it

is to capture

poov so for them the hypothetical they

understood it as like oh so that means

that pakros is pretty much about to fall

and obviously the trolls picked up a lot

of that narrative and so on and they're

stating haaha fovi is about to fall

absolute dog so what we need to

understand firstly I will I showed this

before and I will show this again it's

the defensive lines the defensive lines

that ukrainians have built are on the

pro poov area here I explained that the

main fortification line is Rifka and

there is also significant defenses right

before the city and there is this city

as well where Russians are trying to

break through and I said that Rifka is

going to be a big pain in but for

Russians to overcome and so far it

doesn't seem that Russians are

overcoming this so this will take a

while but then we need to look at poov a

little bit closer because this is very

very crucial to understand the fact that

Russians with some of their

forward-facing

appendices can reach the outskirts of a

city because everything beforehand as

much as it's it pains for ukrainians to

lose territory it pains for ukrainians

to lose settlement and have to fall back

a lot of these Villages and I cannot

show you footage are just uh smaller

villages with like maybe 5 10 houses

that have been reduced to dust by

Aviation so there is nothing to defend

so the big city of

pakros and we need to look at this very

very closely it's not a city as a

standalone so this is approximate

borders of pakros but you can see also

that there is another city you can see

by the layout that is also called myrat

so actually both pakros and

myrat they are not cities on itself it's

more of

a like a union between two cities so if

Russians are to capture pakros they need

to capture both pakros and mirat to

understand the significance of this you

must go on a Google Maps here you can

click on the town's name and then you

can click to Wikipedia to find out more

information about town here you can also

switch to the satellite view to see how

exactly that area looks like with

regards to the taller buildings and so

on and pakros is a city of used to be

60,000 people with an area of

29.5 square kilometers Mirad the second

part of this um Union between two cities

used to be

46,0 23 Square kilm so when you sum

these up let's there is also some place

in between so let's say it's 30 and 23

so it's 53 square kilometers in total

these two cities to put it in a

perspective the biggest city that Russia

captured in this type of war that

they're waging right now with the

attrici Warfare slowly moving

forward is

bahmut bahmut was a city of 71 1,000 and

an area of

41 Square kilom 41 and5 Square kilm when

you sum these two up then you realize

that they are bigger than bahmut by a

lot this is a big problem for Russian

forces because the only city that they

captured was bahmut and bahmut that was

no easy capture bahmut fell only

after gruesome gruesome fighting that I

remind you led to a demolition of the

Wagner force that no one is talking

about anymore because they're all dead

and then Rebellion going against Putin

it took shitloads of time and more

importantly it was the bloodiest battle

for the Russians

period bakut

was captured only after a long time

after Russians first tried to encircle

the

city where they were later stopped from

encircling the city and then going

through the city Square by square by

square destroying every inch of this

city and it took

forever so when we're talking about

pakros mirat this Union then if the

Russians just reach the outskirts of

City they are not capturing the city

they are not going through and just

capturing the city this is not a village

this is not just the name of the map if

we are expecting that maybe they will do

the quote unquote easy way then they

still need to do a lot of job trying to

encircle both on this area and on this

area and these two cities are wider than

bmud it's less compact so they need a

lot more Force

to go around this and a lot of forces

are required in curse I remind you so

even going around is still going to be a

challenge I'll remind you that Russians

still had the goal of capturing chif

Yar and chif Yar is still standing very

very strong remember they were trying to

go around the chif Yar and they were

stop both directions so Russians then

try to okay let's go through Chas ifar

and then Ukraine said

no the point that I'm getting at and I

know I'm hammering it way too much is

that even if Russians reach pavlograd

sorry not pav

pakros it's the target to the scale that

Russians have not yet faced at all it's

bigger than bahmut it's more challenging

the area is challenging the area that

they need to try if they want to do the

circl is challenging they are so far

from even threatening the capture of

pakros that it's going to be additional

year minimum where everything could

change and I want this to be understood

very clearly by everyone that watches

the channel That reaching pakros and

capturing pakros very very different

things then there was the topic that I

just want to quickly comment on with the

AL ations that it was supposedly some

ukrainians that were instigating an

attack against nordstream and it's not

proven like the only thing that I've

heard so far is that there is like some

ukrainians that decided to blow it up

but I have seen zero connections that it

was connected to the Ukrainian

government but even if it is connected

to Ukrainian government while I agree

with Peter Powell what I want to again

Hammer home with all of you guys is that

the the Nord streams should not have

been there in the first place the Nord

stream and presence of northstream and

people that promoted northstream and

built the northstream they are the

traitors to democracy they are the

people that helped Putin build this

regime they are the people that really

sold out all of the democracy all of the

Europe to the dictatorship so when we

say it's like oh ukrainians blew up the

North streams like these things were not

supposed to be there at all at all

period Then U mik one of the viewers and

subscribers of the channel really asked

me to give a shout out to a Polish

volunteer that does great job so I will

do this uh his name is aen on the

so please follow he's doing a

great job of delivering trucks but we

are also doing our part we want to

support you Ukraine I know Jake bro

started his program but I want to run

this campaign until the end of August

because I truly believe that we can do

more I really hope we can reach the

400,000 by the end of August in any case

I love you slav ukraini trust in

Ukrainian armed forces and I see you

next

[Music]

time and all the helpers let's unite CU

you great man BL you in Myers Ukraine m

ukra m we going to stop this